Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 30 August–3 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 25.0% 23.6–26.5% 23.2–27.0% 22.8–27.3% 22.2–28.1%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 16.3% 15.1–17.6% 14.7–17.9% 14.4–18.3% 13.9–18.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.4–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.6–18.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 13.0% 11.9–14.3% 11.6–14.6% 11.4–14.9% 10.9–15.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.5% 10.4–13.8% 9.9–14.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–8.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 3.7% 3.1–4.5% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.6–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 189 179–200 175–203 173–207 168–212
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 124 114–133 112–135 109–138 105–143
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 121 112–130 109–133 107–136 103–140
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 99 91–107 88–110 86–113 82–117
Alternative für Deutschland 94 91 83–99 81–102 79–104 75–108
Die Linke 69 53 47–60 45–62 44–64 41–67
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 31 27–36 26–38 25–39 23–42

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100% Last Result
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.9%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0.2% 99.8%  
167 0.1% 99.7%  
168 0.2% 99.5%  
169 0.2% 99.4%  
170 0.3% 99.2%  
171 0.6% 98.8%  
172 0.4% 98%  
173 0.7% 98%  
174 0.6% 97%  
175 2% 96%  
176 1.4% 95%  
177 1.4% 93%  
178 2% 92%  
179 2% 90%  
180 3% 88%  
181 2% 85%  
182 3% 83%  
183 3% 80%  
184 4% 77%  
185 5% 73%  
186 4% 68%  
187 4% 64%  
188 5% 60%  
189 7% 56% Median
190 4% 49%  
191 5% 45%  
192 5% 40%  
193 4% 35%  
194 5% 31%  
195 2% 26%  
196 4% 23%  
197 2% 19%  
198 4% 17%  
199 2% 13%  
200 2% 11%  
201 2% 10%  
202 1.3% 8%  
203 1.4% 6%  
204 0.5% 5%  
205 1.1% 4%  
206 0.5% 3%  
207 0.6% 3%  
208 0.5% 2%  
209 0.2% 1.4%  
210 0.4% 1.2%  
211 0.2% 0.8%  
212 0.2% 0.6%  
213 0.1% 0.4%  
214 0.1% 0.3%  
215 0% 0.2%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0.1%  
220 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.7%  
105 0.2% 99.6%  
106 0.2% 99.4%  
107 0.6% 99.2%  
108 0.5% 98.6%  
109 0.9% 98%  
110 0.7% 97%  
111 1.4% 97%  
112 1.4% 95%  
113 2% 94%  
114 3% 92%  
115 2% 89%  
116 4% 87%  
117 3% 83%  
118 5% 80%  
119 3% 75%  
120 6% 71%  
121 5% 66%  
122 5% 61%  
123 5% 56%  
124 6% 51% Median
125 7% 44%  
126 4% 38%  
127 7% 33%  
128 3% 27%  
129 4% 23%  
130 3% 19%  
131 3% 17%  
132 2% 13%  
133 3% 11%  
134 2% 8%  
135 2% 7%  
136 1.3% 5%  
137 0.8% 4%  
138 0.8% 3%  
139 0.5% 2%  
140 0.4% 1.5%  
141 0.3% 1.1%  
142 0.2% 0.8%  
143 0.2% 0.6%  
144 0.1% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.1% 99.6%  
104 0.4% 99.5%  
105 0.4% 99.1%  
106 0.5% 98.7%  
107 0.7% 98%  
108 1.4% 97%  
109 2% 96%  
110 1.0% 95%  
111 2% 94%  
112 3% 91%  
113 2% 88%  
114 3% 86%  
115 6% 83%  
116 4% 77%  
117 3% 72%  
118 5% 70%  
119 9% 65%  
120 3% 56%  
121 4% 53% Median
122 8% 49%  
123 4% 40%  
124 3% 36%  
125 6% 33%  
126 7% 27%  
127 1.4% 20%  
128 3% 19%  
129 4% 16%  
130 2% 11%  
131 1.1% 10%  
132 3% 8%  
133 2% 6%  
134 0.4% 4%  
135 1.0% 4%  
136 1.1% 3%  
137 0.3% 2%  
138 0.2% 1.4%  
139 0.6% 1.2%  
140 0.2% 0.6%  
141 0.1% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.4%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 0.2% 99.7%  
83 0.4% 99.5%  
84 0.4% 99.1%  
85 0.6% 98.7%  
86 1.0% 98%  
87 0.8% 97%  
88 1.4% 96%  
89 2% 95%  
90 2% 93%  
91 4% 90%  
92 5% 87%  
93 3% 82%  
94 3% 78%  
95 6% 75%  
96 6% 69%  
97 5% 63%  
98 5% 58%  
99 6% 52% Median
100 6% 47%  
101 6% 40%  
102 4% 34%  
103 4% 30%  
104 6% 26%  
105 4% 20%  
106 3% 16%  
107 3% 13%  
108 2% 10%  
109 1.3% 8%  
110 2% 6%  
111 1.2% 5%  
112 1.0% 4%  
113 0.8% 3%  
114 0.5% 2%  
115 0.4% 1.2%  
116 0.3% 0.9%  
117 0.1% 0.5%  
118 0.1% 0.4%  
119 0.1% 0.3%  
120 0.1% 0.2%  
121 0% 0.1%  
122 0% 0.1%  
123 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.4% 99.5%  
77 0.5% 99.0%  
78 0.8% 98%  
79 0.8% 98%  
80 1.2% 97%  
81 1.2% 96%  
82 2% 94%  
83 3% 92%  
84 5% 89%  
85 6% 84%  
86 4% 78%  
87 4% 75%  
88 5% 70%  
89 6% 65%  
90 7% 59%  
91 7% 53% Median
92 8% 46%  
93 7% 38%  
94 4% 31% Last Result
95 3% 27%  
96 3% 24%  
97 4% 21%  
98 4% 18%  
99 4% 14%  
100 2% 10%  
101 2% 8%  
102 1.0% 5%  
103 0.9% 4%  
104 0.8% 3%  
105 0.7% 2%  
106 0.6% 2%  
107 0.5% 1.1%  
108 0.2% 0.6%  
109 0.1% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.7%  
42 0.5% 99.3%  
43 0.9% 98.8%  
44 2% 98%  
45 2% 96%  
46 3% 95%  
47 4% 92%  
48 3% 88%  
49 6% 84%  
50 6% 78%  
51 6% 72%  
52 10% 66%  
53 8% 56% Median
54 7% 47%  
55 9% 40%  
56 5% 31%  
57 5% 26%  
58 5% 21%  
59 4% 16%  
60 3% 12%  
61 3% 9%  
62 2% 6%  
63 2% 5%  
64 1.2% 3%  
65 0.5% 2%  
66 0.4% 1.2%  
67 0.3% 0.8%  
68 0.2% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 0.7% 99.6%  
24 1.1% 98.9%  
25 2% 98%  
26 4% 95%  
27 5% 91%  
28 8% 86%  
29 8% 78%  
30 10% 70%  
31 11% 60% Median
32 9% 49%  
33 10% 39%  
34 7% 30%  
35 7% 22%  
36 5% 15%  
37 3% 10%  
38 3% 7%  
39 2% 4%  
40 0.9% 2%  
41 0.6% 1.4%  
42 0.3% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0.1% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 466 100% 454–477 450–481 447–483 442–489
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 444 100% 431–456 428–458 425–462 419–467
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 410 100% 398–421 394–425 391–428 385–434
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 375 98% 363–387 360–391 356–394 350–400
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 364 85% 352–376 348–380 345–383 339–389
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 345 15% 333–357 329–361 326–364 320–370
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 345 15% 332–357 329–360 325–363 319–369
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 310 0% 298–322 295–327 292–329 286–335
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 289 0% 277–301 273–304 270–307 264–313
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 276 0% 264–288 261–292 258–295 252–301
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 254 0% 243–265 238–269 236–272 230–277
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 246 0% 234–257 231–261 228–264 222–270
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 243 0% 231–254 228–258 225–261 219–267

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0% 99.9%  
439 0.1% 99.8%  
440 0.1% 99.7%  
441 0.1% 99.7%  
442 0.2% 99.5%  
443 0.3% 99.3%  
444 0.2% 99.0%  
445 0.2% 98.8%  
446 0.4% 98.6%  
447 0.6% 98%  
448 1.2% 97%  
449 0.8% 96%  
450 0.8% 95%  
451 0.8% 95%  
452 1.4% 94%  
453 2% 92%  
454 2% 91%  
455 2% 88%  
456 2% 86%  
457 1.4% 84%  
458 4% 82%  
459 4% 79%  
460 5% 75%  
461 3% 70%  
462 4% 67%  
463 4% 64%  
464 6% 60%  
465 4% 54% Median
466 4% 50% Last Result
467 3% 46%  
468 4% 44%  
469 5% 40%  
470 6% 35%  
471 3% 29%  
472 3% 26%  
473 2% 23%  
474 5% 21%  
475 3% 16%  
476 2% 13%  
477 2% 11%  
478 1.3% 10%  
479 2% 8%  
480 1.3% 7%  
481 2% 5%  
482 0.7% 4%  
483 0.4% 3%  
484 0.4% 2%  
485 0.5% 2%  
486 0.6% 2%  
487 0.2% 1.0%  
488 0.2% 0.7%  
489 0.1% 0.5%  
490 0.1% 0.4%  
491 0.1% 0.4%  
492 0.1% 0.2%  
493 0% 0.2%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0.1%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0% 99.8%  
417 0.1% 99.8%  
418 0.1% 99.7%  
419 0.2% 99.6%  
420 0.3% 99.4%  
421 0.3% 99.1%  
422 0.3% 98.8%  
423 0.3% 98%  
424 0.5% 98%  
425 0.5% 98%  
426 0.7% 97%  
427 0.9% 97%  
428 1.2% 96%  
429 2% 94%  
430 2% 93%  
431 2% 91%  
432 2% 90%  
433 2% 88%  
434 2% 86%  
435 3% 84%  
436 3% 81%  
437 3% 78%  
438 4% 75%  
439 5% 71%  
440 6% 66%  
441 2% 60%  
442 4% 58%  
443 3% 54% Median
444 3% 51%  
445 5% 48%  
446 3% 42%  
447 7% 39%  
448 4% 32%  
449 4% 29%  
450 3% 24%  
451 2% 22%  
452 1.3% 20%  
453 3% 18%  
454 2% 16%  
455 3% 13%  
456 3% 10%  
457 1.3% 7%  
458 1.4% 6%  
459 0.8% 5%  
460 0.5% 4%  
461 0.7% 3%  
462 0.7% 3%  
463 0.6% 2%  
464 0.4% 1.4%  
465 0.3% 1.1%  
466 0.2% 0.7%  
467 0.1% 0.6%  
468 0.1% 0.4%  
469 0.1% 0.3%  
470 0.1% 0.3%  
471 0% 0.2%  
472 0% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.9%  
382 0.1% 99.8%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0.1% 99.7%  
385 0.2% 99.6%  
386 0.2% 99.4%  
387 0.3% 99.2%  
388 0.3% 99.0%  
389 0.5% 98.7%  
390 0.5% 98%  
391 0.6% 98%  
392 0.8% 97%  
393 0.8% 96%  
394 1.1% 96%  
395 1.3% 94%  
396 1.4% 93%  
397 2% 92%  
398 2% 90%  
399 2% 88%  
400 3% 86%  
401 3% 83%  
402 3% 80%  
403 3% 77%  
404 4% 74%  
405 3% 69%  
406 4% 67%  
407 4% 63%  
408 5% 59%  
409 4% 54% Median
410 5% 51%  
411 4% 45%  
412 4% 41%  
413 4% 37%  
414 4% 34%  
415 3% 29%  
416 3% 27%  
417 4% 23%  
418 3% 20%  
419 2% 16%  
420 3% 14%  
421 2% 12%  
422 2% 10%  
423 1.4% 8%  
424 1.0% 7%  
425 1.0% 6%  
426 1.0% 5%  
427 0.6% 4%  
428 0.7% 3%  
429 0.4% 2%  
430 0.5% 2%  
431 0.4% 1.4%  
432 0.2% 1.0%  
433 0.2% 0.8%  
434 0.2% 0.6%  
435 0.1% 0.5%  
436 0.1% 0.3%  
437 0.1% 0.3%  
438 0% 0.2%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0.2% 99.7%  
350 0.1% 99.6%  
351 0.2% 99.4%  
352 0.3% 99.3%  
353 0.3% 99.0%  
354 0.4% 98.7%  
355 0.3% 98% Majority
356 0.7% 98%  
357 0.5% 97%  
358 0.9% 97%  
359 0.7% 96%  
360 2% 95%  
361 1.0% 94%  
362 2% 93%  
363 2% 91%  
364 2% 89%  
365 2% 86%  
366 3% 85%  
367 2% 82%  
368 4% 80%  
369 3% 75%  
370 4% 72%  
371 4% 68%  
372 3% 64%  
373 3% 61%  
374 4% 58%  
375 5% 53% Median
376 4% 48%  
377 5% 44%  
378 3% 39%  
379 6% 37%  
380 2% 31%  
381 4% 28%  
382 3% 25%  
383 3% 22%  
384 2% 19%  
385 3% 16%  
386 1.5% 13%  
387 3% 12%  
388 1.1% 9%  
389 2% 8%  
390 1.3% 7%  
391 0.8% 5%  
392 0.7% 4%  
393 0.9% 4% Last Result
394 0.6% 3%  
395 0.5% 2%  
396 0.4% 2%  
397 0.4% 1.4%  
398 0.2% 1.0%  
399 0.2% 0.8%  
400 0.2% 0.6%  
401 0.1% 0.4%  
402 0.1% 0.3%  
403 0% 0.2%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.8%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.7%  
339 0.1% 99.6%  
340 0.2% 99.5%  
341 0.2% 99.3%  
342 0.3% 99.1%  
343 0.3% 98.8%  
344 0.7% 98.5%  
345 0.5% 98%  
346 0.7% 97%  
347 0.8% 97%  
348 1.0% 96%  
349 0.9% 95%  
350 1.3% 94%  
351 2% 93%  
352 2% 91%  
353 2% 88%  
354 2% 87%  
355 2% 85% Majority
356 5% 82%  
357 2% 77%  
358 3% 75%  
359 4% 72%  
360 4% 68%  
361 3% 64%  
362 5% 61%  
363 5% 56% Median
364 3% 52%  
365 5% 48%  
366 4% 44%  
367 5% 39%  
368 3% 34%  
369 4% 31%  
370 2% 27%  
371 3% 25%  
372 3% 21%  
373 3% 18%  
374 2% 15%  
375 2% 13%  
376 2% 12%  
377 1.3% 9%  
378 2% 8%  
379 0.8% 6%  
380 1.3% 5%  
381 0.8% 4%  
382 0.5% 3%  
383 0.7% 3%  
384 0.6% 2%  
385 0.3% 2%  
386 0.3% 1.3%  
387 0.2% 1.0%  
388 0.2% 0.8%  
389 0.1% 0.6%  
390 0.2% 0.5%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0.1% 0.2%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.2% 99.7%  
320 0.1% 99.5%  
321 0.2% 99.4%  
322 0.2% 99.2%  
323 0.3% 99.0%  
324 0.3% 98.7%  
325 0.6% 98%  
326 0.7% 98%  
327 0.5% 97%  
328 0.8% 97%  
329 1.3% 96%  
330 0.8% 95%  
331 2% 94%  
332 1.3% 92%  
333 2% 91%  
334 2% 88%  
335 2% 87%  
336 3% 85%  
337 3% 82%  
338 3% 79%  
339 2% 75%  
340 4% 73%  
341 3% 69%  
342 5% 66%  
343 4% 61%  
344 5% 56%  
345 3% 52% Median
346 5% 48%  
347 5% 44%  
348 3% 39%  
349 4% 36%  
350 4% 32%  
351 3% 28%  
352 2% 25%  
353 5% 23%  
354 2% 18%  
355 2% 15% Majority
356 2% 13%  
357 2% 12%  
358 2% 9%  
359 1.3% 7%  
360 0.9% 6%  
361 1.0% 5%  
362 0.8% 4%  
363 0.7% 3%  
364 0.5% 3%  
365 0.7% 2%  
366 0.3% 1.5%  
367 0.3% 1.2%  
368 0.2% 0.9%  
369 0.2% 0.7%  
370 0.1% 0.5%  
371 0.1% 0.4%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0.1% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.7%  
319 0.1% 99.6%  
320 0.2% 99.5%  
321 0.2% 99.3%  
322 0.3% 99.1%  
323 0.4% 98.8%  
324 0.4% 98%  
325 0.6% 98%  
326 0.8% 97%  
327 0.7% 97%  
328 0.7% 96%  
329 1.5% 95%  
330 1.2% 94%  
331 2% 93%  
332 2% 91%  
333 2% 89%  
334 3% 87%  
335 2% 84%  
336 3% 82%  
337 3% 79%  
338 2% 76%  
339 4% 74%  
340 3% 70%  
341 5% 67%  
342 2% 62%  
343 5% 60%  
344 4% 55% Median
345 3% 50%  
346 4% 47%  
347 4% 43%  
348 5% 39%  
349 4% 34%  
350 3% 31%  
351 3% 27%  
352 4% 24%  
353 3% 20%  
354 2% 17%  
355 3% 15% Majority
356 2% 12%  
357 2% 10%  
358 1.3% 8%  
359 1.3% 7%  
360 1.2% 6%  
361 0.9% 5%  
362 0.8% 4%  
363 0.7% 3%  
364 0.5% 2%  
365 0.3% 2%  
366 0.5% 2%  
367 0.2% 1.1%  
368 0.3% 0.9%  
369 0.1% 0.6%  
370 0.1% 0.5%  
371 0.1% 0.4%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0.2% 99.6%  
287 0.2% 99.5%  
288 0.3% 99.3%  
289 0.3% 99.0%  
290 0.5% 98.7%  
291 0.3% 98%  
292 0.5% 98%  
293 0.8% 97%  
294 1.1% 97%  
295 0.9% 95%  
296 1.3% 95%  
297 2% 93%  
298 2% 92%  
299 2% 90%  
300 2% 88%  
301 2% 85%  
302 2% 83%  
303 2% 81%  
304 4% 79%  
305 3% 74%  
306 4% 71%  
307 5% 68%  
308 7% 63%  
309 3% 56%  
310 5% 53% Median
311 4% 49%  
312 3% 45%  
313 3% 41%  
314 5% 39%  
315 3% 34%  
316 3% 31%  
317 5% 28%  
318 3% 23%  
319 3% 20%  
320 3% 17%  
321 2% 14%  
322 2% 12%  
323 1.2% 10%  
324 2% 9%  
325 1.0% 7%  
326 0.8% 6%  
327 1.3% 5%  
328 1.0% 4%  
329 0.5% 3%  
330 0.5% 2%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.3% 1.5%  
333 0.3% 1.2%  
334 0.2% 0.9%  
335 0.2% 0.7%  
336 0.1% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100% Last Result
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.7%  
264 0.1% 99.6%  
265 0.3% 99.5%  
266 0.2% 99.2%  
267 0.4% 99.0%  
268 0.3% 98.6%  
269 0.5% 98%  
270 0.6% 98%  
271 0.8% 97%  
272 1.0% 96%  
273 1.0% 95%  
274 1.0% 94%  
275 2% 93%  
276 2% 92%  
277 3% 90%  
278 2% 88%  
279 2% 85%  
280 3% 83%  
281 3% 80%  
282 3% 77%  
283 3% 74%  
284 6% 71%  
285 4% 65%  
286 4% 61%  
287 4% 57%  
288 3% 53% Median
289 5% 50%  
290 4% 45%  
291 4% 41%  
292 5% 37%  
293 4% 32%  
294 4% 29%  
295 3% 25%  
296 3% 22%  
297 2% 20%  
298 3% 17%  
299 3% 14%  
300 1.3% 12%  
301 2% 10%  
302 2% 8%  
303 0.9% 7%  
304 1.2% 6%  
305 0.7% 4%  
306 0.7% 4%  
307 0.8% 3%  
308 0.6% 2%  
309 0.3% 2%  
310 0.3% 1.4%  
311 0.3% 1.1%  
312 0.2% 0.8%  
313 0.2% 0.6%  
314 0.1% 0.4%  
315 0.1% 0.3%  
316 0% 0.2%  
317 0.1% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0.1% 99.7%  
252 0.2% 99.6%  
253 0.3% 99.4%  
254 0.2% 99.2%  
255 0.3% 99.0%  
256 0.5% 98.6%  
257 0.4% 98%  
258 0.6% 98%  
259 0.9% 97%  
260 0.7% 96%  
261 1.3% 95%  
262 1.4% 94%  
263 1.0% 93%  
264 2% 92%  
265 2% 89%  
266 2% 87%  
267 3% 85%  
268 3% 82%  
269 3% 79%  
270 4% 76%  
271 3% 73%  
272 4% 70%  
273 5% 66%  
274 3% 61%  
275 7% 59%  
276 4% 51% Median
277 3% 48%  
278 5% 45%  
279 5% 39%  
280 3% 35%  
281 4% 32%  
282 4% 28%  
283 2% 24%  
284 3% 22%  
285 3% 19%  
286 2% 16%  
287 3% 13%  
288 2% 11%  
289 2% 9%  
290 1.3% 8%  
291 1.1% 6%  
292 0.9% 5%  
293 0.8% 4%  
294 0.7% 3%  
295 0.6% 3%  
296 0.4% 2%  
297 0.3% 2%  
298 0.4% 1.4%  
299 0.2% 0.9%  
300 0.2% 0.7%  
301 0.2% 0.5%  
302 0.1% 0.4%  
303 0.1% 0.3%  
304 0.1% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.8%  
229 0.1% 99.7%  
230 0.1% 99.6%  
231 0.1% 99.5%  
232 0.2% 99.4%  
233 0.5% 99.2%  
234 0.5% 98.7%  
235 0.4% 98%  
236 0.4% 98%  
237 0.7% 97%  
238 2% 97%  
239 1.0% 95%  
240 1.2% 94%  
241 1.0% 93%  
242 1.2% 92%  
243 2% 90%  
244 4% 88%  
245 2% 84%  
246 2% 82%  
247 2% 80%  
248 5% 78%  
249 6% 74%  
250 5% 67%  
251 3% 63%  
252 2% 59%  
253 5% 57%  
254 5% 53% Median
255 5% 48%  
256 3% 42%  
257 2% 39%  
258 5% 38%  
259 4% 33%  
260 6% 28%  
261 3% 22%  
262 3% 20%  
263 1.3% 17%  
264 3% 16%  
265 3% 12%  
266 2% 10%  
267 0.8% 8%  
268 0.6% 7%  
269 2% 7%  
270 1.4% 5%  
271 0.8% 4%  
272 0.6% 3%  
273 0.4% 2%  
274 0.4% 2%  
275 0.5% 1.5%  
276 0.4% 1.0%  
277 0.1% 0.6%  
278 0.1% 0.5%  
279 0.1% 0.4%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0.1% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
216 0% 100%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0.1% 99.9%  
220 0.1% 99.8%  
221 0.1% 99.8%  
222 0.2% 99.6%  
223 0.2% 99.5%  
224 0.2% 99.3%  
225 0.3% 99.1%  
226 0.4% 98.8%  
227 0.4% 98%  
228 0.8% 98%  
229 0.5% 97%  
230 1.2% 97%  
231 1.0% 95%  
232 1.1% 94%  
233 1.1% 93%  
234 2% 92%  
235 2% 90%  
236 2% 88%  
237 3% 86%  
238 3% 83%  
239 3% 80%  
240 3% 77%  
241 4% 74%  
242 4% 70%  
243 4% 66%  
244 5% 62%  
245 5% 57%  
246 3% 52% Median
247 5% 49%  
248 5% 43%  
249 4% 38%  
250 3% 34%  
251 4% 31%  
252 3% 27%  
253 3% 24%  
254 4% 21%  
255 2% 17%  
256 2% 15%  
257 2% 12%  
258 2% 10%  
259 2% 8%  
260 1.0% 7%  
261 1.0% 6%  
262 1.1% 5%  
263 0.6% 3%  
264 0.7% 3%  
265 0.5% 2%  
266 0.5% 2%  
267 0.2% 1.2%  
268 0.3% 0.9%  
269 0.1% 0.7%  
270 0.1% 0.5%  
271 0.1% 0.4%  
272 0.1% 0.3%  
273 0% 0.2%  
274 0.1% 0.2%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0.1% 99.8%  
217 0.1% 99.8%  
218 0.1% 99.7%  
219 0.1% 99.6%  
220 0.2% 99.5%  
221 0.2% 99.3%  
222 0.4% 99.1% Last Result
223 0.3% 98.7%  
224 0.6% 98%  
225 0.6% 98%  
226 0.7% 97%  
227 0.8% 97%  
228 1.4% 96%  
229 1.2% 94%  
230 2% 93%  
231 2% 91%  
232 2% 89%  
233 2% 87%  
234 3% 85%  
235 3% 83%  
236 4% 79%  
237 4% 76%  
238 4% 72%  
239 3% 68%  
240 4% 65%  
241 5% 61%  
242 4% 56% Median
243 5% 52%  
244 4% 47%  
245 4% 43%  
246 4% 39%  
247 5% 35%  
248 4% 30%  
249 3% 26%  
250 4% 24%  
251 3% 20%  
252 2% 17%  
253 2% 14%  
254 3% 13%  
255 2% 10%  
256 1.5% 8%  
257 1.3% 7%  
258 1.0% 5%  
259 1.0% 4%  
260 0.8% 3%  
261 0.5% 3%  
262 0.6% 2%  
263 0.3% 2%  
264 0.3% 1.3%  
265 0.3% 1.0%  
266 0.1% 0.7%  
267 0.1% 0.5%  
268 0.1% 0.4%  
269 0.1% 0.3%  
270 0.1% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations