Opinion Poll by Latvijas Fakti, 1–23 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) | 0.0% | 23.7% | 21.7–25.9% | 21.2–26.5% | 20.7–27.1% | 19.8–28.1% |
| Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) | 0.0% | 12.9% | 11.4–14.7% | 10.9–15.2% | 10.6–15.6% | 9.9–16.5% |
| PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 12.3% | 10.8–14.1% | 10.4–14.5% | 10.0–15.0% | 9.4–15.9% |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) | 0.0% | 10.5% | 9.2–12.2% | 8.8–12.7% | 8.5–13.1% | 7.8–13.9% |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) | 0.0% | 8.9% | 7.7–10.5% | 7.3–10.9% | 7.0–11.3% | 6.4–12.1% |
| Suverēnā vara–Apvienība Jaunlatvieši (*) | 0.0% | 8.8% | 7.5–10.3% | 7.2–10.8% | 6.9–11.2% | 6.3–11.9% |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.3% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.7–8.4% | 4.3–9.1% |
| Stabilitātei! (NI) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.3–4.6% | 2.1–4.8% | 1.8–5.4% |
| Mēs mainām noteikumus (*) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.3–4.6% | 2.1–4.8% | 1.8–5.4% |
| Latvijas attīstībai (RE) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.3–4.6% | 2.1–4.8% | 1.8–5.4% |
| Saskaņas Centrs (S&D) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.8–3.9% | 1.7–4.1% | 1.4–4.6% |
| Austošā Saule Latvijai (*) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.8–2.7% | 0.6–3.1% |
| Gobzema saraksts (*) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.8–2.7% | 0.6–3.1% |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–1.9% | 0.3–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Suverēnā vara–Apvienība Jaunlatvieši (*) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Stabilitātei! (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Mēs mainām noteikumus (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Latvijas attīstībai (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Saskaņas Centrs (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austošā Saule Latvijai (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gobzema saraksts (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 57% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 43% | 43% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 61% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 39% | 39% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 82% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 18% | 18% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.3% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Suverēnā vara–Apvienība Jaunlatvieši (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Suverēnā vara–Apvienība Jaunlatvieši (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā VIENOTĪBA (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 95% | 95% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Stabilitātei! (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Stabilitātei! (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Mēs mainām noteikumus (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mēs mainām noteikumus (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.3% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Latvijas attīstībai (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas attīstībai (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Saskaņas Centrs (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Saskaņas Centrs (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Austošā Saule Latvijai (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Austošā Saule Latvijai (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Gobzema saraksts (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Gobzema saraksts (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Latvija pirmajā vietā (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 61% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 39% | 39% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
PROGRESĪVIE (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 82% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 18% | 18% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 100% | 100% | Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Latvijas Fakti
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–23 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 683
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.82%