Opinion Poll by Forsa, 7–13 September 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands |
20.5% |
25.0% |
23.7–26.3% |
23.4–26.7% |
23.1–27.0% |
22.5–27.7% |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands |
26.8% |
17.1% |
16.0–18.2% |
15.7–18.5% |
15.4–18.8% |
14.9–19.4% |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen |
8.9% |
17.0% |
15.9–18.2% |
15.6–18.5% |
15.4–18.8% |
14.9–19.3% |
Alternative für Deutschland |
12.6% |
11.0% |
10.1–12.0% |
9.8–12.2% |
9.6–12.5% |
9.2–13.0% |
Freie Demokratische Partei |
10.7% |
11.0% |
10.1–12.0% |
9.8–12.2% |
9.6–12.5% |
9.2–13.0% |
Die Linke |
9.2% |
6.0% |
5.4–6.8% |
5.2–7.0% |
5.0–7.2% |
4.7–7.6% |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
6.2% |
3.9% |
3.4–4.6% |
3.3–4.8% |
3.2–4.9% |
2.9–5.3% |
Freie Wähler |
0.0% |
3.0% |
2.5–3.6% |
2.4–3.7% |
2.3–3.9% |
2.1–4.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
153 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
154 |
0% |
100% |
|
155 |
0% |
100% |
|
156 |
0% |
100% |
|
157 |
0% |
100% |
|
158 |
0% |
100% |
|
159 |
0% |
100% |
|
160 |
0% |
100% |
|
161 |
0% |
100% |
|
162 |
0% |
100% |
|
163 |
0% |
100% |
|
164 |
0% |
100% |
|
165 |
0% |
100% |
|
166 |
0% |
100% |
|
167 |
0% |
100% |
|
168 |
0% |
100% |
|
169 |
0% |
100% |
|
170 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
171 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
172 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
173 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
174 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
175 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
176 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
177 |
0.6% |
99.0% |
|
178 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
179 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
180 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
181 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
182 |
1.0% |
95% |
|
183 |
2% |
94% |
|
184 |
4% |
92% |
|
185 |
2% |
89% |
|
186 |
3% |
86% |
|
187 |
3% |
84% |
|
188 |
3% |
81% |
|
189 |
8% |
78% |
|
190 |
5% |
70% |
|
191 |
3% |
65% |
|
192 |
7% |
62% |
|
193 |
3% |
55% |
|
194 |
3% |
52% |
Median |
195 |
2% |
48% |
|
196 |
7% |
46% |
|
197 |
4% |
39% |
|
198 |
7% |
35% |
|
199 |
7% |
28% |
|
200 |
2% |
22% |
|
201 |
1.5% |
19% |
|
202 |
4% |
18% |
|
203 |
2% |
14% |
|
204 |
2% |
12% |
|
205 |
2% |
10% |
|
206 |
2% |
8% |
|
207 |
0.8% |
6% |
|
208 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
209 |
1.5% |
4% |
|
210 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
211 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
212 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
213 |
0.3% |
1.3% |
|
214 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
215 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
216 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
217 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
218 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
219 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
220 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
221 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
222 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
223 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
224 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
111 |
0% |
100% |
|
112 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
113 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
114 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
115 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
116 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
117 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
118 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
|
119 |
0.8% |
98.7% |
|
120 |
2% |
98% |
|
121 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
122 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
123 |
2% |
94% |
|
124 |
4% |
92% |
|
125 |
6% |
88% |
|
126 |
4% |
82% |
|
127 |
3% |
78% |
|
128 |
5% |
75% |
|
129 |
6% |
70% |
|
130 |
8% |
64% |
|
131 |
6% |
56% |
|
132 |
2% |
50% |
Median |
133 |
4% |
48% |
|
134 |
4% |
44% |
|
135 |
8% |
40% |
|
136 |
7% |
32% |
|
137 |
4% |
25% |
|
138 |
3% |
21% |
|
139 |
2% |
18% |
|
140 |
3% |
16% |
|
141 |
4% |
13% |
|
142 |
3% |
9% |
|
143 |
1.0% |
7% |
|
144 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
145 |
2% |
5% |
|
146 |
1.1% |
3% |
|
147 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
148 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
149 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
150 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
151 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
152 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
153 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
154 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
155 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
157 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
158 |
0% |
0% |
|
159 |
0% |
0% |
|
160 |
0% |
0% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
|
170 |
0% |
0% |
|
171 |
0% |
0% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
174 |
0% |
0% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
176 |
0% |
0% |
|
177 |
0% |
0% |
|
178 |
0% |
0% |
|
179 |
0% |
0% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
181 |
0% |
0% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
|
183 |
0% |
0% |
|
184 |
0% |
0% |
|
185 |
0% |
0% |
|
186 |
0% |
0% |
|
187 |
0% |
0% |
|
188 |
0% |
0% |
|
189 |
0% |
0% |
|
190 |
0% |
0% |
|
191 |
0% |
0% |
|
192 |
0% |
0% |
|
193 |
0% |
0% |
|
194 |
0% |
0% |
|
195 |
0% |
0% |
|
196 |
0% |
0% |
|
197 |
0% |
0% |
|
198 |
0% |
0% |
|
199 |
0% |
0% |
|
200 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0% |
100% |
|
70 |
0% |
100% |
|
71 |
0% |
100% |
|
72 |
0% |
100% |
|
73 |
0% |
100% |
|
74 |
0% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
100% |
|
76 |
0% |
100% |
|
77 |
0% |
100% |
|
78 |
0% |
100% |
|
79 |
0% |
100% |
|
80 |
0% |
100% |
|
81 |
0% |
100% |
|
82 |
0% |
100% |
|
83 |
0% |
100% |
|
84 |
0% |
100% |
|
85 |
0% |
100% |
|
86 |
0% |
100% |
|
87 |
0% |
100% |
|
88 |
0% |
100% |
|
89 |
0% |
100% |
|
90 |
0% |
100% |
|
91 |
0% |
100% |
|
92 |
0% |
100% |
|
93 |
0% |
100% |
|
94 |
0% |
100% |
|
95 |
0% |
100% |
|
96 |
0% |
100% |
|
97 |
0% |
100% |
|
98 |
0% |
100% |
|
99 |
0% |
100% |
|
100 |
0% |
100% |
|
101 |
0% |
100% |
|
102 |
0% |
100% |
|
103 |
0% |
100% |
|
104 |
0% |
100% |
|
105 |
0% |
100% |
|
106 |
0% |
100% |
|
107 |
0% |
100% |
|
108 |
0% |
100% |
|
109 |
0% |
100% |
|
110 |
0% |
100% |
|
111 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
112 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
113 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
114 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
115 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
116 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
117 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
118 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
119 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
120 |
2% |
98% |
|
121 |
2% |
96% |
|
122 |
2% |
94% |
|
123 |
2% |
92% |
|
124 |
2% |
89% |
|
125 |
2% |
88% |
|
126 |
4% |
86% |
|
127 |
6% |
82% |
|
128 |
7% |
76% |
|
129 |
9% |
69% |
|
130 |
3% |
60% |
|
131 |
2% |
57% |
|
132 |
5% |
55% |
Median |
133 |
10% |
50% |
|
134 |
10% |
40% |
|
135 |
5% |
29% |
|
136 |
2% |
25% |
|
137 |
2% |
22% |
|
138 |
2% |
20% |
|
139 |
5% |
18% |
|
140 |
4% |
13% |
|
141 |
2% |
10% |
|
142 |
1.4% |
7% |
|
143 |
1.2% |
6% |
|
144 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
145 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
146 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
147 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
148 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
149 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
150 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
152 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
153 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
154 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
155 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
157 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
158 |
0% |
0% |
|
Alternative für Deutschland
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
71 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
72 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
73 |
0.7% |
99.3% |
|
74 |
0.7% |
98.6% |
|
75 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
76 |
2% |
97% |
|
77 |
2% |
95% |
|
78 |
3% |
92% |
|
79 |
3% |
90% |
|
80 |
4% |
87% |
|
81 |
8% |
83% |
|
82 |
7% |
75% |
|
83 |
8% |
68% |
|
84 |
7% |
60% |
|
85 |
8% |
54% |
Median |
86 |
6% |
46% |
|
87 |
8% |
40% |
|
88 |
7% |
32% |
|
89 |
5% |
25% |
|
90 |
4% |
21% |
|
91 |
3% |
16% |
|
92 |
3% |
13% |
|
93 |
3% |
10% |
|
94 |
2% |
7% |
Last Result |
95 |
1.3% |
5% |
|
96 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
97 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
98 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
99 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
100 |
0.4% |
1.1% |
|
101 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
102 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
103 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
104 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
105 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Demokratische Partei
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
70 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
71 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
72 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
73 |
0.4% |
99.3% |
|
74 |
0.8% |
98.9% |
|
75 |
2% |
98% |
|
76 |
2% |
97% |
|
77 |
4% |
95% |
|
78 |
2% |
91% |
|
79 |
4% |
89% |
|
80 |
4% |
85% |
Last Result |
81 |
4% |
81% |
|
82 |
6% |
77% |
|
83 |
6% |
71% |
|
84 |
7% |
65% |
|
85 |
8% |
58% |
Median |
86 |
9% |
50% |
|
87 |
8% |
41% |
|
88 |
7% |
33% |
|
89 |
5% |
26% |
|
90 |
4% |
21% |
|
91 |
4% |
16% |
|
92 |
3% |
12% |
|
93 |
2% |
9% |
|
94 |
2% |
8% |
|
95 |
2% |
6% |
|
96 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
97 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
98 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
99 |
0.4% |
1.3% |
|
100 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
101 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
102 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
103 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
104 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
105 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
106 |
0% |
0% |
|
Die Linke
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
2% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
98% |
|
2 |
0% |
98% |
|
3 |
0% |
98% |
|
4 |
0% |
98% |
|
5 |
0% |
98% |
|
6 |
0% |
98% |
|
7 |
0% |
98% |
|
8 |
0% |
98% |
|
9 |
0% |
98% |
|
10 |
0% |
98% |
|
11 |
0% |
98% |
|
12 |
0% |
98% |
|
13 |
0% |
98% |
|
14 |
0% |
98% |
|
15 |
0% |
98% |
|
16 |
0% |
98% |
|
17 |
0% |
98% |
|
18 |
0% |
98% |
|
19 |
0% |
98% |
|
20 |
0% |
98% |
|
21 |
0% |
98% |
|
22 |
0% |
98% |
|
23 |
0% |
98% |
|
24 |
0% |
98% |
|
25 |
0% |
98% |
|
26 |
0% |
98% |
|
27 |
0% |
98% |
|
28 |
0% |
98% |
|
29 |
0% |
98% |
|
30 |
0% |
98% |
|
31 |
0% |
98% |
|
32 |
0% |
98% |
|
33 |
0% |
98% |
|
34 |
0% |
98% |
|
35 |
0% |
98% |
|
36 |
0% |
98% |
|
37 |
0% |
98% |
|
38 |
0% |
98% |
|
39 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
40 |
2% |
96% |
|
41 |
4% |
94% |
|
42 |
5% |
90% |
|
43 |
6% |
85% |
|
44 |
8% |
79% |
|
45 |
8% |
72% |
|
46 |
9% |
64% |
|
47 |
13% |
55% |
Median |
48 |
6% |
41% |
|
49 |
8% |
35% |
|
50 |
6% |
27% |
|
51 |
8% |
21% |
|
52 |
2% |
14% |
|
53 |
5% |
11% |
|
54 |
2% |
6% |
|
55 |
2% |
5% |
|
56 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
57 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
58 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
59 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
61 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
62 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
67 |
0% |
0% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
1.0% |
99.6% |
|
27 |
1.1% |
98.6% |
|
28 |
3% |
98% |
|
29 |
4% |
95% |
|
30 |
8% |
91% |
|
31 |
11% |
83% |
|
32 |
6% |
73% |
|
33 |
13% |
67% |
|
34 |
10% |
54% |
Median |
35 |
9% |
44% |
|
36 |
14% |
35% |
|
37 |
4% |
20% |
|
38 |
7% |
16% |
|
39 |
3% |
9% |
|
40 |
2% |
6% |
|
41 |
2% |
4% |
|
42 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
43 |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|
44 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
45 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
46 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
47 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
Freie Wähler
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
466 |
492 |
100% |
481–502 |
479–506 |
476–514 |
471–533 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
479 |
446 |
100% |
434–457 |
431–461 |
429–467 |
424–485 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei |
300 |
412 |
100% |
400–421 |
396–427 |
393–433 |
389–445 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
393 |
383 |
100% |
372–395 |
369–399 |
368–405 |
361–417 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke |
289 |
373 |
96% |
360–383 |
356–386 |
352–388 |
343–394 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
399 |
360 |
74% |
349–372 |
345–375 |
343–381 |
338–393 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
420 |
336 |
4% |
326–349 |
323–353 |
321–357 |
315–366 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen |
220 |
326 |
0.4% |
315–337 |
311–341 |
309–346 |
303–354 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
313 |
298 |
0% |
287–310 |
284–314 |
281–317 |
276–326 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei |
233 |
280 |
0% |
268–290 |
265–294 |
262–298 |
258–309 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
340 |
250 |
0% |
243–264 |
239–267 |
235–270 |
230–275 |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern |
326 |
251 |
0% |
240–262 |
239–267 |
237–269 |
231–276 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke |
222 |
241 |
0% |
229–252 |
225–254 |
219–256 |
201–261 |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
465 |
0% |
100% |
|
466 |
0% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
467 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
468 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
469 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
470 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
471 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
472 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
473 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
474 |
0.6% |
98.7% |
|
475 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
476 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
477 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
478 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
479 |
2% |
95% |
|
480 |
2% |
93% |
|
481 |
2% |
92% |
|
482 |
3% |
90% |
|
483 |
2% |
87% |
|
484 |
2% |
85% |
|
485 |
4% |
83% |
|
486 |
4% |
79% |
|
487 |
5% |
75% |
|
488 |
3% |
70% |
|
489 |
4% |
66% |
|
490 |
4% |
62% |
|
491 |
4% |
58% |
|
492 |
5% |
54% |
Median |
493 |
6% |
49% |
|
494 |
10% |
43% |
|
495 |
2% |
33% |
|
496 |
5% |
31% |
|
497 |
3% |
26% |
|
498 |
2% |
23% |
|
499 |
3% |
21% |
|
500 |
2% |
18% |
|
501 |
5% |
16% |
|
502 |
2% |
11% |
|
503 |
2% |
9% |
|
504 |
0.9% |
7% |
|
505 |
1.0% |
6% |
|
506 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
507 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
508 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
509 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
510 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
511 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
512 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
513 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
514 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
515 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
516 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
517 |
0% |
2% |
|
518 |
0% |
2% |
|
519 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
520 |
0% |
2% |
|
521 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
522 |
0% |
2% |
|
523 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
524 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
525 |
0% |
2% |
|
526 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
527 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
528 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
529 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
530 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
531 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
532 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
533 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
534 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
535 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
536 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
537 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
538 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
539 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
540 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
541 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
542 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
417 |
0% |
100% |
|
418 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
419 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
420 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
421 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
422 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
423 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
424 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
425 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
426 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
427 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
428 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
429 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
430 |
2% |
97% |
|
431 |
1.4% |
96% |
|
432 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
433 |
2% |
93% |
|
434 |
2% |
91% |
|
435 |
2% |
89% |
|
436 |
2% |
87% |
|
437 |
3% |
85% |
|
438 |
3% |
82% |
|
439 |
4% |
79% |
|
440 |
3% |
74% |
|
441 |
2% |
71% |
|
442 |
5% |
69% |
|
443 |
4% |
64% |
|
444 |
5% |
61% |
|
445 |
4% |
56% |
Median |
446 |
5% |
52% |
|
447 |
4% |
46% |
|
448 |
9% |
43% |
|
449 |
3% |
33% |
|
450 |
6% |
31% |
|
451 |
1.5% |
24% |
|
452 |
5% |
23% |
|
453 |
2% |
18% |
|
454 |
2% |
16% |
|
455 |
2% |
14% |
|
456 |
2% |
12% |
|
457 |
2% |
10% |
|
458 |
1.1% |
8% |
|
459 |
1.1% |
7% |
|
460 |
0.4% |
6% |
|
461 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
462 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
463 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
464 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
465 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
466 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
467 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
468 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
469 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
470 |
0% |
2% |
|
471 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
472 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
473 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
474 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
475 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
476 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
477 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
478 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
479 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
480 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
481 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
482 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
483 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
484 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
485 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
486 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
487 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
488 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
489 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
490 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
491 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
492 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
493 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
494 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
495 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
300 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
|
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0% |
100% |
|
334 |
0% |
100% |
|
335 |
0% |
100% |
|
336 |
0% |
100% |
|
337 |
0% |
100% |
|
338 |
0% |
100% |
|
339 |
0% |
100% |
|
340 |
0% |
100% |
|
341 |
0% |
100% |
|
342 |
0% |
100% |
|
343 |
0% |
100% |
|
344 |
0% |
100% |
|
345 |
0% |
100% |
|
346 |
0% |
100% |
|
347 |
0% |
100% |
|
348 |
0% |
100% |
|
349 |
0% |
100% |
|
350 |
0% |
100% |
|
351 |
0% |
100% |
|
352 |
0% |
100% |
|
353 |
0% |
100% |
|
354 |
0% |
100% |
|
355 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
356 |
0% |
100% |
|
357 |
0% |
100% |
|
358 |
0% |
100% |
|
359 |
0% |
100% |
|
360 |
0% |
100% |
|
361 |
0% |
100% |
|
362 |
0% |
100% |
|
363 |
0% |
100% |
|
364 |
0% |
100% |
|
365 |
0% |
100% |
|
366 |
0% |
100% |
|
367 |
0% |
100% |
|
368 |
0% |
100% |
|
369 |
0% |
100% |
|
370 |
0% |
100% |
|
371 |
0% |
100% |
|
372 |
0% |
100% |
|
373 |
0% |
100% |
|
374 |
0% |
100% |
|
375 |
0% |
100% |
|
376 |
0% |
100% |
|
377 |
0% |
100% |
|
378 |
0% |
100% |
|
379 |
0% |
100% |
|
380 |
0% |
100% |
|
381 |
0% |
100% |
|
382 |
0% |
100% |
|
383 |
0% |
100% |
|
384 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
385 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
386 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
387 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
388 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
389 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
390 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
391 |
0.4% |
99.2% |
|
392 |
0.9% |
98.8% |
|
393 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
394 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
395 |
1.1% |
96% |
|
396 |
1.2% |
95% |
|
397 |
2% |
94% |
|
398 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
399 |
2% |
92% |
|
400 |
2% |
90% |
|
401 |
2% |
88% |
|
402 |
1.3% |
87% |
|
403 |
2% |
85% |
|
404 |
2% |
84% |
|
405 |
3% |
81% |
|
406 |
2% |
79% |
|
407 |
3% |
76% |
|
408 |
2% |
73% |
|
409 |
8% |
71% |
|
410 |
6% |
63% |
|
411 |
6% |
57% |
Median |
412 |
8% |
52% |
|
413 |
6% |
44% |
|
414 |
8% |
38% |
|
415 |
6% |
30% |
|
416 |
2% |
24% |
|
417 |
4% |
22% |
|
418 |
4% |
18% |
|
419 |
2% |
15% |
|
420 |
2% |
13% |
|
421 |
1.1% |
11% |
|
422 |
1.2% |
10% |
|
423 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
424 |
1.1% |
8% |
|
425 |
1.0% |
7% |
|
426 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
427 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
428 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
429 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
430 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
431 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
432 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
433 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
434 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
435 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
436 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
437 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
438 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
439 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
440 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
441 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
442 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
443 |
0.6% |
1.3% |
|
444 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
445 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
446 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
447 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
448 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
449 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
450 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
451 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
452 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
453 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
454 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
455 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
456 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
457 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
458 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
459 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
355 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
356 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
357 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
358 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
359 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
360 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
361 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
362 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
363 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
364 |
0.2% |
99.0% |
|
365 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
366 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
|
367 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
368 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
369 |
2% |
97% |
|
370 |
1.2% |
95% |
|
371 |
2% |
94% |
|
372 |
2% |
91% |
|
373 |
3% |
89% |
|
374 |
5% |
86% |
|
375 |
4% |
81% |
|
376 |
2% |
77% |
|
377 |
3% |
75% |
|
378 |
3% |
72% |
|
379 |
4% |
69% |
|
380 |
6% |
65% |
|
381 |
4% |
59% |
|
382 |
5% |
55% |
|
383 |
3% |
50% |
Median |
384 |
3% |
47% |
|
385 |
4% |
44% |
|
386 |
2% |
40% |
|
387 |
5% |
38% |
|
388 |
2% |
33% |
|
389 |
3% |
31% |
|
390 |
4% |
28% |
|
391 |
1.3% |
24% |
|
392 |
8% |
23% |
|
393 |
3% |
15% |
Last Result |
394 |
2% |
12% |
|
395 |
1.5% |
10% |
|
396 |
1.5% |
9% |
|
397 |
0.9% |
7% |
|
398 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
399 |
1.2% |
6% |
|
400 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
401 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
402 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
403 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
404 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
405 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
406 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
407 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
408 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
409 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
410 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
411 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
412 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
413 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
414 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
415 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
416 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
417 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
418 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
419 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
420 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
421 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
422 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
423 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
424 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
425 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
426 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
427 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
428 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
289 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
100% |
|
300 |
0% |
100% |
|
301 |
0% |
100% |
|
302 |
0% |
100% |
|
303 |
0% |
100% |
|
304 |
0% |
100% |
|
305 |
0% |
100% |
|
306 |
0% |
100% |
|
307 |
0% |
100% |
|
308 |
0% |
100% |
|
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
100% |
|
311 |
0% |
100% |
|
312 |
0% |
100% |
|
313 |
0% |
100% |
|
314 |
0% |
100% |
|
315 |
0% |
100% |
|
316 |
0% |
100% |
|
317 |
0% |
100% |
|
318 |
0% |
100% |
|
319 |
0% |
100% |
|
320 |
0% |
100% |
|
321 |
0% |
100% |
|
322 |
0% |
100% |
|
323 |
0% |
100% |
|
324 |
0% |
100% |
|
325 |
0% |
100% |
|
326 |
0% |
100% |
|
327 |
0% |
100% |
|
328 |
0% |
100% |
|
329 |
0% |
100% |
|
330 |
0% |
100% |
|
331 |
0% |
100% |
|
332 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
333 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
334 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
335 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
336 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
337 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
338 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
340 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
341 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
342 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
343 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
344 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
345 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
346 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
347 |
0% |
99.2% |
|
348 |
0.3% |
99.1% |
|
349 |
0.2% |
98.8% |
|
350 |
0.7% |
98.7% |
|
351 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
352 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
353 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
354 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
355 |
0.6% |
96% |
Majority |
356 |
0.7% |
95% |
|
357 |
0.7% |
95% |
|
358 |
1.1% |
94% |
|
359 |
2% |
93% |
|
360 |
1.5% |
91% |
|
361 |
1.4% |
90% |
|
362 |
2% |
88% |
|
363 |
1.5% |
86% |
|
364 |
2% |
85% |
|
365 |
3% |
82% |
|
366 |
3% |
79% |
|
367 |
2% |
76% |
|
368 |
3% |
74% |
|
369 |
8% |
71% |
|
370 |
3% |
64% |
|
371 |
4% |
60% |
|
372 |
3% |
56% |
|
373 |
7% |
54% |
Median |
374 |
3% |
47% |
|
375 |
8% |
43% |
|
376 |
5% |
35% |
|
377 |
4% |
30% |
|
378 |
1.5% |
26% |
|
379 |
4% |
25% |
|
380 |
4% |
21% |
|
381 |
3% |
17% |
|
382 |
3% |
14% |
|
383 |
3% |
11% |
|
384 |
0.6% |
8% |
|
385 |
2% |
7% |
|
386 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
387 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
388 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
389 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
390 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
391 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
392 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
393 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
394 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
395 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
396 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
397 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
398 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
399 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
400 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
401 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
332 |
0% |
100% |
|
333 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
334 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
335 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
336 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
337 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
338 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
339 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
340 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
341 |
0.5% |
98.7% |
|
342 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
343 |
1.2% |
98% |
|
344 |
0.9% |
97% |
|
345 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
346 |
1.1% |
95% |
|
347 |
2% |
94% |
|
348 |
1.0% |
92% |
|
349 |
2% |
91% |
|
350 |
3% |
89% |
|
351 |
2% |
86% |
|
352 |
2% |
84% |
|
353 |
2% |
82% |
|
354 |
5% |
79% |
|
355 |
2% |
74% |
Majority |
356 |
4% |
72% |
|
357 |
4% |
67% |
|
358 |
5% |
64% |
|
359 |
3% |
59% |
|
360 |
7% |
56% |
Median |
361 |
8% |
49% |
|
362 |
3% |
41% |
|
363 |
3% |
38% |
|
364 |
6% |
35% |
|
365 |
4% |
30% |
|
366 |
4% |
26% |
|
367 |
4% |
22% |
|
368 |
2% |
18% |
|
369 |
2% |
16% |
|
370 |
1.2% |
14% |
|
371 |
2% |
13% |
|
372 |
3% |
11% |
|
373 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
374 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
375 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
376 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
377 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
378 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
379 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
380 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
381 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
382 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
383 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
384 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
385 |
0.2% |
1.4% |
|
386 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
387 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
388 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
389 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
390 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
391 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
392 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
393 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
394 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
395 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
396 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
397 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
398 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
399 |
0% |
0.2% |
Last Result |
400 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
401 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
402 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
403 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
404 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
405 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
309 |
0% |
100% |
|
310 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
311 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
312 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
313 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
314 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
315 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
316 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
317 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
318 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
319 |
0.3% |
98.6% |
|
320 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
321 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
322 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
323 |
1.2% |
96% |
|
324 |
2% |
95% |
|
325 |
0.6% |
93% |
|
326 |
3% |
92% |
|
327 |
3% |
89% |
|
328 |
3% |
86% |
|
329 |
4% |
83% |
|
330 |
4% |
79% |
|
331 |
1.5% |
75% |
|
332 |
4% |
74% |
|
333 |
5% |
70% |
|
334 |
8% |
65% |
|
335 |
3% |
57% |
|
336 |
7% |
53% |
Median |
337 |
3% |
46% |
|
338 |
4% |
44% |
|
339 |
3% |
40% |
|
340 |
8% |
36% |
|
341 |
3% |
29% |
|
342 |
2% |
26% |
|
343 |
3% |
24% |
|
344 |
3% |
21% |
|
345 |
2% |
18% |
|
346 |
1.5% |
15% |
|
347 |
2% |
14% |
|
348 |
1.4% |
12% |
|
349 |
1.5% |
10% |
|
350 |
2% |
9% |
|
351 |
1.1% |
7% |
|
352 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
353 |
0.7% |
5% |
|
354 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
355 |
0.8% |
4% |
Majority |
356 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
357 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
358 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
359 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
360 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
361 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
362 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
363 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
364 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
365 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
366 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
367 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
368 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
369 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
370 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
371 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
372 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
373 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
374 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
375 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
376 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
377 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
378 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
379 |
0% |
0% |
|
380 |
0% |
0% |
|
381 |
0% |
0% |
|
382 |
0% |
0% |
|
383 |
0% |
0% |
|
384 |
0% |
0% |
|
385 |
0% |
0% |
|
386 |
0% |
0% |
|
387 |
0% |
0% |
|
388 |
0% |
0% |
|
389 |
0% |
0% |
|
390 |
0% |
0% |
|
391 |
0% |
0% |
|
392 |
0% |
0% |
|
393 |
0% |
0% |
|
394 |
0% |
0% |
|
395 |
0% |
0% |
|
396 |
0% |
0% |
|
397 |
0% |
0% |
|
398 |
0% |
0% |
|
399 |
0% |
0% |
|
400 |
0% |
0% |
|
401 |
0% |
0% |
|
402 |
0% |
0% |
|
403 |
0% |
0% |
|
404 |
0% |
0% |
|
405 |
0% |
0% |
|
406 |
0% |
0% |
|
407 |
0% |
0% |
|
408 |
0% |
0% |
|
409 |
0% |
0% |
|
410 |
0% |
0% |
|
411 |
0% |
0% |
|
412 |
0% |
0% |
|
413 |
0% |
0% |
|
414 |
0% |
0% |
|
415 |
0% |
0% |
|
416 |
0% |
0% |
|
417 |
0% |
0% |
|
418 |
0% |
0% |
|
419 |
0% |
0% |
|
420 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
220 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
221 |
0% |
100% |
|
222 |
0% |
100% |
|
223 |
0% |
100% |
|
224 |
0% |
100% |
|
225 |
0% |
100% |
|
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
100% |
|
228 |
0% |
100% |
|
229 |
0% |
100% |
|
230 |
0% |
100% |
|
231 |
0% |
100% |
|
232 |
0% |
100% |
|
233 |
0% |
100% |
|
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
100% |
|
269 |
0% |
100% |
|
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
100% |
|
272 |
0% |
100% |
|
273 |
0% |
100% |
|
274 |
0% |
100% |
|
275 |
0% |
100% |
|
276 |
0% |
100% |
|
277 |
0% |
100% |
|
278 |
0% |
100% |
|
279 |
0% |
100% |
|
280 |
0% |
100% |
|
281 |
0% |
100% |
|
282 |
0% |
100% |
|
283 |
0% |
100% |
|
284 |
0% |
100% |
|
285 |
0% |
100% |
|
286 |
0% |
100% |
|
287 |
0% |
100% |
|
288 |
0% |
100% |
|
289 |
0% |
100% |
|
290 |
0% |
100% |
|
291 |
0% |
100% |
|
292 |
0% |
100% |
|
293 |
0% |
100% |
|
294 |
0% |
100% |
|
295 |
0% |
100% |
|
296 |
0% |
100% |
|
297 |
0% |
100% |
|
298 |
0% |
100% |
|
299 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
300 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
301 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
302 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
303 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
304 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
305 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
306 |
0.2% |
98.9% |
|
307 |
0.5% |
98.7% |
|
308 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
309 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
310 |
2% |
97% |
|
311 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
312 |
1.3% |
95% |
|
313 |
2% |
94% |
|
314 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
315 |
3% |
91% |
|
316 |
1.3% |
88% |
|
317 |
3% |
87% |
|
318 |
3% |
84% |
|
319 |
2% |
81% |
|
320 |
4% |
79% |
|
321 |
2% |
76% |
|
322 |
8% |
73% |
|
323 |
4% |
66% |
|
324 |
3% |
62% |
|
325 |
6% |
59% |
|
326 |
5% |
53% |
Median |
327 |
5% |
47% |
|
328 |
7% |
43% |
|
329 |
1.1% |
36% |
|
330 |
7% |
35% |
|
331 |
4% |
28% |
|
332 |
1.5% |
24% |
|
333 |
6% |
23% |
|
334 |
2% |
17% |
|
335 |
3% |
15% |
|
336 |
2% |
12% |
|
337 |
2% |
11% |
|
338 |
2% |
9% |
|
339 |
0.6% |
7% |
|
340 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
341 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
342 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
343 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
344 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
345 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
346 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
347 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
348 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
349 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
350 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
351 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
352 |
0.5% |
1.1% |
|
353 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
354 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
355 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
Majority |
356 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
357 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
358 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
359 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
360 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
361 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
362 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
363 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
364 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
365 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
366 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
270 |
0% |
100% |
|
271 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
272 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
273 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
274 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
275 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
276 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
277 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
278 |
0.3% |
99.3% |
|
279 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
280 |
0.6% |
98.7% |
|
281 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
282 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
283 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
284 |
0.8% |
96% |
|
285 |
2% |
95% |
|
286 |
2% |
93% |
|
287 |
2% |
91% |
|
288 |
3% |
90% |
|
289 |
3% |
86% |
|
290 |
4% |
83% |
|
291 |
4% |
79% |
|
292 |
5% |
75% |
|
293 |
3% |
71% |
|
294 |
6% |
68% |
|
295 |
2% |
62% |
|
296 |
4% |
59% |
|
297 |
2% |
55% |
|
298 |
7% |
53% |
Median |
299 |
4% |
46% |
|
300 |
3% |
41% |
|
301 |
3% |
38% |
|
302 |
3% |
36% |
|
303 |
5% |
33% |
|
304 |
3% |
28% |
|
305 |
6% |
25% |
|
306 |
2% |
19% |
|
307 |
2% |
17% |
|
308 |
2% |
15% |
|
309 |
2% |
13% |
|
310 |
2% |
11% |
|
311 |
2% |
9% |
|
312 |
1.2% |
7% |
|
313 |
0.9% |
6% |
Last Result |
314 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
315 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
316 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
317 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
318 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
319 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
320 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
321 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
322 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
323 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
324 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
325 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
326 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
327 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
328 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
329 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
330 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
331 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
332 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
333 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
334 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
335 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
233 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
234 |
0% |
100% |
|
235 |
0% |
100% |
|
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
254 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
255 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
256 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
257 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
258 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
259 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
260 |
0.7% |
99.1% |
|
261 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
262 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
263 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
264 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
265 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
266 |
1.4% |
95% |
|
267 |
2% |
93% |
|
268 |
2% |
91% |
|
269 |
3% |
90% |
|
270 |
3% |
87% |
|
271 |
2% |
84% |
|
272 |
2% |
82% |
|
273 |
2% |
80% |
|
274 |
5% |
78% |
|
275 |
5% |
73% |
|
276 |
5% |
68% |
|
277 |
4% |
63% |
|
278 |
6% |
59% |
|
279 |
3% |
53% |
Median |
280 |
5% |
50% |
|
281 |
4% |
45% |
|
282 |
4% |
41% |
|
283 |
5% |
38% |
|
284 |
5% |
33% |
|
285 |
6% |
28% |
|
286 |
4% |
21% |
|
287 |
2% |
17% |
|
288 |
1.2% |
16% |
|
289 |
2% |
15% |
|
290 |
3% |
12% |
|
291 |
1.1% |
9% |
|
292 |
2% |
8% |
|
293 |
1.3% |
7% |
|
294 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
295 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
296 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
297 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
298 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
299 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
300 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
301 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
302 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
303 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
304 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
305 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
306 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
307 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
308 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
309 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
310 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
311 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
312 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
313 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
314 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
315 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
316 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
228 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
229 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
230 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
231 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
232 |
0.6% |
99.1% |
|
233 |
0.4% |
98.6% |
|
234 |
0.6% |
98% |
|
235 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
236 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
237 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
238 |
0.5% |
96% |
|
239 |
1.3% |
95% |
|
240 |
0.7% |
94% |
|
241 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
242 |
1.0% |
93% |
|
243 |
3% |
92% |
|
244 |
3% |
89% |
|
245 |
4% |
86% |
|
246 |
5% |
82% |
|
247 |
8% |
78% |
|
248 |
6% |
69% |
|
249 |
6% |
63% |
|
250 |
10% |
57% |
|
251 |
4% |
47% |
Median |
252 |
5% |
42% |
|
253 |
7% |
38% |
|
254 |
4% |
31% |
|
255 |
4% |
27% |
|
256 |
1.3% |
22% |
|
257 |
2% |
21% |
|
258 |
1.3% |
19% |
|
259 |
0.7% |
18% |
|
260 |
2% |
17% |
|
261 |
0.9% |
15% |
|
262 |
1.3% |
14% |
|
263 |
2% |
13% |
|
264 |
2% |
11% |
|
265 |
2% |
9% |
|
266 |
2% |
7% |
|
267 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
268 |
0.9% |
4% |
|
269 |
0.7% |
3% |
|
270 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
271 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
272 |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
273 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
274 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
275 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
277 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
280 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
281 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
282 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
283 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
284 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
285 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
286 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
|
327 |
0% |
0% |
|
328 |
0% |
0% |
|
329 |
0% |
0% |
|
330 |
0% |
0% |
|
331 |
0% |
0% |
|
332 |
0% |
0% |
|
333 |
0% |
0% |
|
334 |
0% |
0% |
|
335 |
0% |
0% |
|
336 |
0% |
0% |
|
337 |
0% |
0% |
|
338 |
0% |
0% |
|
339 |
0% |
0% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
226 |
0% |
100% |
|
227 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
228 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
229 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
230 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
231 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
232 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
233 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
234 |
0.3% |
98.8% |
|
235 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
236 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
237 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
238 |
2% |
97% |
|
239 |
3% |
95% |
|
240 |
4% |
92% |
|
241 |
2% |
88% |
|
242 |
2% |
86% |
|
243 |
1.3% |
84% |
|
244 |
2% |
82% |
|
245 |
2% |
80% |
|
246 |
5% |
78% |
|
247 |
6% |
73% |
|
248 |
6% |
67% |
|
249 |
3% |
61% |
|
250 |
7% |
57% |
|
251 |
5% |
51% |
Median |
252 |
3% |
45% |
|
253 |
4% |
42% |
|
254 |
2% |
38% |
|
255 |
3% |
37% |
|
256 |
2% |
34% |
|
257 |
3% |
31% |
|
258 |
4% |
28% |
|
259 |
7% |
24% |
|
260 |
5% |
18% |
|
261 |
1.4% |
13% |
|
262 |
2% |
12% |
|
263 |
1.4% |
10% |
|
264 |
0.7% |
8% |
|
265 |
2% |
8% |
|
266 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
267 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
268 |
1.5% |
4% |
|
269 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
270 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
271 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
272 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
273 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
274 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
275 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
276 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
277 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
278 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
279 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
280 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
281 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
282 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
283 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
284 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
285 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
286 |
0% |
0% |
|
287 |
0% |
0% |
|
288 |
0% |
0% |
|
289 |
0% |
0% |
|
290 |
0% |
0% |
|
291 |
0% |
0% |
|
292 |
0% |
0% |
|
293 |
0% |
0% |
|
294 |
0% |
0% |
|
295 |
0% |
0% |
|
296 |
0% |
0% |
|
297 |
0% |
0% |
|
298 |
0% |
0% |
|
299 |
0% |
0% |
|
300 |
0% |
0% |
|
301 |
0% |
0% |
|
302 |
0% |
0% |
|
303 |
0% |
0% |
|
304 |
0% |
0% |
|
305 |
0% |
0% |
|
306 |
0% |
0% |
|
307 |
0% |
0% |
|
308 |
0% |
0% |
|
309 |
0% |
0% |
|
310 |
0% |
0% |
|
311 |
0% |
0% |
|
312 |
0% |
0% |
|
313 |
0% |
0% |
|
314 |
0% |
0% |
|
315 |
0% |
0% |
|
316 |
0% |
0% |
|
317 |
0% |
0% |
|
318 |
0% |
0% |
|
319 |
0% |
0% |
|
320 |
0% |
0% |
|
321 |
0% |
0% |
|
322 |
0% |
0% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0% |
|
325 |
0% |
0% |
|
326 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
192 |
0% |
100% |
|
193 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
194 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
195 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
196 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
197 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
198 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
199 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
200 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
202 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
203 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
204 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
205 |
0.1% |
99.3% |
|
206 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
207 |
0.1% |
99.1% |
|
208 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
209 |
0.5% |
99.0% |
|
210 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
211 |
0% |
98% |
|
212 |
0% |
98% |
|
213 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
214 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
215 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
216 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
217 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
218 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
219 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
220 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
221 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
222 |
0.2% |
97% |
Last Result |
223 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
224 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
225 |
0.7% |
95% |
|
226 |
0.5% |
95% |
|
227 |
1.4% |
94% |
|
228 |
2% |
93% |
|
229 |
1.1% |
91% |
|
230 |
2% |
90% |
|
231 |
2% |
88% |
|
232 |
4% |
86% |
|
233 |
2% |
82% |
|
234 |
2% |
80% |
|
235 |
4% |
78% |
|
236 |
7% |
74% |
|
237 |
3% |
67% |
|
238 |
4% |
65% |
|
239 |
3% |
61% |
|
240 |
8% |
58% |
|
241 |
3% |
50% |
Median |
242 |
6% |
47% |
|
243 |
6% |
41% |
|
244 |
4% |
36% |
|
245 |
2% |
32% |
|
246 |
5% |
30% |
|
247 |
5% |
25% |
|
248 |
4% |
20% |
|
249 |
1.4% |
16% |
|
250 |
1.1% |
15% |
|
251 |
2% |
14% |
|
252 |
5% |
12% |
|
253 |
2% |
7% |
|
254 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
255 |
2% |
5% |
|
256 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
257 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
258 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
259 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
260 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
261 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
262 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
264 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
265 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
266 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
267 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
268 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
269 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Forsa
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 7–13 September 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1876
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.33%