Opinion Poll by Ipsos, 15–16 September 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 27.0% 25.7–28.3% 25.4–28.7% 25.1–29.0% 24.5–29.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.5% 16.4–19.8% 15.9–20.3%
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 17.0% 16.0–18.2% 15.7–18.5% 15.5–18.8% 15.0–19.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 4.0% 3.4–4.6% 3.3–4.8% 3.2–4.9% 2.9–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 203 193–212 190–215 188–217 184–222
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 135 127–143 125–146 123–148 119–152
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 128 120–136 118–138 116–141 112–145
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 76–90 74–92 73–93 70–96
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 75 69–82 67–84 66–85 63–89
Die Linke 69 53 47–58 46–60 45–61 42–64
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 33 29–37 28–39 27–40 25–42

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100% Last Result
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 100%  
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 100%  
163 0% 100%  
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 100%  
166 0% 100%  
167 0% 100%  
168 0% 100%  
169 0% 100%  
170 0% 100%  
171 0% 100%  
172 0% 100%  
173 0% 100%  
174 0% 100%  
175 0% 100%  
176 0% 100%  
177 0% 100%  
178 0% 100%  
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0.1% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.8%  
183 0.2% 99.7%  
184 0.2% 99.5%  
185 0.3% 99.3%  
186 0.4% 99.0%  
187 0.6% 98.5%  
188 0.8% 98%  
189 1.0% 97%  
190 1.4% 96%  
191 2% 95%  
192 2% 93%  
193 2% 91%  
194 3% 89%  
195 3% 86%  
196 3% 83%  
197 4% 80%  
198 5% 76%  
199 5% 71%  
200 5% 66%  
201 5% 61%  
202 5% 55%  
203 5% 50% Median
204 6% 45%  
205 5% 40%  
206 6% 34%  
207 4% 28%  
208 3% 24%  
209 4% 21%  
210 4% 17%  
211 2% 13%  
212 3% 11%  
213 1.3% 8%  
214 2% 7%  
215 1.3% 5%  
216 1.0% 4%  
217 0.7% 3%  
218 0.5% 2%  
219 0.5% 2%  
220 0.2% 1.0%  
221 0.2% 0.7%  
222 0.1% 0.5%  
223 0.1% 0.4%  
224 0.1% 0.3%  
225 0.1% 0.2%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.2% 99.8%  
119 0.2% 99.6%  
120 0.4% 99.4%  
121 0.5% 99.0%  
122 0.7% 98%  
123 1.0% 98%  
124 2% 97%  
125 2% 95%  
126 2% 93%  
127 3% 91%  
128 4% 88%  
129 4% 84%  
130 5% 80%  
131 4% 75%  
132 6% 71%  
133 6% 65%  
134 7% 60%  
135 6% 53% Median
136 5% 46%  
137 6% 41%  
138 7% 36%  
139 6% 29%  
140 4% 23%  
141 4% 20%  
142 3% 16%  
143 3% 12%  
144 2% 9%  
145 2% 7%  
146 2% 5%  
147 1.0% 4%  
148 0.9% 3%  
149 0.4% 2%  
150 0.5% 1.3%  
151 0.3% 0.9%  
152 0.2% 0.6%  
153 0.2% 0.4%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.2% 99.7%  
113 0.3% 99.4%  
114 0.4% 99.1%  
115 0.8% 98.6%  
116 0.9% 98%  
117 1.3% 97%  
118 2% 96%  
119 2% 94%  
120 3% 92%  
121 3% 89%  
122 4% 86%  
123 5% 82%  
124 6% 77%  
125 4% 71%  
126 8% 67%  
127 7% 59%  
128 6% 52% Median
129 6% 47%  
130 5% 40%  
131 7% 35%  
132 5% 28%  
133 4% 23%  
134 4% 19%  
135 3% 15%  
136 3% 12%  
137 2% 9%  
138 2% 7%  
139 1.2% 5%  
140 1.0% 4%  
141 0.8% 3%  
142 0.4% 2%  
143 0.5% 1.4%  
144 0.3% 0.8%  
145 0.2% 0.5%  
146 0.1% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0%  
154 0% 0%  
155 0% 0%  
156 0% 0%  
157 0% 0%  
158 0% 0%  
159 0% 0%  
160 0% 0%  
161 0% 0%  
162 0% 0%  
163 0% 0%  
164 0% 0%  
165 0% 0%  
166 0% 0%  
167 0% 0%  
168 0% 0%  
169 0% 0%  
170 0% 0%  
171 0% 0%  
172 0% 0%  
173 0% 0%  
174 0% 0%  
175 0% 0%  
176 0% 0%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.5% 99.3%  
72 0.8% 98.9%  
73 2% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 3% 94%  
76 5% 92%  
77 6% 87%  
78 7% 81%  
79 7% 75%  
80 8% 68%  
81 7% 60%  
82 6% 53% Median
83 6% 47%  
84 7% 41%  
85 5% 34%  
86 4% 30%  
87 6% 26%  
88 4% 20%  
89 4% 15%  
90 3% 11%  
91 2% 8%  
92 2% 6%  
93 1.3% 3%  
94 0.8% 2% Last Result
95 0.5% 1.2%  
96 0.2% 0.7%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 99.6%  
64 0.6% 99.2%  
65 0.9% 98.6%  
66 1.3% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 3% 94%  
69 4% 91%  
70 5% 87%  
71 6% 82%  
72 6% 76%  
73 7% 70%  
74 8% 63%  
75 7% 54% Median
76 7% 47%  
77 7% 40%  
78 7% 33%  
79 6% 26%  
80 5% 20% Last Result
81 4% 15%  
82 3% 11%  
83 2% 8%  
84 2% 6%  
85 1.4% 4%  
86 0.9% 2%  
87 0.6% 2%  
88 0.4% 0.9%  
89 0.2% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.7%  
43 0.7% 99.4%  
44 1.0% 98.7%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 96%  
47 4% 93%  
48 5% 90%  
49 6% 84%  
50 8% 78%  
51 9% 70%  
52 8% 61%  
53 10% 53% Median
54 9% 43%  
55 8% 34%  
56 6% 26%  
57 6% 19%  
58 5% 14%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6%  
61 1.4% 4%  
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.5% 99.7%  
26 1.0% 99.2%  
27 2% 98%  
28 4% 96%  
29 7% 92%  
30 8% 85%  
31 10% 76%  
32 13% 67%  
33 12% 54% Median
34 11% 42%  
35 8% 31%  
36 8% 22%  
37 6% 14%  
38 4% 9%  
39 2% 5%  
40 1.3% 3%  
41 0.8% 1.5%  
42 0.4% 0.7%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 499 100% 489–508 486–511 484–513 479–517
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 439 100% 428–449 425–452 423–454 418–459
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 413 100% 402–423 399–426 397–428 392–434
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke 289 390 100% 380–401 377–403 374–406 369–411
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 371 98% 361–382 358–385 355–387 350–392
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 364 86% 353–374 350–377 347–379 342–385
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 220 337 2% 327–348 324–351 322–353 317–359
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 319 0% 308–329 306–332 303–335 298–340
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 296 0% 286–306 283–309 280–312 276–317
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 278 0% 268–288 265–290 262–294 257–298
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 256 0% 245–265 242–268 240–271 235–275
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 243 0% 233–254 231–256 230–258 223–264
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 236 0% 226–246 223–249 221–251 216–256

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 99.9%  
475 0% 99.9%  
476 0.1% 99.9%  
477 0.1% 99.8%  
478 0.1% 99.7%  
479 0.2% 99.6%  
480 0.3% 99.4%  
481 0.4% 99.2%  
482 0.4% 98.7%  
483 0.7% 98%  
484 0.7% 98%  
485 1.4% 97%  
486 1.3% 95%  
487 2% 94%  
488 2% 93%  
489 2% 91%  
490 3% 88%  
491 3% 85%  
492 4% 83%  
493 3% 79%  
494 4% 75%  
495 4% 71%  
496 5% 67%  
497 5% 62%  
498 5% 56%  
499 7% 52% Median
500 5% 45%  
501 5% 40%  
502 4% 34%  
503 5% 30%  
504 4% 25%  
505 4% 20%  
506 3% 17%  
507 3% 14%  
508 2% 11%  
509 2% 9%  
510 1.5% 7%  
511 1.3% 5%  
512 0.9% 4%  
513 1.0% 3%  
514 0.4% 2%  
515 0.6% 2%  
516 0.3% 1.1%  
517 0.3% 0.8%  
518 0.1% 0.5%  
519 0.1% 0.3%  
520 0.1% 0.2%  
521 0% 0.1%  
522 0% 0.1%  
523 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.9%  
416 0.1% 99.8%  
417 0.1% 99.7%  
418 0.2% 99.6%  
419 0.3% 99.4%  
420 0.3% 99.1%  
421 0.5% 98.8%  
422 0.7% 98%  
423 0.8% 98%  
424 0.9% 97%  
425 1.1% 96%  
426 1.4% 95%  
427 2% 93%  
428 2% 92%  
429 2% 89%  
430 2% 87%  
431 3% 85%  
432 4% 82%  
433 4% 78%  
434 4% 74%  
435 5% 70%  
436 3% 65%  
437 6% 62%  
438 4% 56%  
439 5% 52% Median
440 4% 47%  
441 5% 43%  
442 5% 38%  
443 5% 33%  
444 4% 28%  
445 4% 24%  
446 3% 20%  
447 4% 17%  
448 3% 13%  
449 2% 10%  
450 1.4% 8%  
451 1.3% 7%  
452 1.3% 5%  
453 1.2% 4%  
454 0.7% 3%  
455 0.5% 2%  
456 0.3% 1.5%  
457 0.4% 1.2%  
458 0.2% 0.8%  
459 0.2% 0.6%  
460 0.1% 0.4%  
461 0.1% 0.3%  
462 0% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100% Last Result
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0.1% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0.1% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.8%  
391 0.1% 99.7%  
392 0.2% 99.6%  
393 0.3% 99.4%  
394 0.3% 99.1%  
395 0.4% 98.9%  
396 0.8% 98%  
397 0.7% 98%  
398 0.7% 97%  
399 1.3% 96%  
400 1.1% 95%  
401 2% 94%  
402 2% 92%  
403 2% 90%  
404 2% 88%  
405 4% 85%  
406 3% 81%  
407 4% 78%  
408 4% 75%  
409 5% 70%  
410 6% 66%  
411 4% 60%  
412 3% 56%  
413 5% 52% Median
414 5% 47%  
415 6% 42%  
416 4% 36%  
417 4% 32%  
418 3% 27%  
419 5% 24%  
420 3% 19%  
421 3% 17%  
422 2% 13%  
423 2% 11%  
424 2% 9%  
425 2% 7%  
426 0.9% 5%  
427 1.1% 4%  
428 0.8% 3%  
429 0.7% 2%  
430 0.3% 2%  
431 0.4% 1.3%  
432 0.3% 0.9%  
433 0.2% 0.7%  
434 0.2% 0.5%  
435 0.1% 0.3%  
436 0.1% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0.1% 99.9%  
367 0.1% 99.8%  
368 0.1% 99.7%  
369 0.1% 99.6%  
370 0.2% 99.5%  
371 0.3% 99.2%  
372 0.5% 98.9%  
373 0.4% 98%  
374 0.6% 98%  
375 1.0% 97%  
376 1.0% 96%  
377 1.1% 95%  
378 2% 94%  
379 2% 93%  
380 2% 91%  
381 3% 89%  
382 3% 86%  
383 4% 83%  
384 3% 80%  
385 4% 76%  
386 4% 73%  
387 6% 69%  
388 5% 63%  
389 5% 59%  
390 6% 54%  
391 3% 48% Median
392 4% 44%  
393 5% 40%  
394 5% 35%  
395 5% 30%  
396 3% 25%  
397 4% 22%  
398 2% 18%  
399 3% 16%  
400 2% 13%  
401 2% 10%  
402 3% 9%  
403 1.1% 6%  
404 1.3% 5%  
405 1.0% 4%  
406 0.5% 3%  
407 0.5% 2%  
408 0.3% 2%  
409 0.6% 1.4%  
410 0.2% 0.8%  
411 0.2% 0.6%  
412 0.1% 0.4%  
413 0.1% 0.3%  
414 0% 0.2%  
415 0.1% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.7%  
350 0.1% 99.6%  
351 0.3% 99.5%  
352 0.2% 99.2%  
353 0.5% 99.0%  
354 0.4% 98%  
355 0.6% 98% Majority
356 1.1% 97%  
357 1.0% 96%  
358 0.7% 95%  
359 2% 95%  
360 2% 93%  
361 3% 91%  
362 2% 88%  
363 3% 86%  
364 2% 83%  
365 5% 81%  
366 5% 76%  
367 4% 71%  
368 4% 67%  
369 6% 62%  
370 5% 57%  
371 4% 52% Median
372 3% 48%  
373 6% 45%  
374 5% 39%  
375 4% 34%  
376 3% 30%  
377 4% 27%  
378 3% 23%  
379 4% 19%  
380 2% 15%  
381 2% 13%  
382 3% 11%  
383 1.4% 8%  
384 1.4% 7%  
385 2% 6%  
386 0.8% 4%  
387 0.9% 3%  
388 0.6% 2%  
389 0.5% 2%  
390 0.4% 1.3%  
391 0.2% 0.9%  
392 0.3% 0.7%  
393 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
394 0.1% 0.3%  
395 0.1% 0.2%  
396 0.1% 0.2%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
337 0% 100%  
338 0.1% 99.9%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0.1% 99.8%  
341 0.1% 99.7%  
342 0.2% 99.6%  
343 0.3% 99.5%  
344 0.2% 99.2%  
345 0.4% 99.0%  
346 0.5% 98.5%  
347 0.7% 98%  
348 0.8% 97%  
349 1.0% 97%  
350 1.3% 96%  
351 1.1% 94%  
352 2% 93%  
353 2% 91%  
354 3% 89%  
355 4% 86% Majority
356 3% 82%  
357 3% 80%  
358 4% 77%  
359 4% 73%  
360 4% 69%  
361 6% 66%  
362 4% 60%  
363 6% 56%  
364 5% 50% Median
365 5% 45%  
366 4% 40%  
367 5% 36%  
368 4% 31%  
369 3% 26%  
370 3% 24%  
371 4% 20%  
372 3% 17%  
373 2% 13%  
374 3% 11%  
375 2% 8%  
376 1.2% 7%  
377 2% 5%  
378 1.1% 4%  
379 0.6% 3%  
380 0.5% 2%  
381 0.3% 2%  
382 0.4% 1.3%  
383 0.2% 0.9%  
384 0.2% 0.7%  
385 0.2% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.3%  
387 0.1% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 100%  
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 100%  
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 100%  
262 0% 100%  
263 0% 100%  
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 100%  
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.2% 99.7%  
317 0.2% 99.5%  
318 0.4% 99.3%  
319 0.5% 98.9%  
320 0.4% 98%  
321 0.4% 98%  
322 0.6% 98%  
323 0.9% 97%  
324 1.3% 96%  
325 2% 95%  
326 2% 93%  
327 3% 91%  
328 2% 88%  
329 2% 86%  
330 2% 84%  
331 3% 81%  
332 3% 78%  
333 5% 75%  
334 7% 70%  
335 5% 63%  
336 7% 59%  
337 3% 52%  
338 3% 49% Median
339 4% 46%  
340 5% 42%  
341 4% 37%  
342 6% 32%  
343 4% 26%  
344 4% 22%  
345 2% 18%  
346 3% 15%  
347 2% 13%  
348 2% 11%  
349 1.4% 9%  
350 2% 8%  
351 2% 6%  
352 1.1% 4%  
353 0.7% 3%  
354 0.3% 2%  
355 0.4% 2% Majority
356 0.4% 1.4%  
357 0.3% 1.0%  
358 0.2% 0.8%  
359 0.2% 0.5%  
360 0.2% 0.4%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.2% 99.6%  
299 0.2% 99.4%  
300 0.6% 99.2%  
301 0.3% 98.6%  
302 0.5% 98%  
303 0.5% 98%  
304 1.0% 97%  
305 1.3% 96%  
306 1.1% 95%  
307 3% 94%  
308 2% 91%  
309 2% 90%  
310 3% 87%  
311 2% 84%  
312 4% 82%  
313 3% 78%  
314 5% 75%  
315 5% 70%  
316 5% 65%  
317 4% 60%  
318 3% 56% Median
319 6% 52%  
320 5% 46%  
321 5% 41%  
322 6% 37%  
323 4% 31%  
324 4% 27%  
325 3% 24%  
326 4% 20%  
327 3% 17%  
328 3% 14%  
329 2% 11%  
330 2% 9%  
331 2% 7%  
332 1.1% 6%  
333 1.0% 5%  
334 1.0% 4%  
335 0.6% 3%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.5% 2%  
338 0.3% 1.1%  
339 0.2% 0.8%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  
347 0% 0%  
348 0% 0%  
349 0% 0%  
350 0% 0%  
351 0% 0%  
352 0% 0%  
353 0% 0%  
354 0% 0%  
355 0% 0% Majority
356 0% 0%  
357 0% 0%  
358 0% 0%  
359 0% 0%  
360 0% 0%  
361 0% 0%  
362 0% 0%  
363 0% 0%  
364 0% 0%  
365 0% 0%  
366 0% 0%  
367 0% 0%  
368 0% 0%  
369 0% 0%  
370 0% 0%  
371 0% 0%  
372 0% 0%  
373 0% 0%  
374 0% 0%  
375 0% 0%  
376 0% 0%  
377 0% 0%  
378 0% 0%  
379 0% 0%  
380 0% 0%  
381 0% 0%  
382 0% 0%  
383 0% 0%  
384 0% 0%  
385 0% 0%  
386 0% 0%  
387 0% 0%  
388 0% 0%  
389 0% 0%  
390 0% 0%  
391 0% 0%  
392 0% 0%  
393 0% 0%  
394 0% 0%  
395 0% 0%  
396 0% 0%  
397 0% 0%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0%  
400 0% 0%  
401 0% 0%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
270 0% 100%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0.1% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.2% 99.5%  
277 0.3% 99.3%  
278 0.4% 99.0%  
279 0.4% 98.6%  
280 0.7% 98%  
281 0.7% 97%  
282 2% 97%  
283 1.4% 95%  
284 1.1% 94%  
285 2% 92%  
286 3% 90%  
287 2% 88%  
288 3% 86%  
289 4% 82%  
290 3% 78%  
291 3% 75%  
292 6% 72%  
293 4% 67%  
294 5% 63%  
295 5% 58%  
296 5% 53% Median
297 5% 47%  
298 5% 43%  
299 4% 38%  
300 4% 34%  
301 4% 29%  
302 3% 25%  
303 4% 22%  
304 3% 18%  
305 4% 15%  
306 2% 11%  
307 2% 9%  
308 1.5% 7%  
309 1.2% 6%  
310 0.9% 5%  
311 1.0% 4%  
312 0.6% 3%  
313 0.5% 2% Last Result
314 0.4% 2%  
315 0.3% 1.2%  
316 0.2% 0.8%  
317 0.2% 0.6%  
318 0.1% 0.4%  
319 0.1% 0.3%  
320 0.1% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
233 0% 100% Last Result
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 100%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.2% 99.6%  
258 0.2% 99.5%  
259 0.3% 99.3%  
260 0.5% 98.9%  
261 0.5% 98%  
262 0.6% 98%  
263 0.8% 97%  
264 1.5% 97%  
265 1.5% 95%  
266 2% 94%  
267 2% 92%  
268 2% 90%  
269 2% 88%  
270 5% 86%  
271 3% 81%  
272 4% 78%  
273 3% 74%  
274 4% 70%  
275 4% 66%  
276 6% 62%  
277 5% 56%  
278 5% 51% Median
279 4% 45%  
280 5% 41%  
281 4% 37%  
282 5% 32%  
283 5% 27%  
284 4% 23%  
285 3% 19%  
286 2% 16%  
287 2% 14%  
288 2% 11%  
289 2% 9%  
290 2% 7%  
291 0.8% 5%  
292 1.0% 4%  
293 0.5% 3%  
294 0.7% 3%  
295 0.6% 2%  
296 0.3% 1.2%  
297 0.2% 0.9%  
298 0.2% 0.7%  
299 0.1% 0.4%  
300 0.1% 0.3%  
301 0.1% 0.2%  
302 0.1% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
222 0% 100% Last Result
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0.2% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.5%  
236 0.3% 99.4%  
237 0.3% 99.2%  
238 0.4% 98.8%  
239 0.7% 98%  
240 0.7% 98%  
241 1.0% 97%  
242 1.1% 96%  
243 1.2% 95%  
244 2% 94%  
245 2% 91%  
246 3% 89%  
247 3% 87%  
248 4% 84%  
249 4% 80%  
250 4% 77%  
251 4% 72%  
252 5% 68%  
253 3% 64%  
254 6% 60%  
255 4% 54%  
256 7% 50% Median
257 3% 43%  
258 5% 40%  
259 6% 35%  
260 3% 29%  
261 5% 26%  
262 3% 20%  
263 2% 17%  
264 3% 15%  
265 3% 12%  
266 2% 9%  
267 1.3% 7%  
268 2% 6%  
269 1.2% 4%  
270 0.7% 3%  
271 0.8% 3%  
272 0.4% 2%  
273 0.5% 1.4%  
274 0.2% 0.9%  
275 0.2% 0.7%  
276 0.2% 0.5%  
277 0.1% 0.3%  
278 0.1% 0.2%  
279 0.1% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0% 99.9%  
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.9%  
223 0.3% 99.8%  
224 0.4% 99.5%  
225 0.4% 99.1%  
226 0.2% 98.7%  
227 0.1% 98.5%  
228 0.1% 98%  
229 0.4% 98%  
230 2% 98%  
231 2% 96%  
232 4% 94%  
233 3% 90%  
234 1.1% 87%  
235 0.4% 86%  
236 0.6% 86%  
237 1.4% 85%  
238 7% 84%  
239 8% 77%  
240 8% 69%  
241 8% 61%  
242 2% 53%  
243 0.7% 51% Median
244 1.0% 50%  
245 3% 49%  
246 7% 46%  
247 8% 38%  
248 8% 30%  
249 5% 22%  
250 2% 17%  
251 0.5% 15%  
252 0.5% 15%  
253 1.5% 14%  
254 3% 13%  
255 3% 9%  
256 3% 7%  
257 1.3% 4%  
258 0.6% 3%  
259 0.1% 2%  
260 0.1% 2%  
261 0.2% 2%  
262 0.4% 1.5%  
263 0.4% 1.1%  
264 0.4% 0.7%  
265 0.1% 0.3%  
266 0% 0.1%  
267 0% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0%  
327 0% 0%  
328 0% 0%  
329 0% 0%  
330 0% 0%  
331 0% 0%  
332 0% 0%  
333 0% 0%  
334 0% 0%  
335 0% 0%  
336 0% 0%  
337 0% 0%  
338 0% 0%  
339 0% 0%  
340 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
211 0% 100%  
212 0% 99.9%  
213 0.1% 99.9%  
214 0.1% 99.8%  
215 0.1% 99.8%  
216 0.2% 99.7%  
217 0.2% 99.5%  
218 0.3% 99.3%  
219 0.5% 99.0%  
220 0.6% 98%  
221 0.7% 98%  
222 1.1% 97%  
223 1.3% 96%  
224 1.0% 95%  
225 2% 94%  
226 3% 92%  
227 3% 89%  
228 2% 87%  
229 3% 84%  
230 5% 81%  
231 3% 76%  
232 4% 73%  
233 6% 69%  
234 4% 63%  
235 5% 59%  
236 5% 54% Median
237 5% 49%  
238 4% 43%  
239 5% 39%  
240 6% 34%  
241 3% 28%  
242 3% 25%  
243 5% 22%  
244 3% 17%  
245 2% 14%  
246 3% 12%  
247 2% 9%  
248 2% 7%  
249 1.4% 6%  
250 1.2% 4%  
251 0.9% 3%  
252 0.5% 2%  
253 0.5% 2%  
254 0.6% 1.4%  
255 0.2% 0.8%  
256 0.2% 0.6%  
257 0.2% 0.5%  
258 0.1% 0.3%  
259 0.1% 0.2%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0%  
263 0% 0%  
264 0% 0%  
265 0% 0%  
266 0% 0%  
267 0% 0%  
268 0% 0%  
269 0% 0%  
270 0% 0%  
271 0% 0%  
272 0% 0%  
273 0% 0%  
274 0% 0%  
275 0% 0%  
276 0% 0%  
277 0% 0%  
278 0% 0%  
279 0% 0%  
280 0% 0%  
281 0% 0%  
282 0% 0%  
283 0% 0%  
284 0% 0%  
285 0% 0%  
286 0% 0%  
287 0% 0%  
288 0% 0%  
289 0% 0%  
290 0% 0%  
291 0% 0%  
292 0% 0%  
293 0% 0%  
294 0% 0%  
295 0% 0%  
296 0% 0%  
297 0% 0%  
298 0% 0%  
299 0% 0%  
300 0% 0%  
301 0% 0%  
302 0% 0%  
303 0% 0%  
304 0% 0%  
305 0% 0%  
306 0% 0%  
307 0% 0%  
308 0% 0%  
309 0% 0%  
310 0% 0%  
311 0% 0%  
312 0% 0%  
313 0% 0%  
314 0% 0%  
315 0% 0%  
316 0% 0%  
317 0% 0%  
318 0% 0%  
319 0% 0%  
320 0% 0%  
321 0% 0%  
322 0% 0%  
323 0% 0%  
324 0% 0%  
325 0% 0%  
326 0% 0% Last Result

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