Opinion Poll by MRB for Open TV, 13–18 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία (EPP) | 0.0% | 28.0% | 26.4–29.7% | 25.9–30.1% | 25.5–30.6% | 24.8–31.4% |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.5% | 14.2–16.9% | 13.9–17.3% | 13.6–17.6% | 13.0–18.3% |
| Ελληνική Λύση (ECR) | 0.0% | 10.6% | 9.6–11.8% | 9.3–12.2% | 9.0–12.5% | 8.5–13.1% |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας (NI) | 0.0% | 10.1% | 9.1–11.3% | 8.8–11.7% | 8.6–12.0% | 8.1–12.5% |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.0–10.1% | 7.8–10.5% | 7.5–10.7% | 7.1–11.3% |
| Πλεύση Ελευθερίας (NI) | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.5–6.1% | 4.3–6.4% | 4.1–6.6% | 3.7–7.0% |
| Φωνή Λογικής (PfE) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.3% | 3.6–5.5% | 3.4–5.8% | 3.1–6.2% |
| Δημοκρατικό Πατριωτικό Κίνημα ΝΙΚΗ (NI) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.7–5.6% |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.3% | 2.8–4.6% | 2.7–4.8% | 2.4–5.2% |
| Νέα Αριστερά (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.2–3.7% | 2.0–3.9% | 1.8–4.3% |
| Σπαρτιάτες (*) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.0–1.8% | 0.9–2.0% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.7–2.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Κίνημα Αλλαγής (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Ελληνική Λύση (ECR) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας (NI) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–3 |
| Πλεύση Ελευθερίας (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Φωνή Λογικής (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Δημοκρατικό Πατριωτικό Κίνημα ΝΙΚΗ (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Νέα Αριστερά (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Σπαρτιάτες (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Δημοκρατία (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 86% | 97% | Median |
| 7 | 11% | 11% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Κίνημα Αλλαγής (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κίνημα Αλλαγής (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 80% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 20% | 20% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Ελληνική Λύση (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ελληνική Λύση (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 89% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 11% | 11% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Κομμουνιστικό Κόμμα Ελλάδας (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 88% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 12% | 12% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 98% | 98.6% | Median |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Πλεύση Ελευθερίας (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Πλεύση Ελευθερίας (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Φωνή Λογικής (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Φωνή Λογικής (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.5% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Δημοκρατικό Πατριωτικό Κίνημα ΝΙΚΗ (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Δημοκρατικό Πατριωτικό Κίνημα ΝΙΚΗ (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Μέτωπο Ευρωπαϊκής Ρεαλιστικής Ανυπακοής (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 93% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Νέα Αριστερά (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Νέα Αριστερά (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 49% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 51% | 51% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Σπαρτιάτες (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Σπαρτιάτες (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Νέα Δημοκρατία (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Φωνή Λογικής (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Νέα Δημοκρατία (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 86% | 97% | Median |
| 7 | 11% | 11% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Φωνή Λογικής (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.5% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: MRB
- Commissioner(s): Open TV
- Fieldwork period: 13–18 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1233
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.33%