Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 30 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | PL | PN | AD | PD | MPM | AD+PD | IE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 May 2019 | General Election | 53.4% 3 |
40.0% 3 |
2.9% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
| N/A | Poll Average | 47–56% 3–4 |
39–48% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
2–6% 0 |
| 15–24 April 2024 | MaltaToday | 46–55% 3–4 |
40–49% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
| 1–13 April 2024 | Esprimi Times of Malta |
47–56% 3–4 |
39–47% 2–3 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
2–6% 0 |
| 25 May 2019 | General Election | 53.4% 3 |
40.0% 3 |
2.9% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the European Parliament (95% confidence interval)
- PL: Partit Laburista (S&D)
- PN: Partit Nazzjonalista (EPP)
- AD: Alternattiva Demokratika (Greens/EFA)
- PD: Partit Demokratiku (RE)
- MPM: Moviment Patrijotti Maltin (ID)
- AD+PD: Alternattiva Demokratika–Partit Demokratiku (Greens/EFA)
- IE: Imperium Europa (*)
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit Laburista (S&D) | 53.4% | 51.1% | 48.1–54.0% | 47.3–54.8% | 46.6–55.5% | 45.1–56.9% |
| Partit Nazzjonalista (EPP) | 40.0% | 43.7% | 40.8–46.7% | 40.0–47.5% | 39.3–48.2% | 38.0–49.7% |
| Alternattiva Demokratika (Greens/EFA) | 2.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Partit Demokratiku (RE) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Moviment Patrijotti Maltin (ID) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alternattiva Demokratika–Partit Demokratiku (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Imperium Europa (*) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 2.8–4.9% | 2.5–5.2% | 2.3–5.6% | 2.0–6.2% |
Partit Laburista (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Laburista (S&D) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42.5–43.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 43.5–44.5% | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44.5–45.5% | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 45.5–46.5% | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 46.5–47.5% | 4% | 98% | |
| 47.5–48.5% | 7% | 94% | |
| 48.5–49.5% | 12% | 87% | |
| 49.5–50.5% | 16% | 75% | |
| 50.5–51.5% | 17% | 59% | Median |
| 51.5–52.5% | 16% | 42% | |
| 52.5–53.5% | 12% | 26% | Last Result |
| 53.5–54.5% | 8% | 14% | |
| 54.5–55.5% | 4% | 6% | |
| 55.5–56.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 56.5–57.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 57.5–58.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 58.5–59.5% | 0% | 0% |
Partit Nazzjonalista (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Nazzjonalista (EPP) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35.5–36.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 36.5–37.5% | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37.5–38.5% | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 38.5–39.5% | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 39.5–40.5% | 5% | 97% | Last Result |
| 40.5–41.5% | 9% | 92% | |
| 41.5–42.5% | 14% | 83% | |
| 42.5–43.5% | 17% | 69% | |
| 43.5–44.5% | 17% | 53% | Median |
| 44.5–45.5% | 15% | 35% | |
| 45.5–46.5% | 10% | 21% | |
| 46.5–47.5% | 6% | 11% | |
| 47.5–48.5% | 3% | 5% | |
| 48.5–49.5% | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 49.5–50.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 50.5–51.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 51.5–52.5% | 0% | 0% |
Imperium Europa (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Imperium Europa (*) page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 5% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 37% | 95% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 41% | 58% | Median |
| 4.5–5.5% | 14% | 17% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 2% | 3% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit Laburista (S&D) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Partit Nazzjonalista (EPP) | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Alternattiva Demokratika (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Partit Demokratiku (RE) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Moviment Patrijotti Maltin (ID) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Alternattiva Demokratika–Partit Demokratiku (Greens/EFA) | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Imperium Europa (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partit Laburista (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Laburista (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 8% | 8% | Majority |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Nazzjonalista (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Nazzjonalista (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 92% | 92% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Alternattiva Demokratika (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternattiva Demokratika (Greens/EFA) page.
Partit Demokratiku (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demokratiku (RE) page.
Moviment Patrijotti Maltin (ID)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Moviment Patrijotti Maltin (ID) page.
Alternattiva Demokratika–Partit Demokratiku (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternattiva Demokratika–Partit Demokratiku (Greens/EFA) page.
Imperium Europa (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Imperium Europa (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit Laburista (S&D) | 3 | 3 | 8% | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Partit Nazzjonalista (EPP) | 3 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Alternattiva Demokratika (Greens/EFA) – Alternattiva Demokratika–Partit Demokratiku (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Imperium Europa (*) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moviment Patrijotti Maltin (ID) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partit Demokratiku (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partit Laburista (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 8% | 8% | Majority |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Nazzjonalista (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 92% | 92% | Last Result, Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Alternattiva Demokratika (Greens/EFA) – Alternattiva Demokratika–Partit Demokratiku (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Imperium Europa (*)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Moviment Patrijotti Maltin (ID)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partit Demokratiku (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 2
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 1,048,576
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 3,145,728
- Error estimate: 1.07%