Opinion Poll by Kantar, 11–17 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 21.0% 19.8–22.2% 19.5–22.6% 19.2–22.9% 18.7–23.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 17.9% 16.8–19.0% 16.5–19.4% 16.2–19.6% 15.7–20.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–13.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.1% 3.6–4.8% 3.4–4.9% 3.3–5.1% 3.1–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 161 152–170 150–172 148–175 143–180
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 146 137–155 135–157 133–159 129–164
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 137 129–146 126–148 124–150 120–155
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 92 85–99 83–101 81–103 78–107
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 77–92 75–94 74–95 71–99
Die Linke 69 54 49–59 47–61 46–63 43–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 35 31–39 29–41 28–42 27–45

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.8%  
143 0.1% 99.6%  
144 0.3% 99.5%  
145 0.4% 99.2%  
146 0.5% 98.8%  
147 0.7% 98%  
148 0.8% 98%  
149 1.4% 97%  
150 2% 95%  
151 2% 94%  
152 2% 92%  
153 3% 90% Last Result
154 5% 86%  
155 5% 82%  
156 5% 77%  
157 5% 71%  
158 5% 67%  
159 5% 62%  
160 4% 57%  
161 4% 53% Median
162 6% 49%  
163 5% 43%  
164 5% 38%  
165 6% 33%  
166 6% 27%  
167 5% 21%  
168 3% 16%  
169 3% 13%  
170 2% 10%  
171 2% 8%  
172 2% 6%  
173 1.2% 5%  
174 0.8% 3%  
175 0.6% 3%  
176 0.6% 2%  
177 0.3% 1.4%  
178 0.3% 1.1%  
179 0.3% 0.8%  
180 0.2% 0.5%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0.1% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.2% 99.7%  
129 0.2% 99.6%  
130 0.4% 99.3%  
131 0.5% 98.9%  
132 0.6% 98%  
133 1.0% 98%  
134 1.4% 97%  
135 2% 95%  
136 2% 94%  
137 2% 92%  
138 3% 89%  
139 4% 86%  
140 5% 82%  
141 4% 77%  
142 4% 73%  
143 5% 69%  
144 5% 63%  
145 6% 58%  
146 6% 52% Median
147 6% 46%  
148 6% 40%  
149 4% 34%  
150 6% 29%  
151 4% 23%  
152 3% 18%  
153 3% 15%  
154 2% 13%  
155 3% 10%  
156 2% 8%  
157 2% 6%  
158 1.0% 4%  
159 1.1% 3%  
160 0.6% 2%  
161 0.6% 2%  
162 0.3% 1.1%  
163 0.2% 0.8%  
164 0.2% 0.6%  
165 0.1% 0.4%  
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0.1% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
116 0% 100%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.2% 99.7%  
121 0.2% 99.5%  
122 0.4% 99.2%  
123 0.5% 98.8%  
124 0.8% 98%  
125 2% 97%  
126 1.3% 96%  
127 2% 95%  
128 3% 93%  
129 3% 90%  
130 3% 87%  
131 4% 84%  
132 4% 80%  
133 5% 76%  
134 6% 71%  
135 6% 65%  
136 6% 59%  
137 6% 54% Median
138 7% 47%  
139 5% 41%  
140 7% 35%  
141 5% 29%  
142 3% 24%  
143 4% 20%  
144 3% 16%  
145 3% 13%  
146 2% 10%  
147 2% 8%  
148 2% 6%  
149 1.1% 5%  
150 1.0% 3%  
151 0.7% 2%  
152 0.6% 2%  
153 0.3% 1.1%  
154 0.3% 0.8%  
155 0.2% 0.5%  
156 0.1% 0.4%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0.1% 0.1%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.3% 99.6%  
79 0.5% 99.4%  
80 0.6% 98.9% Last Result
81 1.0% 98%  
82 1.2% 97%  
83 2% 96%  
84 2% 94%  
85 3% 92%  
86 4% 89%  
87 4% 85%  
88 5% 81%  
89 6% 76%  
90 7% 70%  
91 7% 63%  
92 8% 56% Median
93 8% 48%  
94 7% 40%  
95 7% 32%  
96 6% 26%  
97 5% 20%  
98 4% 15%  
99 2% 11%  
100 3% 9%  
101 2% 6%  
102 1.3% 4%  
103 0.9% 3%  
104 0.7% 2%  
105 0.5% 1.5%  
106 0.3% 0.9%  
107 0.2% 0.6%  
108 0.1% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 0.5% 99.4%  
73 0.7% 98.9%  
74 1.3% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 3% 95%  
77 3% 92%  
78 3% 90%  
79 4% 87%  
80 5% 83%  
81 7% 78%  
82 6% 71%  
83 9% 65%  
84 8% 56% Median
85 9% 48%  
86 6% 39%  
87 6% 33%  
88 5% 27%  
89 4% 22%  
90 3% 18%  
91 4% 15%  
92 3% 11%  
93 3% 8%  
94 2% 5% Last Result
95 1.1% 3%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.4%  
98 0.3% 0.9%  
99 0.2% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.4% 99.6%  
44 0.4% 99.2%  
45 0.8% 98.8%  
46 2% 98%  
47 3% 96%  
48 2% 93%  
49 5% 91%  
50 9% 86%  
51 9% 77%  
52 8% 68%  
53 10% 60%  
54 10% 50% Median
55 11% 40%  
56 5% 30%  
57 5% 24%  
58 7% 19%  
59 5% 12%  
60 1.4% 8%  
61 1.2% 6%  
62 2% 5%  
63 1.1% 3%  
64 0.5% 2%  
65 0.4% 1.1%  
66 0.3% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 0.7% 99.6%  
28 2% 98.8%  
29 3% 97%  
30 4% 94%  
31 7% 90%  
32 9% 83%  
33 10% 74%  
34 10% 64%  
35 12% 54% Median
36 10% 42%  
37 10% 32%  
38 7% 22%  
39 6% 15%  
40 4% 9%  
41 2% 6%  
42 1.5% 3%  
43 0.9% 2%  
44 0.5% 1.0%  
45 0.2% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 478 100% 469–489 465–491 464–494 458–498
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 425 100% 415–435 412–438 409–441 404–446
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 410 100% 399–420 396–423 393–426 388–431
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 399 100% 388–409 385–412 383–415 377–420
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 360 76% 350–371 347–374 344–377 339–382
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 349 24% 338–359 335–362 332–365 327–370
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 333 0.5% 322–344 319–347 317–349 311–355
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 318 0% 307–328 304–331 302–334 296–340
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 307 0% 296–317 293–320 291–323 286–329
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 264 0% 254–274 251–277 248–280 244–285
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 257 0% 246–267 243–270 241–272 236–277
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 253 0% 243–263 240–266 238–268 232–274
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 215 0% 205–225 202–227 200–230 195–235

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
452 0% 100%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0% 99.9%  
455 0% 99.9%  
456 0.1% 99.9%  
457 0.2% 99.7%  
458 0.2% 99.5%  
459 0.1% 99.3%  
460 0.2% 99.2%  
461 0.4% 99.0%  
462 0.5% 98.6%  
463 0.3% 98%  
464 0.6% 98%  
465 3% 97%  
466 1.4% 94% Last Result
467 0.8% 93%  
468 1.1% 92%  
469 3% 91%  
470 4% 88%  
471 2% 84%  
472 3% 82%  
473 5% 79%  
474 4% 74%  
475 2% 70%  
476 4% 68%  
477 9% 65%  
478 9% 55%  
479 3% 47% Median
480 3% 44%  
481 4% 41%  
482 5% 37%  
483 2% 32%  
484 3% 30%  
485 9% 27%  
486 4% 18%  
487 2% 14%  
488 0.9% 12%  
489 2% 11%  
490 3% 9%  
491 1.1% 6%  
492 0.7% 5%  
493 1.5% 4%  
494 0.7% 3%  
495 0.2% 2%  
496 0.2% 2%  
497 0.4% 1.5%  
498 0.6% 1.1%  
499 0.2% 0.5%  
500 0% 0.3%  
501 0.1% 0.2%  
502 0.1% 0.2%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0.1% 99.8%  
402 0.1% 99.7%  
403 0.1% 99.6%  
404 0.1% 99.6%  
405 0.3% 99.4%  
406 0.4% 99.1%  
407 0.3% 98.7%  
408 0.5% 98%  
409 0.9% 98%  
410 1.0% 97%  
411 0.6% 96%  
412 2% 95%  
413 2% 94%  
414 1.4% 92%  
415 1.1% 91%  
416 3% 89%  
417 4% 87%  
418 2% 83%  
419 3% 80%  
420 5% 77%  
421 5% 72%  
422 3% 67%  
423 5% 64%  
424 8% 59%  
425 4% 51% Median
426 3% 47%  
427 5% 44%  
428 5% 39%  
429 5% 34%  
430 3% 29%  
431 4% 26%  
432 6% 22%  
433 3% 16%  
434 1.5% 13%  
435 3% 12%  
436 3% 9%  
437 1.0% 7%  
438 0.7% 5%  
439 1.3% 5%  
440 1.0% 3%  
441 0.4% 3%  
442 0.4% 2%  
443 0.7% 2%  
444 0.2% 1.0%  
445 0.1% 0.8%  
446 0.2% 0.6%  
447 0.2% 0.4%  
448 0.1% 0.3%  
449 0% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.9%  
386 0.1% 99.8%  
387 0.1% 99.7%  
388 0.1% 99.6%  
389 0.2% 99.5%  
390 0.2% 99.3%  
391 0.5% 99.1%  
392 0.4% 98.6%  
393 0.8% 98% Last Result
394 0.7% 97%  
395 0.7% 97%  
396 2% 96%  
397 0.9% 94%  
398 2% 93%  
399 2% 92%  
400 2% 90%  
401 3% 87%  
402 3% 84%  
403 4% 82%  
404 4% 78%  
405 4% 74%  
406 4% 70%  
407 5% 66%  
408 5% 62%  
409 4% 56%  
410 4% 52% Median
411 4% 47%  
412 4% 43%  
413 6% 39%  
414 3% 33%  
415 5% 30%  
416 4% 24%  
417 3% 21%  
418 4% 18%  
419 3% 14%  
420 2% 12%  
421 2% 9%  
422 1.4% 7%  
423 1.1% 6%  
424 1.3% 5%  
425 0.8% 4%  
426 0.7% 3%  
427 0.5% 2%  
428 0.4% 2%  
429 0.3% 1.2%  
430 0.3% 0.8%  
431 0.1% 0.6%  
432 0.2% 0.4%  
433 0.1% 0.3%  
434 0.1% 0.2%  
435 0.1% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.8%  
376 0.1% 99.7%  
377 0.2% 99.6%  
378 0.1% 99.5%  
379 0.3% 99.4%  
380 0.3% 99.1%  
381 0.4% 98.8%  
382 0.8% 98%  
383 0.5% 98%  
384 1.1% 97%  
385 1.1% 96%  
386 1.2% 95%  
387 2% 94%  
388 2% 91%  
389 2% 90%  
390 2% 87%  
391 4% 85%  
392 3% 81%  
393 4% 78%  
394 3% 74%  
395 5% 71%  
396 4% 66%  
397 6% 62%  
398 4% 57%  
399 5% 52% Median
400 4% 47%  
401 5% 43%  
402 6% 38%  
403 3% 32%  
404 5% 29%  
405 2% 24%  
406 4% 22%  
407 3% 17%  
408 3% 15%  
409 2% 12%  
410 2% 10%  
411 2% 8%  
412 1.2% 6%  
413 1.4% 5%  
414 0.9% 4%  
415 0.8% 3%  
416 0.5% 2%  
417 0.4% 1.5%  
418 0.2% 1.1%  
419 0.3% 0.9%  
420 0.2% 0.6%  
421 0.1% 0.4%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.7%  
339 0.1% 99.6%  
340 0.2% 99.4%  
341 0.2% 99.2%  
342 0.5% 99.0%  
343 0.7% 98.5%  
344 0.6% 98%  
345 1.0% 97%  
346 0.8% 96%  
347 1.4% 96%  
348 2% 94%  
349 2% 92%  
350 2% 91%  
351 2% 88%  
352 3% 87%  
353 4% 84%  
354 4% 79%  
355 4% 76% Majority
356 3% 72%  
357 3% 68%  
358 5% 65%  
359 6% 60%  
360 6% 55%  
361 5% 49% Median
362 4% 44%  
363 4% 40%  
364 5% 36%  
365 5% 31%  
366 3% 26%  
367 4% 23%  
368 2% 19%  
369 4% 17%  
370 3% 14%  
371 3% 11%  
372 2% 8%  
373 1.1% 7%  
374 1.0% 6%  
375 1.0% 5%  
376 0.9% 4%  
377 0.8% 3%  
378 0.6% 2%  
379 0.2% 1.4%  
380 0.3% 1.2%  
381 0.3% 0.9%  
382 0.2% 0.6%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.7%  
327 0.2% 99.6%  
328 0.3% 99.4%  
329 0.3% 99.1%  
330 0.2% 98.8%  
331 0.6% 98.6%  
332 0.8% 98%  
333 0.9% 97%  
334 1.0% 96%  
335 1.0% 95%  
336 1.1% 94%  
337 2% 93%  
338 3% 92%  
339 3% 89%  
340 4% 86%  
341 2% 83%  
342 4% 81%  
343 3% 77%  
344 5% 74%  
345 5% 69%  
346 4% 64%  
347 4% 60%  
348 5% 56% Median
349 6% 51%  
350 6% 45%  
351 5% 40%  
352 3% 35%  
353 3% 32%  
354 4% 28%  
355 4% 24% Majority
356 4% 21%  
357 3% 16%  
358 2% 13%  
359 2% 12%  
360 2% 9%  
361 2% 8%  
362 1.4% 6%  
363 0.8% 4%  
364 1.0% 4%  
365 0.6% 3%  
366 0.7% 2%  
367 0.5% 1.5%  
368 0.2% 1.0%  
369 0.2% 0.8%  
370 0.1% 0.6%  
371 0.1% 0.4%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0.1% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.7%  
311 0.1% 99.6%  
312 0.1% 99.5%  
313 0.2% 99.3%  
314 0.2% 99.2%  
315 0.5% 99.0%  
316 0.6% 98%  
317 1.0% 98%  
318 1.2% 97%  
319 2% 96%  
320 2% 94%  
321 2% 92%  
322 1.5% 90%  
323 1.3% 89%  
324 2% 88%  
325 3% 86%  
326 3% 83%  
327 4% 80%  
328 7% 75%  
329 5% 69%  
330 5% 64%  
331 4% 59%  
332 3% 55%  
333 3% 52% Median
334 3% 48%  
335 5% 45%  
336 4% 40%  
337 6% 36%  
338 6% 30%  
339 5% 24%  
340 3% 19%  
341 2% 16%  
342 1.5% 13%  
343 1.5% 12%  
344 1.4% 11%  
345 2% 9%  
346 1.3% 8%  
347 2% 6%  
348 1.3% 5%  
349 1.1% 3%  
350 0.7% 2%  
351 0.3% 1.4%  
352 0.2% 1.1%  
353 0.2% 0.9%  
354 0.2% 0.7%  
355 0.1% 0.5% Majority
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0.1% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.2% 99.6%  
297 0.2% 99.5%  
298 0.2% 99.2%  
299 0.4% 99.0%  
300 0.4% 98.6%  
301 0.6% 98%  
302 0.8% 98%  
303 0.9% 97%  
304 1.2% 96%  
305 1.4% 95%  
306 3% 93%  
307 2% 91%  
308 2% 89%  
309 2% 87%  
310 3% 84%  
311 5% 82%  
312 4% 77%  
313 3% 72% Last Result
314 4% 69%  
315 5% 65%  
316 4% 60%  
317 6% 56%  
318 4% 51% Median
319 4% 46%  
320 5% 42%  
321 4% 38%  
322 5% 33%  
323 5% 29%  
324 3% 24%  
325 5% 21%  
326 2% 16%  
327 2% 14%  
328 2% 12%  
329 2% 10%  
330 1.5% 7%  
331 1.0% 6%  
332 1.3% 5%  
333 0.7% 4%  
334 0.7% 3%  
335 0.6% 2%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.3% 1.2%  
338 0.2% 0.9%  
339 0.2% 0.7%  
340 0.2% 0.5%  
341 0.2% 0.4%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0.2% 99.5%  
287 0.2% 99.3%  
288 0.4% 99.1%  
289 0.6% 98.7%  
290 0.5% 98%  
291 0.7% 98%  
292 0.9% 97%  
293 1.4% 96%  
294 2% 95%  
295 1.3% 93%  
296 2% 92%  
297 3% 89%  
298 3% 86%  
299 3% 83%  
300 3% 80%  
301 4% 77%  
302 4% 73%  
303 4% 69%  
304 4% 66%  
305 7% 62%  
306 4% 55%  
307 4% 51% Median
308 6% 47%  
309 4% 41%  
310 4% 37%  
311 4% 33%  
312 6% 29%  
313 3% 23%  
314 4% 20%  
315 2% 17%  
316 2% 15%  
317 2% 12%  
318 2% 10%  
319 2% 8%  
320 1.4% 6%  
321 0.7% 5%  
322 1.0% 4%  
323 0.7% 3%  
324 0.6% 2%  
325 0.6% 2%  
326 0.3% 1.2%  
327 0.2% 0.9%  
328 0.2% 0.7%  
329 0.2% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.3%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0.1% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.8%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.3% 99.5%  
245 0.3% 99.3%  
246 0.4% 98.9%  
247 0.7% 98.5%  
248 0.5% 98%  
249 1.0% 97%  
250 0.8% 96%  
251 1.2% 96%  
252 1.3% 94%  
253 2% 93%  
254 1.4% 90%  
255 4% 89%  
256 3% 85%  
257 4% 82%  
258 3% 79%  
259 4% 76%  
260 3% 72%  
261 6% 69%  
262 4% 63%  
263 7% 60%  
264 3% 53% Median
265 6% 49%  
266 5% 43%  
267 6% 38%  
268 4% 32%  
269 4% 28%  
270 4% 24%  
271 4% 21%  
272 3% 17%  
273 3% 15%  
274 2% 12%  
275 2% 10%  
276 2% 8%  
277 1.3% 6%  
278 1.0% 5%  
279 0.8% 4%  
280 0.6% 3%  
281 0.5% 2%  
282 0.4% 2%  
283 0.3% 1.1%  
284 0.3% 0.8%  
285 0.2% 0.5%  
286 0.1% 0.4%  
287 0.1% 0.3%  
288 0.1% 0.2%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.2% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.5%  
237 0.3% 99.4%  
238 0.3% 99.1%  
239 0.4% 98.8%  
240 0.8% 98%  
241 0.7% 98%  
242 0.8% 97%  
243 1.3% 96%  
244 2% 95%  
245 2% 93%  
246 2% 91%  
247 2% 89%  
248 3% 87%  
249 3% 84%  
250 3% 81%  
251 4% 77%  
252 5% 73%  
253 4% 68%  
254 5% 65%  
255 5% 60%  
256 4% 55% Median
257 6% 50%  
258 5% 44%  
259 5% 39%  
260 3% 34%  
261 6% 31%  
262 3% 25%  
263 3% 22%  
264 2% 18%  
265 3% 16%  
266 2% 13%  
267 3% 11%  
268 2% 9%  
269 1.4% 7%  
270 1.3% 5%  
271 0.9% 4%  
272 0.7% 3%  
273 0.6% 2%  
274 0.5% 2%  
275 0.3% 1.3%  
276 0.3% 0.9%  
277 0.2% 0.7%  
278 0.1% 0.5%  
279 0.1% 0.3%  
280 0.1% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
227 0.1% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0.2% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.6%  
233 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
234 0.3% 99.3%  
235 0.5% 99.1%  
236 0.6% 98.6%  
237 0.2% 98%  
238 0.6% 98%  
239 2% 97%  
240 1.3% 95%  
241 0.6% 94%  
242 1.2% 94%  
243 3% 92%  
244 3% 89%  
245 1.4% 86%  
246 2% 84%  
247 6% 83%  
248 6% 76%  
249 3% 71%  
250 3% 68%  
251 7% 65%  
252 8% 59%  
253 2% 51% Median
254 2% 48%  
255 8% 46%  
256 7% 38%  
257 3% 31%  
258 2% 28%  
259 5% 26%  
260 5% 21%  
261 3% 15%  
262 0.9% 13%  
263 3% 12%  
264 2% 9%  
265 0.9% 6%  
266 0.4% 5%  
267 1.4% 5%  
268 2% 4%  
269 0.3% 2%  
270 0.2% 2%  
271 0.4% 2%  
272 0.5% 1.2%  
273 0.2% 0.7%  
274 0.1% 0.5%  
275 0.2% 0.5%  
276 0.1% 0.3%  
277 0.1% 0.2%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.7%  
195 0.2% 99.6%  
196 0.3% 99.5%  
197 0.3% 99.2%  
198 0.5% 98.8%  
199 0.6% 98%  
200 0.8% 98%  
201 0.9% 97%  
202 1.2% 96%  
203 2% 95%  
204 2% 93%  
205 2% 91%  
206 3% 89%  
207 3% 86%  
208 5% 83%  
209 3% 78%  
210 5% 75%  
211 4% 70%  
212 6% 66%  
213 6% 60%  
214 3% 55%  
215 6% 51% Median
216 5% 45%  
217 5% 41%  
218 5% 36%  
219 5% 30%  
220 4% 26%  
221 4% 22%  
222 2% 18% Last Result
223 3% 16%  
224 3% 13%  
225 2% 10%  
226 2% 8%  
227 1.5% 6%  
228 1.3% 5%  
229 0.8% 4%  
230 0.7% 3%  
231 0.7% 2%  
232 0.4% 1.5%  
233 0.3% 1.1%  
234 0.3% 0.8%  
235 0.1% 0.5%  
236 0.1% 0.4%  
237 0.1% 0.3%  
238 0.1% 0.2%  
239 0.1% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations