Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 27–30 August 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 25.0% 23.8–26.3% 23.5–26.6% 23.2–27.0% 22.6–27.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.5% 15.5–17.6% 15.2–17.9% 14.9–18.2% 14.4–18.7%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.5% 12.6–14.5% 12.3–14.8% 12.1–15.1% 11.6–15.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 189 180–198 177–201 175–204 171–208
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 124 117–133 115–135 113–137 109–141
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 115 106–123 104–126 102–127 98–132
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 103 95–110 93–112 91–113 88–117
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 75–91 74–93 72–95 70–99
Die Linke 69 52 47–59 45–61 44–63 42–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 44 35–48 34–49 33–50 31–52

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100% Last Result
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 100%  
166 0% 100%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.9%  
169 0.1% 99.8%  
170 0.1% 99.7%  
171 0.2% 99.6%  
172 0.3% 99.4%  
173 0.5% 99.1%  
174 0.6% 98.6%  
175 0.9% 98%  
176 1.2% 97%  
177 1.0% 96%  
178 2% 95%  
179 2% 93%  
180 2% 91%  
181 3% 89%  
182 4% 86%  
183 4% 81%  
184 4% 77%  
185 5% 73%  
186 5% 68%  
187 5% 64%  
188 6% 59%  
189 6% 52% Median
190 5% 47%  
191 5% 42%  
192 6% 37%  
193 5% 31%  
194 3% 27%  
195 5% 23%  
196 3% 19%  
197 3% 15%  
198 3% 13%  
199 2% 10%  
200 2% 8%  
201 1.2% 6%  
202 2% 5%  
203 0.8% 3%  
204 0.6% 3%  
205 0.5% 2%  
206 0.4% 1.3%  
207 0.3% 0.9%  
208 0.2% 0.6%  
209 0.1% 0.4%  
210 0.1% 0.3%  
211 0.1% 0.2%  
212 0.1% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.2% 99.6%  
110 0.4% 99.4%  
111 0.6% 99.1%  
112 0.7% 98.5%  
113 1.1% 98%  
114 2% 97%  
115 2% 95%  
116 3% 93%  
117 4% 91%  
118 3% 87%  
119 5% 84%  
120 5% 80%  
121 5% 75%  
122 7% 69%  
123 6% 63%  
124 7% 57% Median
125 6% 50%  
126 6% 44%  
127 7% 38%  
128 5% 31%  
129 5% 27%  
130 4% 22%  
131 4% 18%  
132 3% 14%  
133 3% 11%  
134 2% 8%  
135 1.4% 6%  
136 1.3% 4%  
137 1.0% 3%  
138 0.6% 2%  
139 0.6% 2%  
140 0.3% 1.0%  
141 0.3% 0.7%  
142 0.2% 0.4%  
143 0.1% 0.3%  
144 0.1% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.6%  
99 0.4% 99.4%  
100 0.5% 99.0%  
101 0.6% 98%  
102 1.1% 98%  
103 1.4% 97%  
104 1.4% 95%  
105 2% 94%  
106 3% 92%  
107 3% 89%  
108 3% 86%  
109 5% 83%  
110 5% 78%  
111 4% 73%  
112 7% 69%  
113 6% 62%  
114 5% 56%  
115 6% 51% Median
116 7% 45%  
117 5% 38%  
118 4% 33%  
119 5% 28%  
120 5% 23%  
121 3% 18%  
122 3% 16%  
123 3% 12%  
124 2% 9%  
125 2% 7%  
126 2% 5%  
127 1.1% 4%  
128 0.6% 2%  
129 0.7% 2%  
130 0.4% 1.1%  
131 0.2% 0.7%  
132 0.2% 0.5%  
133 0.2% 0.3%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 0.3% 99.6%  
89 0.5% 99.3%  
90 0.8% 98.8%  
91 1.1% 98%  
92 1.3% 97%  
93 2% 96%  
94 3% 94%  
95 3% 91%  
96 3% 88%  
97 5% 85%  
98 4% 80%  
99 5% 76%  
100 5% 71%  
101 6% 66%  
102 7% 60%  
103 8% 53% Median
104 6% 45%  
105 8% 39%  
106 7% 31%  
107 5% 25%  
108 5% 19%  
109 4% 14%  
110 3% 10%  
111 2% 7%  
112 1.5% 5%  
113 1.4% 4%  
114 0.7% 2%  
115 0.5% 2%  
116 0.4% 1.1%  
117 0.2% 0.7%  
118 0.2% 0.5%  
119 0.1% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0.1% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.4% 99.5%  
71 0.7% 99.1%  
72 1.2% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 95%  
75 3% 93%  
76 5% 90%  
77 5% 85%  
78 6% 80%  
79 6% 74%  
80 7% 68%  
81 7% 61%  
82 7% 54% Median
83 6% 47%  
84 6% 41%  
85 5% 35%  
86 5% 30%  
87 4% 25%  
88 4% 21%  
89 3% 17%  
90 3% 14%  
91 2% 11%  
92 2% 8%  
93 1.5% 6%  
94 2% 5% Last Result
95 0.9% 3%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.0%  
99 0.3% 0.7%  
100 0.1% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.6%  
43 0.8% 99.2%  
44 1.5% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 95%  
47 4% 91%  
48 6% 87%  
49 6% 81%  
50 9% 75%  
51 8% 66%  
52 9% 58% Median
53 8% 49%  
54 7% 41%  
55 8% 34%  
56 5% 26%  
57 5% 21%  
58 4% 16%  
59 3% 12%  
60 2% 9%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.3% 4%  
63 1.0% 3%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.3% 1.0%  
66 0.3% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.8%  
32 0.9% 99.4%  
33 2% 98.5%  
34 3% 97%  
35 4% 94%  
36 5% 90%  
37 4% 85%  
38 4% 81%  
39 3% 77%  
40 3% 73%  
41 3% 70%  
42 6% 67%  
43 8% 61%  
44 10% 53% Median
45 11% 42%  
46 10% 32% Last Result
47 8% 22%  
48 6% 13%  
49 4% 8%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.1% 2%  
52 0.5% 0.8%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 472 100% 458–482 455–485 452–487 447–491
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 450 100% 435–460 432–463 429–465 424–469
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 417 100% 406–427 403–429 401–432 395–437
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 386 99.9% 371–396 367–399 364–401 359–406
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 366 92% 356–378 353–381 350–384 345–389
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 347 21% 333–358 329–361 326–363 321–368
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 343 8% 331–353 328–356 325–359 320–364
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 313 0% 303–325 301–328 299–330 293–335
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 292 0% 281–302 279–305 276–307 271–312
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 283 0% 269–293 265–296 262–298 258–303
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 263 0% 244–270 242–272 240–275 236–281
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 242 0% 232–252 229–255 227–258 222–263
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 240 0% 229–250 226–253 224–255 219–261

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 99.9%  
444 0.1% 99.9%  
445 0.1% 99.8%  
446 0.1% 99.7%  
447 0.1% 99.6%  
448 0.2% 99.5%  
449 0.4% 99.2%  
450 0.5% 98.9%  
451 0.6% 98%  
452 0.7% 98%  
453 0.8% 97%  
454 0.9% 96%  
455 1.4% 95%  
456 2% 94%  
457 2% 92%  
458 2% 91%  
459 2% 89%  
460 2% 88%  
461 2% 86%  
462 2% 84%  
463 2% 82%  
464 3% 80%  
465 3% 77%  
466 2% 74% Last Result
467 4% 72%  
468 3% 68%  
469 4% 65%  
470 4% 60%  
471 5% 56%  
472 4% 51% Median
473 4% 47%  
474 5% 43%  
475 5% 38%  
476 5% 33%  
477 4% 29%  
478 4% 24%  
479 3% 21%  
480 3% 18%  
481 4% 15%  
482 3% 12%  
483 2% 9%  
484 2% 7%  
485 1.2% 5%  
486 1.1% 4%  
487 0.6% 3%  
488 0.8% 2%  
489 0.5% 2%  
490 0.4% 1.1%  
491 0.2% 0.7%  
492 0.1% 0.4%  
493 0.1% 0.3%  
494 0.1% 0.2%  
495 0.1% 0.1%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0.1% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.8%  
423 0.1% 99.8%  
424 0.2% 99.6%  
425 0.2% 99.4%  
426 0.3% 99.2%  
427 0.4% 98.9%  
428 0.6% 98%  
429 0.5% 98%  
430 1.0% 97%  
431 1.0% 96%  
432 1.0% 95%  
433 1.3% 94%  
434 1.3% 93%  
435 2% 92%  
436 2% 90%  
437 2% 88%  
438 3% 87%  
439 2% 84%  
440 2% 82%  
441 2% 80%  
442 3% 78%  
443 3% 75%  
444 3% 72%  
445 3% 70%  
446 3% 67%  
447 3% 64%  
448 3% 61%  
449 5% 57%  
450 4% 53%  
451 4% 48% Median
452 3% 44%  
453 5% 40%  
454 5% 36%  
455 4% 31%  
456 4% 26%  
457 4% 22%  
458 3% 18%  
459 3% 15%  
460 2% 12%  
461 2% 10%  
462 2% 7%  
463 1.3% 6%  
464 1.1% 4%  
465 1.0% 3%  
466 0.7% 2%  
467 0.5% 1.5%  
468 0.3% 1.0%  
469 0.2% 0.7%  
470 0.2% 0.5%  
471 0.1% 0.3%  
472 0.1% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 99.9%  
392 0.1% 99.9%  
393 0.1% 99.8%  
394 0.1% 99.8%  
395 0.1% 99.6%  
396 0.2% 99.5%  
397 0.3% 99.3%  
398 0.2% 99.0%  
399 0.5% 98.8%  
400 0.5% 98%  
401 0.8% 98%  
402 0.7% 97%  
403 1.3% 96%  
404 2% 95%  
405 2% 93%  
406 2% 91%  
407 4% 89%  
408 3% 86%  
409 3% 83%  
410 4% 80%  
411 3% 76%  
412 4% 72%  
413 4% 69%  
414 4% 65%  
415 5% 61%  
416 6% 56% Median
417 6% 50%  
418 5% 44%  
419 4% 39%  
420 5% 35%  
421 6% 30%  
422 2% 24%  
423 4% 22%  
424 2% 18%  
425 3% 16%  
426 3% 13%  
427 2% 10%  
428 2% 9%  
429 2% 7%  
430 0.9% 5%  
431 1.2% 4%  
432 0.7% 3%  
433 0.6% 2%  
434 0.5% 2%  
435 0.3% 1.0%  
436 0.2% 0.8%  
437 0.2% 0.6%  
438 0.1% 0.4%  
439 0.1% 0.3%  
440 0.1% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.8%  
358 0.1% 99.7%  
359 0.2% 99.6%  
360 0.3% 99.4%  
361 0.3% 99.1%  
362 0.4% 98.8%  
363 0.5% 98%  
364 0.6% 98%  
365 1.1% 97%  
366 1.0% 96%  
367 1.0% 95%  
368 1.0% 94%  
369 1.3% 93%  
370 2% 92%  
371 2% 90%  
372 2% 88%  
373 2% 87%  
374 2% 85%  
375 2% 83%  
376 3% 81%  
377 3% 78%  
378 2% 76%  
379 3% 74%  
380 2% 71%  
381 3% 69%  
382 3% 66%  
383 5% 63%  
384 3% 58%  
385 3% 55%  
386 3% 51% Median
387 4% 48%  
388 5% 44%  
389 6% 39%  
390 4% 33%  
391 4% 30%  
392 3% 26%  
393 4% 23% Last Result
394 4% 18%  
395 2% 14%  
396 3% 12%  
397 2% 9%  
398 2% 7%  
399 1.3% 5%  
400 1.0% 4%  
401 0.8% 3%  
402 0.8% 2%  
403 0.5% 2%  
404 0.3% 1.0%  
405 0.2% 0.7%  
406 0.2% 0.5%  
407 0.1% 0.3%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.7%  
345 0.1% 99.6%  
346 0.2% 99.5%  
347 0.2% 99.2%  
348 0.4% 99.0%  
349 0.6% 98.6%  
350 0.7% 98%  
351 0.6% 97%  
352 1.4% 97%  
353 1.4% 95%  
354 1.4% 94%  
355 2% 92% Majority
356 3% 91%  
357 3% 87%  
358 3% 85%  
359 4% 82%  
360 4% 78%  
361 3% 74%  
362 4% 71%  
363 5% 67%  
364 4% 62%  
365 4% 58% Median
366 5% 54%  
367 4% 49%  
368 5% 44%  
369 4% 40%  
370 5% 36%  
371 4% 31%  
372 3% 27%  
373 3% 24%  
374 3% 21%  
375 3% 17%  
376 2% 15%  
377 2% 13%  
378 2% 11%  
379 1.1% 8%  
380 1.4% 7%  
381 1.4% 6%  
382 0.8% 4%  
383 0.7% 4%  
384 0.7% 3%  
385 0.6% 2%  
386 0.3% 2%  
387 0.5% 1.3%  
388 0.2% 0.8%  
389 0.2% 0.6%  
390 0.1% 0.4%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0.1% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.8%  
321 0.2% 99.6%  
322 0.2% 99.5%  
323 0.3% 99.2%  
324 0.4% 98.9%  
325 0.5% 98.5%  
326 0.6% 98%  
327 0.7% 97%  
328 1.0% 97%  
329 1.0% 96%  
330 1.0% 95%  
331 1.5% 94%  
332 2% 92%  
333 2% 90%  
334 2% 89%  
335 2% 87%  
336 2% 85%  
337 2% 83%  
338 3% 81%  
339 2% 78%  
340 3% 76%  
341 2% 73%  
342 3% 71%  
343 2% 68%  
344 4% 65%  
345 4% 61%  
346 4% 57%  
347 3% 53%  
348 4% 50% Median
349 4% 45%  
350 3% 41%  
351 5% 38%  
352 5% 33%  
353 3% 27%  
354 4% 24%  
355 4% 21% Majority
356 3% 17%  
357 3% 14%  
358 2% 11%  
359 2% 9%  
360 2% 7%  
361 1.2% 5%  
362 1.1% 4%  
363 0.7% 3%  
364 0.7% 2%  
365 0.5% 2%  
366 0.4% 1.2%  
367 0.3% 0.8%  
368 0.2% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0.1% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.1% 99.7%  
320 0.2% 99.6%  
321 0.2% 99.4%  
322 0.5% 99.2%  
323 0.3% 98.7%  
324 0.6% 98%  
325 0.7% 98%  
326 0.7% 97%  
327 0.8% 96%  
328 1.4% 96%  
329 1.4% 94%  
330 1.1% 93%  
331 2% 92%  
332 2% 89%  
333 2% 87%  
334 3% 85%  
335 3% 83%  
336 3% 79%  
337 3% 76%  
338 4% 73%  
339 5% 69%  
340 4% 64%  
341 5% 60%  
342 4% 56%  
343 5% 51%  
344 4% 46% Median
345 4% 42%  
346 5% 38%  
347 4% 33%  
348 3% 29%  
349 4% 26%  
350 4% 22%  
351 3% 18%  
352 3% 15%  
353 3% 13%  
354 2% 9%  
355 1.4% 8% Majority
356 1.4% 6%  
357 1.4% 5%  
358 0.6% 3%  
359 0.7% 3%  
360 0.6% 2%  
361 0.4% 1.4%  
362 0.2% 1.0%  
363 0.2% 0.8%  
364 0.1% 0.5%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.2% 99.6%  
294 0.2% 99.5%  
295 0.2% 99.3%  
296 0.4% 99.1%  
297 0.5% 98.7%  
298 0.7% 98%  
299 0.8% 98%  
300 1.4% 97%  
301 2% 95%  
302 2% 94%  
303 2% 92%  
304 3% 90%  
305 3% 87%  
306 3% 84%  
307 4% 81%  
308 4% 77%  
309 4% 74%  
310 5% 70%  
311 5% 64%  
312 5% 59%  
313 5% 54% Median
314 4% 49%  
315 5% 45%  
316 4% 40%  
317 4% 36%  
318 3% 32%  
319 4% 29%  
320 3% 25%  
321 4% 22%  
322 3% 18%  
323 3% 15%  
324 2% 12%  
325 2% 10%  
326 2% 8%  
327 1.1% 6%  
328 1.1% 5%  
329 0.8% 4%  
330 0.8% 3%  
331 0.6% 2%  
332 0.4% 2%  
333 0.5% 1.3%  
334 0.2% 0.8%  
335 0.1% 0.5%  
336 0.2% 0.4%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100% Last Result
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.7%  
271 0.2% 99.6%  
272 0.2% 99.4%  
273 0.4% 99.2%  
274 0.4% 98.9%  
275 0.7% 98%  
276 0.5% 98%  
277 1.0% 97%  
278 1.0% 96%  
279 2% 95%  
280 2% 94%  
281 2% 92%  
282 2% 90%  
283 3% 88%  
284 3% 85%  
285 4% 82%  
286 4% 78%  
287 4% 75%  
288 5% 71%  
289 5% 66%  
290 5% 61%  
291 5% 56%  
292 5% 51% Median
293 4% 45%  
294 5% 41%  
295 4% 36%  
296 5% 32%  
297 3% 27%  
298 5% 24%  
299 3% 19%  
300 3% 16%  
301 2% 13%  
302 2% 11%  
303 2% 8%  
304 2% 7%  
305 1.0% 5%  
306 1.0% 4%  
307 0.8% 3%  
308 0.6% 2%  
309 0.5% 2%  
310 0.3% 1.3%  
311 0.3% 1.0%  
312 0.2% 0.6%  
313 0.2% 0.5%  
314 0.1% 0.3%  
315 0.1% 0.2%  
316 0.1% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.6%  
258 0.3% 99.5%  
259 0.3% 99.2%  
260 0.5% 98.9%  
261 0.4% 98%  
262 0.7% 98%  
263 0.7% 97%  
264 1.0% 97%  
265 1.1% 96%  
266 1.3% 94%  
267 2% 93%  
268 1.5% 92%  
269 2% 90%  
270 2% 88%  
271 2% 86%  
272 2% 84%  
273 2% 82%  
274 2% 80%  
275 2% 77%  
276 3% 75%  
277 2% 72%  
278 2% 70%  
279 4% 68%  
280 4% 64%  
281 4% 60%  
282 5% 57%  
283 3% 52% Median
284 6% 49%  
285 4% 43%  
286 5% 39%  
287 4% 35%  
288 4% 31%  
289 5% 27%  
290 3% 22%  
291 4% 19%  
292 3% 15%  
293 2% 12%  
294 2% 10%  
295 2% 8%  
296 1.3% 6%  
297 1.1% 4%  
298 0.8% 3%  
299 0.8% 2%  
300 0.5% 2%  
301 0.4% 1.2%  
302 0.2% 0.8%  
303 0.2% 0.6%  
304 0.1% 0.4%  
305 0.1% 0.2%  
306 0.1% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0.2% 99.7%  
237 0.3% 99.5%  
238 0.6% 99.1%  
239 0.7% 98.5%  
240 1.0% 98%  
241 2% 97%  
242 2% 95%  
243 2% 94%  
244 2% 92%  
245 2% 89%  
246 1.3% 88%  
247 1.4% 86%  
248 1.4% 85%  
249 1.5% 84%  
250 1.2% 82%  
251 2% 81%  
252 2% 79%  
253 3% 77%  
254 3% 74%  
255 3% 71%  
256 3% 68%  
257 2% 66%  
258 3% 64%  
259 2% 61%  
260 2% 59%  
261 3% 57%  
262 3% 54% Median
263 4% 51%  
264 5% 47%  
265 6% 42%  
266 7% 36%  
267 5% 29%  
268 5% 23%  
269 5% 18%  
270 3% 13%  
271 3% 9%  
272 2% 7%  
273 0.9% 4%  
274 0.9% 4%  
275 0.6% 3%  
276 0.5% 2%  
277 0.3% 2%  
278 0.3% 1.3%  
279 0.3% 1.0%  
280 0.2% 0.7%  
281 0.1% 0.5%  
282 0.1% 0.4%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0.1% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.9%  
220 0.1% 99.8%  
221 0.1% 99.7%  
222 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
223 0.4% 99.4%  
224 0.4% 99.0%  
225 0.7% 98.6%  
226 0.4% 98%  
227 1.3% 98%  
228 0.8% 96%  
229 1.2% 95%  
230 2% 94%  
231 1.5% 92%  
232 3% 90%  
233 3% 87%  
234 4% 85%  
235 3% 81%  
236 4% 78%  
237 4% 74%  
238 5% 70%  
239 4% 65%  
240 5% 61%  
241 6% 56% Median
242 4% 50%  
243 5% 46%  
244 4% 41%  
245 5% 37%  
246 4% 32%  
247 4% 28%  
248 3% 24%  
249 3% 20%  
250 3% 17%  
251 2% 14%  
252 2% 12%  
253 2% 9%  
254 2% 8%  
255 1.2% 6%  
256 1.1% 5%  
257 0.9% 4%  
258 0.6% 3%  
259 0.6% 2%  
260 0.4% 2%  
261 0.4% 1.2%  
262 0.2% 0.9%  
263 0.2% 0.7%  
264 0.1% 0.5%  
265 0.1% 0.3%  
266 0.1% 0.2%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0.1% 99.9%  
216 0.1% 99.8%  
217 0.1% 99.8%  
218 0.1% 99.7%  
219 0.2% 99.6%  
220 0.3% 99.3%  
221 0.4% 99.1%  
222 0.5% 98.7%  
223 0.6% 98%  
224 0.6% 98%  
225 0.9% 97%  
226 1.3% 96%  
227 1.2% 95%  
228 2% 94%  
229 2% 92%  
230 2% 90%  
231 2% 88%  
232 3% 86%  
233 3% 82%  
234 4% 80%  
235 5% 76%  
236 5% 72%  
237 4% 67%  
238 5% 63%  
239 5% 57%  
240 4% 52%  
241 6% 48% Median
242 5% 42%  
243 3% 37%  
244 5% 34%  
245 5% 29%  
246 3% 24%  
247 3% 21%  
248 4% 18%  
249 2% 15%  
250 3% 12%  
251 2% 10%  
252 2% 8%  
253 1.5% 6%  
254 1.1% 4%  
255 0.9% 3%  
256 0.7% 2%  
257 0.4% 2%  
258 0.3% 1.3%  
259 0.3% 1.0%  
260 0.2% 0.7%  
261 0.2% 0.5%  
262 0.1% 0.3%  
263 0.1% 0.2%  
264 0.1% 0.2%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations