Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 10–13 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 26.0% 24.8–27.3% 24.4–27.6% 24.1–27.9% 23.6–28.5%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 12.5% 11.6–13.5% 11.4–13.8% 11.1–14.0% 10.7–14.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.5% 10.6–12.5% 10.4–12.7% 10.2–13.0% 9.8–13.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 6.5% 5.9–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.5% 4.0–5.2% 3.8–5.3% 3.7–5.5% 3.4–5.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 199 189–208 188–211 185–214 180–218
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 123 115–130 113–133 111–134 108–139
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 115 107–123 105–125 104–127 100–131
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 96 89–103 87–105 85–107 82–111
Alternative für Deutschland 94 88 82–95 79–97 78–99 75–103
Die Linke 69 50 45–55 44–57 42–58 40–61
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 38 34–42 32–44 31–45 29–48

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100% Last Result
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 100%  
166 0% 100%  
167 0% 100%  
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 100%  
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 100%  
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 99.9%  
178 0.1% 99.9%  
179 0.1% 99.8%  
180 0.2% 99.7%  
181 0.2% 99.5%  
182 0.2% 99.3%  
183 0.4% 99.1%  
184 0.8% 98.7%  
185 1.1% 98%  
186 0.6% 97%  
187 1.0% 96%  
188 2% 95%  
189 4% 93%  
190 2% 90%  
191 2% 87%  
192 3% 86%  
193 5% 83%  
194 6% 78%  
195 3% 72%  
196 4% 69%  
197 7% 65%  
198 9% 59%  
199 3% 50% Median
200 3% 47%  
201 7% 44%  
202 7% 37%  
203 5% 30%  
204 3% 25%  
205 3% 23%  
206 5% 20%  
207 3% 15%  
208 2% 12%  
209 2% 10%  
210 2% 8%  
211 2% 6%  
212 0.8% 4%  
213 0.7% 3%  
214 0.8% 3%  
215 0.6% 2%  
216 0.5% 1.4%  
217 0.2% 0.9%  
218 0.3% 0.7%  
219 0.1% 0.4%  
220 0.1% 0.3%  
221 0.1% 0.2%  
222 0% 0.1%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0.1% 100%  
105 0.1% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.8%  
107 0.1% 99.7%  
108 0.2% 99.6%  
109 0.6% 99.4%  
110 1.2% 98.8%  
111 0.8% 98%  
112 0.8% 97%  
113 2% 96%  
114 3% 94%  
115 4% 91%  
116 4% 87%  
117 3% 83%  
118 4% 80%  
119 7% 76%  
120 8% 69%  
121 4% 61%  
122 3% 58%  
123 12% 55% Median
124 7% 43%  
125 5% 36%  
126 5% 31%  
127 3% 26%  
128 5% 23%  
129 7% 18%  
130 3% 12%  
131 1.1% 9%  
132 1.2% 8%  
133 2% 6%  
134 2% 4%  
135 0.7% 2%  
136 0.4% 2%  
137 0.4% 1.5%  
138 0.4% 1.0%  
139 0.3% 0.7%  
140 0.1% 0.4%  
141 0% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0.1% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.8%  
100 0.3% 99.6%  
101 0.3% 99.4%  
102 0.6% 99.1%  
103 0.8% 98%  
104 1.4% 98%  
105 2% 96%  
106 2% 94%  
107 3% 92%  
108 3% 90%  
109 3% 87%  
110 4% 83%  
111 6% 79%  
112 8% 73%  
113 3% 65%  
114 8% 62%  
115 9% 54% Median
116 6% 45%  
117 6% 39%  
118 5% 33%  
119 4% 28%  
120 5% 24%  
121 5% 19%  
122 4% 14%  
123 3% 10%  
124 2% 7%  
125 1.0% 5%  
126 1.3% 4%  
127 0.9% 3%  
128 0.5% 2%  
129 0.6% 1.4%  
130 0.3% 0.9%  
131 0.2% 0.5%  
132 0.2% 0.4%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.4% 99.7%  
83 0.5% 99.4%  
84 0.6% 98.9%  
85 0.9% 98%  
86 1.2% 97%  
87 2% 96%  
88 2% 95%  
89 3% 92%  
90 5% 89%  
91 6% 84%  
92 4% 79%  
93 5% 75%  
94 10% 70%  
95 7% 60%  
96 6% 53% Median
97 11% 47%  
98 7% 36%  
99 5% 29%  
100 5% 25%  
101 5% 19%  
102 3% 15%  
103 3% 11%  
104 2% 9%  
105 2% 6%  
106 1.5% 4%  
107 1.0% 3%  
108 0.5% 2%  
109 0.5% 1.5%  
110 0.3% 0.9%  
111 0.2% 0.6%  
112 0.1% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 0.4% 99.2%  
77 0.8% 98.8%  
78 2% 98%  
79 2% 96%  
80 2% 95%  
81 3% 93%  
82 4% 91%  
83 6% 87%  
84 4% 81%  
85 5% 77%  
86 8% 72%  
87 9% 64%  
88 7% 55% Median
89 6% 47%  
90 9% 41%  
91 7% 33%  
92 6% 26%  
93 4% 20%  
94 3% 16% Last Result
95 4% 13%  
96 3% 9%  
97 1.4% 6%  
98 1.3% 4%  
99 1.0% 3%  
100 1.0% 2%  
101 0.4% 1.2%  
102 0.2% 0.8%  
103 0.2% 0.6%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.7%  
41 0.9% 99.3%  
42 1.4% 98%  
43 2% 97%  
44 3% 95%  
45 7% 92%  
46 5% 85%  
47 7% 81%  
48 10% 74%  
49 8% 64%  
50 14% 55% Median
51 6% 42%  
52 7% 36%  
53 10% 29%  
54 5% 19%  
55 3% 13%  
56 3% 10%  
57 3% 7%  
58 2% 4%  
59 0.9% 2%  
60 0.4% 1.4%  
61 0.6% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.4% 99.8%  
30 0.8% 99.5%  
31 2% 98.7%  
32 2% 97%  
33 4% 95%  
34 7% 91%  
35 7% 84%  
36 8% 76%  
37 14% 68%  
38 12% 54% Median
39 11% 42%  
40 8% 31%  
41 9% 23%  
42 6% 14%  
43 3% 9%  
44 2% 6%  
45 2% 3%  
46 0.8% 2% Last Result
47 0.4% 0.9%  
48 0.3% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 475 100% 465–484 462–487 460–490 455–495
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 456 100% 445–465 443–469 440–471 436–476
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 410 100% 400–420 397–423 395–426 390–431
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 372 98% 361–382 358–385 356–388 351–393
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 365 89% 354–375 351–377 348–380 343–385
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 361 73% 349–370 346–373 344–375 339–381
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 344 11% 334–355 332–358 329–361 324–366
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 314 0% 304–324 301–328 298–330 293–336
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 295 0% 285–306 282–308 280–311 275–316
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 275 0% 265–286 264–288 260–291 256–296
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 257 0% 247–267 244–269 242–272 237–277
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 250 0% 239–259 237–262 234–265 229–270
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 249 0% 239–259 236–262 234–264 229–269

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
449 0% 100%  
450 0% 99.9%  
451 0% 99.9%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0.1% 99.8%  
454 0.2% 99.7%  
455 0.3% 99.6%  
456 0.3% 99.3%  
457 0.4% 99.0%  
458 0.4% 98.6%  
459 0.5% 98%  
460 0.6% 98%  
461 1.1% 97%  
462 1.5% 96%  
463 1.4% 94%  
464 3% 93%  
465 2% 91%  
466 2% 89% Last Result
467 3% 87%  
468 4% 84%  
469 4% 81%  
470 6% 77%  
471 4% 71%  
472 4% 67%  
473 4% 63%  
474 5% 59%  
475 8% 54% Median
476 7% 46%  
477 6% 39%  
478 4% 33%  
479 5% 29%  
480 3% 24%  
481 3% 21%  
482 4% 18%  
483 3% 14%  
484 3% 11%  
485 1.5% 9%  
486 1.2% 7%  
487 1.3% 6%  
488 1.1% 5%  
489 1.1% 4%  
490 0.6% 3%  
491 0.6% 2%  
492 0.4% 1.4%  
493 0.2% 1.1%  
494 0.2% 0.8%  
495 0.2% 0.7%  
496 0.1% 0.4%  
497 0.1% 0.3%  
498 0% 0.2%  
499 0% 0.2%  
500 0% 0.2%  
501 0% 0.1%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0.1%  
507 0% 0.1%  
508 0% 0.1%  
509 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0.1% 99.9%  
433 0.1% 99.8%  
434 0.1% 99.8%  
435 0.1% 99.7%  
436 0.2% 99.6%  
437 0.5% 99.4%  
438 0.3% 99.0%  
439 0.3% 98.7%  
440 1.1% 98%  
441 0.4% 97%  
442 1.0% 97%  
443 1.5% 96%  
444 1.0% 94%  
445 3% 93%  
446 2% 90%  
447 2% 88%  
448 4% 86%  
449 2% 81%  
450 5% 79%  
451 4% 74%  
452 4% 71%  
453 8% 67%  
454 3% 59%  
455 5% 56%  
456 6% 51% Median
457 4% 45%  
458 7% 42%  
459 5% 34%  
460 3% 30%  
461 4% 27%  
462 4% 22%  
463 2% 18%  
464 4% 16%  
465 2% 12%  
466 2% 10%  
467 2% 8%  
468 1.3% 7%  
469 2% 5%  
470 0.7% 3%  
471 0.6% 3%  
472 0.6% 2%  
473 0.5% 2%  
474 0.4% 1.2%  
475 0.2% 0.8%  
476 0.2% 0.6%  
477 0.1% 0.5%  
478 0.1% 0.3%  
479 0% 0.3% Last Result
480 0% 0.2%  
481 0% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0.1% 99.8%  
388 0.1% 99.7%  
389 0.1% 99.6%  
390 0.2% 99.5%  
391 0.3% 99.3%  
392 0.4% 99.0%  
393 0.4% 98.6%  
394 0.6% 98%  
395 1.2% 98%  
396 1.0% 96%  
397 1.2% 95%  
398 1.5% 94%  
399 2% 93%  
400 3% 91%  
401 2% 88%  
402 3% 86%  
403 3% 83%  
404 4% 80%  
405 4% 76%  
406 5% 72%  
407 4% 68%  
408 6% 63%  
409 6% 58%  
410 3% 52% Median
411 5% 48%  
412 5% 44%  
413 7% 39%  
414 4% 32%  
415 2% 28%  
416 4% 26%  
417 4% 22%  
418 3% 18%  
419 3% 15%  
420 2% 12%  
421 2% 10%  
422 2% 7%  
423 1.0% 6%  
424 1.1% 5%  
425 1.1% 4%  
426 0.7% 3%  
427 0.6% 2%  
428 0.3% 1.5%  
429 0.3% 1.2%  
430 0.3% 0.9%  
431 0.2% 0.6%  
432 0.1% 0.5%  
433 0.1% 0.3%  
434 0.1% 0.3%  
435 0% 0.2%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.7%  
351 0.3% 99.6%  
352 0.3% 99.3%  
353 0.4% 99.1%  
354 0.3% 98.7%  
355 0.6% 98% Majority
356 0.8% 98%  
357 1.1% 97%  
358 0.9% 96%  
359 2% 95%  
360 2% 93%  
361 3% 92%  
362 3% 89%  
363 2% 87%  
364 3% 84%  
365 3% 81%  
366 3% 77%  
367 4% 75%  
368 5% 71%  
369 7% 65%  
370 4% 59%  
371 5% 55%  
372 5% 50% Median
373 5% 45%  
374 5% 40%  
375 5% 36%  
376 3% 31%  
377 5% 28%  
378 4% 23%  
379 2% 20%  
380 4% 17%  
381 2% 14%  
382 3% 11%  
383 2% 8%  
384 1.0% 7%  
385 1.0% 6%  
386 1.5% 5%  
387 0.7% 3%  
388 0.6% 3%  
389 0.5% 2%  
390 0.5% 1.4%  
391 0.2% 0.9%  
392 0.1% 0.7%  
393 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
394 0.1% 0.4%  
395 0.1% 0.3%  
396 0.1% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0% 99.9%  
337 0% 99.9%  
338 0% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.8%  
340 0% 99.8%  
341 0.1% 99.7%  
342 0.1% 99.7%  
343 0.2% 99.6%  
344 0.3% 99.4%  
345 0.4% 99.2%  
346 0.6% 98.8%  
347 0.7% 98%  
348 0.7% 98%  
349 0.7% 97%  
350 0.5% 96%  
351 0.8% 96%  
352 1.1% 95%  
353 1.4% 94%  
354 3% 92%  
355 4% 89% Majority
356 4% 86%  
357 3% 82%  
358 4% 79%  
359 4% 74%  
360 3% 71%  
361 3% 68%  
362 3% 65%  
363 6% 62%  
364 6% 56% Median
365 5% 50%  
366 8% 45%  
367 7% 37%  
368 4% 30%  
369 3% 26%  
370 2% 23%  
371 2% 21%  
372 3% 19%  
373 1.5% 15%  
374 3% 14%  
375 3% 11%  
376 2% 8%  
377 1.4% 6%  
378 0.9% 4%  
379 0.6% 3%  
380 0.4% 3%  
381 0.4% 2%  
382 0.6% 2%  
383 0.4% 1.4%  
384 0.4% 1.0%  
385 0.2% 0.6%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
333 0% 100%  
334 0.1% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.8%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.7%  
339 0.1% 99.6%  
340 0.3% 99.4%  
341 0.3% 99.2%  
342 0.5% 98.9%  
343 0.4% 98%  
344 0.7% 98%  
345 0.9% 97%  
346 2% 96%  
347 2% 95%  
348 2% 93%  
349 2% 91%  
350 1.4% 89%  
351 2% 88%  
352 3% 86%  
353 5% 83%  
354 6% 79%  
355 7% 73% Majority
356 4% 66%  
357 2% 62%  
358 2% 60%  
359 2% 57%  
360 5% 55% Median
361 9% 50%  
362 7% 41%  
363 5% 34%  
364 3% 29%  
365 3% 26%  
366 2% 23%  
367 4% 20%  
368 3% 17%  
369 2% 13%  
370 2% 11%  
371 2% 9%  
372 1.3% 7%  
373 2% 6%  
374 1.1% 4%  
375 0.8% 3%  
376 0.5% 2%  
377 0.3% 2%  
378 0.3% 2%  
379 0.4% 1.3%  
380 0.3% 0.9%  
381 0.3% 0.7%  
382 0.2% 0.4%  
383 0% 0.3%  
384 0% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.2% 99.6%  
325 0.4% 99.4%  
326 0.4% 99.0%  
327 0.6% 98.6%  
328 0.4% 98%  
329 0.4% 98%  
330 0.6% 97%  
331 0.9% 97%  
332 1.4% 96%  
333 2% 94%  
334 3% 92%  
335 3% 89%  
336 1.5% 86%  
337 3% 85%  
338 2% 81%  
339 2% 79%  
340 3% 77%  
341 4% 74%  
342 7% 70%  
343 8% 63%  
344 5% 55%  
345 6% 50% Median
346 6% 44%  
347 3% 38%  
348 3% 35%  
349 3% 32%  
350 4% 29%  
351 4% 26%  
352 3% 21%  
353 4% 18%  
354 4% 14%  
355 3% 11% Majority
356 1.4% 8%  
357 1.1% 6%  
358 0.8% 5%  
359 0.5% 4%  
360 0.7% 4%  
361 0.7% 3%  
362 0.7% 2%  
363 0.6% 2%  
364 0.4% 1.2%  
365 0.3% 0.8%  
366 0.2% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.6%  
294 0.2% 99.5%  
295 0.3% 99.3%  
296 0.5% 99.1%  
297 0.5% 98.6%  
298 0.8% 98%  
299 1.2% 97%  
300 0.7% 96%  
301 0.8% 95%  
302 1.3% 94%  
303 1.4% 93%  
304 2% 92%  
305 3% 89%  
306 4% 86%  
307 4% 82%  
308 5% 79%  
309 2% 74%  
310 3% 72%  
311 4% 69%  
312 4% 65%  
313 6% 60%  
314 6% 54% Median
315 6% 48%  
316 6% 42%  
317 4% 37%  
318 3% 32%  
319 4% 29%  
320 5% 26%  
321 3% 21%  
322 4% 18%  
323 3% 14%  
324 2% 11%  
325 1.4% 9%  
326 1.1% 8%  
327 1.4% 7%  
328 1.3% 5%  
329 0.6% 4%  
330 0.9% 3%  
331 0.8% 2%  
332 0.3% 1.4%  
333 0.2% 1.1%  
334 0.1% 0.8%  
335 0.2% 0.7%  
336 0.2% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100% Last Result
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.2% 99.6%  
276 0.2% 99.4%  
277 0.3% 99.1%  
278 0.5% 98.8%  
279 0.6% 98%  
280 0.8% 98%  
281 1.3% 97%  
282 1.2% 96%  
283 1.2% 94%  
284 2% 93%  
285 3% 91%  
286 2% 88%  
287 4% 86%  
288 4% 83%  
289 3% 79%  
290 3% 75%  
291 6% 73%  
292 5% 67%  
293 4% 62%  
294 4% 58%  
295 7% 53% Median
296 4% 47%  
297 5% 42%  
298 5% 37%  
299 4% 32%  
300 4% 28%  
301 3% 24%  
302 4% 21%  
303 4% 18%  
304 2% 14%  
305 2% 12%  
306 2% 10%  
307 2% 8%  
308 2% 6%  
309 1.1% 5%  
310 0.8% 4%  
311 0.9% 3%  
312 0.4% 2%  
313 0.3% 2%  
314 0.3% 1.2%  
315 0.2% 0.9%  
316 0.2% 0.6%  
317 0.1% 0.4%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0.1% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0.1% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0% 99.7%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0.2% 99.6%  
257 0.4% 99.5%  
258 0.7% 99.0%  
259 0.7% 98%  
260 0.7% 98%  
261 0.4% 97%  
262 0.4% 97%  
263 1.0% 96%  
264 2% 95%  
265 3% 93%  
266 4% 90%  
267 3% 86%  
268 1.3% 83%  
269 2% 82%  
270 3% 80%  
271 4% 77%  
272 7% 73%  
273 7% 66%  
274 7% 59%  
275 4% 52%  
276 2% 48% Median
277 3% 46%  
278 5% 43%  
279 7% 38%  
280 6% 32%  
281 5% 25%  
282 3% 20%  
283 1.4% 17%  
284 1.1% 15%  
285 2% 14%  
286 3% 12%  
287 3% 9%  
288 2% 6%  
289 1.4% 5%  
290 0.5% 3%  
291 0.3% 3%  
292 0.4% 2%  
293 0.5% 2%  
294 0.5% 1.4%  
295 0.4% 1.0%  
296 0.2% 0.6%  
297 0.1% 0.4%  
298 0% 0.3%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
232 0% 100%  
233 0.1% 99.9%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0.1% 99.7%  
237 0.3% 99.6%  
238 0.3% 99.4%  
239 0.2% 99.0%  
240 0.6% 98.8%  
241 0.6% 98%  
242 0.9% 98%  
243 1.0% 97%  
244 1.4% 96%  
245 2% 94%  
246 2% 92%  
247 2% 91%  
248 3% 88%  
249 2% 85%  
250 4% 82%  
251 4% 79%  
252 5% 75%  
253 3% 70%  
254 7% 67%  
255 6% 60%  
256 3% 53%  
257 6% 50% Median
258 4% 44%  
259 5% 40%  
260 5% 35%  
261 3% 30%  
262 5% 27%  
263 3% 22%  
264 3% 19%  
265 4% 16%  
266 2% 12%  
267 3% 10%  
268 1.3% 8%  
269 1.4% 6%  
270 1.2% 5%  
271 0.8% 4%  
272 0.7% 3%  
273 0.5% 2%  
274 0.5% 2%  
275 0.3% 1.2%  
276 0.2% 0.8%  
277 0.2% 0.6%  
278 0.1% 0.4%  
279 0.1% 0.3%  
280 0.1% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
212 0% 100%  
213 0% 99.9%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0% 99.9%  
218 0% 99.9%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9% Last Result
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0.1% 99.7%  
229 0.2% 99.6%  
230 0.2% 99.4%  
231 0.3% 99.2%  
232 0.5% 98.9%  
233 0.7% 98%  
234 0.6% 98%  
235 0.6% 97%  
236 0.9% 96%  
237 2% 96%  
238 3% 94%  
239 2% 91%  
240 2% 89%  
241 2% 87%  
242 4% 85%  
243 3% 81%  
244 6% 78%  
245 4% 72%  
246 7% 68%  
247 4% 61%  
248 3% 57%  
249 3% 54% Median
250 4% 51%  
251 9% 46%  
252 7% 37%  
253 4% 30%  
254 3% 26%  
255 3% 24%  
256 3% 21%  
257 3% 17%  
258 2% 14%  
259 3% 12%  
260 2% 9%  
261 2% 7%  
262 1.1% 5%  
263 0.8% 4%  
264 0.9% 4%  
265 0.9% 3%  
266 0.4% 2%  
267 0.2% 1.2%  
268 0.2% 1.0%  
269 0.3% 0.8%  
270 0.2% 0.5%  
271 0.1% 0.3%  
272 0.1% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.8%  
229 0.2% 99.6%  
230 0.2% 99.5%  
231 0.3% 99.2%  
232 0.6% 98.9%  
233 0.6% 98%  
234 0.8% 98%  
235 1.0% 97%  
236 1.3% 96%  
237 2% 95%  
238 2% 93%  
239 3% 91%  
240 3% 88%  
241 3% 85%  
242 4% 83%  
243 4% 79%  
244 2% 75%  
245 6% 73%  
246 5% 66%  
247 5% 62%  
248 5% 57%  
249 5% 52% Median
250 6% 47%  
251 4% 41%  
252 4% 36%  
253 6% 33%  
254 3% 27%  
255 5% 24%  
256 3% 19%  
257 4% 17%  
258 2% 13%  
259 2% 11%  
260 2% 9%  
261 1.2% 6%  
262 1.1% 5%  
263 0.9% 4%  
264 0.9% 3%  
265 0.6% 2%  
266 0.5% 2%  
267 0.3% 1.2%  
268 0.2% 0.9%  
269 0.2% 0.6%  
270 0.2% 0.5%  
271 0.1% 0.3%  
272 0.1% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.2%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

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