Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 3–6 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 26.0% 24.8–27.3% 24.5–27.7% 24.2–28.0% 23.6–28.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.2–16.9% 14.0–17.1% 13.5–17.7%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.2–16.9% 14.0–17.1% 13.5–17.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.4–13.8% 11.2–14.0% 10.7–14.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 6.5% 5.8–7.2% 5.6–7.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–8.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 5.0% 4.5–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4%
Freie Wähler 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.5–3.7% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 197 191–208 188–212 187–214 181–219
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 118 113–126 109–130 107–132 103–135
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 119 111–126 108–128 107–130 104–134
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 97 89–104 87–106 86–107 82–111
Alternative für Deutschland 94 85 78–92 76–94 75–95 72–99
Die Linke 69 50 45–55 44–56 42–58 40–61
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 42 37–46 36–48 35–49 33–52
Freie Wähler 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100% Last Result
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 100%  
166 0% 100%  
167 0% 100%  
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 100%  
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 100%  
176 0% 100%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0.1% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.8%  
180 0.1% 99.7%  
181 0.2% 99.6%  
182 0.1% 99.4%  
183 0.3% 99.3%  
184 0.6% 99.1%  
185 0.4% 98.5%  
186 0.6% 98%  
187 2% 98%  
188 1.2% 96%  
189 1.5% 95%  
190 3% 93%  
191 3% 90%  
192 5% 87%  
193 4% 82%  
194 9% 78%  
195 9% 69%  
196 5% 60%  
197 6% 55% Median
198 5% 49%  
199 10% 44%  
200 2% 34%  
201 4% 32%  
202 6% 27%  
203 2% 21%  
204 3% 20%  
205 3% 17%  
206 2% 14%  
207 2% 12%  
208 1.3% 10%  
209 1.2% 9%  
210 2% 8%  
211 1.1% 6%  
212 2% 5%  
213 0.7% 3%  
214 0.6% 3%  
215 0.7% 2%  
216 0.3% 1.4%  
217 0.4% 1.2%  
218 0.2% 0.7%  
219 0.1% 0.6%  
220 0.2% 0.5%  
221 0.1% 0.2%  
222 0.1% 0.2%  
223 0.1% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.9%  
103 0.2% 99.7%  
104 0.3% 99.5%  
105 0.3% 99.1%  
106 0.6% 98.8%  
107 2% 98%  
108 1.2% 97%  
109 0.7% 95%  
110 0.7% 95%  
111 1.3% 94%  
112 2% 93%  
113 4% 91%  
114 5% 87%  
115 6% 82%  
116 7% 76%  
117 12% 69%  
118 10% 56% Median
119 6% 46%  
120 5% 40%  
121 6% 34%  
122 8% 29%  
123 6% 21%  
124 2% 15%  
125 2% 12%  
126 2% 11%  
127 1.4% 9%  
128 1.0% 8%  
129 0.9% 7%  
130 0.7% 6%  
131 2% 5%  
132 1.2% 3%  
133 0.8% 2%  
134 0.3% 1.1%  
135 0.3% 0.7%  
136 0.2% 0.5%  
137 0.2% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0.1% 0.1%  
140 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.2% 99.7%  
105 0.4% 99.4%  
106 1.1% 99.0%  
107 1.1% 98%  
108 2% 97%  
109 2% 95%  
110 3% 93%  
111 3% 90%  
112 6% 87%  
113 6% 81%  
114 6% 75%  
115 5% 69%  
116 4% 64%  
117 3% 60%  
118 6% 57%  
119 8% 51% Median
120 7% 42%  
121 5% 35%  
122 3% 30%  
123 3% 27%  
124 6% 25%  
125 5% 19%  
126 4% 13%  
127 3% 9%  
128 2% 6%  
129 1.1% 5%  
130 1.2% 4%  
131 0.8% 2%  
132 0.6% 2%  
133 0.3% 1.0%  
134 0.2% 0.7%  
135 0.1% 0.5%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.2%  
138 0.1% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.7%  
83 0.4% 99.5%  
84 0.7% 99.1%  
85 0.8% 98%  
86 1.0% 98%  
87 2% 97%  
88 2% 95%  
89 3% 92%  
90 3% 90%  
91 5% 86%  
92 4% 81%  
93 5% 76%  
94 7% 72%  
95 8% 64%  
96 5% 57%  
97 9% 51% Median
98 8% 43%  
99 5% 35%  
100 5% 30%  
101 7% 25%  
102 3% 18%  
103 3% 14%  
104 4% 12%  
105 3% 8%  
106 1.3% 5%  
107 2% 4%  
108 0.8% 2%  
109 0.4% 2%  
110 0.6% 1.1%  
111 0.2% 0.6%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.3% 99.5%  
73 0.6% 99.2%  
74 0.8% 98.6%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 96%  
77 3% 94%  
78 2% 91%  
79 4% 89%  
80 6% 84%  
81 6% 79%  
82 5% 73%  
83 7% 68%  
84 8% 61%  
85 8% 53% Median
86 6% 45%  
87 6% 39%  
88 6% 33%  
89 6% 28%  
90 5% 21%  
91 5% 16%  
92 3% 11%  
93 3% 8%  
94 2% 5% Last Result
95 0.9% 3%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.5% 2%  
98 0.5% 1.1%  
99 0.3% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.8%  
40 0.4% 99.7%  
41 0.8% 99.2%  
42 1.2% 98%  
43 2% 97%  
44 3% 95%  
45 3% 92%  
46 8% 89%  
47 10% 81%  
48 5% 70%  
49 8% 65%  
50 8% 57% Median
51 8% 50%  
52 9% 41%  
53 6% 33%  
54 9% 26%  
55 9% 17%  
56 3% 8%  
57 2% 5%  
58 1.3% 3%  
59 0.6% 2%  
60 0.5% 1.1%  
61 0.3% 0.7%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.5% 99.7%  
34 0.9% 99.1%  
35 2% 98%  
36 3% 96%  
37 5% 94%  
38 7% 89%  
39 5% 81%  
40 12% 76%  
41 10% 64%  
42 12% 54% Median
43 10% 43%  
44 9% 32%  
45 7% 23%  
46 6% 16% Last Result
47 4% 10%  
48 2% 6%  
49 2% 4%  
50 0.8% 2%  
51 0.7% 1.3%  
52 0.3% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 476 100% 469–487 466–491 464–494 460–500
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 455 100% 446–464 444–468 441–471 436–478
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 413 100% 403–424 401–426 399–429 393–435
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 376 99.6% 365–386 362–389 360–391 355–397
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 367 95% 358–377 355–380 352–383 347–389
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 357 69% 350–369 348–374 346–377 339–382
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 342 5% 332–351 329–354 326–357 320–362
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 316 0% 308–327 305–331 303–334 298–340
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 294 0% 285–305 282–308 280–310 275–316
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 279 0% 269–290 266–292 264–295 260–300
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 257 0% 247–267 244–270 242–272 237–277
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 248 0% 239–258 236–261 233–264 229–269
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 246 0% 235–255 233–258 231–260 226–265

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
453 0% 100%  
454 0% 99.9%  
455 0.1% 99.9%  
456 0% 99.9%  
457 0% 99.8%  
458 0.1% 99.8%  
459 0.1% 99.7%  
460 0.1% 99.6%  
461 0.2% 99.5%  
462 0.4% 99.3%  
463 0.4% 98.8%  
464 1.2% 98%  
465 2% 97%  
466 2% 95% Last Result
467 0.9% 94%  
468 2% 93%  
469 4% 91%  
470 4% 87%  
471 6% 83%  
472 5% 78%  
473 6% 73%  
474 8% 67%  
475 5% 59%  
476 6% 54% Median
477 4% 48%  
478 3% 44%  
479 5% 41%  
480 6% 36%  
481 3% 29%  
482 4% 26%  
483 4% 22%  
484 4% 19%  
485 3% 15%  
486 1.2% 12%  
487 2% 11%  
488 2% 9%  
489 0.9% 8%  
490 1.5% 7%  
491 1.0% 5%  
492 0.8% 4%  
493 1.0% 4%  
494 0.3% 3%  
495 0.8% 2%  
496 0.4% 2%  
497 0.1% 1.2%  
498 0.3% 1.1%  
499 0.2% 0.8%  
500 0.2% 0.5%  
501 0% 0.3%  
502 0% 0.3%  
503 0.1% 0.2%  
504 0% 0.2%  
505 0% 0.2%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0.1%  
510 0% 0.1%  
511 0% 0.1%  
512 0% 0.1%  
513 0% 0.1%  
514 0% 0.1%  
515 0% 0.1%  
516 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0% 99.9%  
433 0.1% 99.9%  
434 0.1% 99.8%  
435 0.1% 99.7%  
436 0.1% 99.6%  
437 0.2% 99.5%  
438 0.3% 99.2%  
439 0.3% 98.9%  
440 0.9% 98.7%  
441 0.4% 98%  
442 1.1% 97%  
443 0.7% 96%  
444 2% 96%  
445 1.2% 94%  
446 3% 93%  
447 3% 90%  
448 4% 87%  
449 3% 83%  
450 5% 80%  
451 5% 75%  
452 7% 70%  
453 7% 63%  
454 4% 56%  
455 9% 53% Median
456 8% 43%  
457 3% 35%  
458 6% 32%  
459 3% 26%  
460 4% 23%  
461 3% 19%  
462 3% 16%  
463 2% 13%  
464 2% 11%  
465 2% 9%  
466 0.7% 7%  
467 2% 7%  
468 0.7% 5%  
469 0.6% 5%  
470 0.9% 4%  
471 0.6% 3%  
472 0.3% 2%  
473 0.5% 2%  
474 0.6% 2%  
475 0.1% 1.0%  
476 0.2% 0.9%  
477 0.1% 0.7%  
478 0.1% 0.5%  
479 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.2%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0.1%  
496 0% 0.1%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.9%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.7%  
393 0.2% 99.6%  
394 0.1% 99.5%  
395 0.3% 99.3%  
396 0.3% 99.0%  
397 0.3% 98.7%  
398 0.8% 98%  
399 0.7% 98%  
400 0.8% 97%  
401 2% 96%  
402 2% 94%  
403 3% 92%  
404 2% 89%  
405 6% 88%  
406 4% 82%  
407 2% 77%  
408 7% 75%  
409 2% 68%  
410 5% 66%  
411 4% 61%  
412 3% 57% Median
413 5% 54%  
414 4% 49%  
415 3% 46%  
416 3% 43%  
417 6% 40%  
418 4% 34%  
419 5% 30%  
420 4% 25%  
421 4% 21%  
422 4% 17%  
423 2% 13%  
424 3% 10%  
425 1.5% 8%  
426 2% 6%  
427 0.9% 4%  
428 0.5% 4%  
429 0.9% 3%  
430 0.3% 2%  
431 0.5% 2%  
432 0.2% 1.4%  
433 0.3% 1.1%  
434 0.2% 0.8%  
435 0.2% 0.6%  
436 0.1% 0.4%  
437 0.1% 0.3%  
438 0% 0.2%  
439 0% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0.1% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.8%  
354 0.1% 99.7%  
355 0.2% 99.6% Majority
356 0.1% 99.3%  
357 0.4% 99.2%  
358 0.5% 98.8%  
359 0.7% 98%  
360 0.8% 98%  
361 0.8% 97%  
362 2% 96%  
363 2% 94%  
364 2% 93%  
365 2% 91%  
366 1.2% 89%  
367 6% 88%  
368 3% 82%  
369 3% 79%  
370 3% 77%  
371 4% 74%  
372 4% 70%  
373 6% 66%  
374 3% 59%  
375 5% 56%  
376 8% 52% Median
377 6% 43%  
378 3% 38%  
379 3% 35%  
380 3% 32%  
381 5% 29%  
382 4% 23%  
383 0.9% 19%  
384 4% 18%  
385 3% 14%  
386 3% 11%  
387 1.2% 8%  
388 0.9% 7%  
389 1.1% 6%  
390 1.4% 5%  
391 1.3% 3%  
392 0.3% 2%  
393 0.3% 2% Last Result
394 0.6% 2%  
395 0.2% 1.0%  
396 0.2% 0.8%  
397 0.1% 0.6%  
398 0.2% 0.5%  
399 0.1% 0.3%  
400 0.1% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.7%  
346 0.1% 99.7%  
347 0.1% 99.5%  
348 0.3% 99.4%  
349 0.2% 99.1%  
350 0.4% 98.9%  
351 0.4% 98%  
352 1.1% 98%  
353 0.4% 97%  
354 1.1% 97%  
355 2% 95% Majority
356 1.2% 94%  
357 2% 92%  
358 3% 90%  
359 3% 88%  
360 7% 85%  
361 2% 78%  
362 4% 76%  
363 6% 73%  
364 5% 67%  
365 3% 61% Median
366 6% 58%  
367 3% 52%  
368 8% 48%  
369 3% 40%  
370 3% 37%  
371 6% 34%  
372 4% 28%  
373 2% 24%  
374 3% 21%  
375 2% 18%  
376 2% 15%  
377 3% 13%  
378 1.5% 10%  
379 2% 8%  
380 2% 7%  
381 1.0% 5%  
382 0.9% 4%  
383 0.7% 3%  
384 0.5% 2%  
385 0.4% 2%  
386 0.4% 1.3%  
387 0.2% 0.9%  
388 0.2% 0.7%  
389 0.2% 0.5%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.3%  
392 0.1% 0.2%  
393 0.1% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.8%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.6%  
339 0.1% 99.6%  
340 0.1% 99.5%  
341 0.1% 99.4%  
342 0.2% 99.3%  
343 0.2% 99.1%  
344 0.4% 98.9%  
345 0.7% 98.5%  
346 0.5% 98%  
347 0.9% 97%  
348 2% 96%  
349 2% 94%  
350 4% 93%  
351 3% 89%  
352 5% 86%  
353 5% 81%  
354 7% 75%  
355 5% 69% Majority
356 5% 63%  
357 10% 58%  
358 4% 48% Median
359 7% 43%  
360 5% 36%  
361 4% 31%  
362 5% 27%  
363 3% 22%  
364 3% 20%  
365 2% 17%  
366 2% 15%  
367 2% 13%  
368 0.8% 12%  
369 1.4% 11%  
370 1.0% 9%  
371 1.2% 8%  
372 0.8% 7%  
373 1.4% 6%  
374 0.5% 5%  
375 2% 5%  
376 0.6% 3%  
377 0.8% 3%  
378 0.3% 2%  
379 0.3% 1.4%  
380 0.3% 1.1%  
381 0.2% 0.8%  
382 0.2% 0.6%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
315 0% 100%  
316 0.1% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.1% 99.7%  
320 0.2% 99.7%  
321 0.2% 99.5%  
322 0.2% 99.3%  
323 0.4% 99.1%  
324 0.4% 98.7%  
325 0.5% 98%  
326 0.7% 98%  
327 0.9% 97%  
328 1.0% 96%  
329 2% 95%  
330 2% 93%  
331 1.5% 92%  
332 3% 90%  
333 2% 87%  
334 2% 85%  
335 3% 82%  
336 2% 79%  
337 4% 76%  
338 6% 72%  
339 3% 66%  
340 3% 63%  
341 8% 60%  
342 3% 52%  
343 6% 48% Median
344 3% 42%  
345 5% 39%  
346 6% 33%  
347 4% 27%  
348 2% 24%  
349 7% 22%  
350 3% 15%  
351 3% 12%  
352 2% 10%  
353 1.2% 8%  
354 2% 6%  
355 1.1% 5% Majority
356 0.4% 3%  
357 1.1% 3%  
358 0.4% 2%  
359 0.4% 2%  
360 0.2% 1.1%  
361 0.3% 0.9%  
362 0.1% 0.6%  
363 0.1% 0.5%  
364 0.1% 0.3%  
365 0% 0.3%  
366 0.1% 0.2%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.2% 99.6%  
299 0.3% 99.4%  
300 0.4% 99.1%  
301 0.3% 98.7%  
302 0.6% 98%  
303 0.7% 98%  
304 1.2% 97%  
305 1.4% 96%  
306 2% 94%  
307 2% 93%  
308 3% 91%  
309 5% 88%  
310 2% 83%  
311 5% 81%  
312 3% 77%  
313 10% 73%  
314 6% 64%  
315 3% 58% Median
316 8% 55%  
317 5% 47%  
318 4% 42%  
319 4% 38%  
320 4% 34%  
321 3% 30%  
322 5% 27%  
323 2% 22%  
324 4% 20%  
325 2% 16%  
326 2% 14%  
327 2% 12%  
328 2% 10%  
329 1.1% 8%  
330 1.3% 7%  
331 1.0% 5%  
332 1.0% 4%  
333 0.5% 3%  
334 0.5% 3%  
335 0.7% 2%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.3% 1.2%  
338 0.2% 0.9%  
339 0.2% 0.7%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100% Last Result
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.2% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.6%  
276 0.2% 99.5%  
277 0.3% 99.3%  
278 0.7% 99.0%  
279 0.6% 98%  
280 0.8% 98%  
281 1.0% 97%  
282 1.2% 96%  
283 0.6% 95%  
284 3% 94%  
285 3% 91%  
286 4% 87%  
287 3% 84%  
288 4% 80%  
289 3% 77%  
290 3% 74%  
291 4% 71%  
292 8% 67%  
293 5% 59%  
294 7% 55% Median
295 4% 48%  
296 2% 44%  
297 3% 42%  
298 4% 38%  
299 6% 34%  
300 6% 28%  
301 2% 22%  
302 5% 20%  
303 2% 14%  
304 2% 13%  
305 2% 11%  
306 2% 10%  
307 2% 7%  
308 1.2% 5%  
309 1.1% 4%  
310 0.7% 3%  
311 0.3% 2%  
312 0.6% 2%  
313 0.3% 1.5%  
314 0.3% 1.1%  
315 0.2% 0.8%  
316 0.2% 0.6%  
317 0.1% 0.5%  
318 0.1% 0.4%  
319 0% 0.3%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.9%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.8%  
259 0.1% 99.7%  
260 0.2% 99.5%  
261 0.3% 99.3%  
262 0.3% 99.0%  
263 0.6% 98.7%  
264 0.8% 98%  
265 2% 97%  
266 0.9% 95%  
267 2% 94%  
268 2% 92%  
269 2% 90%  
270 2% 88%  
271 4% 86%  
272 6% 82%  
273 3% 76%  
274 4% 74%  
275 4% 70%  
276 5% 66%  
277 4% 62%  
278 4% 58%  
279 8% 54% Median
280 4% 46%  
281 5% 41%  
282 5% 37%  
283 3% 31%  
284 3% 28%  
285 3% 25%  
286 4% 23%  
287 2% 19%  
288 4% 17%  
289 3% 13%  
290 3% 10%  
291 2% 8%  
292 1.3% 6%  
293 1.2% 5%  
294 0.5% 4%  
295 0.9% 3%  
296 0.8% 2%  
297 0.3% 1.3%  
298 0.2% 1.1%  
299 0.3% 0.8%  
300 0.1% 0.6%  
301 0.1% 0.4%  
302 0.1% 0.3%  
303 0% 0.2%  
304 0.1% 0.2%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0.1% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0.1% 99.7%  
237 0.1% 99.6%  
238 0.3% 99.5%  
239 0.3% 99.1%  
240 0.3% 98.8%  
241 0.7% 98.5%  
242 0.7% 98%  
243 1.4% 97%  
244 2% 96%  
245 2% 94%  
246 1.4% 92%  
247 1.0% 90%  
248 4% 89%  
249 3% 86%  
250 4% 83%  
251 3% 79%  
252 2% 76%  
253 7% 74%  
254 6% 67%  
255 4% 60%  
256 5% 56%  
257 4% 51%  
258 6% 47% Median
259 4% 41%  
260 7% 37%  
261 4% 30%  
262 3% 26%  
263 3% 23%  
264 3% 20%  
265 5% 17%  
266 3% 13%  
267 2% 10%  
268 1.2% 8%  
269 2% 7%  
270 1.3% 5%  
271 1.3% 4%  
272 0.5% 3%  
273 0.5% 2%  
274 0.4% 2%  
275 0.3% 1.2%  
276 0.3% 0.9%  
277 0.1% 0.6%  
278 0.1% 0.4%  
279 0.1% 0.3%  
280 0.1% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9% Last Result
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.8%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0.1% 99.6%  
229 0.1% 99.5%  
230 0.2% 99.4%  
231 0.3% 99.2%  
232 0.5% 98.9%  
233 0.9% 98%  
234 0.7% 97%  
235 1.4% 97%  
236 1.3% 95%  
237 0.9% 94%  
238 2% 93%  
239 4% 91%  
240 2% 87%  
241 2% 85%  
242 5% 83%  
243 4% 78%  
244 6% 74%  
245 6% 68%  
246 3% 62%  
247 4% 59% Median
248 7% 55%  
249 3% 48%  
250 6% 45%  
251 5% 39%  
252 4% 34%  
253 4% 30%  
254 5% 26%  
255 3% 21%  
256 4% 18%  
257 2% 15%  
258 3% 13%  
259 2% 10%  
260 2% 7%  
261 1.0% 6%  
262 2% 5%  
263 0.5% 3%  
264 1.0% 3%  
265 0.5% 2%  
266 0.3% 1.4%  
267 0.3% 1.1%  
268 0.2% 0.8%  
269 0.2% 0.6%  
270 0.1% 0.4%  
271 0.1% 0.3%  
272 0.1% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.8%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 0.2% 99.7%  
226 0.2% 99.5%  
227 0.2% 99.4%  
228 0.6% 99.1%  
229 0.4% 98.5%  
230 0.7% 98%  
231 0.8% 98%  
232 1.5% 97%  
233 2% 95%  
234 3% 94%  
235 1.5% 90%  
236 1.4% 89%  
237 6% 88%  
238 2% 82%  
239 2% 80%  
240 9% 78%  
241 2% 69%  
242 4% 66%  
243 4% 62%  
244 4% 58%  
245 3% 54%  
246 7% 50% Median
247 5% 44%  
248 2% 39%  
249 6% 36%  
250 3% 31%  
251 4% 27%  
252 5% 24%  
253 4% 18%  
254 2% 14%  
255 5% 13%  
256 1.1% 8%  
257 1.0% 7%  
258 1.0% 6%  
259 2% 5%  
260 0.4% 3%  
261 0.7% 2%  
262 0.5% 2%  
263 0.2% 1.2%  
264 0.4% 1.0%  
265 0.2% 0.6%  
266 0.1% 0.4%  
267 0.1% 0.3%  
268 0.1% 0.2%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations