Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 20–23 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 23.0% 21.8–24.2% 21.5–24.5% 21.2–24.8% 20.7–25.4%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 15.0–19.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.0% 12.1–14.0% 11.8–14.2% 11.6–14.5% 11.2–15.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 173 164–182 162–184 160–186 155–191
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 135 127–143 125–145 123–148 119–151
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 127 119–136 118–138 115–140 112–143
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 97 90–104 88–107 87–108 84–112
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 76–89 74–91 73–93 70–96
Die Linke 69 53 48–58 46–60 45–61 43–64
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 41 37–45 36–47 34–48 32–50

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
154 0.2% 99.8%  
155 0.3% 99.6%  
156 0.4% 99.3%  
157 0.3% 98.9%  
158 0.4% 98.5%  
159 0.5% 98%  
160 0.6% 98%  
161 1.0% 97%  
162 2% 96%  
163 3% 94%  
164 4% 91%  
165 4% 87%  
166 4% 83%  
167 4% 79%  
168 3% 76%  
169 2% 72%  
170 4% 70%  
171 5% 67%  
172 5% 62%  
173 12% 57% Median
174 8% 45%  
175 6% 37%  
176 5% 31%  
177 4% 26%  
178 3% 22%  
179 3% 18%  
180 3% 16%  
181 2% 13%  
182 3% 11%  
183 3% 8%  
184 1.3% 6%  
185 2% 5%  
186 0.9% 3%  
187 0.7% 2%  
188 0.4% 1.4%  
189 0.4% 1.0%  
190 0.1% 0.6%  
191 0.2% 0.5%  
192 0.1% 0.3%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0.1% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.3% 99.7%  
120 0.4% 99.4%  
121 0.5% 99.0%  
122 0.6% 98.5%  
123 0.9% 98%  
124 1.4% 97%  
125 2% 96%  
126 3% 93%  
127 3% 91%  
128 3% 88%  
129 4% 84%  
130 5% 81%  
131 7% 76%  
132 5% 69%  
133 7% 64%  
134 5% 57%  
135 6% 52% Median
136 8% 46%  
137 6% 38%  
138 6% 32%  
139 5% 26%  
140 3% 21%  
141 3% 18%  
142 3% 15%  
143 3% 12%  
144 3% 9%  
145 1.2% 6%  
146 1.0% 5%  
147 1.1% 4%  
148 0.8% 3%  
149 0.7% 2%  
150 0.4% 1.1%  
151 0.2% 0.7%  
152 0.2% 0.5%  
153 0.1% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0.1% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.2% 99.8%  
112 0.2% 99.6%  
113 0.4% 99.4%  
114 0.7% 99.1%  
115 1.1% 98%  
116 0.8% 97%  
117 1.0% 96%  
118 3% 95%  
119 3% 93%  
120 4% 90%  
121 4% 86%  
122 2% 82%  
123 4% 80%  
124 7% 76%  
125 9% 69%  
126 6% 61%  
127 6% 55% Median
128 4% 49%  
129 6% 45%  
130 8% 39%  
131 6% 31%  
132 4% 25%  
133 4% 21%  
134 3% 17%  
135 4% 14%  
136 3% 11%  
137 2% 8%  
138 2% 6%  
139 1.0% 4%  
140 0.9% 3%  
141 0.7% 2%  
142 0.5% 1.3%  
143 0.3% 0.7%  
144 0.2% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 0.3% 99.6%  
85 0.5% 99.3%  
86 0.8% 98.8%  
87 1.1% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 2% 95%  
90 3% 93%  
91 3% 90%  
92 5% 86%  
93 5% 81%  
94 7% 76%  
95 7% 69%  
96 7% 62%  
97 6% 55% Median
98 7% 48%  
99 7% 41%  
100 7% 34%  
101 5% 27%  
102 5% 23%  
103 4% 17%  
104 3% 13%  
105 3% 10%  
106 2% 7%  
107 1.4% 5%  
108 1.3% 4%  
109 0.8% 2%  
110 0.6% 2%  
111 0.4% 1.0%  
112 0.2% 0.6%  
113 0.1% 0.4%  
114 0.1% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.6% 99.4%  
72 0.8% 98.8%  
73 1.4% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 3% 95%  
76 3% 92%  
77 4% 89%  
78 5% 85%  
79 6% 79%  
80 7% 74%  
81 8% 66%  
82 9% 58% Median
83 8% 49%  
84 7% 42%  
85 6% 34%  
86 6% 28%  
87 5% 22%  
88 5% 17%  
89 4% 12%  
90 2% 9%  
91 2% 7%  
92 1.3% 4%  
93 1.2% 3%  
94 0.6% 2% Last Result
95 0.6% 1.3%  
96 0.3% 0.8%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.7% 99.5%  
44 1.0% 98.8%  
45 1.5% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 3% 93%  
48 4% 90%  
49 6% 86%  
50 6% 80%  
51 9% 74%  
52 8% 66%  
53 11% 58% Median
54 11% 47%  
55 8% 36%  
56 10% 28%  
57 6% 19%  
58 4% 12%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.3% 3%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.2%  
64 0.4% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.5%  
34 1.5% 98%  
35 0.6% 96%  
36 6% 96%  
37 11% 90%  
38 7% 79%  
39 2% 72%  
40 12% 70%  
41 20% 58% Median
42 8% 37%  
43 2% 29%  
44 10% 27%  
45 10% 18%  
46 3% 8% Last Result
47 0.6% 5%  
48 2% 5%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.3% 0.7%  
51 0.1% 0.4%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 476 100% 465–486 464–488 460–491 456–495
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 445 100% 436–456 433–458 431–461 426–465
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 401 100% 391–411 388–414 386–416 381–421
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 397 100% 388–408 385–411 383–413 377–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 355 53% 346–366 343–369 340–372 336–377
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 354 47% 343–363 340–366 337–369 332–373
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 349 23% 338–358 335–361 333–364 328–369
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 303 0% 293–314 291–317 288–319 283–324
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 301 0% 290–310 287–313 284–315 280–320
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 273 0% 263–283 260–286 258–289 253–294
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 270 0% 260–280 258–283 255–285 251–290
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 258 0% 249–268 246–271 244–274 239–278
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 226 0% 216–236 214–238 212–240 206–244

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
451 0% 100%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0.1% 99.9%  
454 0.1% 99.8%  
455 0.1% 99.7%  
456 0.1% 99.6%  
457 0.1% 99.5%  
458 0.5% 99.3%  
459 0.8% 98.9%  
460 0.7% 98%  
461 0.4% 97%  
462 0.5% 97%  
463 1.4% 97%  
464 3% 95%  
465 3% 93%  
466 1.3% 90% Last Result
467 1.1% 89%  
468 3% 87%  
469 4% 85%  
470 6% 81%  
471 4% 75%  
472 2% 71%  
473 3% 69%  
474 6% 66%  
475 7% 60%  
476 7% 53% Median
477 4% 46%  
478 3% 42%  
479 4% 39%  
480 9% 36%  
481 5% 27%  
482 3% 21%  
483 2% 19%  
484 3% 17%  
485 4% 14%  
486 3% 10%  
487 2% 7%  
488 0.7% 5%  
489 0.7% 5%  
490 1.1% 4%  
491 1.2% 3%  
492 0.6% 2%  
493 0.2% 1.0%  
494 0.1% 0.7%  
495 0.2% 0.6%  
496 0.2% 0.4%  
497 0.1% 0.2%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0.1%  
500 0% 0.1%  
501 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
421 0.1% 100%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0.1% 99.9%  
424 0.1% 99.8%  
425 0.1% 99.7%  
426 0.2% 99.6%  
427 0.3% 99.5%  
428 0.4% 99.2%  
429 0.4% 98.8%  
430 0.7% 98%  
431 0.9% 98%  
432 1.2% 97%  
433 0.6% 96%  
434 3% 95%  
435 1.1% 92%  
436 3% 91%  
437 3% 88%  
438 2% 85%  
439 4% 83%  
440 3% 79%  
441 4% 76%  
442 3% 72%  
443 3% 69%  
444 10% 66%  
445 6% 56%  
446 5% 49% Median
447 3% 44%  
448 6% 41%  
449 4% 36%  
450 4% 32%  
451 6% 28%  
452 3% 22%  
453 4% 20%  
454 3% 15%  
455 2% 13%  
456 2% 10%  
457 3% 9%  
458 2% 6%  
459 1.2% 4%  
460 0.6% 3%  
461 1.0% 3%  
462 0.5% 2%  
463 0.3% 1.2%  
464 0.3% 0.9%  
465 0.2% 0.6%  
466 0.1% 0.5%  
467 0.1% 0.3%  
468 0.1% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.7%  
381 0.1% 99.6%  
382 0.5% 99.5%  
383 0.3% 99.0%  
384 0.4% 98.7%  
385 0.7% 98%  
386 0.8% 98%  
387 1.1% 97%  
388 1.3% 96%  
389 2% 94%  
390 2% 92%  
391 2% 90%  
392 3% 88%  
393 3% 85% Last Result
394 4% 82%  
395 4% 79%  
396 6% 75%  
397 4% 69%  
398 5% 65%  
399 4% 61%  
400 5% 56% Median
401 9% 51%  
402 3% 42%  
403 4% 39%  
404 5% 35%  
405 4% 30%  
406 4% 26%  
407 4% 22%  
408 3% 19%  
409 3% 16%  
410 2% 13%  
411 2% 11%  
412 2% 9%  
413 2% 7%  
414 2% 6%  
415 1.1% 4%  
416 0.6% 3%  
417 0.5% 2%  
418 0.5% 2%  
419 0.4% 1.4%  
420 0.3% 0.9%  
421 0.1% 0.6%  
422 0.2% 0.5%  
423 0.1% 0.3%  
424 0.1% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0.1% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.8%  
376 0.1% 99.8%  
377 0.2% 99.7%  
378 0.2% 99.5%  
379 0.3% 99.3%  
380 0.4% 98.9%  
381 0.4% 98.5%  
382 0.6% 98%  
383 0.9% 98%  
384 2% 97%  
385 1.2% 95%  
386 1.0% 94%  
387 2% 93%  
388 3% 91%  
389 4% 88%  
390 2% 84%  
391 2% 82%  
392 5% 80%  
393 9% 76%  
394 3% 67%  
395 2% 63%  
396 3% 62%  
397 11% 59% Median
398 5% 47%  
399 3% 42%  
400 2% 39%  
401 5% 37%  
402 7% 32%  
403 3% 25%  
404 3% 22%  
405 3% 19%  
406 3% 16%  
407 3% 13%  
408 2% 11%  
409 2% 9%  
410 1.1% 7%  
411 1.0% 6%  
412 1.2% 5%  
413 1.2% 3%  
414 0.5% 2%  
415 0.2% 2%  
416 0.5% 1.4%  
417 0.3% 0.9%  
418 0.2% 0.6%  
419 0.1% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.3%  
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0.1% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.9%  
333 0.1% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.8%  
335 0.2% 99.7%  
336 0.2% 99.5%  
337 0.3% 99.3%  
338 0.3% 99.0%  
339 0.6% 98.8%  
340 0.9% 98%  
341 1.0% 97%  
342 1.1% 96%  
343 1.1% 95%  
344 2% 94%  
345 2% 92%  
346 2% 90%  
347 3% 88%  
348 3% 86%  
349 3% 83%  
350 5% 80%  
351 4% 75%  
352 8% 70%  
353 5% 62%  
354 5% 58%  
355 4% 53% Median, Majority
356 4% 49%  
357 5% 45%  
358 4% 40%  
359 4% 36%  
360 5% 32%  
361 4% 27%  
362 3% 23%  
363 2% 20%  
364 4% 18%  
365 3% 14%  
366 2% 12%  
367 2% 10%  
368 2% 7%  
369 1.3% 6%  
370 0.8% 5%  
371 0.7% 4%  
372 0.8% 3%  
373 0.5% 2%  
374 0.6% 2%  
375 0.4% 1.2%  
376 0.2% 0.8%  
377 0.2% 0.5%  
378 0.1% 0.4%  
379 0.1% 0.3%  
380 0.1% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0.1% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.8%  
331 0.1% 99.7%  
332 0.2% 99.6%  
333 0.2% 99.5%  
334 0.4% 99.2%  
335 0.6% 98.8%  
336 0.5% 98%  
337 0.8% 98%  
338 0.7% 97%  
339 0.8% 96%  
340 1.3% 95%  
341 2% 94%  
342 2% 93%  
343 2% 90%  
344 3% 88%  
345 4% 86%  
346 2% 82%  
347 3% 80%  
348 4% 77%  
349 5% 73%  
350 4% 68%  
351 4% 64%  
352 5% 60%  
353 4% 55% Median
354 4% 51%  
355 5% 47% Majority
356 5% 42%  
357 8% 38%  
358 4% 30%  
359 5% 25%  
360 3% 20%  
361 3% 17%  
362 3% 14%  
363 2% 12%  
364 2% 10%  
365 2% 8%  
366 1.1% 6%  
367 1.1% 5%  
368 1.0% 4%  
369 0.9% 3%  
370 0.6% 2%  
371 0.3% 1.2%  
372 0.3% 1.0%  
373 0.2% 0.7%  
374 0.2% 0.5%  
375 0.1% 0.3%  
376 0.1% 0.2%  
377 0.1% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.9%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.8%  
327 0.2% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.5%  
329 0.2% 99.4%  
330 0.4% 99.1%  
331 0.4% 98.7%  
332 0.5% 98%  
333 0.8% 98%  
334 2% 97%  
335 1.2% 95%  
336 0.9% 94%  
337 1.4% 93%  
338 3% 92%  
339 2% 89%  
340 3% 87%  
341 3% 84%  
342 3% 81%  
343 3% 78%  
344 4% 75%  
345 7% 71%  
346 5% 64%  
347 2% 59%  
348 5% 57%  
349 7% 52% Median
350 7% 45%  
351 4% 38%  
352 5% 35%  
353 5% 30%  
354 2% 25%  
355 4% 23% Majority
356 6% 19%  
357 2% 14%  
358 2% 11%  
359 2% 10%  
360 3% 8%  
361 1.3% 6%  
362 0.8% 4%  
363 0.7% 3%  
364 0.7% 3%  
365 0.7% 2%  
366 0.3% 1.5%  
367 0.4% 1.1%  
368 0.2% 0.7%  
369 0.1% 0.6%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.2% 99.7%  
284 0.2% 99.5%  
285 0.4% 99.3%  
286 0.4% 98.9%  
287 0.8% 98.6%  
288 0.7% 98%  
289 0.8% 97%  
290 1.2% 96%  
291 2% 95%  
292 2% 93%  
293 2% 91%  
294 2% 89%  
295 4% 87%  
296 3% 83%  
297 4% 81%  
298 5% 77%  
299 4% 72%  
300 6% 69%  
301 5% 63%  
302 5% 58%  
303 4% 53% Median
304 5% 48%  
305 4% 43%  
306 4% 39%  
307 6% 35%  
308 3% 28%  
309 4% 25%  
310 4% 21%  
311 3% 18%  
312 3% 15%  
313 2% 13% Last Result
314 2% 10%  
315 2% 9%  
316 1.2% 6%  
317 1.1% 5%  
318 1.1% 4%  
319 0.7% 3%  
320 0.6% 2%  
321 0.4% 2%  
322 0.4% 1.2%  
323 0.2% 0.8%  
324 0.2% 0.6%  
325 0.1% 0.4%  
326 0.1% 0.3%  
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.2% 99.6%  
281 0.3% 99.4%  
282 0.5% 99.1%  
283 0.5% 98.6%  
284 0.7% 98%  
285 0.8% 97%  
286 1.1% 97%  
287 2% 96%  
288 2% 94%  
289 2% 92%  
290 2% 90%  
291 2% 88%  
292 4% 86%  
293 3% 82%  
294 3% 79%  
295 3% 76%  
296 3% 73%  
297 5% 70%  
298 6% 65%  
299 4% 59%  
300 4% 55% Median
301 6% 51%  
302 4% 45%  
303 7% 41%  
304 3% 34%  
305 4% 31%  
306 4% 27%  
307 4% 23%  
308 4% 19%  
309 2% 14%  
310 3% 13%  
311 2% 9%  
312 2% 7%  
313 2% 6%  
314 0.9% 4%  
315 1.0% 3%  
316 0.5% 2%  
317 0.5% 2%  
318 0.4% 1.2%  
319 0.3% 0.9%  
320 0.1% 0.6%  
321 0.1% 0.5%  
322 0.1% 0.3%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.8%  
253 0.2% 99.7%  
254 0.2% 99.5%  
255 0.2% 99.3%  
256 0.3% 99.1%  
257 0.8% 98.8%  
258 1.0% 98%  
259 0.8% 97%  
260 1.3% 96%  
261 2% 95%  
262 2% 93%  
263 2% 91%  
264 2% 89%  
265 3% 87%  
266 5% 84%  
267 3% 80%  
268 5% 76%  
269 3% 72%  
270 4% 69%  
271 10% 65%  
272 5% 55%  
273 4% 50% Median
274 4% 46%  
275 4% 42%  
276 6% 38%  
277 5% 32%  
278 3% 27%  
279 3% 24%  
280 2% 21%  
281 5% 19%  
282 4% 14%  
283 2% 11%  
284 2% 9%  
285 1.3% 7%  
286 1.4% 6%  
287 1.2% 4%  
288 0.7% 3%  
289 0.5% 3%  
290 0.6% 2%  
291 0.5% 1.4%  
292 0.3% 1.0%  
293 0.1% 0.7%  
294 0.1% 0.6%  
295 0.2% 0.4%  
296 0.2% 0.3%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100% Last Result
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.6%  
251 0.2% 99.5%  
252 0.3% 99.3%  
253 0.5% 99.0%  
254 0.5% 98%  
255 0.7% 98%  
256 0.9% 97%  
257 1.0% 96%  
258 2% 95%  
259 2% 93%  
260 2% 91%  
261 3% 89%  
262 3% 86%  
263 3% 84%  
264 4% 80%  
265 4% 76%  
266 3% 72%  
267 6% 69%  
268 5% 63%  
269 5% 58%  
270 6% 53% Median
271 4% 47%  
272 6% 43%  
273 5% 37%  
274 5% 32%  
275 3% 27%  
276 4% 24%  
277 4% 20%  
278 2% 16%  
279 3% 14%  
280 2% 11%  
281 3% 9%  
282 1.4% 7%  
283 1.4% 5%  
284 0.8% 4%  
285 0.7% 3%  
286 0.8% 2%  
287 0.5% 2%  
288 0.3% 1.2%  
289 0.3% 1.0%  
290 0.2% 0.6%  
291 0.1% 0.4%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0.1% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.7%  
239 0.2% 99.6%  
240 0.3% 99.4%  
241 0.3% 99.1%  
242 0.6% 98.8%  
243 0.7% 98%  
244 0.6% 98%  
245 1.5% 97%  
246 1.2% 96%  
247 1.4% 94%  
248 2% 93%  
249 3% 91%  
250 2% 87%  
251 3% 85%  
252 3% 82%  
253 5% 79%  
254 5% 74%  
255 3% 69%  
256 9% 66%  
257 3% 57%  
258 7% 54% Median
259 4% 47%  
260 5% 43%  
261 5% 38%  
262 4% 34%  
263 4% 29%  
264 4% 25%  
265 4% 20%  
266 2% 17%  
267 3% 15%  
268 2% 12%  
269 2% 10%  
270 2% 8%  
271 1.1% 6%  
272 1.2% 5%  
273 0.8% 3%  
274 0.9% 3%  
275 0.2% 2%  
276 0.5% 1.5%  
277 0.3% 1.0%  
278 0.2% 0.7%  
279 0.1% 0.5%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0.1% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
202 0% 100%  
203 0.1% 99.9%  
204 0.1% 99.9%  
205 0.2% 99.8%  
206 0.3% 99.6%  
207 0.3% 99.3%  
208 0.3% 98.9%  
209 0.4% 98.7%  
210 0.2% 98%  
211 0.4% 98%  
212 0.9% 98%  
213 1.1% 97%  
214 1.4% 96%  
215 2% 94%  
216 4% 92%  
217 4% 88%  
218 4% 84%  
219 3% 80%  
220 3% 77%  
221 2% 74%  
222 3% 72% Last Result
223 3% 69%  
224 4% 66%  
225 4% 62%  
226 8% 58% Median
227 8% 50%  
228 6% 42%  
229 7% 36%  
230 8% 29%  
231 2% 21%  
232 3% 18%  
233 2% 16%  
234 1.5% 14%  
235 2% 12%  
236 2% 11%  
237 2% 8%  
238 2% 6%  
239 2% 5%  
240 1.1% 3%  
241 0.5% 2%  
242 0.4% 1.2%  
243 0.2% 0.8%  
244 0.1% 0.6%  
245 0.1% 0.5%  
246 0.1% 0.3%  
247 0.1% 0.2%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations