Opinion Poll by Marc for Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ, 29–31 May 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
![Voting Intentions Graph with voting intentions not yet produced](2024-05-31-Marc.png)
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Νέα Δημοκρατία (EPP) |
22.7% |
34.5% |
32.5–36.6% |
32.0–37.2% |
31.5–37.8% |
30.5–38.8% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς (GUE/NGL) |
26.6% |
16.9% |
15.4–18.7% |
15.0–19.1% |
14.6–19.6% |
13.9–20.4% |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής (S&D) |
0.0% |
11.9% |
10.6–13.4% |
10.3–13.9% |
10.0–14.3% |
9.4–15.0% |
Ελληνική Λύση (ECR) |
0.0% |
8.4% |
7.3–9.7% |
7.0–10.1% |
6.8–10.4% |
6.3–11.1% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας (NI) |
6.1% |
7.3% |
6.3–8.5% |
6.0–8.9% |
5.7–9.2% |
5.3–9.8% |
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας (*) |
0.0% |
4.2% |
3.4–5.2% |
3.2–5.5% |
3.1–5.7% |
2.7–6.3% |
Δημοκρατικό Πατριωτικό Κίνημα ΝΙΚΗ (NI) |
0.0% |
3.6% |
2.9–4.6% |
2.7–4.9% |
2.6–5.1% |
2.3–5.6% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
2.7% |
2.1–3.6% |
2.0–3.8% |
1.8–4.0% |
1.6–4.5% |
Φωνή Λογικής (*) |
0.0% |
2.6% |
2.0–3.4% |
1.9–3.7% |
1.8–3.9% |
1.5–4.3% |
Νέα Αριστερά (GUE/NGL) |
0.0% |
2.5% |
1.9–3.3% |
1.8–3.6% |
1.7–3.8% |
1.4–4.2% |
Δημοκράτες (RE) |
0.0% |
2.3% |
1.7–3.1% |
1.6–3.3% |
1.5–3.5% |
1.2–3.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
![Seats Graph with seats not yet produced](2024-05-31-Marc-seats.png)
![Seating Plan Graph with seating plan not yet produced](2024-05-31-Marc-seating-plan.png)
Confidence Intervals
Νέα Δημοκρατία (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία (EPP) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-31-Marc-seats-pmf-νέαδημοκρατίαepp.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
6 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
7 |
44% |
99.6% |
|
8 |
55% |
55% |
Median |
9 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-31-Marc-seats-pmf-συνασπισμόςριζοσπαστικήςαριστεράςguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
3 |
26% |
100% |
|
4 |
72% |
74% |
Median |
5 |
2% |
2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής (S&D) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-31-Marc-seats-pmf-κίνημααλλαγήςsd.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
32% |
100% |
|
3 |
68% |
68% |
Median |
4 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
Ελληνική Λύση (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση (ECR) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-31-Marc-seats-pmf-ελληνικήλύσηecr.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
7% |
100% |
|
2 |
91% |
93% |
Median |
3 |
2% |
2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-31-Marc-seats-pmf-κομμουνιστικόκόμμαελλάδαςni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
31% |
100% |
|
2 |
69% |
69% |
Last Result, Median |
3 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας (*) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-31-Marc-seats-pmf-πλεύσηελευθερίας.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
1.5% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
98% |
98.5% |
Median |
2 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
Δημοκρατικό Πατριωτικό Κίνημα ΝΙΚΗ (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Δημοκρατικό Πατριωτικό Κίνημα ΝΙΚΗ (NI) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-31-Marc-seats-pmf-δημοκρατικόπατριωτικόκίνημανικηni.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
11% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
89% |
89% |
Median |
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-31-Marc-seats-pmf-μέτωποευρωπαϊκήςρεαλιστικήςανυπακοήςguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
66% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
34% |
34% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Φωνή Λογικής (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Φωνή Λογικής (*) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-31-Marc-seats-pmf-φωνήλογικής.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
81% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
19% |
19% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Νέα Αριστερά (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Αριστερά (GUE/NGL) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-31-Marc-seats-pmf-νέααριστεράguengl.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
73% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
27% |
27% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Δημοκράτες (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Δημοκράτες (RE) page.
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-31-Marc-seats-pmf-δημοκράτεςre.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
83% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
17% |
17% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
![Coalitions Seats Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced](2024-05-31-Marc-coalitions-seats.png)
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Νέα Δημοκρατία (EPP) |
5 |
8 |
0% |
7–8 |
7–8 |
7–8 |
7–9 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία (EPP)
![Seats Probability Mass Function Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced](2024-05-31-Marc-coalitions-seats-pmf-νδ.png)
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
6 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
7 |
44% |
99.6% |
|
8 |
55% |
55% |
Median |
9 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Marc
- Commissioner(s): Πρώτο ΘΕΜΑ
- Fieldwork period: 29–31 May 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 880
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.61%