Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 13–16 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.6–21.5% 18.3–21.8% 17.8–22.3%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.6–21.5% 18.3–21.8% 17.8–22.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.5% 16.5–18.6% 16.2–18.9% 15.9–19.2% 15.4–19.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.4–13.8% 11.1–14.0% 10.7–14.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 6.5% 5.8–7.2% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–8.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 153 144–161 142–164 140–166 136–170
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 153 144–161 142–163 140–166 136–170
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 133 126–141 123–144 121–146 118–150
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 95 88–103 87–104 85–106 82–110
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 78–91 76–93 74–95 71–98
Die Linke 69 50 45–55 43–57 42–58 40–61
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 37–46 36–47 35–49 33–51

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0.1% 100%  
133 0.1% 99.9%  
134 0.2% 99.8%  
135 0.1% 99.7%  
136 0.2% 99.5%  
137 0.5% 99.3%  
138 0.3% 98.8%  
139 0.7% 98%  
140 0.8% 98%  
141 1.0% 97%  
142 2% 96%  
143 2% 94%  
144 5% 93%  
145 2% 87%  
146 7% 85%  
147 4% 78%  
148 4% 74%  
149 3% 70%  
150 2% 67%  
151 5% 65%  
152 4% 60%  
153 8% 55% Last Result, Median
154 8% 47%  
155 7% 40%  
156 7% 33%  
157 4% 25%  
158 6% 22%  
159 2% 16%  
160 3% 14%  
161 2% 11%  
162 1.3% 9%  
163 2% 7%  
164 1.0% 5%  
165 1.5% 4%  
166 0.7% 3%  
167 0.7% 2%  
168 0.8% 1.5%  
169 0.2% 0.7%  
170 0.2% 0.5%  
171 0.1% 0.3%  
172 0.1% 0.2%  
173 0% 0.2%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0.1% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.8%  
136 0.2% 99.6%  
137 0.3% 99.4%  
138 0.6% 99.0%  
139 0.7% 98%  
140 0.8% 98%  
141 1.5% 97%  
142 2% 95%  
143 2% 94%  
144 4% 92%  
145 3% 89%  
146 3% 86%  
147 6% 83%  
148 4% 78%  
149 4% 73%  
150 9% 69%  
151 4% 61%  
152 4% 57%  
153 9% 52% Median
154 5% 43%  
155 4% 38%  
156 7% 34%  
157 4% 27%  
158 4% 23%  
159 5% 19%  
160 2% 14%  
161 3% 12%  
162 3% 9%  
163 1.3% 6%  
164 1.2% 5%  
165 1.2% 4%  
166 0.6% 3%  
167 0.7% 2%  
168 0.5% 1.3%  
169 0.2% 0.8%  
170 0.3% 0.6%  
171 0.1% 0.4%  
172 0.1% 0.2%  
173 0.1% 0.2%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.2% 99.7%  
118 0.3% 99.5%  
119 0.4% 99.3%  
120 0.5% 98.8%  
121 0.9% 98%  
122 1.0% 97%  
123 2% 96%  
124 2% 95%  
125 3% 93%  
126 3% 90%  
127 4% 87%  
128 5% 83%  
129 4% 77%  
130 6% 73%  
131 6% 67%  
132 6% 61%  
133 6% 55% Median
134 7% 49%  
135 5% 42%  
136 7% 37%  
137 4% 30%  
138 5% 26%  
139 5% 21%  
140 3% 16%  
141 3% 12%  
142 2% 10%  
143 2% 8%  
144 1.3% 5%  
145 1.2% 4%  
146 0.9% 3%  
147 0.5% 2%  
148 0.5% 1.4%  
149 0.3% 0.9%  
150 0.2% 0.6%  
151 0.1% 0.4%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.3% 99.6%  
83 0.3% 99.2%  
84 1.0% 98.9%  
85 1.0% 98%  
86 2% 97%  
87 2% 95%  
88 3% 93%  
89 4% 90%  
90 4% 86%  
91 5% 82%  
92 7% 78%  
93 7% 70%  
94 6% 63%  
95 7% 57% Median
96 8% 50%  
97 8% 42%  
98 6% 35%  
99 5% 29%  
100 6% 24%  
101 5% 18%  
102 3% 13%  
103 3% 10%  
104 3% 7%  
105 2% 5%  
106 0.9% 3%  
107 0.8% 2%  
108 0.6% 2%  
109 0.4% 1.0%  
110 0.2% 0.6%  
111 0.1% 0.4%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 0.4% 99.4%  
73 0.7% 99.0%  
74 1.1% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 2% 96%  
77 3% 94%  
78 4% 90%  
79 4% 86%  
80 7% 82%  
81 5% 75%  
82 8% 70%  
83 7% 61%  
84 8% 54% Median
85 8% 46%  
86 6% 38%  
87 8% 32%  
88 5% 24%  
89 5% 19%  
90 4% 15%  
91 3% 10%  
92 2% 8%  
93 2% 5%  
94 1.2% 4% Last Result
95 1.0% 3%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.0%  
98 0.3% 0.6%  
99 0.1% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 0.6% 99.6%  
41 0.7% 99.0%  
42 1.4% 98%  
43 3% 97%  
44 3% 94%  
45 7% 91%  
46 5% 84%  
47 10% 79%  
48 9% 69%  
49 8% 60%  
50 14% 52% Median
51 6% 38%  
52 10% 32%  
53 6% 22%  
54 5% 16%  
55 4% 12%  
56 2% 8%  
57 2% 6%  
58 1.3% 3%  
59 0.8% 2%  
60 0.7% 1.2%  
61 0.2% 0.6%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.6% 99.6%  
34 1.3% 99.0%  
35 2% 98%  
36 4% 96%  
37 6% 92%  
38 7% 85%  
39 11% 78%  
40 11% 67%  
41 11% 56% Median
42 10% 45%  
43 10% 35%  
44 8% 26%  
45 5% 18%  
46 4% 12% Last Result
47 3% 8%  
48 2% 5%  
49 1.2% 3%  
50 0.8% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.9%  
52 0.2% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 480 100% 470–490 468–492 465–494 460–499
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 442 100% 432–452 429–454 427–457 422–462
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 423 100% 412–433 410–435 407–438 402–444
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 381 100% 371–392 368–394 365–397 360–402
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 373 99.1% 363–384 360–387 358–389 353–394
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 346 17% 336–357 333–359 331–362 326–368
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 336 0.9% 325–346 322–349 320–351 315–356
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 327 0.1% 317–337 314–340 312–343 307–348
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 289 0% 280–300 277–303 274–305 269–310
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 286 0% 276–296 273–299 271–302 266–307
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 278 0% 268–288 265–291 262–293 258–299
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 248 0% 238–258 236–261 233–263 228–268
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 202 0% 193–211 190–214 188–216 183–221

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
455 0% 100%  
456 0.1% 99.9%  
457 0.1% 99.9%  
458 0.1% 99.8%  
459 0.1% 99.7%  
460 0.2% 99.6%  
461 0.3% 99.4%  
462 0.3% 99.1%  
463 0.3% 98.8%  
464 0.7% 98%  
465 0.7% 98%  
466 0.9% 97% Last Result
467 1.3% 96%  
468 1.3% 95%  
469 2% 94%  
470 2% 92%  
471 3% 90%  
472 3% 86%  
473 4% 84%  
474 4% 80%  
475 4% 76%  
476 5% 72%  
477 5% 67%  
478 6% 62%  
479 3% 56%  
480 7% 52% Median
481 5% 45%  
482 4% 40%  
483 5% 36%  
484 4% 31%  
485 5% 27%  
486 3% 22%  
487 4% 19%  
488 2% 15%  
489 2% 13%  
490 2% 10%  
491 2% 8%  
492 1.4% 6%  
493 1.3% 5%  
494 0.9% 3%  
495 0.6% 2%  
496 0.5% 2%  
497 0.3% 1.3%  
498 0.3% 0.9%  
499 0.2% 0.7%  
500 0.1% 0.5%  
501 0.1% 0.4%  
502 0.1% 0.3%  
503 0% 0.2%  
504 0% 0.2%  
505 0% 0.2%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0.1%  
513 0% 0.1%  
514 0% 0.1%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0.1%  
517 0% 0.1%  
518 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0.1% 99.9%  
420 0.1% 99.8%  
421 0.1% 99.7%  
422 0.2% 99.5%  
423 0.3% 99.3%  
424 0.3% 99.1%  
425 0.6% 98.7%  
426 0.7% 98%  
427 0.8% 98%  
428 1.2% 97%  
429 1.4% 95%  
430 1.3% 94%  
431 2% 93%  
432 2% 91%  
433 3% 89%  
434 3% 86%  
435 4% 83%  
436 3% 80%  
437 4% 76%  
438 7% 72%  
439 4% 66%  
440 5% 62%  
441 5% 57%  
442 5% 52% Median
443 5% 47%  
444 5% 42%  
445 5% 37%  
446 4% 33%  
447 4% 28%  
448 4% 25%  
449 5% 21%  
450 3% 16%  
451 2% 13%  
452 2% 11%  
453 3% 9%  
454 1.3% 6%  
455 1.2% 5%  
456 0.8% 4%  
457 0.8% 3%  
458 0.5% 2%  
459 0.4% 2%  
460 0.4% 1.2%  
461 0.2% 0.8%  
462 0.2% 0.6%  
463 0.1% 0.5%  
464 0.1% 0.3%  
465 0.1% 0.3%  
466 0% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.2%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0.1% 100%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0.1% 99.8%  
401 0.2% 99.8%  
402 0.2% 99.6%  
403 0.2% 99.4%  
404 0.2% 99.2%  
405 0.4% 99.0%  
406 0.6% 98.6%  
407 1.1% 98%  
408 0.6% 97%  
409 0.7% 96%  
410 2% 96%  
411 2% 94%  
412 2% 92%  
413 1.3% 90%  
414 2% 89%  
415 4% 87%  
416 4% 83%  
417 4% 79%  
418 2% 75%  
419 5% 73%  
420 6% 68%  
421 8% 62%  
422 4% 55% Median
423 4% 50%  
424 5% 47%  
425 7% 41%  
426 4% 34%  
427 3% 30%  
428 3% 27%  
429 4% 24%  
430 5% 20%  
431 3% 15%  
432 2% 12%  
433 2% 10%  
434 2% 9%  
435 2% 6%  
436 1.0% 5%  
437 0.5% 4%  
438 0.6% 3%  
439 0.9% 2%  
440 0.4% 2%  
441 0.2% 1.1%  
442 0.2% 0.9%  
443 0.2% 0.7%  
444 0.2% 0.5%  
445 0.1% 0.4%  
446 0.1% 0.3%  
447 0% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.8%  
360 0.2% 99.7%  
361 0.2% 99.5%  
362 0.2% 99.3%  
363 0.5% 99.1%  
364 0.6% 98.6%  
365 0.6% 98%  
366 0.4% 97%  
367 0.9% 97%  
368 1.2% 96%  
369 2% 95%  
370 0.8% 93%  
371 2% 92%  
372 3% 90%  
373 4% 87%  
374 2% 84%  
375 3% 81%  
376 4% 78%  
377 6% 74%  
378 3% 68%  
379 4% 65%  
380 6% 61%  
381 6% 55% Median
382 3% 49%  
383 6% 46%  
384 4% 40%  
385 6% 36%  
386 4% 29%  
387 3% 26%  
388 4% 22%  
389 4% 18%  
390 3% 14%  
391 2% 12%  
392 2% 10%  
393 2% 8%  
394 1.4% 6%  
395 0.9% 5%  
396 1.0% 4%  
397 0.7% 3%  
398 0.6% 2%  
399 0.3% 1.5%  
400 0.3% 1.2%  
401 0.2% 0.9%  
402 0.2% 0.7%  
403 0.1% 0.5%  
404 0.1% 0.4%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.7%  
353 0.2% 99.6%  
354 0.2% 99.3%  
355 0.3% 99.1% Majority
356 0.5% 98.8%  
357 0.6% 98%  
358 0.8% 98%  
359 0.8% 97%  
360 1.2% 96%  
361 2% 95%  
362 1.0% 93%  
363 2% 92%  
364 2% 89%  
365 3% 87%  
366 3% 84%  
367 4% 81%  
368 4% 77%  
369 3% 73%  
370 7% 70%  
371 4% 63%  
372 4% 59%  
373 6% 55% Median
374 3% 49%  
375 6% 46%  
376 5% 40%  
377 4% 35%  
378 5% 31%  
379 4% 26%  
380 2% 22%  
381 4% 19%  
382 3% 16%  
383 1.5% 13%  
384 3% 11%  
385 1.2% 8%  
386 2% 7%  
387 1.3% 5%  
388 0.9% 4%  
389 0.8% 3%  
390 0.7% 2%  
391 0.4% 2%  
392 0.2% 1.2%  
393 0.3% 1.0%  
394 0.2% 0.7%  
395 0.1% 0.5%  
396 0.1% 0.4%  
397 0.1% 0.3%  
398 0% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.7%  
326 0.2% 99.6%  
327 0.2% 99.3%  
328 0.3% 99.1%  
329 0.6% 98.8%  
330 0.7% 98%  
331 1.0% 98%  
332 0.8% 97%  
333 1.5% 96%  
334 1.2% 94%  
335 2% 93%  
336 2% 91%  
337 2% 89%  
338 3% 87%  
339 3% 84%  
340 3% 81%  
341 4% 78%  
342 7% 74%  
343 4% 67%  
344 4% 63%  
345 5% 58%  
346 4% 53%  
347 5% 49% Median
348 3% 44%  
349 5% 40%  
350 4% 35%  
351 3% 31%  
352 5% 28%  
353 2% 23%  
354 4% 20%  
355 3% 17% Majority
356 3% 13%  
357 2% 10%  
358 1.5% 8%  
359 2% 7%  
360 1.1% 5%  
361 0.8% 4%  
362 0.8% 3%  
363 0.5% 2%  
364 0.4% 2%  
365 0.4% 1.4%  
366 0.3% 1.0%  
367 0.1% 0.6%  
368 0.1% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.4%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.8%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.7%  
314 0.1% 99.6%  
315 0.2% 99.5%  
316 0.3% 99.3%  
317 0.2% 99.0%  
318 0.4% 98.8%  
319 0.7% 98%  
320 0.8% 98%  
321 0.9% 97%  
322 1.3% 96%  
323 2% 95%  
324 1.2% 93%  
325 3% 92%  
326 1.5% 89%  
327 3% 87%  
328 4% 84%  
329 2% 81%  
330 4% 78%  
331 5% 74%  
332 4% 69%  
333 5% 65%  
334 6% 60%  
335 3% 54%  
336 6% 51% Median
337 4% 45%  
338 4% 41%  
339 7% 37%  
340 3% 30%  
341 4% 27%  
342 4% 23%  
343 3% 19%  
344 3% 16%  
345 2% 13%  
346 2% 11%  
347 1.0% 8%  
348 2% 7%  
349 1.2% 5%  
350 0.8% 4%  
351 0.8% 3%  
352 0.6% 2%  
353 0.5% 2%  
354 0.3% 1.2%  
355 0.2% 0.9% Majority
356 0.2% 0.7%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.7%  
307 0.2% 99.6%  
308 0.2% 99.4%  
309 0.5% 99.1%  
310 0.3% 98.6%  
311 0.6% 98%  
312 1.0% 98%  
313 0.7% 97% Last Result
314 1.2% 96%  
315 2% 95%  
316 2% 93%  
317 1.3% 90%  
318 3% 89%  
319 3% 86%  
320 3% 83%  
321 3% 80%  
322 5% 78%  
323 5% 72%  
324 3% 67%  
325 5% 64%  
326 6% 59%  
327 5% 53% Median
328 4% 48%  
329 6% 44%  
330 6% 39%  
331 3% 33%  
332 4% 30%  
333 5% 26%  
334 3% 21%  
335 2% 18%  
336 4% 16%  
337 2% 12%  
338 1.1% 10%  
339 2% 9%  
340 2% 7%  
341 0.7% 5%  
342 0.6% 4%  
343 0.9% 3%  
344 0.7% 2%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.3% 1.3%  
347 0.4% 1.0%  
348 0.1% 0.6%  
349 0.1% 0.5%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.7%  
269 0.3% 99.6%  
270 0.2% 99.4%  
271 0.2% 99.2%  
272 0.4% 99.0%  
273 0.9% 98.6%  
274 0.9% 98%  
275 0.5% 97%  
276 1.1% 96%  
277 3% 95%  
278 1.2% 93%  
279 1.1% 91%  
280 3% 90%  
281 3% 87%  
282 3% 84%  
283 2% 81%  
284 4% 78%  
285 7% 75%  
286 4% 67%  
287 4% 63%  
288 4% 59%  
289 7% 55% Median
290 4% 48%  
291 3% 44%  
292 7% 41%  
293 6% 35%  
294 4% 29%  
295 3% 25%  
296 4% 22%  
297 4% 18%  
298 2% 14%  
299 2% 12%  
300 3% 11%  
301 1.4% 7%  
302 0.8% 6%  
303 1.0% 5%  
304 1.5% 4%  
305 0.8% 3%  
306 0.4% 2%  
307 0.3% 2%  
308 0.5% 1.2%  
309 0.2% 0.7%  
310 0.1% 0.6%  
311 0.1% 0.5%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0.1% 0.2%  
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.9%  
264 0.1% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.7%  
266 0.2% 99.5%  
267 0.4% 99.4%  
268 0.4% 99.0%  
269 0.3% 98.6%  
270 0.6% 98%  
271 1.0% 98%  
272 1.0% 97%  
273 1.4% 96%  
274 1.1% 94%  
275 2% 93%  
276 4% 91%  
277 2% 87%  
278 2% 85%  
279 3% 83%  
280 5% 80%  
281 4% 75%  
282 3% 71%  
283 4% 68%  
284 7% 63%  
285 4% 56%  
286 5% 53% Median
287 3% 47%  
288 5% 44%  
289 8% 39%  
290 3% 30%  
291 3% 28%  
292 5% 25%  
293 3% 19%  
294 3% 16%  
295 2% 13%  
296 2% 11%  
297 3% 10%  
298 1.2% 7%  
299 1.2% 5%  
300 0.9% 4%  
301 0.6% 3%  
302 0.9% 3%  
303 0.3% 2%  
304 0.3% 1.4%  
305 0.3% 1.1%  
306 0.1% 0.7%  
307 0.2% 0.6%  
308 0.1% 0.4%  
309 0.1% 0.3%  
310 0.1% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.1%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.7%  
258 0.2% 99.6%  
259 0.2% 99.4%  
260 0.4% 99.1%  
261 0.4% 98.8%  
262 0.9% 98%  
263 0.8% 97%  
264 0.7% 97%  
265 1.1% 96%  
266 2% 95%  
267 2% 93%  
268 2% 91%  
269 3% 89%  
270 3% 86%  
271 3% 83%  
272 4% 80%  
273 5% 76%  
274 6% 71%  
275 4% 65%  
276 6% 62%  
277 3% 56%  
278 5% 53% Median
279 6% 47%  
280 4% 41%  
281 6% 38%  
282 2% 31%  
283 5% 29%  
284 3% 24%  
285 4% 21%  
286 3% 17%  
287 4% 14%  
288 2% 11%  
289 2% 9%  
290 1.4% 7%  
291 1.5% 5%  
292 0.9% 4%  
293 0.7% 3%  
294 0.7% 2%  
295 0.3% 2%  
296 0.4% 1.4%  
297 0.3% 1.0%  
298 0.2% 0.7%  
299 0.2% 0.5%  
300 0.1% 0.3%  
301 0.1% 0.3%  
302 0.1% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0.2% 99.7%  
229 0.2% 99.5%  
230 0.3% 99.2%  
231 0.4% 98.9%  
232 0.7% 98.6%  
233 0.8% 98% Last Result
234 0.7% 97%  
235 1.2% 96%  
236 2% 95%  
237 2% 93%  
238 3% 92%  
239 3% 89%  
240 2% 86%  
241 3% 84%  
242 5% 81%  
243 4% 76%  
244 3% 72%  
245 5% 68%  
246 5% 63%  
247 5% 58%  
248 6% 53% Median
249 6% 47%  
250 5% 41%  
251 4% 36%  
252 4% 33%  
253 5% 29%  
254 3% 24%  
255 3% 20%  
256 3% 17%  
257 2% 14%  
258 3% 11%  
259 2% 9%  
260 2% 7%  
261 1.4% 5%  
262 0.6% 4%  
263 0.7% 3%  
264 0.6% 2%  
265 0.5% 2%  
266 0.3% 1.1%  
267 0.3% 0.8%  
268 0.1% 0.6%  
269 0.1% 0.5%  
270 0.1% 0.3%  
271 0.1% 0.2%  
272 0.1% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.8%  
180 0% 99.8%  
181 0.1% 99.8%  
182 0.1% 99.7%  
183 0.1% 99.6%  
184 0.3% 99.5%  
185 0.3% 99.2%  
186 0.4% 98.9%  
187 0.8% 98%  
188 0.6% 98%  
189 0.7% 97%  
190 2% 96%  
191 2% 95%  
192 2% 92%  
193 2% 91%  
194 4% 89%  
195 3% 85%  
196 4% 82%  
197 5% 78%  
198 3% 73%  
199 4% 70%  
200 6% 65%  
201 5% 59%  
202 6% 54%  
203 5% 48% Median
204 6% 43%  
205 5% 37%  
206 4% 32%  
207 6% 29%  
208 3% 23%  
209 4% 20%  
210 5% 16%  
211 2% 12%  
212 2% 10%  
213 2% 8%  
214 1.1% 6%  
215 1.0% 5%  
216 1.2% 3%  
217 0.5% 2%  
218 0.4% 2%  
219 0.4% 1.4%  
220 0.4% 1.0%  
221 0.2% 0.6%  
222 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
223 0.1% 0.3%  
224 0% 0.2%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations