Opinion Poll by YouGov, 20–24 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 23.7% 22.5–25.1% 22.1–25.5% 21.8–25.8% 21.2–26.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 17.7% 16.6–18.9% 16.2–19.3% 15.9–19.6% 15.4–20.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 15.9% 14.8–17.1% 14.5–17.4% 14.2–17.7% 13.7–18.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.8% 11.8–13.9% 11.6–14.3% 11.3–14.5% 10.9–15.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.9% 10.0–11.9% 9.7–12.2% 9.5–12.5% 9.1–13.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.9% 7.1–8.8% 6.9–9.1% 6.7–9.3% 6.4–9.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.1% 3.5–4.8% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 180 170–190 167–192 165–195 160–200
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 134 125–143 123–146 121–148 117–153
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 120 112–129 110–132 107–133 103–139
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 97 90–105 88–108 86–110 82–114
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 76–91 75–92 73–94 68–98
Die Linke 69 60 54–67 53–69 51–71 48–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 35 30–39 29–40 28–43 26–45

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100% Last Result
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.7%  
160 0.2% 99.6%  
161 0.2% 99.5%  
162 0.3% 99.2%  
163 0.5% 98.9%  
164 0.5% 98%  
165 0.9% 98%  
166 0.9% 97%  
167 2% 96%  
168 2% 94%  
169 2% 93%  
170 3% 91%  
171 3% 88%  
172 4% 85%  
173 3% 81%  
174 5% 78%  
175 4% 73%  
176 4% 69%  
177 5% 65%  
178 5% 61%  
179 4% 56%  
180 5% 52% Median
181 4% 47%  
182 4% 43%  
183 4% 39%  
184 5% 35%  
185 4% 30%  
186 4% 26%  
187 4% 22%  
188 4% 18%  
189 3% 14%  
190 3% 12%  
191 2% 8%  
192 2% 6%  
193 1.2% 5%  
194 1.0% 4%  
195 0.6% 3%  
196 0.5% 2%  
197 0.4% 1.4%  
198 0.2% 1.1%  
199 0.2% 0.8%  
200 0.1% 0.6%  
201 0.1% 0.5%  
202 0.1% 0.3%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.7%  
117 0.3% 99.5%  
118 0.3% 99.2%  
119 0.6% 98.9%  
120 0.6% 98%  
121 1.1% 98%  
122 1.2% 97%  
123 1.4% 95%  
124 2% 94%  
125 2% 92%  
126 3% 89%  
127 3% 86%  
128 5% 83%  
129 4% 78%  
130 5% 74%  
131 5% 69%  
132 5% 64%  
133 6% 58%  
134 5% 52% Median
135 6% 47%  
136 5% 41%  
137 4% 36%  
138 6% 32%  
139 4% 26%  
140 5% 23%  
141 3% 17%  
142 3% 15%  
143 2% 12%  
144 2% 9%  
145 2% 7%  
146 1.1% 5%  
147 1.4% 4%  
148 0.5% 3%  
149 0.8% 2%  
150 0.4% 2%  
151 0.3% 1.1%  
152 0.3% 0.8%  
153 0.2% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0.1% 0.2%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0.1%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.8%  
103 0.3% 99.8%  
104 0.2% 99.4%  
105 0.2% 99.2%  
106 0.8% 99.0%  
107 2% 98%  
108 0.5% 97%  
109 1.1% 96%  
110 3% 95%  
111 1.0% 92%  
112 3% 91%  
113 6% 89%  
114 4% 82%  
115 3% 78%  
116 6% 76%  
117 6% 70%  
118 3% 64%  
119 6% 61%  
120 8% 54% Median
121 3% 47%  
122 7% 44%  
123 7% 37%  
124 4% 30%  
125 4% 26%  
126 5% 22%  
127 2% 17%  
128 2% 15%  
129 4% 13%  
130 3% 9%  
131 0.7% 6%  
132 2% 5%  
133 1.1% 4%  
134 0.3% 2%  
135 0.6% 2%  
136 0.8% 2%  
137 0.1% 0.7%  
138 0.1% 0.6%  
139 0.3% 0.5%  
140 0.1% 0.2%  
141 0% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 0.3% 99.7%  
83 0.4% 99.4%  
84 0.4% 99.1%  
85 0.7% 98.6%  
86 1.1% 98%  
87 2% 97%  
88 2% 95%  
89 3% 93%  
90 3% 90%  
91 3% 88%  
92 6% 84%  
93 5% 79%  
94 7% 73%  
95 5% 67%  
96 4% 61%  
97 8% 57% Median
98 6% 49%  
99 7% 43%  
100 6% 36%  
101 5% 30%  
102 5% 26%  
103 4% 21%  
104 5% 18%  
105 4% 13%  
106 2% 10%  
107 1.5% 7%  
108 1.4% 6%  
109 1.3% 4%  
110 0.8% 3%  
111 1.0% 2%  
112 0.4% 1.2%  
113 0.2% 0.8%  
114 0.2% 0.6%  
115 0.1% 0.4%  
116 0.1% 0.3%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.6%  
69 0.3% 99.4%  
70 0.4% 99.1%  
71 0.6% 98.7%  
72 0.5% 98%  
73 0.9% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 4% 95%  
76 4% 91%  
77 5% 87%  
78 8% 82%  
79 11% 74%  
80 7% 63%  
81 6% 57%  
82 7% 50% Median
83 5% 43%  
84 3% 38%  
85 3% 36%  
86 4% 33%  
87 5% 29%  
88 4% 24%  
89 4% 20%  
90 5% 15%  
91 4% 10%  
92 2% 6%  
93 2% 4%  
94 1.3% 3% Last Result
95 0.4% 1.4%  
96 0.2% 1.0%  
97 0.2% 0.7%  
98 0.1% 0.6%  
99 0.1% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.7%  
49 0.7% 99.4%  
50 1.0% 98.8%  
51 1.1% 98%  
52 2% 97%  
53 3% 95%  
54 4% 92%  
55 4% 88%  
56 6% 84%  
57 8% 78%  
58 6% 71%  
59 9% 64%  
60 9% 55% Median
61 7% 47%  
62 6% 40%  
63 8% 34%  
64 6% 25%  
65 4% 20%  
66 4% 15%  
67 3% 12%  
68 4% 9%  
69 2% 5% Last Result
70 1.0% 4%  
71 0.9% 3%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 0.4% 1.1%  
74 0.3% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.3% 99.8%  
26 0.3% 99.5%  
27 0.6% 99.2%  
28 2% 98.6%  
29 5% 96%  
30 8% 91%  
31 11% 83%  
32 9% 72%  
33 6% 63%  
34 5% 57%  
35 10% 52% Median
36 12% 42%  
37 12% 30%  
38 8% 18%  
39 4% 10%  
40 2% 6%  
41 0.9% 4%  
42 0.9% 3%  
43 1.2% 3%  
44 0.8% 1.4%  
45 0.4% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 469 100% 458–480 454–482 452–485 446–490
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 446 100% 434–457 431–460 428–463 423–468
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 397 100% 386–408 383–413 380–415 375–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 386 100% 375–398 371–401 369–404 363–409
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 361 75% 349–372 346–375 343–378 337–383
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 348 25% 337–360 334–363 331–366 326–372
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 348 27% 337–360 334–363 331–365 326–371
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 300 0% 288–312 286–314 283–317 277–323
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 289 0% 278–300 275–303 271–306 267–311
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 278 0% 266–288 263–292 260–294 255–300
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 266 0% 255–277 252–281 249–283 243–288
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 250 0% 240–263 238–265 236–268 229–273
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 240 0% 229–251 226–254 224–256 219–262

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 99.9%  
442 0% 99.9%  
443 0.1% 99.9%  
444 0.1% 99.8%  
445 0.1% 99.8%  
446 0.1% 99.6%  
447 0.2% 99.5%  
448 0.3% 99.3%  
449 0.3% 98.9%  
450 0.3% 98.7%  
451 0.7% 98%  
452 0.7% 98%  
453 0.7% 97%  
454 2% 96%  
455 1.2% 95%  
456 1.2% 93%  
457 2% 92%  
458 2% 90%  
459 3% 88%  
460 3% 85%  
461 2% 82%  
462 3% 80%  
463 4% 77%  
464 4% 73%  
465 3% 69%  
466 7% 66% Last Result
467 4% 59%  
468 5% 56%  
469 5% 51% Median
470 4% 45%  
471 4% 42%  
472 5% 38%  
473 4% 33%  
474 5% 29%  
475 3% 24%  
476 3% 21%  
477 3% 18%  
478 3% 15%  
479 2% 12%  
480 2% 11%  
481 2% 8%  
482 1.2% 6%  
483 1.2% 5%  
484 0.8% 4%  
485 0.5% 3%  
486 0.6% 2%  
487 0.5% 2%  
488 0.2% 1.2%  
489 0.4% 1.0%  
490 0.2% 0.6%  
491 0.1% 0.4%  
492 0.1% 0.3%  
493 0.1% 0.2%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0.1%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0.1% 99.8%  
422 0.2% 99.7%  
423 0.1% 99.6%  
424 0.3% 99.5%  
425 0.4% 99.2%  
426 0.4% 98.8%  
427 0.6% 98%  
428 0.7% 98%  
429 1.0% 97%  
430 0.8% 96%  
431 0.7% 95%  
432 1.2% 95%  
433 2% 93%  
434 2% 92%  
435 2% 90%  
436 2% 88%  
437 3% 85%  
438 3% 82%  
439 4% 79%  
440 3% 75%  
441 2% 72%  
442 5% 70%  
443 4% 65%  
444 3% 60%  
445 4% 57%  
446 4% 54% Median
447 6% 49%  
448 5% 43%  
449 4% 38%  
450 3% 34%  
451 4% 31%  
452 4% 27%  
453 3% 22%  
454 2% 20%  
455 3% 17%  
456 3% 14%  
457 2% 12%  
458 2% 9%  
459 1.4% 7%  
460 2% 6%  
461 1.0% 4%  
462 0.6% 3%  
463 0.9% 3%  
464 0.6% 2%  
465 0.3% 1.2%  
466 0.2% 0.9%  
467 0.2% 0.7%  
468 0.1% 0.5%  
469 0.1% 0.4%  
470 0.1% 0.2%  
471 0% 0.2%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.8%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.7%  
375 0.2% 99.6%  
376 0.3% 99.4%  
377 0.4% 99.1%  
378 0.7% 98.8%  
379 0.4% 98%  
380 0.9% 98%  
381 0.6% 97%  
382 0.6% 96%  
383 0.6% 96%  
384 1.3% 95%  
385 2% 94%  
386 3% 92%  
387 3% 89%  
388 3% 86%  
389 3% 83%  
390 2% 80%  
391 2% 78%  
392 3% 76%  
393 3% 73%  
394 3% 70%  
395 5% 67%  
396 7% 62%  
397 7% 56% Median
398 5% 49%  
399 4% 44%  
400 3% 41%  
401 2% 38%  
402 3% 35%  
403 4% 32%  
404 3% 28%  
405 5% 24%  
406 4% 20%  
407 4% 16%  
408 2% 12%  
409 2% 10%  
410 1.0% 8%  
411 0.7% 7%  
412 1.3% 6%  
413 1.4% 5%  
414 1.1% 4%  
415 0.8% 3%  
416 0.6% 2%  
417 0.3% 1.2%  
418 0.3% 0.9%  
419 0.1% 0.6%  
420 0.1% 0.5%  
421 0.1% 0.4%  
422 0.1% 0.4%  
423 0.1% 0.3%  
424 0.1% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.7%  
363 0.2% 99.6%  
364 0.2% 99.5%  
365 0.3% 99.3%  
366 0.3% 99.0%  
367 0.4% 98.7%  
368 0.6% 98%  
369 0.6% 98%  
370 0.9% 97%  
371 1.2% 96%  
372 0.8% 95%  
373 1.4% 94%  
374 2% 93%  
375 3% 91%  
376 2% 88%  
377 3% 86%  
378 3% 83%  
379 3% 80%  
380 3% 77%  
381 5% 74%  
382 4% 69%  
383 3% 65%  
384 6% 62%  
385 4% 56%  
386 5% 52% Median
387 3% 48%  
388 4% 44%  
389 4% 40%  
390 4% 36%  
391 4% 32%  
392 4% 28%  
393 3% 24% Last Result
394 3% 21%  
395 3% 18%  
396 2% 15%  
397 2% 13%  
398 2% 11%  
399 2% 9%  
400 1.4% 7%  
401 1.3% 6%  
402 0.9% 4%  
403 0.7% 3%  
404 0.7% 3%  
405 0.5% 2%  
406 0.4% 1.4%  
407 0.3% 1.0%  
408 0.2% 0.7%  
409 0.1% 0.5%  
410 0.1% 0.4%  
411 0.1% 0.3%  
412 0.1% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.7%  
337 0.2% 99.6%  
338 0.2% 99.4%  
339 0.3% 99.3%  
340 0.4% 99.0%  
341 0.4% 98.6%  
342 0.6% 98%  
343 0.7% 98%  
344 0.7% 97%  
345 1.0% 96%  
346 1.4% 95%  
347 2% 94%  
348 2% 92%  
349 2% 91%  
350 2% 89%  
351 2% 86%  
352 3% 84%  
353 3% 81%  
354 3% 78%  
355 4% 75% Majority
356 4% 71%  
357 4% 67%  
358 3% 63%  
359 5% 60%  
360 4% 55% Median
361 5% 51%  
362 4% 47%  
363 5% 43%  
364 4% 38%  
365 4% 34%  
366 4% 30%  
367 4% 26%  
368 4% 22%  
369 2% 18%  
370 3% 16%  
371 2% 13%  
372 2% 11%  
373 2% 9%  
374 1.4% 7%  
375 1.2% 6%  
376 1.2% 4%  
377 0.6% 3%  
378 0.7% 3%  
379 0.4% 2%  
380 0.4% 2%  
381 0.3% 1.2%  
382 0.2% 0.8%  
383 0.1% 0.6%  
384 0.2% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.2% 99.7%  
326 0.1% 99.5%  
327 0.2% 99.4%  
328 0.3% 99.2%  
329 0.4% 98.8%  
330 0.4% 98%  
331 0.7% 98%  
332 0.6% 97%  
333 1.2% 97%  
334 1.2% 96%  
335 1.4% 94%  
336 2% 93%  
337 2% 91%  
338 2% 89%  
339 3% 87%  
340 2% 84%  
341 4% 82%  
342 4% 78%  
343 4% 74%  
344 4% 70%  
345 4% 66%  
346 5% 62%  
347 4% 57%  
348 5% 53% Median
349 4% 49%  
350 5% 45%  
351 3% 40%  
352 4% 37%  
353 4% 33%  
354 4% 29%  
355 3% 25% Majority
356 3% 22%  
357 3% 19%  
358 2% 16%  
359 2% 14%  
360 2% 11%  
361 2% 9%  
362 2% 8%  
363 1.4% 6%  
364 1.0% 5%  
365 0.7% 4%  
366 0.7% 3%  
367 0.6% 2%  
368 0.4% 2%  
369 0.4% 1.4%  
370 0.3% 1.0%  
371 0.2% 0.7%  
372 0.2% 0.6%  
373 0.1% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0.1% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.7%  
325 0.1% 99.6%  
326 0.2% 99.5%  
327 0.3% 99.4%  
328 0.3% 99.1%  
329 0.4% 98.8%  
330 0.7% 98%  
331 0.6% 98%  
332 0.9% 97%  
333 1.2% 96%  
334 1.2% 95%  
335 1.3% 94%  
336 2% 92%  
337 3% 90%  
338 4% 87%  
339 2% 84%  
340 3% 81%  
341 3% 78%  
342 3% 75%  
343 4% 72%  
344 4% 69%  
345 4% 64%  
346 3% 60%  
347 4% 57%  
348 4% 53%  
349 3% 49% Median
350 3% 46%  
351 3% 43%  
352 4% 40%  
353 4% 36%  
354 5% 32%  
355 4% 27% Majority
356 4% 23%  
357 2% 19%  
358 3% 17%  
359 2% 14%  
360 3% 12%  
361 2% 9%  
362 2% 7%  
363 2% 6%  
364 1.1% 4%  
365 0.9% 3%  
366 0.4% 2%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.3% 1.3%  
369 0.3% 1.0%  
370 0.2% 0.8%  
371 0.2% 0.6%  
372 0.1% 0.4%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0.1% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.2% 99.7%  
278 0.2% 99.5%  
279 0.3% 99.3%  
280 0.4% 99.0%  
281 0.5% 98.6%  
282 0.5% 98%  
283 0.5% 98%  
284 0.7% 97%  
285 0.9% 96%  
286 2% 95%  
287 2% 94%  
288 2% 92%  
289 2% 90%  
290 2% 88%  
291 2% 86%  
292 3% 84%  
293 4% 82%  
294 5% 78%  
295 3% 73%  
296 4% 70%  
297 3% 66%  
298 4% 63%  
299 5% 59%  
300 6% 54% Median
301 4% 48%  
302 4% 44%  
303 3% 39%  
304 4% 36%  
305 4% 32%  
306 4% 28%  
307 3% 23%  
308 3% 20%  
309 3% 17%  
310 2% 14%  
311 2% 12%  
312 2% 10%  
313 2% 8%  
314 2% 6%  
315 1.1% 5%  
316 0.7% 4%  
317 0.6% 3%  
318 0.4% 2%  
319 0.5% 2%  
320 0.4% 2%  
321 0.4% 1.1%  
322 0.1% 0.7%  
323 0.2% 0.6%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0.1% 0.2%  
327 0.1% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.8%  
266 0.2% 99.7%  
267 0.3% 99.5%  
268 0.3% 99.2%  
269 0.5% 98.9%  
270 0.4% 98%  
271 0.7% 98%  
272 0.5% 97%  
273 0.4% 97%  
274 0.9% 96%  
275 0.9% 95%  
276 2% 95%  
277 2% 92%  
278 3% 90%  
279 3% 87%  
280 3% 84%  
281 3% 81%  
282 3% 78%  
283 2% 75%  
284 3% 72%  
285 3% 70%  
286 5% 67%  
287 6% 62%  
288 5% 56%  
289 8% 52% Median
290 4% 44%  
291 4% 40%  
292 5% 36%  
293 2% 31%  
294 3% 29%  
295 2% 25%  
296 3% 23%  
297 4% 20%  
298 3% 17%  
299 3% 13%  
300 2% 10%  
301 1.3% 8%  
302 1.2% 7%  
303 0.9% 5%  
304 0.7% 4%  
305 0.8% 4%  
306 0.5% 3%  
307 0.6% 2%  
308 0.5% 2%  
309 0.4% 1.3%  
310 0.3% 0.9%  
311 0.1% 0.6%  
312 0.1% 0.4%  
313 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
314 0% 0.2%  
315 0.1% 0.2%  
316 0% 0.1%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100% Last Result
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.2% 99.6%  
256 0.3% 99.4%  
257 0.3% 99.1%  
258 0.3% 98.9%  
259 0.6% 98.5%  
260 0.8% 98%  
261 0.8% 97%  
262 1.0% 96%  
263 1.2% 95%  
264 2% 94%  
265 2% 92%  
266 1.5% 91%  
267 2% 89%  
268 3% 87%  
269 2% 84%  
270 3% 81%  
271 4% 78%  
272 4% 75%  
273 4% 71%  
274 4% 67%  
275 4% 63%  
276 5% 60%  
277 4% 54% Median
278 4% 51%  
279 5% 47%  
280 5% 41%  
281 3% 36%  
282 4% 33%  
283 4% 29%  
284 5% 26%  
285 3% 21%  
286 3% 18%  
287 3% 15%  
288 2% 12%  
289 2% 10%  
290 2% 8%  
291 1.5% 7%  
292 1.3% 5%  
293 0.9% 4%  
294 0.6% 3%  
295 0.7% 2%  
296 0.4% 2%  
297 0.4% 1.4%  
298 0.2% 1.0%  
299 0.2% 0.7%  
300 0.2% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0.1% 0.3%  
303 0.1% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 99.9%  
240 0.1% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.2% 99.7%  
244 0.2% 99.5%  
245 0.2% 99.3%  
246 0.4% 99.1%  
247 0.2% 98.8%  
248 0.6% 98.5%  
249 0.5% 98%  
250 1.0% 97%  
251 0.9% 96%  
252 1.4% 95%  
253 2% 94%  
254 2% 92%  
255 2% 91%  
256 2% 89%  
257 2% 87%  
258 3% 84%  
259 3% 81%  
260 4% 79%  
261 5% 75%  
262 4% 70%  
263 5% 65%  
264 5% 61%  
265 5% 55%  
266 5% 50% Median
267 4% 46%  
268 3% 41%  
269 4% 38%  
270 4% 34%  
271 3% 30%  
272 4% 27%  
273 4% 22%  
274 2% 18%  
275 3% 16%  
276 2% 13%  
277 2% 11%  
278 2% 9%  
279 1.2% 7%  
280 1.0% 6%  
281 1.1% 5%  
282 0.7% 4%  
283 1.0% 3%  
284 0.6% 2%  
285 0.5% 2%  
286 0.4% 1.3%  
287 0.3% 0.9%  
288 0.1% 0.6%  
289 0.1% 0.5%  
290 0.1% 0.3%  
291 0.1% 0.2%  
292 0.1% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.7%  
229 0.1% 99.6%  
230 0.2% 99.5%  
231 0.2% 99.3%  
232 0.2% 99.1%  
233 0.4% 98.9%  
234 0.5% 98%  
235 0.5% 98%  
236 0.8% 98%  
237 1.5% 97%  
238 1.3% 95%  
239 2% 94%  
240 2% 92%  
241 2% 90%  
242 4% 87%  
243 4% 84%  
244 4% 80%  
245 4% 76%  
246 3% 72%  
247 6% 68%  
248 4% 63%  
249 5% 59%  
250 4% 54%  
251 5% 50% Median
252 3% 45%  
253 5% 42%  
254 4% 37%  
255 3% 33%  
256 3% 30%  
257 3% 27%  
258 3% 24%  
259 3% 21%  
260 2% 18%  
261 3% 15%  
262 2% 13%  
263 2% 10%  
264 2% 8%  
265 2% 6%  
266 0.8% 5%  
267 1.1% 4%  
268 0.6% 3%  
269 0.6% 2%  
270 0.4% 2%  
271 0.3% 1.1%  
272 0.2% 0.8%  
273 0.2% 0.6%  
274 0.1% 0.4%  
275 0.1% 0.3%  
276 0.1% 0.2%  
277 0.1% 0.2%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0.1% 99.9%  
216 0.1% 99.8%  
217 0.1% 99.8%  
218 0.1% 99.7%  
219 0.2% 99.5%  
220 0.3% 99.4%  
221 0.4% 99.1%  
222 0.4% 98.8% Last Result
223 0.6% 98%  
224 0.9% 98%  
225 0.9% 97%  
226 1.5% 96%  
227 1.3% 94%  
228 2% 93%  
229 2% 91%  
230 2% 89%  
231 3% 86%  
232 4% 84%  
233 3% 80%  
234 3% 77%  
235 4% 74%  
236 4% 71%  
237 4% 66%  
238 4% 62%  
239 5% 59%  
240 4% 53% Median
241 4% 49%  
242 5% 46%  
243 4% 41%  
244 4% 37%  
245 4% 33%  
246 3% 29%  
247 5% 26%  
248 3% 21%  
249 2% 17%  
250 4% 15%  
251 2% 11%  
252 2% 9%  
253 2% 7%  
254 1.0% 5%  
255 1.0% 4%  
256 0.8% 3%  
257 0.6% 2%  
258 0.4% 2%  
259 0.4% 1.4%  
260 0.2% 1.0%  
261 0.3% 0.8%  
262 0.1% 0.5%  
263 0.1% 0.4%  
264 0.1% 0.3%  
265 0.1% 0.2%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations