Opinion Poll by SKDS for Latvijas Televīzija, 1–31 March 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) 14.2% 17.1% 15.9–18.4% 15.5–18.7% 15.3–19.1% 14.7–19.7%
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) 46.2% 16.6% 15.4–17.9% 15.1–18.3% 14.8–18.6% 14.3–19.2%
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) 13.0% 10.1% 9.2–11.2% 8.9–11.5% 8.7–11.7% 8.2–12.3%
PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 9.6% 8.7–10.6% 8.4–10.9% 8.2–11.2% 7.8–11.7%
Latvijas attīstībai (RE) 0.0% 8.9% 8.0–9.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.6–10.5% 7.2–11.0%
Latvija pirmajā vietā (NI) 0.0% 8.2% 7.3–9.1% 7.1–9.4% 6.9–9.7% 6.5–10.2%
Stabilitātei! (NI) 0.0% 6.4% 5.6–7.3% 5.4–7.5% 5.2–7.7% 4.9–8.2%
Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) 2.5% 6.1% 5.4–7.0% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.4% 4.7–7.9%
Suverēnā vara (*) 0.0% 3.8% 3.2–4.5% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.2%
Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) 0.0% 3.5% 3.0–4.2% 2.8–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.9%
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) 8.3% 3.4% 2.8–4.1% 2.7–4.3% 2.6–4.4% 2.3–4.8%
Centra partija (NI) 0.0% 2.1% 1.7–2.7% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.3–3.3%
Apvienība Jaunlatvieši (*) 0.0% 1.9% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0%
Kustība Par! (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–2.0% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) 4 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) 1 1 1 1 1 1
PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Latvijas attīstībai (RE) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Latvija pirmajā vietā (NI) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Stabilitātei! (NI) 0 1 1 1 1 0–1
Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Suverēnā vara (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) 1 0 0 0 0 0
Centra partija (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Apvienība Jaunlatvieši (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kustība Par! (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 51% 100% Last Result, Median
2 49% 49%  
3 0% 0%  

Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 14% 100%  
2 86% 86% Median
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0% Last Result

Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Latvijas attīstībai (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas attīstībai (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Latvija pirmajā vietā (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvija pirmajā vietā (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Stabilitātei! (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stabilitātei! (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 98% 98% Median
2 0% 0%  

Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100% Last Result
1 67% 67% Median
2 0% 0%  

Suverēnā vara (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suverēnā vara (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0% Last Result

Centra partija (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centra partija (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Apvienība Jaunlatvieši (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Apvienība Jaunlatvieši (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Kustība Par! (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kustība Par! (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) 1 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D) 1 1 0% 1 1 1 1

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 51% 100% Last Result, Median
2 49% 49%  
3 0% 0%  

PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Sociāldemokrātiskā partija “Saskaņa” (S&D)

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations