Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap, 17–18 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 21.0% 19.6–22.6% 19.1–23.0% 18.8–23.4% 18.1–24.1%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 18.7% 17.3–20.2% 16.9–20.6% 16.6–21.0% 16.0–21.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 15.7–18.4% 15.3–18.8% 15.0–19.2% 14.4–19.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.0% 11.8–14.3% 11.5–14.6% 11.2–15.0% 10.7–15.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6% 9.4–12.9% 8.9–13.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.3–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.3% 3.6–5.1% 3.4–5.3% 3.3–5.6% 3.0–6.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 161 150–172 147–176 144–179 139–185
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 143 133–155 130–158 127–160 122–166
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 130 120–141 117–144 115–147 110–152
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 99 90–109 88–112 86–114 82–119
Alternative für Deutschland 94 85 76–93 74–96 72–98 68–103
Die Linke 69 54 47–61 45–63 44–65 40–69
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 36 30–42 29–44 28–45 26–49

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.1% 99.7%  
139 0.2% 99.6%  
140 0.2% 99.4%  
141 0.3% 99.1%  
142 0.4% 98.8%  
143 0.5% 98%  
144 0.8% 98%  
145 0.9% 97%  
146 0.9% 96%  
147 2% 95%  
148 2% 94%  
149 2% 92%  
150 2% 90%  
151 2% 88%  
152 3% 86%  
153 3% 83% Last Result
154 4% 80%  
155 4% 76%  
156 3% 72%  
157 3% 69%  
158 5% 66%  
159 4% 61%  
160 5% 56%  
161 6% 52% Median
162 4% 46%  
163 3% 42%  
164 5% 39%  
165 4% 34%  
166 3% 30%  
167 3% 26%  
168 3% 23%  
169 3% 20%  
170 3% 17%  
171 3% 14%  
172 2% 12%  
173 1.5% 10%  
174 2% 8%  
175 1.2% 6%  
176 1.2% 5%  
177 0.6% 4%  
178 0.9% 3%  
179 0.5% 3%  
180 0.5% 2%  
181 0.3% 2%  
182 0.3% 1.2%  
183 0.3% 0.9%  
184 0.2% 0.7%  
185 0.1% 0.5%  
186 0.1% 0.4%  
187 0.1% 0.3%  
188 0.1% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.8%  
121 0.1% 99.7%  
122 0.2% 99.6%  
123 0.2% 99.5%  
124 0.3% 99.2%  
125 0.4% 98.9%  
126 0.5% 98.5%  
127 0.7% 98%  
128 0.9% 97%  
129 1.2% 96%  
130 1.3% 95%  
131 2% 94%  
132 2% 92%  
133 3% 91%  
134 3% 88%  
135 4% 86%  
136 3% 82%  
137 3% 79%  
138 3% 75%  
139 4% 72%  
140 4% 68%  
141 4% 65%  
142 6% 60%  
143 6% 54% Median
144 4% 49%  
145 5% 45%  
146 5% 40%  
147 4% 35%  
148 4% 31%  
149 3% 28%  
150 4% 24%  
151 4% 21%  
152 3% 17%  
153 3% 14%  
154 2% 12%  
155 2% 10%  
156 1.5% 8%  
157 2% 7%  
158 1.1% 5%  
159 0.9% 4%  
160 0.8% 3%  
161 0.5% 2%  
162 0.4% 2%  
163 0.3% 1.5%  
164 0.2% 1.1%  
165 0.3% 0.9%  
166 0.2% 0.6%  
167 0.1% 0.4%  
168 0.1% 0.3%  
169 0.1% 0.2%  
170 0% 0.2%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.2% 99.7%  
110 0.1% 99.6%  
111 0.3% 99.4%  
112 0.3% 99.1%  
113 0.7% 98.8%  
114 0.5% 98%  
115 0.7% 98%  
116 1.2% 97%  
117 0.9% 96%  
118 3% 95%  
119 1.3% 92%  
120 2% 91%  
121 3% 89%  
122 4% 86%  
123 4% 82%  
124 3% 78%  
125 4% 75%  
126 4% 70%  
127 4% 66%  
128 4% 62%  
129 6% 59%  
130 4% 53% Median
131 6% 49%  
132 3% 43%  
133 5% 40%  
134 4% 35%  
135 4% 31%  
136 4% 27%  
137 3% 22%  
138 4% 20%  
139 1.5% 16%  
140 4% 14%  
141 1.4% 10%  
142 2% 9%  
143 0.9% 7%  
144 0.9% 6%  
145 1.4% 5%  
146 0.6% 3%  
147 0.9% 3%  
148 0.2% 2%  
149 0.5% 2%  
150 0.2% 1.2%  
151 0.4% 1.0%  
152 0.2% 0.6%  
153 0.1% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0% 0.2%  
156 0.1% 0.2%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.7%  
82 0.2% 99.5%  
83 0.4% 99.3%  
84 0.3% 98.9%  
85 0.8% 98.6%  
86 0.6% 98%  
87 1.4% 97%  
88 1.4% 96%  
89 2% 94%  
90 3% 93%  
91 2% 89%  
92 5% 88%  
93 3% 83%  
94 6% 80%  
95 2% 74%  
96 7% 71%  
97 3% 64%  
98 5% 61%  
99 6% 56% Median
100 4% 50%  
101 8% 46%  
102 3% 39%  
103 8% 36%  
104 2% 28%  
105 7% 26%  
106 2% 20%  
107 4% 18%  
108 3% 14%  
109 2% 11%  
110 2% 9%  
111 1.1% 6%  
112 2% 5%  
113 0.5% 4%  
114 0.9% 3%  
115 0.4% 2%  
116 0.6% 2%  
117 0.3% 1.2%  
118 0.3% 0.9%  
119 0.2% 0.6%  
120 0.1% 0.4%  
121 0.1% 0.3%  
122 0% 0.2%  
123 0.1% 0.1%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.3% 99.6%  
69 0.4% 99.3%  
70 0.5% 99.0%  
71 0.6% 98%  
72 0.9% 98%  
73 1.4% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 2% 93%  
76 3% 91%  
77 3% 88%  
78 3% 85%  
79 5% 82%  
80 5% 78%  
81 5% 73%  
82 6% 68%  
83 6% 61%  
84 5% 55%  
85 5% 50% Median
86 5% 45%  
87 5% 39%  
88 6% 34%  
89 6% 28%  
90 4% 22%  
91 3% 18%  
92 2% 15%  
93 3% 12%  
94 2% 10% Last Result
95 2% 8%  
96 1.3% 5%  
97 1.1% 4%  
98 0.7% 3%  
99 0.5% 2%  
100 0.6% 2%  
101 0.3% 1.2%  
102 0.4% 0.9%  
103 0.2% 0.5%  
104 0.1% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 0.3% 99.5%  
42 0.8% 99.2%  
43 0.9% 98%  
44 2% 98%  
45 2% 96%  
46 2% 94%  
47 4% 92%  
48 4% 88%  
49 6% 84%  
50 5% 77%  
51 7% 73%  
52 8% 66%  
53 6% 58%  
54 9% 52% Median
55 6% 42%  
56 8% 36%  
57 5% 28%  
58 4% 24%  
59 5% 19%  
60 3% 14%  
61 3% 11%  
62 2% 8%  
63 2% 7%  
64 1.4% 5%  
65 1.0% 3%  
66 0.9% 2%  
67 0.5% 2%  
68 0.4% 1.1%  
69 0.2% 0.7% Last Result
70 0.2% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.5% 99.6%  
27 1.1% 99.1%  
28 2% 98%  
29 3% 96%  
30 4% 94%  
31 5% 90%  
32 6% 85%  
33 7% 79%  
34 8% 72%  
35 9% 64%  
36 10% 55% Median
37 7% 46%  
38 8% 39%  
39 7% 31%  
40 7% 24%  
41 4% 17%  
42 4% 13%  
43 3% 9%  
44 2% 6%  
45 1.2% 4%  
46 0.9% 2% Last Result
47 0.6% 1.4%  
48 0.3% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 471 100% 458–484 454–487 452–491 445–497
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 440 100% 428–454 423–456 420–461 414–468
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 410 100% 396–423 392–427 389–430 383–437
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 391 100% 377–404 374–409 370–411 364–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 364 83% 351–377 347–381 343–384 337–391
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 345 17% 332–358 328–362 325–366 318–372
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 341 10% 328–354 323–358 320–361 314–369
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 310 0% 296–323 293–327 289–330 284–337
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 291 0% 279–305 274–309 271–311 265–318
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 279 0% 266–293 263–296 259–300 253–306
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 265 0% 252–277 248–281 244–284 238–291
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 261 0% 248–274 244–277 241–281 235–287
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 214 0% 202–227 199–231 196–234 190–240

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 99.9%  
440 0% 99.9%  
441 0% 99.9%  
442 0.1% 99.8%  
443 0.1% 99.8%  
444 0.1% 99.7%  
445 0.1% 99.6%  
446 0.2% 99.4%  
447 0.2% 99.3%  
448 0.2% 99.0%  
449 0.4% 98.8%  
450 0.4% 98%  
451 0.4% 98%  
452 0.7% 98%  
453 0.9% 97%  
454 1.1% 96%  
455 1.0% 95%  
456 1.2% 94%  
457 1.5% 93%  
458 2% 91%  
459 2% 90%  
460 2% 88%  
461 3% 86%  
462 3% 83%  
463 3% 80%  
464 3% 77%  
465 4% 74%  
466 3% 71% Last Result
467 3% 67%  
468 3% 64%  
469 5% 61%  
470 3% 56% Median
471 4% 53%  
472 3% 49%  
473 5% 46%  
474 5% 41%  
475 3% 36%  
476 3% 33%  
477 4% 29%  
478 3% 25%  
479 2% 22%  
480 3% 20%  
481 3% 18%  
482 2% 15%  
483 1.4% 12%  
484 2% 11%  
485 1.1% 8%  
486 2% 7%  
487 1.1% 6%  
488 0.8% 5%  
489 0.8% 4%  
490 0.5% 3%  
491 0.6% 3%  
492 0.5% 2%  
493 0.3% 1.4%  
494 0.3% 1.2%  
495 0.2% 0.8%  
496 0.1% 0.7%  
497 0.2% 0.6%  
498 0.1% 0.4%  
499 0.1% 0.3%  
500 0% 0.3%  
501 0% 0.2%  
502 0% 0.2%  
503 0% 0.2%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0.1%  
513 0% 0.1%  
514 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0.1% 99.8%  
412 0.1% 99.8%  
413 0.1% 99.7%  
414 0.2% 99.6%  
415 0.2% 99.4%  
416 0.2% 99.1%  
417 0.2% 99.0%  
418 0.4% 98.8%  
419 0.6% 98%  
420 0.9% 98%  
421 1.0% 97%  
422 0.8% 96%  
423 0.6% 95%  
424 0.8% 95%  
425 0.9% 94%  
426 1.0% 93%  
427 2% 92%  
428 2% 90%  
429 3% 88%  
430 3% 85%  
431 2% 82%  
432 2% 80%  
433 2% 78%  
434 2% 75%  
435 6% 73%  
436 5% 67%  
437 3% 62%  
438 2% 59%  
439 2% 57% Median
440 5% 55%  
441 3% 50%  
442 2% 47%  
443 3% 44%  
444 4% 42%  
445 7% 37%  
446 5% 31%  
447 3% 26%  
448 2% 22%  
449 2% 20%  
450 2% 18%  
451 2% 16%  
452 2% 14%  
453 1.0% 12%  
454 2% 11%  
455 3% 9%  
456 1.3% 6%  
457 0.7% 5%  
458 0.5% 4%  
459 0.5% 4%  
460 0.6% 3%  
461 1.1% 3%  
462 0.5% 2%  
463 0.2% 1.3%  
464 0.3% 1.1%  
465 0.2% 0.8%  
466 0.1% 0.6%  
467 0.1% 0.6%  
468 0.1% 0.5%  
469 0.1% 0.4%  
470 0.1% 0.4%  
471 0.1% 0.2%  
472 0% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1% Last Result
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0.1% 99.8%  
381 0.1% 99.7%  
382 0.1% 99.6%  
383 0.2% 99.5%  
384 0.2% 99.3%  
385 0.2% 99.1%  
386 0.4% 98.9%  
387 0.4% 98%  
388 0.5% 98%  
389 0.6% 98%  
390 0.6% 97%  
391 0.5% 96%  
392 0.9% 96%  
393 1.2% 95% Last Result
394 0.9% 94%  
395 2% 93%  
396 2% 91%  
397 2% 89%  
398 2% 87%  
399 3% 85%  
400 1.4% 82%  
401 2% 81%  
402 2% 78%  
403 4% 76%  
404 3% 72%  
405 4% 69%  
406 4% 65%  
407 3% 61%  
408 4% 58% Median
409 3% 54%  
410 4% 51%  
411 3% 47%  
412 4% 44%  
413 4% 41%  
414 4% 36%  
415 5% 33%  
416 3% 28%  
417 4% 25%  
418 2% 22%  
419 3% 20%  
420 1.4% 17%  
421 2% 16%  
422 2% 13%  
423 1.4% 11%  
424 2% 10%  
425 1.3% 8%  
426 1.1% 7%  
427 1.2% 6%  
428 0.9% 5%  
429 0.6% 4%  
430 0.8% 3%  
431 0.4% 2%  
432 0.3% 2%  
433 0.3% 1.4%  
434 0.2% 1.1%  
435 0.1% 0.9%  
436 0.2% 0.7%  
437 0.1% 0.6%  
438 0.1% 0.4%  
439 0.1% 0.4%  
440 0.1% 0.3%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.2%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.7%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.1% 99.6%  
365 0.2% 99.4%  
366 0.3% 99.3%  
367 0.3% 99.0%  
368 0.2% 98.7%  
369 0.6% 98%  
370 0.7% 98%  
371 0.4% 97%  
372 0.6% 97%  
373 0.6% 96%  
374 1.2% 96%  
375 1.4% 94%  
376 1.2% 93%  
377 2% 92%  
378 2% 90%  
379 2% 88%  
380 2% 86%  
381 2% 84%  
382 2% 82%  
383 4% 80%  
384 4% 76%  
385 3% 72%  
386 5% 69%  
387 3% 65%  
388 4% 62%  
389 2% 58%  
390 3% 56% Median
391 5% 53%  
392 4% 47%  
393 4% 43%  
394 3% 39%  
395 3% 36%  
396 3% 32%  
397 2% 29%  
398 3% 27%  
399 3% 24%  
400 3% 21%  
401 4% 18%  
402 2% 15%  
403 2% 13%  
404 1.3% 11%  
405 2% 10%  
406 1.0% 8%  
407 1.0% 7%  
408 0.8% 6%  
409 2% 5%  
410 0.8% 4%  
411 0.4% 3%  
412 0.4% 2%  
413 0.5% 2%  
414 0.3% 2%  
415 0.2% 1.3%  
416 0.2% 1.0%  
417 0.2% 0.8%  
418 0.2% 0.7%  
419 0.1% 0.5%  
420 0.1% 0.4%  
421 0% 0.3%  
422 0% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0.1% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.8%  
335 0.1% 99.7%  
336 0.1% 99.6%  
337 0.1% 99.5%  
338 0.2% 99.4%  
339 0.3% 99.2%  
340 0.3% 98.9%  
341 0.4% 98.7%  
342 0.3% 98%  
343 0.6% 98%  
344 0.7% 97%  
345 0.6% 97%  
346 0.5% 96%  
347 2% 96%  
348 0.9% 94%  
349 1.4% 93%  
350 1.2% 92%  
351 2% 90%  
352 1.3% 88%  
353 3% 87%  
354 2% 85%  
355 3% 83% Majority
356 3% 79%  
357 3% 77%  
358 3% 74%  
359 3% 71%  
360 4% 68%  
361 3% 64%  
362 4% 61%  
363 4% 57% Median
364 4% 53%  
365 4% 48%  
366 4% 44%  
367 2% 40%  
368 5% 37%  
369 3% 32%  
370 3% 29%  
371 3% 26%  
372 3% 23%  
373 2% 20%  
374 3% 18%  
375 2% 15%  
376 2% 13%  
377 1.4% 11%  
378 2% 9%  
379 0.9% 8%  
380 1.2% 7%  
381 0.7% 5%  
382 1.2% 5%  
383 0.5% 4%  
384 0.6% 3%  
385 0.4% 2%  
386 0.5% 2%  
387 0.3% 2%  
388 0.2% 1.2%  
389 0.2% 1.0%  
390 0.2% 0.8%  
391 0.1% 0.6%  
392 0.1% 0.5%  
393 0.1% 0.4%  
394 0.1% 0.3%  
395 0% 0.2%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.1% 99.6%  
318 0.1% 99.5%  
319 0.2% 99.4%  
320 0.2% 99.2%  
321 0.2% 99.0%  
322 0.3% 98.8%  
323 0.5% 98%  
324 0.4% 98%  
325 0.6% 98%  
326 0.5% 97%  
327 1.2% 96%  
328 0.7% 95%  
329 1.2% 95%  
330 0.9% 93%  
331 2% 92%  
332 1.4% 91%  
333 2% 89%  
334 2% 87%  
335 3% 85%  
336 2% 82%  
337 3% 80%  
338 3% 77%  
339 3% 74%  
340 3% 71%  
341 5% 68%  
342 2% 63%  
343 4% 60%  
344 4% 56%  
345 4% 52% Median
346 4% 47%  
347 4% 43%  
348 3% 39%  
349 4% 36%  
350 3% 32%  
351 3% 29%  
352 3% 26%  
353 3% 23%  
354 3% 21%  
355 2% 17% Majority
356 3% 15%  
357 1.3% 13%  
358 2% 12%  
359 1.2% 10%  
360 1.4% 8%  
361 0.9% 7%  
362 2% 6%  
363 0.5% 4%  
364 0.6% 4%  
365 0.7% 3%  
366 0.6% 3%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.4% 2%  
369 0.3% 1.3%  
370 0.3% 1.1%  
371 0.2% 0.8%  
372 0.1% 0.6%  
373 0.1% 0.5%  
374 0.1% 0.4%  
375 0.1% 0.3%  
376 0.1% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.8%  
311 0.1% 99.8%  
312 0.1% 99.7%  
313 0.1% 99.6%  
314 0.1% 99.5%  
315 0.2% 99.4%  
316 0.2% 99.2%  
317 0.4% 99.0%  
318 0.3% 98.6%  
319 0.5% 98%  
320 0.8% 98%  
321 0.5% 97%  
322 0.7% 96%  
323 1.0% 96%  
324 0.7% 95%  
325 1.2% 94%  
326 1.4% 93%  
327 1.4% 91%  
328 2% 90%  
329 2% 88%  
330 2% 86%  
331 3% 84%  
332 3% 81%  
333 3% 78%  
334 3% 75%  
335 3% 73%  
336 3% 70%  
337 4% 67%  
338 3% 62%  
339 6% 59%  
340 3% 53% Median
341 4% 50%  
342 3% 46%  
343 3% 43%  
344 5% 40%  
345 3% 35%  
346 4% 32%  
347 2% 28%  
348 3% 26%  
349 2% 23%  
350 4% 21%  
351 2% 17%  
352 1.4% 15%  
353 2% 13%  
354 1.5% 11%  
355 2% 10% Majority
356 1.3% 8%  
357 1.1% 7%  
358 0.8% 6%  
359 1.3% 5%  
360 0.6% 4%  
361 0.6% 3%  
362 0.5% 2%  
363 0.3% 2%  
364 0.3% 2%  
365 0.3% 1.3%  
366 0.2% 1.0%  
367 0.2% 0.8%  
368 0.1% 0.6%  
369 0.1% 0.5%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.7%  
283 0.1% 99.6%  
284 0.2% 99.5%  
285 0.3% 99.3%  
286 0.3% 99.0%  
287 0.4% 98.6%  
288 0.4% 98%  
289 0.3% 98%  
290 0.4% 97%  
291 0.5% 97%  
292 0.9% 97%  
293 1.4% 96%  
294 2% 94%  
295 2% 92%  
296 2% 90%  
297 1.3% 89%  
298 1.0% 88%  
299 2% 87%  
300 2% 85%  
301 3% 83%  
302 4% 79%  
303 4% 75%  
304 4% 72%  
305 3% 68%  
306 2% 65%  
307 3% 63%  
308 2% 60%  
309 5% 58% Median
310 4% 53%  
311 4% 49%  
312 6% 45%  
313 4% 39% Last Result
314 3% 36%  
315 1.3% 33%  
316 2% 31%  
317 2% 29%  
318 3% 26%  
319 5% 24%  
320 3% 18%  
321 2% 15%  
322 2% 13%  
323 1.0% 11%  
324 0.8% 10%  
325 1.1% 9%  
326 2% 8%  
327 1.4% 6%  
328 1.3% 5%  
329 0.7% 4%  
330 0.7% 3%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.2% 2%  
334 0.2% 1.5%  
335 0.3% 1.2%  
336 0.3% 0.9%  
337 0.2% 0.6%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0.1% 99.6%  
265 0.2% 99.5%  
266 0.2% 99.4%  
267 0.2% 99.2%  
268 0.2% 99.0%  
269 0.3% 98.8%  
270 0.6% 98%  
271 0.4% 98%  
272 1.0% 97%  
273 1.3% 96%  
274 1.1% 95%  
275 0.7% 94%  
276 0.9% 93%  
277 1.1% 93%  
278 1.0% 91%  
279 2% 90%  
280 4% 89%  
281 3% 85%  
282 2% 82%  
283 5% 80%  
284 2% 75%  
285 2% 73%  
286 2% 71%  
287 4% 69%  
288 3% 65%  
289 2% 62%  
290 8% 59%  
291 5% 51% Median
292 3% 46%  
293 3% 43%  
294 4% 40%  
295 2% 36%  
296 1.3% 34%  
297 3% 33%  
298 6% 30%  
299 2% 24%  
300 3% 22%  
301 4% 19%  
302 2% 15%  
303 1.1% 13%  
304 1.2% 11%  
305 1.2% 10%  
306 1.2% 9%  
307 1.2% 8%  
308 1.4% 7%  
309 2% 5%  
310 0.7% 4%  
311 0.7% 3%  
312 0.3% 2%  
313 0.4% 2%  
314 0.3% 2%  
315 0.1% 1.4%  
316 0.3% 1.2%  
317 0.2% 0.9%  
318 0.1% 0.6%  
319 0.1% 0.5%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0.1% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.1% 99.7%  
253 0.1% 99.6%  
254 0.1% 99.5%  
255 0.2% 99.3%  
256 0.3% 99.2%  
257 0.4% 98.8%  
258 0.5% 98%  
259 0.6% 98%  
260 0.8% 97%  
261 0.6% 97%  
262 0.7% 96%  
263 1.0% 95%  
264 1.2% 94%  
265 0.9% 93%  
266 2% 92%  
267 3% 90%  
268 1.4% 87%  
269 3% 85%  
270 3% 83%  
271 2% 80%  
272 2% 78%  
273 3% 76%  
274 4% 72%  
275 3% 69%  
276 5% 66%  
277 5% 61%  
278 3% 56% Median
279 4% 53%  
280 3% 49%  
281 4% 46%  
282 3% 42%  
283 4% 39%  
284 3% 35%  
285 4% 31%  
286 4% 27%  
287 3% 23%  
288 2% 20%  
289 2% 18%  
290 3% 17%  
291 2% 14%  
292 2% 12%  
293 2% 10%  
294 2% 9%  
295 0.9% 7%  
296 1.2% 6%  
297 1.0% 5%  
298 0.5% 4%  
299 0.4% 3%  
300 0.6% 3%  
301 0.5% 2%  
302 0.3% 2%  
303 0.2% 1.3%  
304 0.3% 1.1%  
305 0.1% 0.7%  
306 0.1% 0.6%  
307 0.1% 0.4%  
308 0.1% 0.3%  
309 0.1% 0.3%  
310 0% 0.2%  
311 0% 0.2%  
312 0% 0.1%  
313 0% 0.1%  
314 0% 0.1%  
315 0% 0.1%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.7%  
238 0.2% 99.6%  
239 0.1% 99.4%  
240 0.2% 99.3%  
241 0.3% 99.1%  
242 0.3% 98.9%  
243 0.6% 98.6%  
244 0.6% 98%  
245 0.5% 97%  
246 0.7% 97%  
247 1.0% 96%  
248 1.0% 95%  
249 1.1% 94%  
250 2% 93%  
251 1.3% 92%  
252 3% 90%  
253 2% 88%  
254 2% 85%  
255 3% 84%  
256 3% 81%  
257 3% 78%  
258 2% 75%  
259 3% 72%  
260 3% 69%  
261 3% 66%  
262 6% 63%  
263 4% 57%  
264 3% 53% Median
265 4% 50%  
266 6% 46%  
267 3% 41%  
268 4% 38%  
269 3% 34%  
270 3% 31%  
271 4% 28%  
272 4% 24%  
273 2% 20%  
274 3% 18%  
275 2% 16%  
276 3% 13%  
277 1.4% 11%  
278 1.3% 10%  
279 1.4% 8%  
280 1.4% 7%  
281 1.1% 5%  
282 0.5% 4%  
283 0.7% 4%  
284 0.7% 3%  
285 0.5% 2%  
286 0.4% 2%  
287 0.3% 2%  
288 0.3% 1.2%  
289 0.2% 0.9%  
290 0.2% 0.8%  
291 0.1% 0.5%  
292 0.1% 0.4%  
293 0.1% 0.4%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.8%  
233 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
234 0.1% 99.6%  
235 0.2% 99.5%  
236 0.2% 99.4%  
237 0.2% 99.2%  
238 0.4% 99.0%  
239 0.5% 98.6%  
240 0.4% 98%  
241 0.7% 98%  
242 0.7% 97%  
243 0.9% 96%  
244 1.4% 95%  
245 0.9% 94%  
246 1.3% 93%  
247 1.3% 92%  
248 2% 90%  
249 2% 89%  
250 2% 87%  
251 4% 85%  
252 3% 81%  
253 4% 78%  
254 3% 74%  
255 2% 71%  
256 4% 69%  
257 3% 65%  
258 3% 62%  
259 4% 59%  
260 5% 55% Median
261 5% 51%  
262 5% 45%  
263 2% 41%  
264 3% 38%  
265 4% 35%  
266 2% 31%  
267 4% 28%  
268 2% 25%  
269 4% 23%  
270 3% 19%  
271 2% 16%  
272 2% 14%  
273 2% 12%  
274 2% 10%  
275 2% 9%  
276 1.0% 7%  
277 1.0% 6%  
278 0.8% 5%  
279 0.6% 4%  
280 0.6% 3%  
281 0.6% 3%  
282 0.7% 2%  
283 0.5% 2%  
284 0.2% 1.2%  
285 0.2% 1.0%  
286 0.2% 0.8%  
287 0.1% 0.6%  
288 0.1% 0.5%  
289 0.1% 0.4%  
290 0.1% 0.3%  
291 0.1% 0.2%  
292 0.1% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 99.9%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0% 99.9%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.9%  
179 0% 99.9%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.8%  
185 0% 99.8%  
186 0% 99.8%  
187 0.1% 99.7%  
188 0.1% 99.7%  
189 0.1% 99.6%  
190 0.1% 99.5%  
191 0.2% 99.4%  
192 0.3% 99.2%  
193 0.3% 98.9%  
194 0.4% 98.6%  
195 0.4% 98%  
196 0.7% 98%  
197 0.7% 97%  
198 0.8% 96%  
199 1.3% 96%  
200 1.1% 94%  
201 2% 93%  
202 2% 91%  
203 1.4% 90%  
204 2% 88%  
205 3% 86%  
206 3% 83%  
207 2% 80%  
208 3% 78%  
209 5% 75%  
210 4% 71%  
211 4% 67%  
212 4% 63%  
213 5% 59%  
214 5% 54%  
215 3% 50% Median
216 3% 46%  
217 6% 43%  
218 3% 37%  
219 3% 34%  
220 5% 31%  
221 3% 26%  
222 3% 24% Last Result
223 3% 21%  
224 2% 18%  
225 2% 16%  
226 2% 13%  
227 1.2% 11%  
228 2% 10%  
229 2% 8%  
230 0.9% 6%  
231 1.0% 5%  
232 0.9% 4%  
233 0.7% 3%  
234 0.5% 3%  
235 0.4% 2%  
236 0.5% 2%  
237 0.3% 1.3%  
238 0.2% 1.1%  
239 0.2% 0.8%  
240 0.2% 0.6%  
241 0.1% 0.5%  
242 0.1% 0.4%  
243 0.1% 0.3%  
244 0.1% 0.2%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations