Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 16–20 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 22.0% 20.6–23.5% 20.2–23.9% 19.8–24.3% 19.2–25.0%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 17.8% 16.5–19.2% 16.2–19.6% 15.9–20.0% 15.3–20.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 15.8–18.4% 15.4–18.8% 15.1–19.1% 14.5–19.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.0% 11.9–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.3–14.9% 10.8–15.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.5% 10.3–13.8% 9.9–14.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–9.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.1% 3.5–4.9% 3.3–5.2% 3.2–5.3% 2.9–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 167 156–178 152–181 150–184 145–189
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 135 125–146 122–149 120–151 116–156
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 129 119–139 117–141 115–145 110–149
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 99 90–108 88–110 86–113 82–117
Alternative für Deutschland 94 91 83–100 80–102 78–104 75–109
Die Linke 69 53 47–61 45–63 44–65 41–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 35 30–40 28–42 27–43 25–46

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
140 0% 100%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.1% 99.7%  
145 0.2% 99.6%  
146 0.3% 99.5%  
147 0.2% 99.2%  
148 0.5% 98.9%  
149 0.6% 98%  
150 0.8% 98%  
151 0.6% 97%  
152 1.4% 96%  
153 1.1% 95% Last Result
154 2% 94%  
155 2% 92%  
156 3% 90%  
157 3% 87%  
158 2% 85%  
159 4% 82%  
160 3% 78%  
161 4% 75%  
162 3% 71%  
163 5% 68%  
164 4% 63%  
165 5% 59%  
166 4% 54%  
167 6% 50% Median
168 3% 44%  
169 4% 41%  
170 4% 36%  
171 5% 32%  
172 4% 28%  
173 4% 24%  
174 3% 20%  
175 3% 17%  
176 3% 15%  
177 2% 12%  
178 2% 10%  
179 1.0% 8%  
180 2% 7%  
181 0.6% 5%  
182 1.3% 5%  
183 0.5% 3%  
184 0.8% 3%  
185 0.4% 2%  
186 0.4% 1.5%  
187 0.3% 1.1%  
188 0.2% 0.8%  
189 0.1% 0.6%  
190 0.1% 0.4%  
191 0.1% 0.3%  
192 0% 0.2%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.2% 99.7%  
116 0.2% 99.5%  
117 0.4% 99.3%  
118 0.5% 98.9%  
119 0.6% 98%  
120 0.8% 98%  
121 1.1% 97%  
122 2% 96%  
123 2% 94%  
124 2% 92%  
125 2% 90%  
126 3% 88%  
127 3% 85%  
128 4% 82%  
129 4% 78%  
130 4% 74%  
131 4% 70%  
132 5% 66%  
133 4% 61%  
134 4% 57%  
135 5% 53% Median
136 5% 48%  
137 4% 43%  
138 4% 39%  
139 5% 35%  
140 4% 30%  
141 4% 26%  
142 3% 22%  
143 4% 20%  
144 3% 16%  
145 3% 13%  
146 2% 11%  
147 2% 9%  
148 1.4% 7%  
149 1.3% 5%  
150 0.8% 4%  
151 0.9% 3%  
152 0.5% 2%  
153 0.5% 2%  
154 0.3% 1.2%  
155 0.3% 0.9%  
156 0.2% 0.6%  
157 0.1% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.2% 99.7%  
110 0.3% 99.5%  
111 0.3% 99.2%  
112 0.3% 98.9%  
113 0.4% 98.6%  
114 0.5% 98%  
115 0.9% 98%  
116 2% 97%  
117 2% 95%  
118 2% 93%  
119 3% 91%  
120 2% 88%  
121 2% 86%  
122 3% 85%  
123 4% 82%  
124 5% 78%  
125 7% 72%  
126 5% 66%  
127 4% 61%  
128 4% 56%  
129 3% 53% Median
130 6% 50%  
131 5% 44%  
132 6% 38%  
133 6% 32%  
134 4% 26%  
135 3% 22%  
136 2% 20%  
137 2% 18%  
138 3% 15%  
139 3% 12%  
140 3% 9%  
141 1.5% 6%  
142 1.0% 5%  
143 0.6% 4%  
144 0.5% 3%  
145 0.6% 3%  
146 0.7% 2%  
147 0.5% 1.5%  
148 0.4% 1.0%  
149 0.2% 0.6%  
150 0.1% 0.4%  
151 0.1% 0.3%  
152 0% 0.2%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.7%  
82 0.2% 99.6%  
83 0.3% 99.3%  
84 0.6% 99.0%  
85 0.7% 98%  
86 1.0% 98%  
87 1.1% 97%  
88 2% 95%  
89 2% 94%  
90 3% 92%  
91 3% 89%  
92 4% 86%  
93 4% 82%  
94 6% 78%  
95 5% 72%  
96 5% 68%  
97 6% 63%  
98 5% 56%  
99 6% 52% Median
100 6% 46%  
101 5% 40%  
102 5% 34%  
103 5% 29%  
104 5% 24%  
105 3% 19%  
106 3% 16%  
107 3% 13%  
108 2% 10%  
109 2% 8%  
110 2% 6%  
111 1.2% 5%  
112 0.9% 4%  
113 0.8% 3%  
114 0.5% 2%  
115 0.5% 1.5%  
116 0.3% 1.0%  
117 0.2% 0.7%  
118 0.2% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0.1% 0.2%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0.1%  
124 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.3% 99.5%  
76 0.4% 99.2%  
77 0.6% 98.9%  
78 0.9% 98%  
79 1.3% 97%  
80 1.4% 96%  
81 2% 95%  
82 3% 93%  
83 3% 91%  
84 4% 87%  
85 3% 83%  
86 4% 80%  
87 5% 75%  
88 7% 70%  
89 6% 64%  
90 5% 57%  
91 6% 53% Median
92 5% 47%  
93 7% 42%  
94 6% 35% Last Result
95 4% 29%  
96 4% 25%  
97 4% 21%  
98 4% 17%  
99 3% 13%  
100 3% 10%  
101 2% 8%  
102 1.4% 6%  
103 2% 5%  
104 0.9% 3%  
105 0.6% 2%  
106 0.4% 2%  
107 0.4% 1.3%  
108 0.3% 0.9%  
109 0.2% 0.6%  
110 0.1% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.4% 99.6%  
42 0.5% 99.2%  
43 1.0% 98.7%  
44 1.4% 98%  
45 2% 96%  
46 3% 94%  
47 3% 92%  
48 4% 88%  
49 5% 84%  
50 7% 79%  
51 7% 72%  
52 8% 64%  
53 8% 57% Median
54 7% 49%  
55 7% 42%  
56 6% 35%  
57 6% 28%  
58 5% 23%  
59 4% 18%  
60 4% 14%  
61 3% 10%  
62 2% 7%  
63 1.4% 5%  
64 1.2% 4%  
65 0.9% 3%  
66 0.5% 2%  
67 0.4% 1.1%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.3% 99.7%  
26 0.7% 99.4%  
27 2% 98.6%  
28 2% 97%  
29 4% 95%  
30 5% 91%  
31 7% 86%  
32 8% 79%  
33 11% 71%  
34 9% 60%  
35 9% 50% Median
36 9% 42%  
37 8% 33%  
38 6% 25%  
39 5% 18%  
40 4% 13%  
41 3% 9%  
42 2% 6%  
43 2% 4%  
44 1.0% 2%  
45 0.5% 1.3%  
46 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
47 0.2% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 466 100% 453–478 450–481 447–484 441–490
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 435 100% 423–448 419–451 416–454 410–460
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 398 100% 385–410 382–414 378–418 372–424
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 394 100% 382–407 378–411 375–414 368–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 360 67% 346–373 343–376 340–380 335–386
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 349 33% 336–363 333–366 329–369 323–374
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 336 4% 324–349 320–353 317–356 311–362
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 300 0% 286–311 283–316 280–319 273–324
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 295 0% 283–309 279–312 276–315 270–321
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 269 0% 257–282 253–285 250–289 244–294
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 265 0% 253–277 250–282 247–285 241–291
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 261 0% 248–274 245–277 242–281 237–286
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 220 0% 208–233 205–236 201–239 196–244

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0.1% 99.9%  
438 0.1% 99.8%  
439 0% 99.7%  
440 0.1% 99.7%  
441 0.2% 99.5%  
442 0.2% 99.4%  
443 0.3% 99.2%  
444 0.3% 98.9%  
445 0.3% 98.6%  
446 0.7% 98%  
447 0.8% 98%  
448 0.4% 97%  
449 1.1% 96%  
450 1.1% 95%  
451 1.1% 94%  
452 2% 93%  
453 2% 91%  
454 1.1% 90%  
455 3% 88%  
456 3% 85%  
457 1.4% 82%  
458 4% 81%  
459 4% 77%  
460 2% 74%  
461 5% 72%  
462 4% 66%  
463 2% 62%  
464 6% 60%  
465 3% 53%  
466 3% 50% Last Result, Median
467 7% 47%  
468 3% 41%  
469 2% 38%  
470 6% 35%  
471 3% 29%  
472 2% 26%  
473 5% 24%  
474 2% 19%  
475 2% 18%  
476 3% 15%  
477 1.3% 12%  
478 2% 10%  
479 3% 9%  
480 0.5% 6%  
481 1.1% 5%  
482 1.0% 4%  
483 0.3% 3%  
484 0.8% 3%  
485 0.8% 2%  
486 0.2% 2%  
487 0.4% 1.3%  
488 0.3% 0.9%  
489 0.1% 0.6%  
490 0.2% 0.6%  
491 0.1% 0.4%  
492 0% 0.3%  
493 0.1% 0.3%  
494 0.1% 0.2%  
495 0% 0.1%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0.1%  
500 0% 0.1%  
501 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.9%  
407 0.1% 99.8%  
408 0.1% 99.7%  
409 0.1% 99.7%  
410 0.2% 99.6%  
411 0.2% 99.4%  
412 0.2% 99.2%  
413 0.3% 99.0%  
414 0.3% 98.6%  
415 0.4% 98%  
416 0.6% 98%  
417 0.7% 97%  
418 0.8% 97%  
419 0.8% 96%  
420 1.2% 95%  
421 1.2% 94%  
422 1.4% 93%  
423 2% 91%  
424 2% 89%  
425 2% 87%  
426 2% 85%  
427 3% 82%  
428 4% 80%  
429 3% 76%  
430 4% 73%  
431 5% 69%  
432 3% 64%  
433 4% 61%  
434 4% 57%  
435 4% 52%  
436 4% 48% Median
437 4% 44%  
438 4% 40%  
439 3% 36%  
440 4% 33%  
441 3% 29%  
442 3% 26%  
443 3% 23%  
444 3% 20%  
445 2% 17%  
446 3% 15%  
447 2% 12%  
448 2% 11%  
449 2% 9%  
450 0.9% 7%  
451 2% 6%  
452 0.7% 5%  
453 0.9% 4%  
454 0.6% 3%  
455 0.5% 2%  
456 0.5% 2%  
457 0.4% 1.5%  
458 0.3% 1.1%  
459 0.2% 0.8%  
460 0.1% 0.6%  
461 0.1% 0.5%  
462 0.1% 0.4%  
463 0.1% 0.3%  
464 0.1% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.2%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.8%  
370 0.1% 99.8%  
371 0.1% 99.7%  
372 0.1% 99.6%  
373 0.1% 99.5%  
374 0.2% 99.3%  
375 0.3% 99.1%  
376 0.3% 98.8%  
377 0.5% 98%  
378 0.5% 98%  
379 0.7% 97%  
380 0.7% 97%  
381 1.0% 96%  
382 1.4% 95%  
383 1.2% 94%  
384 2% 92%  
385 1.3% 90%  
386 2% 89%  
387 2% 87%  
388 3% 85%  
389 2% 81%  
390 3% 80%  
391 4% 76%  
392 3% 73%  
393 3% 70% Last Result
394 4% 67%  
395 4% 63%  
396 4% 59%  
397 3% 56%  
398 4% 52% Median
399 5% 49%  
400 3% 44%  
401 4% 40%  
402 3% 36%  
403 4% 33%  
404 4% 29%  
405 3% 26%  
406 3% 22%  
407 2% 19%  
408 3% 17%  
409 2% 14%  
410 2% 12%  
411 2% 10%  
412 1.2% 8%  
413 1.3% 7%  
414 1.2% 6%  
415 0.8% 5%  
416 0.9% 4%  
417 0.5% 3%  
418 0.7% 3%  
419 0.4% 2%  
420 0.3% 2%  
421 0.3% 1.2%  
422 0.2% 0.9%  
423 0.2% 0.7%  
424 0.1% 0.5%  
425 0.1% 0.4%  
426 0.1% 0.3%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0.1% 99.8%  
367 0.1% 99.7%  
368 0.2% 99.7%  
369 0.1% 99.5%  
370 0.2% 99.3%  
371 0.3% 99.1%  
372 0.2% 98.8%  
373 0.4% 98.6%  
374 0.4% 98%  
375 0.6% 98%  
376 0.8% 97%  
377 0.7% 96%  
378 1.2% 96%  
379 0.8% 94%  
380 2% 94%  
381 2% 92%  
382 2% 90%  
383 2% 88%  
384 2% 86%  
385 2% 84%  
386 3% 82%  
387 3% 78%  
388 3% 75%  
389 3% 72%  
390 4% 68%  
391 4% 65%  
392 4% 61%  
393 4% 56%  
394 4% 53%  
395 4% 49% Median
396 4% 45%  
397 4% 41%  
398 4% 37%  
399 3% 34%  
400 2% 30%  
401 4% 28%  
402 3% 24%  
403 3% 22%  
404 3% 19%  
405 2% 16%  
406 2% 14%  
407 2% 12%  
408 2% 10%  
409 1.3% 8%  
410 1.2% 7%  
411 1.0% 5%  
412 0.9% 4%  
413 0.9% 4%  
414 0.5% 3%  
415 0.6% 2%  
416 0.4% 2%  
417 0.2% 1.2%  
418 0.2% 1.0%  
419 0.2% 0.8%  
420 0.2% 0.6%  
421 0.1% 0.5%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0.1% 0.3%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.1% 99.6%  
335 0.1% 99.5%  
336 0.2% 99.4%  
337 0.3% 99.2%  
338 0.3% 98.9%  
339 0.5% 98.6%  
340 0.6% 98%  
341 0.8% 97%  
342 1.1% 97%  
343 1.2% 95%  
344 1.4% 94%  
345 2% 93%  
346 2% 91%  
347 2% 89%  
348 2% 88%  
349 3% 86%  
350 3% 83%  
351 2% 80%  
352 4% 78%  
353 3% 73%  
354 3% 70%  
355 3% 67% Majority
356 2% 64%  
357 3% 61%  
358 3% 59%  
359 4% 56%  
360 3% 52% Median
361 4% 49%  
362 4% 45%  
363 4% 41%  
364 3% 38%  
365 3% 34%  
366 4% 31%  
367 2% 27%  
368 4% 25%  
369 2% 22%  
370 3% 19%  
371 3% 17%  
372 2% 14%  
373 2% 11%  
374 2% 10%  
375 1.4% 7%  
376 1.0% 6%  
377 0.7% 5%  
378 0.6% 4%  
379 0.8% 4%  
380 0.6% 3%  
381 0.6% 2%  
382 0.4% 2%  
383 0.3% 1.2%  
384 0.2% 0.9%  
385 0.2% 0.7%  
386 0.1% 0.5%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.8%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.7%  
323 0.1% 99.6%  
324 0.2% 99.5%  
325 0.2% 99.3%  
326 0.3% 99.1%  
327 0.4% 98.8%  
328 0.6% 98%  
329 0.6% 98%  
330 0.8% 97%  
331 0.6% 96%  
332 0.7% 96%  
333 1.0% 95%  
334 1.4% 94%  
335 2% 93%  
336 2% 90%  
337 2% 89%  
338 3% 86%  
339 3% 83%  
340 2% 81%  
341 4% 78%  
342 2% 75%  
343 4% 73%  
344 3% 69%  
345 3% 66%  
346 4% 62%  
347 4% 59%  
348 4% 55%  
349 3% 51% Median
350 4% 48%  
351 3% 44%  
352 3% 41%  
353 2% 39%  
354 3% 36%  
355 3% 33% Majority
356 3% 30%  
357 4% 27%  
358 2% 22%  
359 3% 20%  
360 3% 17%  
361 2% 14%  
362 2% 12%  
363 2% 11%  
364 2% 9%  
365 1.4% 7%  
366 1.2% 6%  
367 1.1% 5%  
368 0.8% 3%  
369 0.6% 3%  
370 0.5% 2%  
371 0.3% 1.4%  
372 0.3% 1.1%  
373 0.2% 0.8%  
374 0.1% 0.6%  
375 0.1% 0.5%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.7%  
311 0.2% 99.6%  
312 0.2% 99.4%  
313 0.2% 99.2%  
314 0.3% 99.0%  
315 0.3% 98.7%  
316 0.5% 98%  
317 0.5% 98%  
318 0.8% 97%  
319 0.9% 97%  
320 1.1% 96%  
321 1.1% 95%  
322 1.2% 93%  
323 1.2% 92%  
324 2% 91%  
325 2% 89%  
326 3% 87%  
327 3% 84%  
328 3% 81%  
329 2% 78%  
330 3% 76%  
331 3% 73%  
332 4% 70%  
333 5% 66%  
334 5% 61%  
335 4% 56%  
336 3% 52%  
337 3% 50% Median
338 4% 46%  
339 3% 42%  
340 4% 39%  
341 6% 35%  
342 4% 30%  
343 3% 25%  
344 3% 22%  
345 2% 19%  
346 2% 18%  
347 2% 16%  
348 2% 14%  
349 3% 12%  
350 2% 9%  
351 2% 8%  
352 0.7% 6%  
353 1.0% 5%  
354 0.6% 4%  
355 0.6% 4% Majority
356 0.6% 3%  
357 0.5% 2%  
358 0.6% 2%  
359 0.5% 1.4%  
360 0.2% 0.9%  
361 0.2% 0.7%  
362 0.1% 0.6%  
363 0.1% 0.5%  
364 0.1% 0.4%  
365 0.1% 0.3%  
366 0.1% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.7%  
273 0.1% 99.6%  
274 0.1% 99.5%  
275 0.2% 99.4%  
276 0.3% 99.2%  
277 0.3% 98.9%  
278 0.2% 98.6%  
279 0.4% 98%  
280 0.6% 98%  
281 0.9% 97%  
282 0.5% 97%  
283 1.2% 96%  
284 2% 95%  
285 2% 93%  
286 2% 92%  
287 2% 89%  
288 3% 87%  
289 3% 84%  
290 3% 81%  
291 2% 78%  
292 2% 76%  
293 4% 73%  
294 3% 69%  
295 3% 67%  
296 3% 64%  
297 3% 61%  
298 3% 58%  
299 5% 55% Median
300 3% 50%  
301 4% 47%  
302 5% 43%  
303 4% 38%  
304 5% 34%  
305 4% 30%  
306 4% 26%  
307 4% 22%  
308 3% 18%  
309 2% 15%  
310 2% 13%  
311 2% 11%  
312 1.2% 10%  
313 1.4% 8% Last Result
314 1.0% 7%  
315 0.7% 6%  
316 0.8% 5%  
317 0.9% 4%  
318 0.7% 3%  
319 0.5% 3%  
320 0.6% 2%  
321 0.4% 2%  
322 0.4% 1.3%  
323 0.3% 0.9%  
324 0.2% 0.7%  
325 0.1% 0.5%  
326 0.1% 0.4%  
327 0.1% 0.3%  
328 0% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0.1% 99.9%  
267 0.1% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.8%  
269 0.1% 99.7%  
270 0.2% 99.6%  
271 0.1% 99.4%  
272 0.3% 99.3%  
273 0.4% 99.0%  
274 0.3% 98.6%  
275 0.5% 98%  
276 0.6% 98%  
277 0.5% 97%  
278 1.2% 97%  
279 0.6% 95%  
280 1.3% 95%  
281 2% 94%  
282 1.2% 92%  
283 2% 91%  
284 2% 88%  
285 2% 86%  
286 2% 84%  
287 3% 82%  
288 4% 79%  
289 3% 75%  
290 5% 72%  
291 2% 68%  
292 5% 65%  
293 4% 61%  
294 3% 57%  
295 4% 53%  
296 3% 49% Median
297 5% 46%  
298 3% 42%  
299 4% 38%  
300 3% 35%  
301 3% 32%  
302 4% 29%  
303 3% 25%  
304 3% 22%  
305 2% 20%  
306 2% 17%  
307 3% 15%  
308 2% 12%  
309 0.9% 10%  
310 2% 9%  
311 1.4% 7%  
312 2% 6%  
313 0.8% 4%  
314 0.5% 3%  
315 0.8% 3%  
316 0.4% 2%  
317 0.5% 2%  
318 0.3% 1.3%  
319 0.2% 1.0%  
320 0.2% 0.8%  
321 0.1% 0.6%  
322 0.1% 0.5%  
323 0.1% 0.3%  
324 0.1% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.3% 99.6%  
245 0.1% 99.4%  
246 0.4% 99.2%  
247 0.4% 98.8%  
248 0.3% 98%  
249 0.6% 98%  
250 0.5% 98%  
251 0.6% 97%  
252 1.0% 96%  
253 1.1% 95%  
254 2% 94%  
255 0.9% 93%  
256 2% 92%  
257 2% 90%  
258 2% 88%  
259 5% 86%  
260 2% 81%  
261 4% 79%  
262 3% 76%  
263 3% 72%  
264 5% 69%  
265 2% 64%  
266 4% 62%  
267 3% 57%  
268 3% 54%  
269 5% 51% Median
270 3% 47%  
271 6% 44%  
272 4% 38%  
273 2% 34%  
274 3% 31%  
275 3% 28%  
276 3% 26%  
277 3% 22%  
278 2% 19%  
279 3% 17%  
280 1.3% 15%  
281 2% 13%  
282 1.4% 11%  
283 2% 10%  
284 2% 8%  
285 0.8% 6%  
286 0.9% 5%  
287 0.7% 4%  
288 0.5% 3%  
289 1.3% 3%  
290 0.3% 1.5%  
291 0.3% 1.2%  
292 0.2% 0.9%  
293 0.2% 0.7%  
294 0.1% 0.6%  
295 0.1% 0.4%  
296 0.1% 0.3%  
297 0.1% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100% Last Result
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0.2% 99.6%  
242 0.3% 99.4%  
243 0.3% 99.1%  
244 0.4% 98.8%  
245 0.5% 98%  
246 0.4% 98%  
247 0.4% 98%  
248 0.5% 97%  
249 1.1% 97%  
250 0.9% 96%  
251 2% 95%  
252 2% 93%  
253 2% 91%  
254 3% 89%  
255 3% 85%  
256 2% 82%  
257 1.4% 80%  
258 2% 79%  
259 3% 77%  
260 3% 74%  
261 4% 71%  
262 5% 67%  
263 6% 62%  
264 6% 56%  
265 4% 50%  
266 4% 46% Median
267 3% 42%  
268 3% 40%  
269 2% 37%  
270 2% 34%  
271 4% 32%  
272 4% 28%  
273 4% 24%  
274 3% 20%  
275 3% 16%  
276 2% 13%  
277 2% 11%  
278 1.2% 10%  
279 0.5% 8%  
280 1.1% 8%  
281 2% 7%  
282 1.1% 5%  
283 0.7% 4%  
284 0.9% 3%  
285 0.8% 3%  
286 0.6% 2%  
287 0.3% 1.2%  
288 0.2% 0.9%  
289 0.1% 0.7%  
290 0.1% 0.7%  
291 0.1% 0.5%  
292 0.1% 0.4%  
293 0.1% 0.4%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0.1% 99.7%  
237 0.2% 99.6%  
238 0.3% 99.4%  
239 0.3% 99.1%  
240 0.3% 98.7%  
241 0.6% 98%  
242 0.7% 98%  
243 1.0% 97%  
244 0.8% 96%  
245 1.3% 95%  
246 1.3% 94%  
247 2% 93%  
248 2% 91%  
249 2% 89%  
250 3% 88%  
251 3% 84%  
252 2% 82%  
253 3% 80%  
254 3% 76%  
255 3% 74%  
256 4% 71%  
257 3% 67%  
258 3% 64%  
259 5% 61%  
260 3% 56%  
261 5% 53% Median
262 4% 48%  
263 3% 44%  
264 3% 41%  
265 3% 38%  
266 5% 34%  
267 4% 29%  
268 2% 25%  
269 3% 23%  
270 2% 20%  
271 4% 18%  
272 2% 14%  
273 2% 12%  
274 1.5% 10%  
275 1.2% 9%  
276 2% 8%  
277 1.1% 6%  
278 0.7% 5%  
279 1.0% 4%  
280 0.3% 3%  
281 0.6% 3%  
282 0.4% 2%  
283 0.3% 1.5%  
284 0.4% 1.2%  
285 0.2% 0.8%  
286 0.1% 0.6%  
287 0.1% 0.5%  
288 0.1% 0.4%  
289 0.1% 0.2%  
290 0.1% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
184 0% 100%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.8%  
195 0.1% 99.7%  
196 0.1% 99.6%  
197 0.2% 99.5%  
198 0.2% 99.3%  
199 0.4% 99.0%  
200 0.5% 98.6%  
201 0.7% 98%  
202 0.6% 97%  
203 0.6% 97%  
204 0.9% 96%  
205 1.1% 95%  
206 2% 94%  
207 1.2% 92%  
208 2% 91%  
209 2% 89%  
210 3% 87%  
211 4% 84%  
212 3% 80%  
213 3% 77%  
214 3% 74%  
215 3% 71%  
216 4% 68%  
217 4% 64%  
218 4% 60%  
219 3% 56%  
220 3% 53% Median
221 4% 49%  
222 5% 45% Last Result
223 3% 40%  
224 3% 37%  
225 5% 33%  
226 4% 28%  
227 3% 24%  
228 3% 21%  
229 2% 18%  
230 2% 16%  
231 2% 14%  
232 2% 12%  
233 2% 10%  
234 1.0% 8%  
235 1.1% 7%  
236 1.4% 6%  
237 1.2% 5%  
238 1.0% 4%  
239 0.6% 3%  
240 0.4% 2%  
241 0.3% 1.5%  
242 0.3% 1.1%  
243 0.3% 0.8%  
244 0.1% 0.6%  
245 0.1% 0.4%  
246 0.1% 0.3%  
247 0.1% 0.3%  
248 0.1% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations