Opinion Poll by YouGov, 9–14 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 25.3% 24.0–26.6% 23.6–27.0% 23.3–27.3% 22.7–28.0%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 16.4% 15.3–17.6% 15.0–17.9% 14.8–18.2% 14.3–18.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 15.1% 14.1–16.3% 13.8–16.6% 13.6–16.9% 13.1–17.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.1% 10.2–12.1% 10.0–12.4% 9.8–12.7% 9.3–13.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.1% 9.2–11.1% 9.0–11.3% 8.8–11.6% 8.4–12.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.1% 7.3–9.0% 7.1–9.2% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 3.8% 3.3–4.5% 3.1–4.6% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1%
Freie Wähler 0.0% 3.0% 2.6–3.6% 2.4–3.8% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 198 188–209 184–211 183–214 178–218
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 129 120–137 118–140 116–142 112–147
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 118 111–127 109–129 106–131 102–136
Alternative für Deutschland 94 87 80–95 78–97 76–99 73–103
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 79 72–87 70–89 69–90 66–94
Die Linke 69 63 57–71 56–72 54–74 52–78
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 33 29–38 27–39 27–40 25–43
Freie Wähler 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100% Last Result
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 100%  
166 0% 100%  
167 0% 100%  
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 100%  
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 99.9%  
175 0.1% 99.9%  
176 0.2% 99.9%  
177 0.1% 99.7%  
178 0.2% 99.6%  
179 0.4% 99.4%  
180 0.3% 99.0%  
181 0.4% 98.8%  
182 0.6% 98%  
183 1.1% 98%  
184 2% 97%  
185 0.7% 95%  
186 0.8% 94%  
187 2% 93%  
188 3% 91%  
189 2% 88%  
190 2% 86%  
191 4% 84%  
192 4% 80%  
193 2% 76%  
194 4% 74%  
195 2% 70%  
196 9% 68%  
197 7% 58%  
198 3% 51% Median
199 3% 48%  
200 5% 45%  
201 4% 40%  
202 6% 36%  
203 3% 30%  
204 6% 27%  
205 4% 21%  
206 2% 17%  
207 1.4% 15%  
208 2% 14%  
209 5% 11%  
210 1.2% 6%  
211 0.6% 5%  
212 1.1% 5%  
213 1.0% 4%  
214 0.7% 3%  
215 0.3% 2%  
216 0.3% 2%  
217 0.6% 1.3%  
218 0.3% 0.6%  
219 0% 0.4%  
220 0.1% 0.3%  
221 0.1% 0.2%  
222 0.1% 0.2%  
223 0% 0.1%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.2% 99.7%  
112 0.1% 99.5%  
113 0.4% 99.4%  
114 0.4% 99.0%  
115 0.5% 98.6%  
116 0.8% 98%  
117 2% 97%  
118 1.5% 96%  
119 3% 94%  
120 2% 91%  
121 3% 88%  
122 4% 85%  
123 3% 81%  
124 5% 78%  
125 4% 72%  
126 7% 68%  
127 4% 62%  
128 3% 58%  
129 6% 55% Median
130 6% 48%  
131 4% 42%  
132 7% 38%  
133 6% 31%  
134 7% 25%  
135 4% 18%  
136 3% 14%  
137 1.4% 11%  
138 3% 9%  
139 2% 7%  
140 1.2% 5%  
141 1.0% 4%  
142 0.6% 3%  
143 0.4% 2%  
144 0.5% 2%  
145 0.4% 1.3%  
146 0.4% 0.9%  
147 0.2% 0.6%  
148 0.1% 0.4%  
149 0.1% 0.3%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.7%  
103 0.5% 99.4%  
104 0.3% 98.9%  
105 0.5% 98.6%  
106 0.9% 98%  
107 0.8% 97%  
108 1.0% 96%  
109 2% 95%  
110 3% 94%  
111 4% 90%  
112 3% 87%  
113 8% 84%  
114 5% 76%  
115 3% 71%  
116 9% 68%  
117 7% 59%  
118 6% 52% Median
119 4% 46%  
120 6% 42%  
121 3% 36%  
122 4% 33%  
123 3% 29%  
124 4% 25%  
125 7% 22%  
126 2% 15%  
127 4% 13%  
128 3% 9%  
129 1.3% 6%  
130 1.0% 5%  
131 1.1% 4%  
132 0.7% 2%  
133 0.5% 2%  
134 0.2% 1.2%  
135 0.4% 1.0%  
136 0.2% 0.6%  
137 0.1% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.7%  
74 0.3% 99.3%  
75 0.5% 99.0%  
76 1.1% 98.5%  
77 1.4% 97%  
78 2% 96%  
79 3% 94%  
80 3% 91%  
81 4% 88%  
82 5% 85%  
83 5% 80%  
84 6% 74%  
85 7% 68%  
86 7% 61%  
87 7% 54% Median
88 7% 47%  
89 6% 41%  
90 5% 35%  
91 5% 30%  
92 6% 24%  
93 6% 19%  
94 2% 13% Last Result
95 2% 10%  
96 2% 8%  
97 2% 6%  
98 0.9% 4%  
99 1.0% 3%  
100 0.6% 2%  
101 0.5% 1.4%  
102 0.3% 0.8%  
103 0.2% 0.5%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.3% 99.5%  
67 0.9% 99.3%  
68 0.6% 98%  
69 1.3% 98%  
70 2% 97%  
71 2% 95%  
72 4% 93%  
73 3% 90%  
74 5% 87%  
75 5% 82%  
76 7% 77%  
77 6% 69%  
78 8% 63%  
79 6% 55% Median
80 9% 49% Last Result
81 5% 40%  
82 6% 35%  
83 4% 28%  
84 7% 24%  
85 3% 17%  
86 4% 14%  
87 3% 11%  
88 2% 8%  
89 2% 5%  
90 2% 4%  
91 0.6% 2%  
92 0.5% 1.5%  
93 0.4% 1.0%  
94 0.2% 0.6%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.6% 99.6%  
53 0.8% 99.0%  
54 2% 98%  
55 1.4% 97%  
56 3% 95%  
57 3% 92%  
58 4% 89%  
59 5% 85%  
60 8% 80%  
61 5% 72%  
62 9% 66%  
63 8% 57% Median
64 8% 49%  
65 7% 41%  
66 7% 34%  
67 5% 27%  
68 5% 22%  
69 4% 17% Last Result
70 3% 13%  
71 3% 11%  
72 2% 7%  
73 1.3% 5%  
74 1.4% 4%  
75 0.9% 2%  
76 0.5% 1.3%  
77 0.3% 0.8%  
78 0.2% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.6% 99.6%  
26 1.2% 99.0%  
27 3% 98%  
28 5% 95%  
29 7% 90%  
30 7% 83%  
31 12% 76%  
32 9% 64%  
33 13% 55% Median
34 11% 42%  
35 7% 31%  
36 6% 23%  
37 5% 17%  
38 4% 12%  
39 3% 7%  
40 2% 4%  
41 1.1% 2%  
42 0.5% 1.2%  
43 0.4% 0.7%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0.1% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

Freie Wähler

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Wähler page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 479 100% 468–490 465–493 462–495 458–499
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 440 100% 428–450 424–453 422–456 418–461
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 396 100% 385–408 381–410 380–413 373–419
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 381 99.9% 369–391 367–395 364–398 358–403
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 360 70% 349–371 345–374 342–377 338–382
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 360 75% 349–371 346–375 342–377 337–383
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 328 0.1% 318–340 314–342 311–345 306–351
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 316 0% 306–329 304–332 301–334 293–339
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 280 0% 270–291 266–294 264–297 259–302
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 278 0% 266–289 263–291 260–294 256–299
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 262 0% 251–272 248–275 245–278 240–285
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 249 0% 238–260 235–263 232–265 228–272
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 241 0% 231–251 227–255 225–258 220–262

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
451 0% 100%  
452 0% 99.9%  
453 0% 99.9%  
454 0.1% 99.8%  
455 0.1% 99.8%  
456 0.1% 99.7%  
457 0.1% 99.6%  
458 0.2% 99.5%  
459 0.1% 99.3%  
460 0.4% 99.2%  
461 0.8% 98.8%  
462 0.7% 98%  
463 0.8% 97%  
464 1.4% 96%  
465 1.5% 95%  
466 1.1% 94% Last Result
467 1.3% 92%  
468 1.3% 91%  
469 2% 90%  
470 4% 88%  
471 2% 85%  
472 5% 83%  
473 4% 77%  
474 4% 73%  
475 7% 68%  
476 3% 61%  
477 4% 58%  
478 3% 54% Median
479 4% 51%  
480 3% 48%  
481 8% 44%  
482 4% 36%  
483 5% 33%  
484 5% 27%  
485 3% 22%  
486 2% 18%  
487 2% 16%  
488 2% 14%  
489 1.2% 12%  
490 2% 11%  
491 2% 9%  
492 1.0% 6%  
493 1.4% 5%  
494 0.6% 4%  
495 2% 3%  
496 0.5% 2%  
497 0.5% 1.3%  
498 0.2% 0.8%  
499 0.1% 0.6%  
500 0.1% 0.5%  
501 0.1% 0.4%  
502 0.1% 0.3%  
503 0.1% 0.2%  
504 0.1% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0.1% 99.8%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.7%  
417 0.1% 99.6%  
418 0.1% 99.5%  
419 0.4% 99.4%  
420 0.4% 99.0%  
421 0.5% 98.7%  
422 0.7% 98%  
423 0.6% 97%  
424 2% 97%  
425 1.5% 95%  
426 0.7% 93%  
427 2% 93%  
428 1.5% 91%  
429 2% 90%  
430 2% 88%  
431 2% 86%  
432 3% 83%  
433 5% 81%  
434 3% 76%  
435 3% 73%  
436 6% 70%  
437 4% 63%  
438 6% 59%  
439 3% 53% Median
440 5% 51%  
441 6% 46%  
442 4% 40%  
443 2% 36%  
444 3% 33%  
445 4% 31%  
446 7% 27%  
447 2% 20%  
448 2% 18%  
449 6% 16%  
450 2% 11%  
451 1.5% 9%  
452 1.0% 8%  
453 3% 6%  
454 0.7% 4%  
455 0.6% 3%  
456 0.5% 3%  
457 0.4% 2%  
458 0.5% 2%  
459 0.3% 1.2%  
460 0.1% 0.9%  
461 0.3% 0.8%  
462 0.2% 0.4%  
463 0.1% 0.2%  
464 0.1% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0.1% 0.1%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.8%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0.2% 99.6%  
374 0.1% 99.4%  
375 0.2% 99.3%  
376 0.2% 99.1%  
377 0.5% 98.9%  
378 0.4% 98%  
379 0.5% 98%  
380 2% 98%  
381 1.0% 96%  
382 0.7% 95%  
383 0.9% 94%  
384 2% 93%  
385 3% 91%  
386 2% 88%  
387 2% 86%  
388 3% 83%  
389 2% 80%  
390 3% 78%  
391 6% 75%  
392 4% 69%  
393 3% 64%  
394 3% 61%  
395 4% 58% Median
396 4% 54%  
397 5% 50%  
398 7% 45%  
399 3% 38%  
400 2% 35%  
401 3% 33%  
402 5% 30%  
403 4% 25%  
404 3% 21%  
405 4% 18%  
406 1.4% 15%  
407 2% 13%  
408 2% 11%  
409 3% 9%  
410 1.3% 6%  
411 1.0% 5%  
412 0.6% 4%  
413 0.8% 3%  
414 0.6% 2%  
415 0.5% 2%  
416 0.4% 1.4%  
417 0.4% 1.0%  
418 0.1% 0.6%  
419 0.1% 0.5%  
420 0.2% 0.4%  
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0.2% 99.7%  
358 0.1% 99.5%  
359 0.2% 99.4%  
360 0.2% 99.2%  
361 0.3% 99.0%  
362 0.3% 98.8%  
363 0.9% 98%  
364 0.6% 98%  
365 0.8% 97%  
366 1.0% 96%  
367 2% 95%  
368 1.3% 93%  
369 2% 92%  
370 1.2% 89%  
371 3% 88%  
372 4% 85%  
373 4% 81%  
374 3% 77%  
375 4% 74%  
376 2% 70%  
377 4% 68%  
378 4% 64%  
379 4% 60% Median
380 6% 56%  
381 7% 51%  
382 5% 44%  
383 4% 39%  
384 4% 35%  
385 2% 30%  
386 3% 28%  
387 2% 25%  
388 4% 23%  
389 4% 19%  
390 2% 15%  
391 3% 13%  
392 1.3% 10%  
393 1.5% 9%  
394 0.9% 7%  
395 2% 6%  
396 0.7% 4%  
397 0.9% 4%  
398 0.3% 3%  
399 0.8% 2%  
400 0.3% 2%  
401 0.4% 1.2%  
402 0.2% 0.8%  
403 0.1% 0.6%  
404 0.1% 0.5%  
405 0.1% 0.4%  
406 0.1% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0.1% 99.9%  
335 0.1% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.7%  
337 0.1% 99.7%  
338 0.3% 99.6%  
339 0.1% 99.3%  
340 0.5% 99.2%  
341 0.4% 98.7%  
342 0.7% 98%  
343 1.1% 97%  
344 0.9% 96%  
345 0.7% 95%  
346 1.3% 95%  
347 2% 94%  
348 2% 92%  
349 2% 90%  
350 1.1% 89%  
351 3% 88%  
352 4% 85%  
353 5% 80%  
354 5% 75%  
355 3% 70% Majority
356 3% 67%  
357 4% 64%  
358 3% 60%  
359 4% 57% Median
360 4% 53%  
361 5% 49%  
362 6% 44%  
363 7% 38%  
364 3% 32%  
365 5% 29%  
366 3% 24%  
367 4% 21%  
368 3% 17%  
369 1.3% 14%  
370 2% 12%  
371 1.3% 10%  
372 1.2% 9%  
373 1.3% 8%  
374 2% 6%  
375 0.9% 5%  
376 0.9% 4%  
377 0.7% 3%  
378 0.7% 2%  
379 0.5% 1.5%  
380 0.2% 1.0%  
381 0.2% 0.8%  
382 0.1% 0.6%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0.1% 0.4%  
385 0.1% 0.3%  
386 0.1% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.9%  
335 0.2% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.6%  
337 0.2% 99.5%  
338 0.1% 99.4%  
339 0.2% 99.3%  
340 0.5% 99.1%  
341 0.6% 98.5%  
342 0.8% 98%  
343 0.4% 97%  
344 0.8% 97%  
345 0.8% 96%  
346 1.2% 95%  
347 1.3% 94%  
348 2% 93%  
349 3% 91%  
350 2% 88%  
351 3% 86%  
352 3% 84%  
353 3% 81%  
354 2% 78%  
355 4% 75% Majority
356 4% 72%  
357 5% 67%  
358 4% 62%  
359 7% 58%  
360 3% 51% Median
361 4% 48%  
362 5% 44%  
363 2% 38%  
364 5% 36%  
365 5% 31%  
366 3% 26%  
367 3% 23%  
368 2% 20%  
369 3% 17%  
370 3% 14%  
371 3% 11%  
372 1.3% 9%  
373 0.8% 7%  
374 1.2% 6%  
375 0.9% 5%  
376 0.8% 4%  
377 2% 3%  
378 0.3% 2%  
379 0.3% 1.5%  
380 0.3% 1.2%  
381 0.2% 0.9%  
382 0.1% 0.7%  
383 0.2% 0.5%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0.1% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.6%  
306 0.1% 99.5%  
307 0.2% 99.4%  
308 0.4% 99.2%  
309 0.3% 98.8%  
310 0.8% 98%  
311 0.3% 98%  
312 0.9% 97%  
313 0.7% 96%  
314 2% 96%  
315 0.9% 94%  
316 1.5% 93%  
317 1.3% 91%  
318 3% 90%  
319 2% 87%  
320 4% 85%  
321 4% 81%  
322 2% 77%  
323 3% 75%  
324 2% 72%  
325 4% 70%  
326 4% 65%  
327 5% 61%  
328 7% 56% Median
329 6% 49%  
330 4% 44%  
331 4% 40%  
332 4% 36%  
333 2% 32%  
334 4% 30%  
335 3% 26%  
336 4% 23%  
337 4% 19%  
338 3% 15%  
339 1.2% 12%  
340 2% 11%  
341 1.3% 8%  
342 2% 7%  
343 1.0% 5%  
344 0.8% 4%  
345 0.6% 3%  
346 0.9% 2%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.3% 1.2%  
349 0.2% 1.0%  
350 0.2% 0.8%  
351 0.1% 0.6%  
352 0.2% 0.5%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0.1% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0.3% 99.8%  
294 0.2% 99.5%  
295 0% 99.3%  
296 0.5% 99.2%  
297 0.2% 98.8%  
298 0.2% 98.6%  
299 0.6% 98%  
300 0.1% 98%  
301 0.8% 98%  
302 1.1% 97%  
303 0.4% 96%  
304 3% 95%  
305 2% 93%  
306 0.6% 91%  
307 5% 90%  
308 2% 85%  
309 2% 83%  
310 9% 81%  
311 0.7% 72%  
312 4% 72%  
313 7% 67%  
314 3% 60%  
315 6% 57%  
316 3% 52% Median
317 2% 49%  
318 9% 47%  
319 2% 38%  
320 2% 36%  
321 6% 34%  
322 0.8% 28%  
323 4% 28%  
324 2% 24%  
325 0.7% 22%  
326 4% 21%  
327 3% 17%  
328 1.3% 14%  
329 5% 13%  
330 0.7% 7%  
331 1.0% 7%  
332 2% 6%  
333 0.4% 3%  
334 0.8% 3%  
335 0.5% 2%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.5% 1.3%  
338 0.2% 0.7%  
339 0.1% 0.5%  
340 0.2% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0.1% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.2% 99.6%  
260 0.1% 99.4%  
261 0.5% 99.3%  
262 0.4% 98.8%  
263 0.5% 98%  
264 1.2% 98%  
265 1.4% 97%  
266 0.6% 95%  
267 0.8% 94%  
268 1.1% 94%  
269 1.4% 93%  
270 2% 91%  
271 2% 89%  
272 5% 87%  
273 4% 82%  
274 3% 78%  
275 3% 74%  
276 4% 71%  
277 4% 67%  
278 2% 63%  
279 9% 61%  
280 5% 52% Median
281 5% 48%  
282 3% 43%  
283 4% 40%  
284 5% 36%  
285 3% 31%  
286 3% 28%  
287 6% 26%  
288 5% 20%  
289 2% 15%  
290 2% 13%  
291 2% 10%  
292 1.3% 9%  
293 0.9% 7%  
294 2% 6%  
295 0.7% 5%  
296 1.1% 4%  
297 0.6% 3%  
298 0.7% 2%  
299 0.4% 2%  
300 0.4% 1.4%  
301 0.2% 1.0%  
302 0.3% 0.8%  
303 0.2% 0.5%  
304 0.1% 0.3%  
305 0.1% 0.2%  
306 0% 0.2%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0.1%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100% Last Result
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0.3% 99.5%  
257 0.2% 99.3%  
258 0.4% 99.1%  
259 0.5% 98.7%  
260 0.7% 98%  
261 0.6% 97%  
262 2% 97%  
263 0.5% 95%  
264 1.3% 95%  
265 2% 93%  
266 1.4% 91%  
267 3% 90%  
268 2% 87%  
269 2% 84%  
270 3% 83%  
271 3% 80%  
272 3% 77%  
273 5% 74%  
274 4% 69%  
275 4% 65%  
276 5% 61%  
277 4% 56% Median
278 4% 52%  
279 6% 48%  
280 5% 42%  
281 3% 37%  
282 5% 33%  
283 2% 29%  
284 5% 27%  
285 2% 22%  
286 5% 19%  
287 2% 15%  
288 1.5% 13%  
289 3% 11%  
290 1.4% 8%  
291 2% 7%  
292 0.6% 5%  
293 0.8% 4%  
294 1.0% 3%  
295 0.5% 2%  
296 0.6% 2%  
297 0.4% 1.3%  
298 0.2% 0.9%  
299 0.2% 0.7%  
300 0.2% 0.5%  
301 0.1% 0.3%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0.1% 0.2%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
222 0% 100% Last Result
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.9%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.2% 99.6%  
241 0.2% 99.5%  
242 0.2% 99.2%  
243 0.2% 99.0%  
244 0.6% 98.8%  
245 0.8% 98%  
246 0.5% 97%  
247 0.6% 97%  
248 2% 96%  
249 1.3% 95%  
250 2% 93%  
251 1.4% 91%  
252 3% 89%  
253 2% 87%  
254 3% 84%  
255 2% 81%  
256 7% 79%  
257 5% 72%  
258 3% 67%  
259 2% 64%  
260 5% 62%  
261 3% 57% Median
262 5% 54%  
263 6% 49%  
264 5% 43%  
265 2% 37%  
266 4% 35%  
267 5% 31%  
268 5% 26%  
269 3% 21%  
270 2% 19%  
271 5% 17%  
272 3% 12%  
273 2% 9%  
274 2% 8%  
275 0.9% 6%  
276 0.5% 5%  
277 0.8% 4%  
278 1.3% 4%  
279 0.6% 2%  
280 0.2% 2%  
281 0.3% 1.4%  
282 0.2% 1.1%  
283 0.3% 0.9%  
284 0.1% 0.6%  
285 0.3% 0.6%  
286 0.1% 0.3%  
287 0.1% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
223 0.1% 100%  
224 0.1% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0.4% 99.7%  
229 0.4% 99.2%  
230 0.1% 98.8%  
231 0.2% 98.6%  
232 1.0% 98%  
233 1.0% 97%  
234 0.5% 96%  
235 1.2% 96%  
236 0.9% 95%  
237 1.5% 94%  
238 3% 92%  
239 0.9% 89%  
240 2% 88%  
241 5% 86%  
242 4% 81%  
243 2% 78%  
244 2% 75%  
245 7% 73%  
246 8% 67%  
247 2% 59%  
248 3% 57%  
249 5% 54% Median
250 5% 48%  
251 6% 43%  
252 3% 37%  
253 2% 35%  
254 6% 32%  
255 6% 27%  
256 2% 20%  
257 3% 19%  
258 2% 16%  
259 3% 14%  
260 3% 11%  
261 0.8% 7%  
262 0.9% 7%  
263 2% 6%  
264 1.0% 4%  
265 0.5% 3%  
266 0.4% 2%  
267 0.6% 2%  
268 0.3% 1.5%  
269 0.3% 1.2%  
270 0.2% 0.8%  
271 0.1% 0.6%  
272 0.3% 0.5%  
273 0.1% 0.2%  
274 0% 0.2%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0.1%  
277 0% 0.1%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
214 0% 100%  
215 0% 99.9%  
216 0% 99.9%  
217 0.1% 99.9%  
218 0.1% 99.8%  
219 0.1% 99.7%  
220 0.3% 99.6%  
221 0.3% 99.3%  
222 0.3% 99.0%  
223 0.3% 98.7%  
224 0.4% 98%  
225 0.9% 98%  
226 1.1% 97%  
227 1.0% 96%  
228 1.5% 95%  
229 1.3% 94%  
230 2% 92%  
231 1.2% 91%  
232 5% 89%  
233 4% 85%  
234 3% 81%  
235 1.5% 78%  
236 5% 76%  
237 4% 72%  
238 5% 67%  
239 2% 62%  
240 8% 60%  
241 4% 52% Median
242 3% 49%  
243 3% 45%  
244 7% 43%  
245 7% 35%  
246 3% 28%  
247 4% 26%  
248 3% 21%  
249 3% 19%  
250 3% 15%  
251 3% 13%  
252 2% 9%  
253 1.1% 8%  
254 0.8% 7%  
255 2% 6%  
256 0.9% 4%  
257 0.6% 3%  
258 1.2% 3%  
259 0.3% 2%  
260 0.3% 1.3%  
261 0.2% 1.0%  
262 0.3% 0.8%  
263 0.2% 0.5%  
264 0.1% 0.3%  
265 0.1% 0.2%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations