Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 5–17 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 22.4% 20.8–24.1% 20.3–24.6% 19.9–25.1% 19.2–25.9%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 19.5% 18.0–21.2% 17.6–21.7% 17.2–22.1% 16.5–22.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.5% 16.0–19.1% 15.6–19.6% 15.3–20.0% 14.6–20.7%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.5–8.6% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 168 155–180 152–183 149–187 143–194
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 147 135–159 131–162 129–165 123–171
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 131 120–142 117–146 114–149 109–155
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 73–92 71–95 69–98 65–103
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 83 74–93 71–95 69–98 65–102
Die Linke 69 56 49–65 46–67 45–69 42–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 35–49 34–51 32–53 30–56

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.1% 99.7%  
143 0.1% 99.6%  
144 0.2% 99.5%  
145 0.2% 99.3%  
146 0.3% 99.1%  
147 0.4% 98.7%  
148 0.4% 98%  
149 0.7% 98%  
150 0.9% 97%  
151 1.0% 96%  
152 1.0% 95%  
153 1.4% 94%  
154 2% 93%  
155 2% 91%  
156 2% 89%  
157 3% 87%  
158 3% 84%  
159 3% 81%  
160 3% 79%  
161 3% 75%  
162 3% 72%  
163 4% 70%  
164 4% 66%  
165 3% 62%  
166 4% 59%  
167 4% 55%  
168 5% 51% Median
169 4% 46%  
170 4% 42%  
171 4% 39%  
172 4% 35%  
173 3% 30%  
174 3% 27%  
175 4% 24%  
176 3% 20%  
177 2% 17%  
178 2% 15%  
179 2% 13%  
180 2% 10%  
181 2% 9%  
182 1.1% 7%  
183 1.3% 6%  
184 0.8% 5%  
185 0.8% 4%  
186 0.6% 3%  
187 0.6% 3%  
188 0.4% 2%  
189 0.4% 2%  
190 0.2% 1.3%  
191 0.3% 1.1%  
192 0.2% 0.8%  
193 0.1% 0.6%  
194 0.2% 0.5%  
195 0.1% 0.3%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1% Last Result
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.8%  
123 0.2% 99.7%  
124 0.2% 99.5%  
125 0.3% 99.3%  
126 0.3% 99.0%  
127 0.3% 98.7%  
128 0.4% 98%  
129 0.7% 98%  
130 1.0% 97%  
131 1.4% 96%  
132 2% 95%  
133 2% 93%  
134 1.3% 92%  
135 1.5% 90%  
136 2% 89%  
137 2% 87%  
138 3% 84%  
139 4% 81%  
140 4% 77%  
141 3% 73%  
142 4% 71%  
143 3% 67%  
144 5% 64%  
145 2% 58%  
146 6% 56%  
147 3% 50% Median
148 6% 47%  
149 2% 42%  
150 6% 39%  
151 2% 33%  
152 6% 31%  
153 2% 25% Last Result
154 5% 23%  
155 2% 19%  
156 2% 17%  
157 1.3% 14%  
158 2% 13%  
159 2% 11%  
160 2% 9%  
161 1.1% 6%  
162 1.1% 5%  
163 0.6% 4%  
164 0.6% 4%  
165 0.5% 3%  
166 0.5% 2%  
167 0.5% 2%  
168 0.5% 1.4%  
169 0.3% 1.0%  
170 0.2% 0.7%  
171 0.1% 0.5%  
172 0.1% 0.4%  
173 0.1% 0.4%  
174 0% 0.3%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.1% 99.7%  
109 0.2% 99.6%  
110 0.2% 99.4%  
111 0.3% 99.2%  
112 0.3% 98.9%  
113 0.6% 98.6%  
114 0.6% 98%  
115 0.8% 97%  
116 1.2% 97%  
117 1.2% 95%  
118 1.5% 94%  
119 2% 93%  
120 2% 91%  
121 2% 88%  
122 3% 86%  
123 3% 83%  
124 3% 80%  
125 4% 77%  
126 4% 74%  
127 5% 70%  
128 4% 65%  
129 5% 61%  
130 5% 56%  
131 4% 51% Median
132 4% 47%  
133 4% 43%  
134 4% 39%  
135 4% 35%  
136 4% 31%  
137 4% 28%  
138 3% 24%  
139 3% 21%  
140 3% 17%  
141 2% 14%  
142 2% 12%  
143 2% 10%  
144 1.4% 8%  
145 1.4% 7%  
146 1.0% 6%  
147 1.0% 5%  
148 0.7% 4%  
149 0.6% 3%  
150 0.6% 2%  
151 0.4% 2%  
152 0.3% 1.2%  
153 0.2% 0.9%  
154 0.2% 0.7%  
155 0.1% 0.5%  
156 0.1% 0.4%  
157 0.1% 0.3%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.1% 99.7%  
65 0.2% 99.6%  
66 0.3% 99.4%  
67 0.6% 99.1%  
68 0.8% 98.5%  
69 0.8% 98%  
70 1.3% 97%  
71 1.3% 96%  
72 2% 94%  
73 3% 92%  
74 3% 90%  
75 3% 87%  
76 3% 83%  
77 5% 80%  
78 4% 76%  
79 5% 72%  
80 6% 66%  
81 5% 61%  
82 6% 56%  
83 5% 51% Median
84 6% 46%  
85 5% 40%  
86 4% 34%  
87 5% 30%  
88 3% 25%  
89 5% 22%  
90 3% 17%  
91 3% 15%  
92 2% 12%  
93 2% 9%  
94 2% 8% Last Result
95 1.1% 6%  
96 1.1% 5%  
97 0.9% 4%  
98 0.6% 3%  
99 0.6% 2%  
100 0.4% 1.4%  
101 0.3% 1.0%  
102 0.2% 0.7%  
103 0.1% 0.5%  
104 0.1% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.2% 99.6%  
66 0.3% 99.4%  
67 0.4% 99.1%  
68 0.8% 98.7%  
69 1.0% 98%  
70 1.2% 97%  
71 2% 96%  
72 2% 94%  
73 2% 92%  
74 3% 90%  
75 3% 88%  
76 4% 84%  
77 4% 80%  
78 5% 76%  
79 5% 71%  
80 4% 66% Last Result
81 5% 62%  
82 4% 57%  
83 5% 53% Median
84 5% 48%  
85 6% 43%  
86 6% 37%  
87 5% 31%  
88 4% 26%  
89 3% 22%  
90 3% 18%  
91 3% 16%  
92 2% 13%  
93 3% 11%  
94 2% 8%  
95 1.5% 6%  
96 1.2% 5%  
97 0.8% 3%  
98 0.6% 3%  
99 0.5% 2%  
100 0.4% 1.5%  
101 0.3% 1.1%  
102 0.2% 0.7%  
103 0.1% 0.5%  
104 0.1% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.7%  
42 0.4% 99.5%  
43 0.5% 99.1%  
44 0.9% 98.6%  
45 1.4% 98%  
46 2% 96%  
47 2% 95%  
48 2% 93%  
49 4% 91%  
50 3% 87%  
51 6% 84%  
52 4% 78%  
53 7% 73%  
54 5% 66%  
55 9% 61%  
56 6% 52% Median
57 6% 46%  
58 5% 40%  
59 5% 34%  
60 5% 30%  
61 4% 24%  
62 4% 20%  
63 3% 16%  
64 3% 13%  
65 2% 10%  
66 3% 8%  
67 0.9% 5%  
68 1.4% 4%  
69 0.6% 3% Last Result
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.4% 1.4%  
72 0.3% 1.0%  
73 0.2% 0.7%  
74 0.1% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.2% 99.8%  
30 0.4% 99.6%  
31 0.8% 99.2%  
32 1.3% 98%  
33 2% 97%  
34 3% 95%  
35 4% 92%  
36 6% 89%  
37 7% 83%  
38 7% 75%  
39 7% 68%  
40 7% 61%  
41 7% 54% Median
42 7% 48%  
43 6% 40%  
44 5% 34%  
45 4% 29%  
46 5% 24% Last Result
47 4% 19%  
48 4% 15%  
49 2% 11%  
50 2% 9%  
51 2% 6%  
52 2% 4%  
53 1.1% 3%  
54 0.6% 2%  
55 0.5% 1.1%  
56 0.2% 0.7%  
57 0.2% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 487 100% 474–500 469–504 466–508 459–514
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 439 100% 425–453 421–457 417–460 410–467
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 423 100% 409–438 405–441 401–445 394–452
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 375 96% 360–389 356–393 353–397 345–405
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 361 70% 345–375 341–379 338–383 331–389
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 356 54% 341–370 337–375 334–378 327–385
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 340 11% 325–356 322–360 318–363 311–370
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 334 4% 320–349 316–353 312–356 304–364
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 291 0% 278–307 274–311 270–315 264–322
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 294 0% 279–308 272–311 270–313 264–322
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 278 0% 263–292 259–296 256–300 249–307
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 230 0% 215–243 212–247 208–250 202–257
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 203 0% 190–216 186–220 183–224 177–230

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
452 0% 100%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0% 99.9%  
455 0% 99.9%  
456 0% 99.8%  
457 0.1% 99.8%  
458 0.1% 99.7%  
459 0.1% 99.6%  
460 0.2% 99.5%  
461 0.2% 99.3%  
462 0.2% 99.1%  
463 0.4% 98.9%  
464 0.5% 98.5%  
465 0.5% 98%  
466 0.5% 98% Last Result
467 0.5% 97%  
468 0.8% 97%  
469 0.9% 96%  
470 1.1% 95%  
471 0.9% 94%  
472 1.1% 93%  
473 1.4% 92%  
474 2% 90%  
475 2% 88%  
476 2% 86%  
477 2% 84%  
478 2% 82%  
479 4% 79%  
480 4% 75%  
481 3% 71%  
482 2% 68%  
483 3% 66%  
484 3% 62%  
485 4% 59%  
486 3% 55%  
487 3% 52% Median
488 4% 49%  
489 3% 45%  
490 4% 43%  
491 5% 39%  
492 3% 34%  
493 3% 31%  
494 5% 29%  
495 3% 24%  
496 4% 21%  
497 2% 18%  
498 2% 15%  
499 2% 13%  
500 2% 11%  
501 2% 9%  
502 1.2% 8%  
503 0.9% 7%  
504 1.0% 6%  
505 0.8% 5%  
506 0.7% 4%  
507 0.6% 3%  
508 0.6% 3%  
509 0.5% 2%  
510 0.3% 2%  
511 0.3% 1.3%  
512 0.3% 1.0%  
513 0.2% 0.7%  
514 0.1% 0.5%  
515 0.1% 0.4%  
516 0.1% 0.3%  
517 0.1% 0.3%  
518 0% 0.2%  
519 0% 0.1%  
520 0% 0.1%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0.1%  
524 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.8%  
408 0.1% 99.8%  
409 0.1% 99.7%  
410 0.1% 99.6%  
411 0.1% 99.4%  
412 0.2% 99.3%  
413 0.3% 99.1%  
414 0.3% 98.9%  
415 0.4% 98.5%  
416 0.5% 98%  
417 0.6% 98%  
418 0.6% 97%  
419 0.8% 96%  
420 0.7% 96%  
421 0.8% 95%  
422 1.1% 94%  
423 2% 93%  
424 0.9% 91%  
425 2% 90%  
426 3% 89%  
427 2% 86%  
428 2% 84%  
429 3% 83%  
430 3% 80%  
431 3% 77%  
432 3% 74%  
433 2% 71%  
434 3% 69%  
435 3% 65%  
436 4% 62%  
437 3% 58%  
438 4% 55%  
439 4% 51% Median
440 4% 47%  
441 3% 43%  
442 3% 40%  
443 3% 37%  
444 3% 34%  
445 2% 31%  
446 3% 29%  
447 4% 25%  
448 2% 21%  
449 3% 20%  
450 3% 17%  
451 2% 14%  
452 2% 12%  
453 1.3% 11%  
454 1.0% 9%  
455 1.4% 8%  
456 2% 7%  
457 0.9% 5%  
458 0.6% 4%  
459 0.9% 4%  
460 0.6% 3%  
461 0.4% 2%  
462 0.3% 2%  
463 0.3% 2%  
464 0.4% 1.3%  
465 0.2% 0.9%  
466 0.1% 0.7%  
467 0.1% 0.6%  
468 0.1% 0.5%  
469 0.1% 0.3%  
470 0.1% 0.3%  
471 0% 0.2%  
472 0% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.8%  
393 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
394 0.2% 99.6%  
395 0.2% 99.4%  
396 0.2% 99.3%  
397 0.2% 99.1%  
398 0.3% 98.9%  
399 0.3% 98.5%  
400 0.5% 98%  
401 0.4% 98%  
402 0.5% 97%  
403 0.6% 97%  
404 0.9% 96%  
405 1.0% 95%  
406 1.0% 94%  
407 1.2% 93%  
408 2% 92%  
409 2% 91%  
410 2% 89%  
411 2% 87%  
412 2% 85%  
413 2% 83%  
414 2% 80%  
415 3% 78%  
416 3% 75%  
417 3% 73%  
418 3% 70%  
419 2% 67%  
420 3% 65%  
421 5% 62%  
422 3% 57%  
423 4% 54% Median
424 4% 50%  
425 4% 45%  
426 3% 41%  
427 3% 38%  
428 3% 35%  
429 4% 32%  
430 3% 28%  
431 2% 25%  
432 2% 23%  
433 2% 20%  
434 2% 18%  
435 2% 16%  
436 2% 14%  
437 2% 12%  
438 2% 11%  
439 1.3% 9%  
440 2% 7%  
441 1.0% 6%  
442 0.7% 5%  
443 0.7% 4%  
444 0.8% 4%  
445 0.5% 3%  
446 0.3% 2%  
447 0.4% 2%  
448 0.3% 1.5%  
449 0.3% 1.2%  
450 0.1% 0.9%  
451 0.2% 0.8%  
452 0.1% 0.6%  
453 0.1% 0.4%  
454 0.1% 0.4%  
455 0.1% 0.3%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.8%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0.1% 99.6%  
346 0.1% 99.5%  
347 0.2% 99.4%  
348 0.2% 99.2%  
349 0.2% 99.0%  
350 0.3% 98.7%  
351 0.4% 98%  
352 0.5% 98%  
353 0.6% 98%  
354 0.5% 97%  
355 0.9% 96% Majority
356 0.8% 95%  
357 0.9% 95%  
358 1.2% 94%  
359 1.2% 93%  
360 2% 91%  
361 2% 89%  
362 2% 88%  
363 2% 86%  
364 1.4% 84%  
365 3% 82%  
366 2% 80%  
367 3% 77%  
368 4% 74%  
369 2% 70%  
370 2% 68%  
371 3% 65%  
372 4% 62%  
373 3% 58%  
374 4% 55%  
375 3% 50% Median
376 3% 47%  
377 2% 44%  
378 4% 42%  
379 4% 38%  
380 3% 34%  
381 3% 31%  
382 3% 28%  
383 2% 25%  
384 2% 23%  
385 3% 21%  
386 3% 18%  
387 3% 16%  
388 2% 13%  
389 1.3% 11%  
390 1.2% 10%  
391 1.2% 9%  
392 1.5% 8%  
393 1.3% 6%  
394 0.9% 5%  
395 0.5% 4%  
396 0.6% 3%  
397 0.5% 3%  
398 0.4% 2%  
399 0.5% 2%  
400 0.3% 2%  
401 0.2% 1.2%  
402 0.2% 0.9%  
403 0.1% 0.8%  
404 0.1% 0.6%  
405 0.2% 0.5%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.1% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.9%  
328 0.1% 99.8%  
329 0.1% 99.7%  
330 0.1% 99.7%  
331 0.2% 99.6%  
332 0.1% 99.4%  
333 0.2% 99.3%  
334 0.2% 99.1%  
335 0.3% 98.9%  
336 0.3% 98.5%  
337 0.5% 98%  
338 0.6% 98%  
339 0.7% 97%  
340 0.8% 96%  
341 0.9% 96%  
342 1.1% 95%  
343 1.2% 94%  
344 1.1% 92%  
345 1.3% 91%  
346 2% 90%  
347 1.1% 88%  
348 2% 87%  
349 2% 84%  
350 3% 83%  
351 2% 80%  
352 2% 78%  
353 2% 76%  
354 3% 73%  
355 3% 70% Majority
356 3% 67%  
357 3% 65%  
358 3% 62%  
359 3% 59%  
360 3% 56%  
361 3% 53% Median
362 3% 50%  
363 4% 47%  
364 3% 43%  
365 3% 40%  
366 5% 37%  
367 2% 32%  
368 4% 30%  
369 3% 26%  
370 2% 23%  
371 3% 21%  
372 2% 18%  
373 2% 16%  
374 2% 14%  
375 2% 12%  
376 2% 10%  
377 1.1% 8%  
378 1.3% 7%  
379 1.0% 6%  
380 0.8% 5%  
381 0.7% 4%  
382 0.7% 3%  
383 0.5% 3%  
384 0.3% 2%  
385 0.4% 2%  
386 0.2% 1.3%  
387 0.3% 1.1%  
388 0.2% 0.8%  
389 0.1% 0.6%  
390 0.1% 0.5%  
391 0.1% 0.4%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.7%  
326 0.1% 99.6%  
327 0.1% 99.5%  
328 0.2% 99.4%  
329 0.2% 99.2%  
330 0.2% 99.0%  
331 0.3% 98.8%  
332 0.5% 98.5%  
333 0.4% 98%  
334 0.6% 98%  
335 0.7% 97%  
336 0.7% 96%  
337 0.8% 96%  
338 1.2% 95%  
339 1.1% 94%  
340 1.3% 93%  
341 2% 91%  
342 1.3% 89%  
343 2% 88%  
344 2% 86%  
345 2% 83%  
346 3% 82%  
347 2% 79%  
348 3% 77%  
349 3% 74%  
350 3% 71%  
351 3% 68%  
352 4% 65%  
353 3% 61%  
354 4% 58%  
355 3% 54% Majority
356 3% 51% Median
357 4% 48%  
358 3% 44%  
359 3% 41%  
360 3% 37%  
361 3% 34%  
362 3% 31%  
363 3% 28%  
364 2% 25%  
365 3% 23%  
366 2% 20%  
367 2% 17%  
368 2% 15%  
369 2% 13%  
370 1.4% 11%  
371 1.4% 10%  
372 1.4% 9%  
373 1.1% 7%  
374 0.8% 6%  
375 1.0% 5%  
376 0.7% 4%  
377 0.5% 4%  
378 0.6% 3%  
379 0.4% 2%  
380 0.5% 2%  
381 0.2% 2%  
382 0.3% 1.3%  
383 0.2% 1.0%  
384 0.2% 0.8%  
385 0.1% 0.6%  
386 0.1% 0.5%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0.1% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.7%  
311 0.1% 99.6%  
312 0.2% 99.5%  
313 0.2% 99.3% Last Result
314 0.1% 99.2%  
315 0.4% 99.0%  
316 0.4% 98.6%  
317 0.3% 98%  
318 0.6% 98%  
319 0.9% 97%  
320 0.5% 96%  
321 0.8% 96%  
322 1.4% 95%  
323 0.9% 94%  
324 1.3% 93%  
325 2% 91%  
326 1.4% 90%  
327 2% 88%  
328 2% 86%  
329 3% 85%  
330 2% 82%  
331 2% 80%  
332 3% 78%  
333 3% 75%  
334 3% 72%  
335 3% 70%  
336 3% 67%  
337 3% 63%  
338 3% 60%  
339 4% 57%  
340 3% 53% Median
341 3% 49%  
342 4% 46%  
343 4% 42%  
344 3% 38%  
345 2% 34%  
346 3% 32%  
347 2% 28%  
348 3% 26%  
349 3% 23%  
350 2% 21%  
351 2% 18%  
352 2% 17%  
353 2% 15%  
354 1.4% 13%  
355 1.1% 11% Majority
356 2% 10%  
357 2% 8%  
358 1.0% 7%  
359 0.6% 6%  
360 1.0% 5%  
361 0.7% 4%  
362 0.5% 3%  
363 0.5% 3%  
364 0.6% 2%  
365 0.3% 2%  
366 0.2% 1.5%  
367 0.3% 1.2%  
368 0.2% 1.0%  
369 0.1% 0.7%  
370 0.1% 0.6%  
371 0.1% 0.5%  
372 0.1% 0.4%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0.2% 99.6%  
305 0.1% 99.5%  
306 0.1% 99.4%  
307 0.2% 99.2%  
308 0.2% 99.1%  
309 0.3% 98.8%  
310 0.5% 98%  
311 0.4% 98%  
312 0.5% 98%  
313 0.6% 97%  
314 0.5% 97%  
315 0.9% 96%  
316 1.3% 95%  
317 1.5% 94%  
318 1.2% 92%  
319 1.2% 91%  
320 1.3% 90%  
321 2% 89%  
322 3% 87%  
323 3% 84%  
324 3% 82%  
325 2% 79%  
326 2% 77%  
327 3% 75%  
328 3% 72%  
329 3% 69%  
330 4% 66%  
331 4% 62%  
332 2% 58%  
333 3% 56%  
334 3% 53% Median
335 4% 50%  
336 3% 45%  
337 4% 42%  
338 3% 38%  
339 2% 35%  
340 2% 32%  
341 4% 30%  
342 3% 26%  
343 2% 23%  
344 3% 20%  
345 1.4% 18%  
346 2% 16%  
347 2% 14%  
348 2% 12%  
349 2% 11%  
350 1.2% 9%  
351 1.2% 7%  
352 0.9% 6%  
353 0.8% 5%  
354 0.9% 5%  
355 0.5% 4% Majority
356 0.6% 3%  
357 0.5% 2%  
358 0.4% 2%  
359 0.3% 2%  
360 0.2% 1.3%  
361 0.2% 1.0%  
362 0.2% 0.8%  
363 0.1% 0.6%  
364 0.1% 0.5%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.7%  
263 0.1% 99.6%  
264 0.1% 99.5%  
265 0.2% 99.4%  
266 0.3% 99.2%  
267 0.3% 99.0%  
268 0.3% 98.6%  
269 0.4% 98%  
270 0.5% 98%  
271 0.6% 97%  
272 0.6% 97%  
273 1.1% 96%  
274 1.2% 95%  
275 1.4% 94%  
276 1.1% 93%  
277 1.2% 91%  
278 2% 90%  
279 2% 89%  
280 3% 87%  
281 2% 84%  
282 2% 82%  
283 3% 79%  
284 2% 76%  
285 3% 74%  
286 5% 72%  
287 2% 67%  
288 4% 65%  
289 4% 61%  
290 4% 57%  
291 4% 53%  
292 3% 50% Median
293 3% 47%  
294 4% 44%  
295 3% 40%  
296 3% 37%  
297 3% 34%  
298 3% 30%  
299 2% 28%  
300 2% 25%  
301 2% 23%  
302 2% 21%  
303 3% 18%  
304 2% 15%  
305 2% 14%  
306 1.5% 12%  
307 1.3% 11%  
308 2% 9%  
309 1.2% 8%  
310 1.3% 7%  
311 1.0% 5%  
312 0.5% 4%  
313 0.8% 4%  
314 0.4% 3%  
315 0.5% 3%  
316 0.4% 2%  
317 0.5% 2%  
318 0.2% 1.2%  
319 0.2% 1.0%  
320 0.1% 0.8%  
321 0.2% 0.7%  
322 0.1% 0.5%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0.1% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0.1% 99.8%  
261 0.1% 99.7%  
262 0.1% 99.6%  
263 0% 99.6%  
264 0.1% 99.5%  
265 0.1% 99.5%  
266 0.2% 99.4%  
267 0.2% 99.2%  
268 0.4% 99.0%  
269 0.5% 98.6%  
270 1.0% 98%  
271 1.3% 97%  
272 1.2% 96%  
273 0.7% 95%  
274 0.9% 94%  
275 0.8% 93%  
276 0.6% 92%  
277 0.5% 92%  
278 0.9% 91%  
279 0.8% 90%  
280 2% 90%  
281 2% 88%  
282 5% 86%  
283 4% 81%  
284 5% 77%  
285 4% 72%  
286 4% 68%  
287 2% 64%  
288 2% 62%  
289 2% 60%  
290 1.4% 58%  
291 1.4% 56%  
292 2% 55% Median
293 3% 53%  
294 5% 51%  
295 6% 46%  
296 4% 40%  
297 6% 36%  
298 4% 30%  
299 3% 25%  
300 3% 22%  
301 2% 19%  
302 1.2% 18%  
303 1.0% 17%  
304 0.8% 16%  
305 1.0% 15%  
306 1.4% 14%  
307 2% 12%  
308 2% 11%  
309 1.4% 9%  
310 2% 7%  
311 2% 6%  
312 0.9% 4%  
313 0.7% 3%  
314 0.4% 2%  
315 0.2% 2%  
316 0.2% 2%  
317 0.1% 1.4%  
318 0.1% 1.3%  
319 0.2% 1.1%  
320 0.2% 1.0%  
321 0.1% 0.8%  
322 0.2% 0.7%  
323 0.2% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 99.9%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0.1% 99.9%  
246 0.1% 99.8%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.7%  
249 0.1% 99.6%  
250 0.2% 99.5%  
251 0.2% 99.3%  
252 0.3% 99.1%  
253 0.3% 98.8%  
254 0.4% 98.5%  
255 0.4% 98%  
256 0.5% 98%  
257 0.7% 97%  
258 0.7% 97%  
259 1.0% 96%  
260 0.8% 95%  
261 1.2% 94%  
262 1.4% 93%  
263 2% 91%  
264 2% 90%  
265 2% 88%  
266 2% 86%  
267 2% 84%  
268 2% 82%  
269 3% 79%  
270 3% 77%  
271 3% 74%  
272 4% 71%  
273 3% 68%  
274 4% 65%  
275 4% 61%  
276 2% 57%  
277 3% 55%  
278 4% 52% Median
279 3% 47%  
280 3% 45%  
281 4% 41%  
282 4% 38%  
283 3% 34%  
284 3% 31%  
285 3% 28%  
286 3% 25%  
287 3% 22%  
288 2% 20%  
289 2% 17%  
290 2% 15%  
291 2% 13%  
292 2% 11%  
293 2% 10%  
294 1.4% 8%  
295 0.8% 7%  
296 1.1% 6%  
297 1.1% 5%  
298 0.4% 4%  
299 0.6% 3%  
300 0.7% 3%  
301 0.3% 2%  
302 0.4% 2%  
303 0.3% 1.4%  
304 0.2% 1.1%  
305 0.2% 0.9%  
306 0.1% 0.7%  
307 0.1% 0.5%  
308 0.1% 0.4%  
309 0.1% 0.3%  
310 0.1% 0.3%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0.1% 0.2%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
195 0% 100%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.8%  
200 0.1% 99.8%  
201 0.1% 99.7%  
202 0.1% 99.6%  
203 0.2% 99.4%  
204 0.2% 99.3%  
205 0.3% 99.0%  
206 0.3% 98.7%  
207 0.5% 98%  
208 0.5% 98%  
209 0.5% 97%  
210 0.8% 97%  
211 1.0% 96%  
212 0.9% 95%  
213 1.2% 94%  
214 2% 93%  
215 2% 91%  
216 2% 90%  
217 2% 88%  
218 2% 87%  
219 2% 85%  
220 3% 83%  
221 3% 80%  
222 4% 77%  
223 4% 74%  
224 3% 70%  
225 3% 67%  
226 3% 65%  
227 3% 62%  
228 3% 58%  
229 4% 55%  
230 4% 52% Median
231 4% 48%  
232 3% 44%  
233 4% 41% Last Result
234 3% 37%  
235 3% 33%  
236 3% 30%  
237 3% 27%  
238 2% 24%  
239 3% 22%  
240 3% 19%  
241 2% 16%  
242 2% 14%  
243 2% 12%  
244 1.4% 10%  
245 1.1% 8%  
246 0.9% 7%  
247 1.3% 6%  
248 1.0% 5%  
249 1.0% 4%  
250 0.4% 3%  
251 0.4% 2%  
252 0.3% 2%  
253 0.5% 2%  
254 0.2% 1.2%  
255 0.1% 1.0%  
256 0.2% 0.8%  
257 0.2% 0.6%  
258 0.1% 0.4%  
259 0.1% 0.3%  
260 0.1% 0.2%  
261 0% 0.2%  
262 0% 0.1%  
263 0% 0.1%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.9%  
171 0% 99.9%  
172 0% 99.9%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0.1% 99.8%  
175 0.1% 99.8%  
176 0.1% 99.7%  
177 0.2% 99.5%  
178 0.2% 99.4%  
179 0.3% 99.2%  
180 0.3% 98.9%  
181 0.4% 98.6%  
182 0.4% 98%  
183 0.6% 98%  
184 0.6% 97%  
185 1.0% 97%  
186 0.9% 96%  
187 1.4% 95%  
188 1.4% 93%  
189 1.5% 92%  
190 2% 91%  
191 2% 89%  
192 2% 87%  
193 2% 84%  
194 2% 82%  
195 3% 80%  
196 3% 77%  
197 3% 74%  
198 3% 70%  
199 5% 67%  
200 4% 63%  
201 4% 59%  
202 4% 56%  
203 4% 52% Median
204 4% 48%  
205 5% 44%  
206 4% 39%  
207 3% 35%  
208 3% 32%  
209 3% 29%  
210 3% 26%  
211 3% 23%  
212 3% 20%  
213 2% 18%  
214 2% 16%  
215 2% 14%  
216 2% 11%  
217 1.3% 9%  
218 2% 8%  
219 0.9% 6%  
220 0.9% 6%  
221 1.0% 5%  
222 0.6% 4% Last Result
223 0.5% 3%  
224 0.4% 3%  
225 0.5% 2%  
226 0.2% 2%  
227 0.4% 1.3%  
228 0.2% 1.0%  
229 0.2% 0.8%  
230 0.1% 0.6%  
231 0.1% 0.5%  
232 0.1% 0.3%  
233 0.1% 0.2%  
234 0.1% 0.2%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations