Opinion Poll by Kantar, 18–24 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 23.0% 21.8–24.2% 21.4–24.6% 21.1–24.9% 20.6–25.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 18.7% 17.5–19.8% 17.2–20.2% 17.0–20.5% 16.4–21.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.5% 16.3–19.8% 15.8–20.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.8–13.3% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–13.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.3% 3.8–5.0% 3.6–5.2% 3.5–5.3% 3.2–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 172 164–182 161–184 159–187 155–191
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 140 132–149 130–151 127–153 124–158
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 135 127–144 124–146 122–148 119–152
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 90 83–98 81–100 80–101 76–105
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 76–89 74–92 73–93 70–97
Die Linke 69 52 47–58 46–60 45–62 42–64
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 36 31–40 30–42 29–43 27–45

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
154 0.2% 99.7%  
155 0.3% 99.6%  
156 0.5% 99.3%  
157 0.7% 98.8%  
158 0.6% 98%  
159 0.8% 98%  
160 1.1% 97%  
161 1.2% 96%  
162 2% 94%  
163 2% 92%  
164 3% 90%  
165 4% 87%  
166 5% 83%  
167 3% 79%  
168 4% 76%  
169 6% 72%  
170 7% 66%  
171 5% 59%  
172 5% 54% Median
173 5% 49%  
174 6% 44%  
175 5% 38%  
176 4% 34%  
177 4% 30%  
178 6% 25%  
179 4% 20%  
180 3% 15%  
181 2% 12%  
182 2% 10%  
183 2% 8%  
184 1.4% 6%  
185 1.0% 5%  
186 1.0% 4%  
187 0.9% 3%  
188 0.7% 2%  
189 0.4% 1.3%  
190 0.3% 1.0%  
191 0.2% 0.7%  
192 0.2% 0.5%  
193 0.1% 0.3%  
194 0.1% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.8%  
123 0.2% 99.7%  
124 0.3% 99.5%  
125 0.5% 99.2%  
126 0.6% 98.7%  
127 0.6% 98%  
128 1.1% 97%  
129 1.3% 96%  
130 2% 95%  
131 2% 93%  
132 3% 91%  
133 4% 88%  
134 4% 84%  
135 5% 80%  
136 4% 74%  
137 6% 70%  
138 5% 65%  
139 5% 60%  
140 5% 55% Median
141 8% 50%  
142 6% 42%  
143 7% 36%  
144 4% 29%  
145 4% 24%  
146 4% 21%  
147 4% 17%  
148 3% 13%  
149 2% 10%  
150 2% 8%  
151 1.4% 6%  
152 1.4% 5%  
153 0.9% 3%  
154 0.7% 2%  
155 0.4% 2%  
156 0.4% 1.2%  
157 0.3% 0.9%  
158 0.2% 0.6%  
159 0.1% 0.4%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0.1% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.1% 99.7%  
119 0.2% 99.6%  
120 0.5% 99.4%  
121 0.8% 98.9%  
122 0.7% 98%  
123 1.1% 97%  
124 1.4% 96%  
125 1.5% 95%  
126 2% 93%  
127 5% 92%  
128 4% 87%  
129 4% 83%  
130 3% 79%  
131 5% 76%  
132 4% 71%  
133 5% 66%  
134 10% 61%  
135 6% 51% Median
136 5% 45%  
137 5% 41%  
138 5% 36%  
139 6% 31%  
140 4% 25%  
141 6% 21%  
142 3% 15%  
143 1.4% 12%  
144 2% 10%  
145 3% 8%  
146 1.5% 6%  
147 1.0% 4%  
148 1.0% 3%  
149 0.7% 2%  
150 0.3% 1.4%  
151 0.2% 1.1%  
152 0.4% 0.9%  
153 0.2% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 0.2% 99.7%  
77 0.3% 99.5%  
78 0.7% 99.2%  
79 0.9% 98.5%  
80 1.1% 98% Last Result
81 2% 97%  
82 2% 94%  
83 3% 92%  
84 4% 89%  
85 5% 85%  
86 7% 80%  
87 6% 73%  
88 7% 66%  
89 7% 59%  
90 6% 52% Median
91 8% 46%  
92 6% 38%  
93 6% 33%  
94 5% 26%  
95 4% 22%  
96 4% 18%  
97 3% 14%  
98 3% 10%  
99 2% 8%  
100 2% 5%  
101 1.2% 4%  
102 0.9% 2%  
103 0.6% 2%  
104 0.4% 0.9%  
105 0.2% 0.6%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.4% 99.6%  
71 0.5% 99.1%  
72 1.1% 98.6%  
73 2% 98%  
74 2% 96%  
75 2% 94%  
76 4% 92%  
77 3% 88%  
78 6% 85%  
79 5% 79%  
80 7% 73%  
81 7% 66%  
82 9% 59% Median
83 7% 50%  
84 7% 43%  
85 6% 36%  
86 6% 31%  
87 4% 24%  
88 5% 20%  
89 5% 15%  
90 2% 10%  
91 2% 7%  
92 2% 5%  
93 1.3% 4%  
94 0.7% 2% Last Result
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.4% 1.0%  
97 0.3% 0.6%  
98 0.1% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.7%  
43 0.6% 99.3%  
44 1.2% 98.7%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 4% 92%  
48 5% 88%  
49 7% 83%  
50 10% 76%  
51 10% 66%  
52 8% 57% Median
53 8% 49%  
54 8% 41%  
55 8% 33%  
56 6% 26%  
57 5% 19%  
58 5% 14%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6%  
61 2% 4%  
62 1.1% 3%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.3% 99.8%  
28 0.7% 99.5%  
29 2% 98.7%  
30 3% 97%  
31 5% 94%  
32 7% 89%  
33 9% 83%  
34 11% 74%  
35 11% 63%  
36 10% 52% Median
37 12% 42%  
38 9% 30%  
39 6% 21%  
40 6% 15%  
41 4% 9%  
42 2% 6%  
43 1.2% 3%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.9%  
46 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 483 100% 473–493 471–496 468–498 463–503
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 439 100% 428–449 425–452 423–454 418–459
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 401 100% 390–412 387–415 385–417 380–422
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 398 100% 387–408 384–411 382–414 376–419
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 360 74% 350–370 347–374 344–377 339–381
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 349 26% 339–359 335–362 332–365 328–370
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 348 24% 338–359 335–362 332–365 327–370
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 311 0% 300–321 297–325 295–327 290–332
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 307 0% 297–318 294–321 291–324 287–328
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 266 0% 256–276 253–279 250–282 246–287
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 263 0% 253–273 250–276 247–279 242–284
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 259 0% 249–269 245–272 243–274 238–280
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 225 0% 215–235 212–238 210–240 206–246

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
458 0% 100%  
459 0% 99.9%  
460 0.1% 99.9%  
461 0.1% 99.8%  
462 0.1% 99.7%  
463 0.2% 99.6%  
464 0.2% 99.4%  
465 0.2% 99.2%  
466 0.4% 99.0% Last Result
467 0.8% 98.6%  
468 0.7% 98%  
469 0.7% 97%  
470 1.3% 96%  
471 1.5% 95%  
472 2% 94%  
473 2% 91%  
474 2% 90%  
475 3% 87%  
476 3% 84%  
477 4% 81%  
478 3% 78%  
479 6% 75%  
480 5% 69%  
481 5% 64%  
482 5% 59%  
483 4% 54% Median
484 5% 50%  
485 4% 45%  
486 5% 41%  
487 4% 36%  
488 4% 32%  
489 5% 28%  
490 5% 23%  
491 3% 18%  
492 3% 15%  
493 3% 12%  
494 1.4% 9%  
495 2% 8%  
496 2% 6%  
497 1.1% 5%  
498 1.1% 4%  
499 0.7% 2%  
500 0.5% 2%  
501 0.4% 1.3%  
502 0.4% 1.0%  
503 0.2% 0.6%  
504 0.1% 0.4%  
505 0.1% 0.3%  
506 0.1% 0.2%  
507 0.1% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.8%  
417 0.1% 99.7%  
418 0.3% 99.5%  
419 0.3% 99.3%  
420 0.4% 99.0%  
421 0.4% 98.6%  
422 0.5% 98%  
423 0.8% 98%  
424 1.4% 97%  
425 1.2% 96%  
426 1.3% 94%  
427 1.4% 93%  
428 2% 92%  
429 2% 89%  
430 4% 87%  
431 4% 84%  
432 2% 79%  
433 3% 77%  
434 5% 75%  
435 5% 69%  
436 5% 65%  
437 6% 60%  
438 4% 54% Median
439 4% 50%  
440 5% 46%  
441 5% 41%  
442 6% 36%  
443 4% 31%  
444 4% 26%  
445 3% 23%  
446 3% 20%  
447 3% 17%  
448 3% 14%  
449 2% 10%  
450 2% 8%  
451 1.0% 7%  
452 2% 6%  
453 0.9% 4%  
454 0.8% 3%  
455 0.7% 2%  
456 0.4% 2%  
457 0.3% 1.3%  
458 0.4% 1.0%  
459 0.2% 0.6%  
460 0.1% 0.4%  
461 0.1% 0.3%  
462 0.1% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.8%  
378 0.1% 99.8%  
379 0.1% 99.7%  
380 0.1% 99.6%  
381 0.3% 99.4%  
382 0.3% 99.2%  
383 0.6% 98.8%  
384 0.6% 98%  
385 0.5% 98%  
386 1.1% 97%  
387 1.1% 96%  
388 2% 95%  
389 2% 93%  
390 2% 91%  
391 1.4% 90%  
392 3% 88%  
393 3% 86% Last Result
394 4% 82%  
395 4% 79%  
396 3% 75%  
397 4% 72%  
398 3% 68%  
399 7% 65%  
400 5% 58%  
401 6% 53% Median
402 4% 46%  
403 4% 43%  
404 5% 39%  
405 5% 34%  
406 5% 29%  
407 3% 25%  
408 3% 21%  
409 3% 18%  
410 3% 16%  
411 2% 13%  
412 3% 11%  
413 1.5% 8%  
414 1.3% 7%  
415 1.2% 5%  
416 1.0% 4%  
417 1.0% 3%  
418 0.7% 2%  
419 0.4% 2%  
420 0.3% 1.2%  
421 0.2% 0.9%  
422 0.2% 0.7%  
423 0.1% 0.4%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0.1% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.7%  
376 0.2% 99.6%  
377 0.2% 99.5%  
378 0.3% 99.3%  
379 0.4% 99.0%  
380 0.5% 98.6%  
381 0.5% 98%  
382 0.9% 98%  
383 0.9% 97%  
384 2% 96%  
385 1.0% 94%  
386 2% 93%  
387 2% 92%  
388 3% 90%  
389 3% 87%  
390 2% 84%  
391 4% 81%  
392 4% 78%  
393 3% 73%  
394 6% 70%  
395 4% 64%  
396 5% 60%  
397 5% 55% Median
398 5% 51%  
399 5% 46%  
400 6% 41%  
401 4% 36%  
402 3% 32%  
403 5% 28%  
404 3% 24%  
405 3% 20%  
406 3% 17%  
407 2% 14%  
408 3% 12%  
409 2% 9%  
410 1.4% 7%  
411 1.3% 6%  
412 1.1% 5%  
413 0.7% 3%  
414 0.7% 3%  
415 0.5% 2%  
416 0.4% 2%  
417 0.3% 1.1%  
418 0.2% 0.8%  
419 0.2% 0.6%  
420 0.1% 0.4%  
421 0.1% 0.3%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.8%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.2% 99.7%  
339 0.1% 99.6%  
340 0.4% 99.4%  
341 0.2% 99.1%  
342 0.6% 98.8%  
343 0.4% 98%  
344 0.8% 98%  
345 0.7% 97%  
346 0.8% 96%  
347 2% 96%  
348 1.0% 93%  
349 2% 92%  
350 2% 90%  
351 3% 88%  
352 3% 85%  
353 3% 82%  
354 5% 79%  
355 2% 74% Majority
356 6% 72%  
357 4% 66%  
358 6% 62%  
359 3% 56% Median
360 4% 53%  
361 5% 50%  
362 6% 45%  
363 6% 39%  
364 2% 33%  
365 4% 30%  
366 3% 26%  
367 4% 23%  
368 3% 19%  
369 3% 16%  
370 3% 13%  
371 1.4% 10%  
372 2% 9%  
373 1.2% 7%  
374 1.4% 6%  
375 0.7% 4%  
376 0.7% 3%  
377 0.7% 3%  
378 0.7% 2%  
379 0.3% 1.3%  
380 0.3% 0.9%  
381 0.2% 0.7%  
382 0.1% 0.5%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.7%  
327 0.1% 99.6%  
328 0.2% 99.5%  
329 0.3% 99.3%  
330 0.3% 99.1%  
331 0.7% 98.7%  
332 0.7% 98%  
333 0.7% 97%  
334 0.7% 97%  
335 1.4% 96%  
336 1.2% 94%  
337 2% 93%  
338 1.4% 91%  
339 3% 90%  
340 3% 87%  
341 3% 84%  
342 4% 81%  
343 3% 77%  
344 4% 74%  
345 2% 70%  
346 6% 67%  
347 6% 61%  
348 5% 55% Median
349 4% 50%  
350 3% 47%  
351 6% 44%  
352 4% 38%  
353 6% 34%  
354 2% 28%  
355 5% 26% Majority
356 3% 21%  
357 3% 18%  
358 3% 15%  
359 2% 12%  
360 2% 10%  
361 1.0% 8%  
362 2% 7%  
363 0.8% 4%  
364 0.7% 4%  
365 0.8% 3%  
366 0.4% 2%  
367 0.6% 2%  
368 0.2% 1.2%  
369 0.4% 0.9%  
370 0.1% 0.6%  
371 0.2% 0.4%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.7%  
327 0.2% 99.6%  
328 0.2% 99.4%  
329 0.3% 99.2%  
330 0.3% 98.8%  
331 0.5% 98.5%  
332 0.7% 98%  
333 0.7% 97%  
334 2% 97%  
335 0.9% 95%  
336 2% 94%  
337 1.3% 92%  
338 3% 91%  
339 3% 88%  
340 2% 85%  
341 3% 83%  
342 3% 80%  
343 4% 77%  
344 5% 73%  
345 6% 69%  
346 4% 63%  
347 6% 58%  
348 4% 52% Median
349 5% 48%  
350 4% 44%  
351 5% 40%  
352 4% 35%  
353 3% 32%  
354 5% 29%  
355 2% 24% Majority
356 4% 21%  
357 3% 17%  
358 3% 14%  
359 3% 11%  
360 1.5% 9%  
361 1.1% 7%  
362 1.3% 6%  
363 0.9% 5%  
364 0.9% 4%  
365 0.8% 3%  
366 0.7% 2%  
367 0.3% 1.3%  
368 0.4% 1.1%  
369 0.1% 0.7%  
370 0.2% 0.6%  
371 0.1% 0.4%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0.1% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.2% 99.5%  
291 0.3% 99.4%  
292 0.3% 99.1%  
293 0.4% 98.7%  
294 0.7% 98%  
295 0.6% 98%  
296 0.9% 97%  
297 1.5% 96%  
298 1.2% 95%  
299 2% 93%  
300 2% 92%  
301 2% 90%  
302 2% 87%  
303 3% 85%  
304 3% 82%  
305 4% 78%  
306 4% 74%  
307 5% 71%  
308 3% 65%  
309 5% 62%  
310 4% 58%  
311 5% 53% Median
312 6% 48%  
313 5% 42% Last Result
314 4% 37%  
315 4% 33%  
316 4% 30%  
317 4% 26%  
318 3% 22%  
319 3% 19%  
320 4% 16%  
321 2% 12%  
322 2% 10%  
323 2% 8%  
324 1.1% 6%  
325 1.0% 5%  
326 1.3% 4%  
327 0.6% 3%  
328 0.5% 2%  
329 0.4% 2%  
330 0.4% 1.3%  
331 0.2% 0.9%  
332 0.2% 0.7%  
333 0.2% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0.1% 99.6%  
287 0.2% 99.5%  
288 0.4% 99.3%  
289 0.2% 98.9%  
290 0.6% 98.7%  
291 0.7% 98%  
292 0.6% 97%  
293 1.1% 97%  
294 2% 96%  
295 0.6% 94%  
296 1.5% 93%  
297 3% 92%  
298 2% 88%  
299 3% 87%  
300 5% 84%  
301 2% 79%  
302 2% 77%  
303 8% 75%  
304 3% 67%  
305 3% 64%  
306 6% 61%  
307 5% 54% Median
308 3% 49%  
309 7% 47%  
310 4% 40%  
311 2% 35%  
312 6% 34%  
313 5% 27%  
314 1.4% 22%  
315 4% 21%  
316 4% 17%  
317 0.8% 13%  
318 3% 12%  
319 2% 9%  
320 0.6% 7%  
321 1.4% 6%  
322 1.5% 5%  
323 0.5% 3%  
324 0.7% 3%  
325 0.6% 2%  
326 0.2% 1.4%  
327 0.3% 1.2%  
328 0.4% 0.9%  
329 0.1% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0.1% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.2% 99.7%  
246 0.2% 99.5%  
247 0.3% 99.3%  
248 0.5% 99.0%  
249 0.4% 98%  
250 0.8% 98%  
251 0.9% 97%  
252 0.9% 96%  
253 1.2% 95%  
254 2% 94%  
255 2% 92%  
256 2% 90%  
257 3% 88%  
258 2% 85%  
259 4% 83%  
260 5% 79%  
261 3% 74%  
262 4% 72%  
263 5% 68%  
264 5% 63%  
265 7% 58%  
266 4% 51% Median
267 5% 47%  
268 4% 42%  
269 5% 39%  
270 4% 33%  
271 4% 29%  
272 4% 25%  
273 4% 21%  
274 3% 18%  
275 3% 14%  
276 2% 12%  
277 2% 10%  
278 1.5% 7%  
279 1.3% 6%  
280 0.9% 5%  
281 0.9% 4%  
282 0.7% 3%  
283 0.5% 2%  
284 0.5% 2%  
285 0.3% 1.1%  
286 0.2% 0.8%  
287 0.2% 0.6%  
288 0.1% 0.4%  
289 0.1% 0.3%  
290 0.1% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100% Last Result
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.8%  
241 0.2% 99.7%  
242 0.1% 99.6%  
243 0.3% 99.4%  
244 0.2% 99.1%  
245 0.3% 98.9%  
246 0.8% 98.6%  
247 0.5% 98%  
248 0.9% 97%  
249 1.3% 96%  
250 1.3% 95%  
251 2% 94%  
252 1.2% 91%  
253 3% 90%  
254 3% 87%  
255 3% 84%  
256 4% 81%  
257 3% 77%  
258 5% 74%  
259 4% 69%  
260 4% 65%  
261 7% 61%  
262 4% 54% Median
263 5% 50%  
264 4% 45%  
265 5% 40%  
266 5% 36%  
267 3% 31%  
268 5% 27%  
269 3% 22%  
270 2% 19%  
271 3% 16%  
272 3% 14%  
273 2% 11%  
274 2% 9%  
275 1.2% 7%  
276 1.1% 6%  
277 1.1% 4%  
278 0.8% 3%  
279 0.7% 3%  
280 0.4% 2%  
281 0.4% 1.3%  
282 0.3% 1.0%  
283 0.2% 0.7%  
284 0.2% 0.5%  
285 0.1% 0.4%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0.1% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.7%  
238 0.1% 99.6%  
239 0.2% 99.5%  
240 0.4% 99.3%  
241 0.3% 98.9%  
242 0.7% 98.6%  
243 0.8% 98%  
244 0.6% 97%  
245 2% 96%  
246 1.3% 95%  
247 2% 94%  
248 1.4% 92%  
249 3% 90%  
250 3% 88%  
251 3% 85%  
252 3% 81%  
253 3% 78%  
254 5% 75%  
255 5% 70%  
256 4% 65%  
257 5% 61%  
258 5% 56% Median
259 4% 51%  
260 6% 47%  
261 5% 41%  
262 4% 36%  
263 4% 32%  
264 4% 28%  
265 5% 25%  
266 4% 19%  
267 2% 16%  
268 3% 14%  
269 2% 11%  
270 2% 9%  
271 1.3% 7%  
272 0.9% 6%  
273 2% 5%  
274 0.7% 3%  
275 0.5% 2%  
276 0.5% 2%  
277 0.3% 1.3%  
278 0.3% 1.0%  
279 0.2% 0.7%  
280 0.2% 0.5%  
281 0.1% 0.3%  
282 0.1% 0.2%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100%  
201 0% 99.9%  
202 0.1% 99.9%  
203 0.1% 99.8%  
204 0.1% 99.7%  
205 0.1% 99.6%  
206 0.2% 99.5%  
207 0.3% 99.4%  
208 0.3% 99.0%  
209 0.9% 98.7%  
210 1.0% 98%  
211 1.1% 97%  
212 0.9% 96%  
213 1.2% 95%  
214 1.3% 93%  
215 2% 92%  
216 2% 90%  
217 4% 88%  
218 4% 84%  
219 4% 80%  
220 5% 76%  
221 4% 72%  
222 5% 67% Last Result
223 5% 63%  
224 5% 57% Median
225 5% 53%  
226 4% 48%  
227 5% 44%  
228 8% 39%  
229 4% 31%  
230 4% 27%  
231 4% 23%  
232 3% 19%  
233 3% 17%  
234 2% 14%  
235 2% 12%  
236 2% 9%  
237 2% 7%  
238 1.3% 6%  
239 1.1% 5%  
240 1.0% 3%  
241 0.8% 2%  
242 0.5% 2%  
243 0.2% 1.2%  
244 0.2% 0.9%  
245 0.2% 0.7%  
246 0.2% 0.5%  
247 0.1% 0.4%  
248 0.1% 0.2%  
249 0.1% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations