Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 28–29 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 25.0% 23.8–26.3% 23.4–26.6% 23.1–26.9% 22.6–27.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.3%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 17.0% 16.0–18.2% 15.7–18.5% 15.5–18.8% 15.0–19.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 3.9% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.7% 3.2–4.9% 2.9–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 187 178–197 176–199 174–202 169–206
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 143 135–151 132–154 130–156 126–160
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 128 120–136 118–138 116–140 112–144
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 76–89 74–92 73–93 70–97
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 83 76–89 74–91 73–93 70–97
Die Linke 69 53 47–58 46–60 45–61 42–64
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 33 29–37 28–38 27–40 25–42

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100% Last Result
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0.1% 99.9%  
167 0.1% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.8%  
169 0.2% 99.6%  
170 0.2% 99.4%  
171 0.4% 99.2%  
172 0.4% 98.8%  
173 0.6% 98%  
174 0.8% 98%  
175 1.2% 97%  
176 2% 96%  
177 2% 94%  
178 3% 92%  
179 3% 89%  
180 3% 86%  
181 3% 83%  
182 3% 80%  
183 5% 76%  
184 5% 71%  
185 7% 67%  
186 6% 60%  
187 6% 54% Median
188 5% 48%  
189 5% 43%  
190 4% 38%  
191 4% 34%  
192 5% 30%  
193 4% 25%  
194 4% 20%  
195 3% 16%  
196 3% 13%  
197 2% 10%  
198 2% 8%  
199 1.1% 6%  
200 1.3% 5%  
201 1.0% 4%  
202 0.7% 3%  
203 0.5% 2%  
204 0.5% 1.4%  
205 0.3% 0.9%  
206 0.2% 0.6%  
207 0.1% 0.4%  
208 0.1% 0.3%  
209 0.1% 0.2%  
210 0.1% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.2% 99.8%  
126 0.2% 99.6%  
127 0.3% 99.4%  
128 0.6% 99.2%  
129 0.5% 98.6%  
130 1.4% 98%  
131 1.0% 97%  
132 2% 96%  
133 1.5% 94%  
134 2% 93%  
135 4% 90%  
136 4% 87%  
137 7% 83%  
138 5% 76%  
139 4% 71%  
140 4% 67%  
141 6% 64%  
142 8% 58%  
143 8% 50% Median
144 7% 42%  
145 3% 35%  
146 4% 32%  
147 3% 28%  
148 5% 24%  
149 5% 20%  
150 4% 15%  
151 3% 10%  
152 1.4% 8%  
153 1.3% 6%  
154 1.2% 5%  
155 1.3% 4%  
156 0.9% 3%  
157 0.6% 2%  
158 0.4% 1.1%  
159 0.1% 0.7%  
160 0.2% 0.5%  
161 0.2% 0.4%  
162 0.1% 0.2%  
163 0.1% 0.1%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.2% 99.8%  
112 0.2% 99.6%  
113 0.3% 99.5%  
114 0.5% 99.2%  
115 0.9% 98.7%  
116 1.0% 98%  
117 1.5% 97%  
118 1.3% 95%  
119 2% 94%  
120 3% 92%  
121 4% 89%  
122 4% 85%  
123 5% 81%  
124 4% 76%  
125 6% 73%  
126 8% 67%  
127 8% 59%  
128 6% 52% Median
129 7% 46%  
130 4% 38%  
131 5% 34%  
132 7% 29%  
133 5% 22%  
134 3% 18%  
135 3% 15%  
136 3% 12%  
137 2% 8%  
138 2% 6%  
139 1.3% 5%  
140 1.1% 3%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0.4% 2%  
143 0.5% 1.3%  
144 0.3% 0.8%  
145 0.2% 0.5%  
146 0.1% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 0.6% 99.3%  
72 0.9% 98.7%  
73 1.2% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 2% 95%  
76 4% 92%  
77 5% 89%  
78 5% 84%  
79 7% 79%  
80 7% 73%  
81 7% 65%  
82 7% 58%  
83 9% 51% Median
84 7% 43%  
85 7% 36%  
86 6% 28%  
87 5% 22%  
88 5% 18%  
89 3% 13%  
90 3% 10%  
91 2% 7%  
92 1.5% 5%  
93 1.3% 4%  
94 0.8% 2% Last Result
95 0.6% 1.5%  
96 0.4% 0.9%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.4% 99.6%  
71 0.6% 99.2%  
72 0.8% 98.7%  
73 1.2% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 3% 95%  
76 4% 92%  
77 3% 88%  
78 7% 85%  
79 5% 78%  
80 7% 73% Last Result
81 8% 66%  
82 8% 58%  
83 7% 50% Median
84 7% 43%  
85 8% 36%  
86 7% 29%  
87 5% 22%  
88 4% 17%  
89 3% 13%  
90 2% 9%  
91 2% 7%  
92 2% 5%  
93 1.3% 3%  
94 0.7% 2%  
95 0.6% 1.4%  
96 0.2% 0.8%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.4%  
44 1.1% 98.9%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 4% 93%  
48 5% 89%  
49 6% 84%  
50 7% 78%  
51 9% 71%  
52 11% 62%  
53 9% 51% Median
54 9% 42%  
55 8% 33%  
56 6% 25%  
57 6% 19%  
58 4% 13%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.6% 1.4%  
64 0.4% 0.8%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.5% 99.8%  
26 1.1% 99.3%  
27 3% 98%  
28 4% 96%  
29 5% 92%  
30 11% 86%  
31 9% 75%  
32 12% 66%  
33 14% 54% Median
34 9% 40%  
35 10% 31%  
36 7% 21%  
37 5% 14%  
38 4% 9%  
39 2% 5%  
40 1.4% 3%  
41 0.7% 1.4%  
42 0.4% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 490 100% 481–500 478–503 476–506 471–510
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 431 100% 422–441 417–444 415–447 410–451
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 413 100% 403–423 400–426 397–428 392–433
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 386 100% 375–396 372–400 370–402 365–407
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 383 100% 373–393 369–396 367–399 362–403
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 348 22% 338–359 335–362 333–364 328–370
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 330 0.1% 320–340 317–343 314–346 309–351
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 326 0% 316–336 313–340 310–342 306–347
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 303 0% 293–314 291–317 288–319 283–324
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 270 0% 260–280 257–283 255–286 250–291
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 244 0% 234–254 231–256 229–259 224–264
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 243 0% 234–253 231–256 228–259 224–264
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 240 0% 230–250 228–253 225–255 220–260

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0.1% 99.9%  
468 0.1% 99.9%  
469 0.1% 99.8%  
470 0.1% 99.7%  
471 0.2% 99.7%  
472 0.2% 99.5%  
473 0.4% 99.3%  
474 0.4% 99.0%  
475 0.7% 98.5%  
476 0.7% 98%  
477 1.3% 97%  
478 1.4% 96%  
479 2% 94%  
480 1.4% 93%  
481 2% 92%  
482 2% 90%  
483 2% 88%  
484 3% 86%  
485 4% 82%  
486 7% 78%  
487 4% 71%  
488 7% 67%  
489 5% 60%  
490 6% 55%  
491 3% 49% Median
492 4% 46%  
493 3% 42%  
494 5% 38%  
495 3% 34%  
496 6% 31%  
497 4% 25%  
498 5% 20%  
499 4% 15%  
500 3% 12%  
501 2% 9%  
502 1.4% 7%  
503 0.9% 5%  
504 0.6% 4%  
505 0.8% 4%  
506 0.7% 3%  
507 0.6% 2%  
508 0.5% 1.5%  
509 0.4% 0.9%  
510 0.2% 0.6%  
511 0.1% 0.3%  
512 0.1% 0.2%  
513 0% 0.1%  
514 0% 0.1%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
406 0.1% 100%  
407 0.1% 99.9%  
408 0.1% 99.8%  
409 0.1% 99.7%  
410 0.2% 99.6%  
411 0.1% 99.4%  
412 0.1% 99.3%  
413 0.1% 99.1%  
414 0.8% 99.0%  
415 1.0% 98%  
416 1.2% 97%  
417 1.2% 96%  
418 2% 95%  
419 0.8% 93%  
420 0.8% 93%  
421 1.2% 92%  
422 3% 90%  
423 5% 88%  
424 5% 83%  
425 5% 78%  
426 4% 73%  
427 2% 69%  
428 2% 67%  
429 3% 65%  
430 8% 63%  
431 8% 55% Median
432 4% 47%  
433 10% 43%  
434 3% 33%  
435 3% 30%  
436 0.9% 27%  
437 3% 27%  
438 4% 24%  
439 7% 20%  
440 2% 13%  
441 4% 11%  
442 1.2% 7%  
443 0.7% 6%  
444 0.5% 5%  
445 1.0% 5%  
446 1.0% 4%  
447 1.1% 3%  
448 0.5% 2%  
449 0.7% 1.3%  
450 0.1% 0.6%  
451 0.1% 0.5%  
452 0.1% 0.4%  
453 0.1% 0.4%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0.1% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0.1% 99.9%  
389 0.1% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.8%  
391 0.1% 99.7%  
392 0.2% 99.6%  
393 0.2% 99.4%  
394 0.3% 99.2%  
395 0.4% 98.9%  
396 0.6% 98%  
397 1.0% 98%  
398 0.8% 97%  
399 1.1% 96%  
400 1.1% 95%  
401 2% 94%  
402 2% 92%  
403 3% 90%  
404 2% 87%  
405 3% 85%  
406 4% 81%  
407 2% 78%  
408 5% 75%  
409 4% 70%  
410 4% 66%  
411 6% 62%  
412 5% 56%  
413 6% 51% Median
414 4% 45%  
415 6% 41%  
416 3% 36%  
417 6% 32%  
418 4% 27%  
419 4% 23%  
420 4% 19%  
421 2% 15%  
422 2% 13%  
423 2% 11%  
424 1.4% 9%  
425 2% 7%  
426 1.4% 6%  
427 1.0% 4%  
428 0.8% 3%  
429 0.6% 2%  
430 0.4% 2%  
431 0.4% 1.3%  
432 0.3% 0.9%  
433 0.2% 0.6%  
434 0.2% 0.4%  
435 0.1% 0.3%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0.1% 0.2%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0.2% 99.6%  
366 0.2% 99.5%  
367 0.4% 99.3%  
368 0.7% 98.9%  
369 0.6% 98%  
370 0.6% 98%  
371 0.8% 97%  
372 1.5% 96%  
373 0.9% 95%  
374 2% 94%  
375 2% 92%  
376 2% 90%  
377 2% 88%  
378 3% 86%  
379 3% 83%  
380 3% 80%  
381 4% 78%  
382 5% 74%  
383 4% 69%  
384 5% 65%  
385 6% 60%  
386 6% 55%  
387 6% 49% Median
388 7% 43%  
389 4% 36%  
390 5% 32%  
391 4% 27%  
392 4% 24%  
393 3% 20% Last Result
394 4% 17%  
395 2% 13%  
396 3% 11%  
397 1.5% 9%  
398 1.1% 7%  
399 1.2% 6%  
400 0.7% 5%  
401 0.7% 4%  
402 1.4% 4%  
403 0.5% 2%  
404 0.4% 2%  
405 0.4% 1.2%  
406 0.2% 0.9%  
407 0.2% 0.7%  
408 0.2% 0.5%  
409 0.2% 0.3%  
410 0% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0.2% 99.7%  
362 0.2% 99.5%  
363 0.3% 99.4%  
364 0.3% 99.1%  
365 0.4% 98.8%  
366 0.5% 98%  
367 0.9% 98%  
368 0.9% 97%  
369 1.2% 96%  
370 1.2% 95%  
371 2% 94%  
372 2% 92%  
373 3% 90%  
374 2% 87%  
375 4% 85%  
376 4% 81%  
377 3% 77%  
378 4% 74%  
379 4% 70%  
380 4% 66%  
381 7% 63%  
382 6% 56%  
383 4% 50% Median
384 5% 46%  
385 4% 41%  
386 5% 37%  
387 5% 33%  
388 4% 27%  
389 4% 23%  
390 3% 20%  
391 3% 17%  
392 2% 14%  
393 2% 12%  
394 2% 10%  
395 1.2% 7%  
396 2% 6%  
397 1.1% 4%  
398 0.7% 3%  
399 0.6% 3%  
400 0.5% 2%  
401 0.5% 1.4%  
402 0.3% 1.0%  
403 0.2% 0.7%  
404 0.1% 0.5%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0.1% 0.2%  
407 0.1% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.8%  
327 0.2% 99.7%  
328 0.2% 99.5%  
329 0.2% 99.3%  
330 0.6% 99.1%  
331 0.4% 98.6%  
332 0.6% 98%  
333 1.2% 98%  
334 0.8% 96%  
335 1.4% 96%  
336 2% 94%  
337 2% 92%  
338 3% 91%  
339 2% 88%  
340 2% 86%  
341 3% 84%  
342 5% 81%  
343 3% 76%  
344 4% 73%  
345 4% 69%  
346 3% 65%  
347 8% 62%  
348 6% 54% Median
349 3% 48%  
350 6% 45%  
351 4% 39%  
352 5% 35%  
353 5% 30%  
354 3% 25%  
355 4% 22% Majority
356 3% 18%  
357 2% 15%  
358 2% 13%  
359 2% 11%  
360 2% 9%  
361 1.3% 7%  
362 2% 6%  
363 0.6% 4%  
364 0.8% 3%  
365 0.7% 2%  
366 0.2% 2%  
367 0.5% 1.5%  
368 0.3% 1.0%  
369 0.1% 0.6%  
370 0.2% 0.5%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.6%  
310 0.2% 99.4%  
311 0.3% 99.2%  
312 0.4% 98.9%  
313 0.4% 98.5%  
314 0.8% 98%  
315 0.9% 97%  
316 1.3% 96%  
317 1.1% 95%  
318 2% 94%  
319 2% 92%  
320 2% 90%  
321 4% 89%  
322 3% 85%  
323 3% 82%  
324 4% 79%  
325 4% 75%  
326 3% 71%  
327 4% 68%  
328 6% 63%  
329 5% 58%  
330 6% 53% Median
331 5% 46%  
332 4% 41%  
333 4% 38%  
334 4% 34%  
335 5% 29%  
336 3% 24%  
337 5% 22%  
338 3% 17%  
339 3% 14%  
340 2% 12%  
341 2% 10%  
342 2% 8%  
343 2% 6%  
344 0.9% 5%  
345 0.9% 4%  
346 0.8% 3%  
347 0.4% 2%  
348 0.5% 2%  
349 0.3% 1.2%  
350 0.3% 0.9%  
351 0.2% 0.6%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0.1% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.2% 99.5%  
307 0.3% 99.3%  
308 0.5% 99.0%  
309 0.5% 98.6%  
310 0.6% 98%  
311 0.7% 97%  
312 1.1% 97%  
313 2% 96%  
314 1.2% 94%  
315 2% 93%  
316 2% 90%  
317 2% 88%  
318 3% 86%  
319 3% 83%  
320 4% 80%  
321 4% 77%  
322 5% 73%  
323 5% 67%  
324 4% 63%  
325 5% 59%  
326 4% 54%  
327 6% 50% Median
328 7% 44%  
329 4% 37%  
330 4% 34%  
331 4% 30%  
332 3% 26%  
333 4% 23%  
334 4% 19%  
335 2% 15%  
336 3% 13%  
337 2% 10%  
338 2% 8%  
339 1.2% 6%  
340 1.2% 5%  
341 0.9% 4%  
342 0.9% 3%  
343 0.5% 2%  
344 0.4% 2%  
345 0.3% 1.2%  
346 0.3% 0.9%  
347 0.2% 0.6%  
348 0.2% 0.5%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.7%  
283 0.2% 99.5%  
284 0.3% 99.4%  
285 0.3% 99.1%  
286 0.4% 98.8%  
287 0.5% 98%  
288 0.9% 98%  
289 1.0% 97%  
290 0.9% 96%  
291 2% 95%  
292 2% 93%  
293 2% 92%  
294 3% 90%  
295 3% 86%  
296 3% 84%  
297 3% 80%  
298 4% 77%  
299 4% 74%  
300 5% 69%  
301 5% 65%  
302 5% 59%  
303 5% 54%  
304 4% 50% Median
305 6% 46%  
306 4% 39%  
307 5% 35%  
308 4% 30%  
309 4% 26%  
310 3% 23%  
311 4% 19%  
312 2% 15%  
313 3% 13% Last Result
314 2% 10%  
315 2% 8%  
316 1.3% 6%  
317 1.2% 5%  
318 1.0% 4%  
319 0.7% 3%  
320 0.4% 2%  
321 0.4% 2%  
322 0.4% 1.3%  
323 0.3% 0.9%  
324 0.2% 0.6%  
325 0.1% 0.4%  
326 0.1% 0.3%  
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0.1% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100% Last Result
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.8%  
249 0.2% 99.7%  
250 0.1% 99.6%  
251 0.3% 99.4%  
252 0.3% 99.1%  
253 0.6% 98.8%  
254 0.5% 98%  
255 1.0% 98%  
256 0.9% 97%  
257 1.1% 96%  
258 2% 95%  
259 2% 93%  
260 2% 91%  
261 3% 89%  
262 3% 86%  
263 3% 83%  
264 4% 80%  
265 4% 76%  
266 5% 72%  
267 4% 67%  
268 5% 63%  
269 5% 58%  
270 5% 53% Median
271 5% 48%  
272 5% 43%  
273 5% 38%  
274 5% 33%  
275 4% 29%  
276 4% 25%  
277 4% 21%  
278 2% 17%  
279 3% 15%  
280 2% 12%  
281 2% 9%  
282 1.0% 7%  
283 2% 6%  
284 1.0% 4%  
285 0.5% 3%  
286 0.7% 3%  
287 0.7% 2%  
288 0.4% 1.4%  
289 0.2% 1.0%  
290 0.3% 0.8%  
291 0.2% 0.5%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0.1% 0.3%  
294 0.1% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0.1% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0.1% 99.7%  
224 0.3% 99.6%  
225 0.3% 99.3%  
226 0.3% 99.0%  
227 0.4% 98.7%  
228 0.8% 98%  
229 1.0% 98%  
230 1.0% 97%  
231 2% 96%  
232 1.4% 94%  
233 2% 93%  
234 2% 90%  
235 3% 88%  
236 4% 86%  
237 4% 82%  
238 3% 78%  
239 4% 75%  
240 5% 71%  
241 5% 66%  
242 5% 61%  
243 5% 56%  
244 5% 51% Median
245 8% 46%  
246 4% 38%  
247 4% 34%  
248 4% 30%  
249 5% 26%  
250 4% 21%  
251 3% 18%  
252 2% 15%  
253 2% 12%  
254 3% 10%  
255 1.4% 7%  
256 1.3% 6%  
257 1.1% 5%  
258 1.0% 3%  
259 0.5% 3%  
260 0.5% 2%  
261 0.4% 2%  
262 0.4% 1.1%  
263 0.2% 0.7%  
264 0.1% 0.5%  
265 0.1% 0.4%  
266 0.1% 0.3%  
267 0.1% 0.2%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0.1% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0.1% 99.7%  
224 0.1% 99.6%  
225 0.3% 99.4%  
226 0.4% 99.1%  
227 0.3% 98.7%  
228 0.9% 98%  
229 0.8% 97%  
230 1.0% 97%  
231 1.1% 96%  
232 2% 95%  
233 3% 93%  
234 2% 90%  
235 3% 88%  
236 4% 86%  
237 2% 82%  
238 5% 80%  
239 5% 75%  
240 4% 70%  
241 6% 66%  
242 5% 60%  
243 6% 55%  
244 5% 49% Median
245 6% 45%  
246 5% 39%  
247 4% 34%  
248 4% 30%  
249 4% 26%  
250 4% 22%  
251 2% 18%  
252 3% 15%  
253 2% 12%  
254 2% 10%  
255 2% 8%  
256 2% 6%  
257 0.9% 4%  
258 0.8% 3%  
259 0.6% 3%  
260 0.6% 2%  
261 0.4% 1.4%  
262 0.3% 1.0%  
263 0.2% 0.7%  
264 0.2% 0.5%  
265 0.1% 0.4%  
266 0.1% 0.3%  
267 0% 0.2%  
268 0.1% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
215 0% 100%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0.1% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.8%  
220 0.2% 99.7%  
221 0.2% 99.5%  
222 0.3% 99.2% Last Result
223 0.4% 98.9%  
224 0.4% 98.6%  
225 0.7% 98%  
226 0.8% 97%  
227 1.1% 97%  
228 1.4% 96%  
229 2% 94%  
230 3% 92%  
231 3% 89%  
232 2% 86%  
233 3% 84%  
234 3% 81%  
235 5% 78%  
236 4% 73%  
237 5% 69%  
238 6% 65%  
239 5% 58%  
240 5% 53% Median
241 6% 48%  
242 4% 42%  
243 5% 38%  
244 4% 33%  
245 4% 29%  
246 4% 25%  
247 4% 21%  
248 3% 17%  
249 4% 14%  
250 2% 10%  
251 2% 9%  
252 1.2% 7%  
253 1.1% 6%  
254 1.1% 4%  
255 0.8% 3%  
256 0.6% 2%  
257 0.5% 2%  
258 0.4% 1.3%  
259 0.3% 0.9%  
260 0.2% 0.6%  
261 0.1% 0.4%  
262 0.1% 0.3%  
263 0.1% 0.2%  
264 0.1% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations