Opinion Poll by Kantar Millward Brown for TVN and TVN24, 19–20 February 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 40.0% | 38.1–42.0% | 37.5–42.6% | 37.0–43.1% | 36.1–44.1% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 16.0% | 14.6–17.5% | 14.2–18.0% | 13.8–18.4% | 13.2–19.1% |
| .Nowoczesna | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.5–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.7% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.7% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 281 | 268–298 | 265–300 | 263–308 | 253–326 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 100 | 94–113 | 92–115 | 86–119 | 82–120 |
| .Nowoczesna | 28 | 36 | 28–43 | 27–50 | 27–52 | 23–59 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 28 | 18–38 | 15–42 | 0–42 | 0–44 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 19 | 0–24 | 0–25 | 0–29 | 0–31 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 235 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0% | 100% | |
| 237 | 0% | 100% | |
| 238 | 0% | 100% | |
| 239 | 0% | 100% | |
| 240 | 0% | 100% | |
| 241 | 0% | 100% | |
| 242 | 0% | 100% | |
| 243 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 244 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 245 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 246 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 247 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 248 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 249 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 250 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 251 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 253 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 254 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 255 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 256 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 258 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 98.5% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 262 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 263 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 265 | 5% | 97% | |
| 266 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 267 | 0.6% | 91% | |
| 268 | 2% | 91% | |
| 269 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 270 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 271 | 3% | 88% | |
| 272 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 273 | 1.5% | 84% | |
| 274 | 1.2% | 83% | |
| 275 | 13% | 82% | |
| 276 | 15% | 68% | |
| 277 | 0.9% | 53% | |
| 278 | 0.2% | 52% | |
| 279 | 0.2% | 52% | |
| 280 | 0.5% | 52% | |
| 281 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 282 | 1.2% | 43% | |
| 283 | 2% | 42% | |
| 284 | 2% | 40% | |
| 285 | 2% | 38% | |
| 286 | 0.9% | 36% | |
| 287 | 1.1% | 36% | |
| 288 | 1.2% | 34% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 33% | |
| 290 | 2% | 33% | |
| 291 | 0.5% | 31% | |
| 292 | 1.0% | 31% | |
| 293 | 5% | 30% | |
| 294 | 1.0% | 25% | |
| 295 | 0.8% | 24% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 23% | |
| 297 | 7% | 23% | |
| 298 | 8% | 16% | |
| 299 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 300 | 2% | 7% | |
| 301 | 0% | 5% | |
| 302 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 303 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 304 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 305 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 306 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 307 | 0% | 3% | |
| 308 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 310 | 0% | 2% | |
| 311 | 0% | 2% | |
| 312 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 313 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 314 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 315 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 316 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 317 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 318 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 319 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 321 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 322 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 323 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 324 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 326 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 327 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 82 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 86 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 88 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 92 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 93 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 94 | 8% | 93% | |
| 95 | 16% | 84% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 69% | |
| 97 | 2% | 68% | |
| 98 | 5% | 66% | |
| 99 | 7% | 61% | |
| 100 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 101 | 4% | 47% | |
| 102 | 10% | 42% | |
| 103 | 1.0% | 33% | |
| 104 | 2% | 32% | |
| 105 | 8% | 30% | |
| 106 | 4% | 22% | |
| 107 | 2% | 18% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 17% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 16% | |
| 111 | 4% | 15% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 113 | 0.8% | 10% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 115 | 5% | 9% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 118 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 119 | 2% | 3% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 25 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98% | |
| 28 | 8% | 95% | Last Result |
| 29 | 3% | 87% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 85% | |
| 31 | 2% | 84% | |
| 32 | 1.1% | 82% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 81% | |
| 34 | 6% | 80% | |
| 35 | 18% | 74% | |
| 36 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 37 | 6% | 44% | |
| 38 | 6% | 37% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 31% | |
| 40 | 14% | 30% | |
| 41 | 2% | 17% | |
| 42 | 1.2% | 15% | |
| 43 | 5% | 14% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 48 | 2% | 7% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 50 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | |
| 3 | 0% | 95% | |
| 4 | 0% | 95% | |
| 5 | 0% | 95% | |
| 6 | 0% | 95% | |
| 7 | 0% | 95% | |
| 8 | 0% | 95% | |
| 9 | 0% | 95% | |
| 10 | 0% | 95% | |
| 11 | 0% | 95% | |
| 12 | 0% | 95% | |
| 13 | 0% | 95% | |
| 14 | 0% | 95% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 18 | 7% | 93% | |
| 19 | 5% | 87% | |
| 20 | 1.2% | 81% | |
| 21 | 3% | 80% | |
| 22 | 8% | 77% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 69% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 68% | |
| 25 | 4% | 68% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 63% | |
| 27 | 3% | 62% | |
| 28 | 11% | 59% | Median |
| 29 | 2% | 48% | |
| 30 | 1.2% | 47% | |
| 31 | 15% | 46% | |
| 32 | 10% | 30% | |
| 33 | 7% | 20% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 13% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 12% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 40 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 41 | 2% | 8% | |
| 42 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 43 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 52% | |
| 2 | 0% | 52% | |
| 3 | 0% | 52% | |
| 4 | 0% | 52% | |
| 5 | 0% | 52% | |
| 6 | 0% | 52% | |
| 7 | 0% | 52% | |
| 8 | 0% | 52% | |
| 9 | 0% | 52% | |
| 10 | 0% | 52% | |
| 11 | 0% | 52% | |
| 12 | 0% | 52% | |
| 13 | 0% | 52% | |
| 14 | 0% | 52% | |
| 15 | 0% | 52% | |
| 16 | 0% | 52% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.6% | 52% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 51% | |
| 19 | 4% | 51% | Median |
| 20 | 0.2% | 47% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 47% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 47% | |
| 23 | 27% | 46% | |
| 24 | 14% | 20% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 281 | 100% | 268–298 | 265–300 | 263–308 | 253–326 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Lewica Razem – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 182 | 151 | 0% | 130–167 | 130–170 | 128–174 | 120–183 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 182 | 151 | 0% | 130–167 | 130–170 | 128–174 | 120–183 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 182 | 151 | 0% | 130–167 | 130–170 | 128–174 | 120–183 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 138 | 0% | 130–150 | 126–151 | 121–155 | 115–166 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 166 | 138 | 0% | 130–150 | 126–151 | 121–155 | 115–166 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 100 | 0% | 94–113 | 92–115 | 86–119 | 82–120 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 235 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0% | 100% | |
| 237 | 0% | 100% | |
| 238 | 0% | 100% | |
| 239 | 0% | 100% | |
| 240 | 0% | 100% | |
| 241 | 0% | 100% | |
| 242 | 0% | 100% | |
| 243 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 244 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 245 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 246 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 247 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 248 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 249 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 250 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 251 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 253 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 254 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 255 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 256 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 258 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 98.5% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 262 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 263 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 265 | 5% | 97% | |
| 266 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 267 | 0.6% | 91% | |
| 268 | 2% | 91% | |
| 269 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 270 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 271 | 3% | 88% | |
| 272 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 273 | 1.5% | 84% | |
| 274 | 1.2% | 83% | |
| 275 | 13% | 82% | |
| 276 | 15% | 68% | |
| 277 | 0.9% | 53% | |
| 278 | 0.2% | 52% | |
| 279 | 0.2% | 52% | |
| 280 | 0.5% | 52% | |
| 281 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 282 | 1.2% | 43% | |
| 283 | 2% | 42% | |
| 284 | 2% | 40% | |
| 285 | 2% | 38% | |
| 286 | 0.9% | 36% | |
| 287 | 1.1% | 36% | |
| 288 | 1.2% | 34% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 33% | |
| 290 | 2% | 33% | |
| 291 | 0.5% | 31% | |
| 292 | 1.0% | 31% | |
| 293 | 5% | 30% | |
| 294 | 1.0% | 25% | |
| 295 | 0.8% | 24% | |
| 296 | 0.1% | 23% | |
| 297 | 7% | 23% | |
| 298 | 8% | 16% | |
| 299 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 300 | 2% | 7% | |
| 301 | 0% | 5% | |
| 302 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 303 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 304 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 305 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 306 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 307 | 0% | 3% | |
| 308 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 310 | 0% | 2% | |
| 311 | 0% | 2% | |
| 312 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 313 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 314 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 315 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 316 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 317 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 318 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 319 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 320 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 321 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 322 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 323 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 324 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 325 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 326 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 327 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Lewica Razem – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 125 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 128 | 2% | 98% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 130 | 7% | 96% | |
| 131 | 0.6% | 89% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 133 | 0.9% | 89% | |
| 134 | 0.8% | 88% | |
| 135 | 2% | 87% | |
| 136 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 137 | 3% | 84% | |
| 138 | 2% | 81% | |
| 139 | 0.9% | 79% | |
| 140 | 8% | 78% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 70% | |
| 142 | 5% | 70% | |
| 143 | 1.0% | 65% | |
| 144 | 1.1% | 64% | |
| 145 | 1.2% | 63% | |
| 146 | 1.0% | 62% | |
| 147 | 2% | 61% | |
| 148 | 2% | 59% | |
| 149 | 2% | 57% | |
| 150 | 0.7% | 56% | |
| 151 | 5% | 55% | |
| 152 | 0.7% | 50% | |
| 153 | 21% | 49% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 28% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 28% | Median |
| 156 | 0.7% | 27% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 26% | |
| 158 | 2% | 26% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 24% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 23% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 23% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 22% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 22% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 21% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 21% | |
| 166 | 1.2% | 21% | |
| 167 | 10% | 20% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 169 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 170 | 4% | 8% | |
| 171 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0% | 3% | |
| 174 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 125 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 128 | 2% | 98% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 130 | 7% | 96% | |
| 131 | 0.6% | 89% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 133 | 0.9% | 89% | |
| 134 | 0.8% | 88% | |
| 135 | 2% | 87% | |
| 136 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 137 | 3% | 84% | |
| 138 | 2% | 81% | |
| 139 | 0.9% | 79% | |
| 140 | 8% | 78% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 70% | |
| 142 | 5% | 70% | |
| 143 | 1.0% | 65% | |
| 144 | 1.1% | 64% | |
| 145 | 1.3% | 63% | |
| 146 | 1.0% | 62% | |
| 147 | 2% | 61% | |
| 148 | 2% | 59% | |
| 149 | 2% | 57% | |
| 150 | 0.7% | 56% | |
| 151 | 5% | 55% | |
| 152 | 0.7% | 50% | |
| 153 | 21% | 49% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 28% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 28% | Median |
| 156 | 0.7% | 26% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 26% | |
| 158 | 2% | 25% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 24% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 23% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 23% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 22% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 22% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 21% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 21% | |
| 166 | 1.2% | 21% | |
| 167 | 10% | 20% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 169 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 170 | 4% | 8% | |
| 171 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0% | 3% | |
| 174 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 120 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 124 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 125 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 127 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 128 | 2% | 98% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 130 | 7% | 96% | |
| 131 | 0.6% | 89% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 133 | 0.9% | 89% | |
| 134 | 0.8% | 88% | |
| 135 | 2% | 87% | |
| 136 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 137 | 3% | 84% | |
| 138 | 2% | 81% | |
| 139 | 0.9% | 79% | |
| 140 | 8% | 78% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 70% | |
| 142 | 5% | 70% | |
| 143 | 1.0% | 65% | |
| 144 | 1.1% | 64% | |
| 145 | 1.3% | 63% | |
| 146 | 1.0% | 62% | |
| 147 | 2% | 61% | |
| 148 | 2% | 59% | |
| 149 | 2% | 57% | |
| 150 | 0.7% | 56% | |
| 151 | 5% | 55% | |
| 152 | 0.7% | 50% | |
| 153 | 21% | 49% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 28% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 28% | Median |
| 156 | 0.7% | 26% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 26% | |
| 158 | 2% | 25% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 24% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 23% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 23% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 22% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 22% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 21% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 21% | |
| 166 | 1.2% | 21% | |
| 167 | 10% | 20% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 169 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 170 | 4% | 8% | |
| 171 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 173 | 0% | 3% | |
| 174 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 114 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 116 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 117 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 120 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 123 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 126 | 2% | 96% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 128 | 3% | 94% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 91% | |
| 130 | 28% | 91% | |
| 131 | 0.8% | 63% | |
| 132 | 2% | 62% | |
| 133 | 0.9% | 60% | |
| 134 | 2% | 59% | |
| 135 | 3% | 57% | |
| 136 | 1.1% | 55% | Median |
| 137 | 3% | 53% | |
| 138 | 3% | 50% | |
| 139 | 1.1% | 47% | |
| 140 | 8% | 46% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 38% | |
| 142 | 5% | 38% | |
| 143 | 7% | 33% | |
| 144 | 1.0% | 26% | |
| 145 | 2% | 25% | |
| 146 | 4% | 23% | |
| 147 | 2% | 19% | |
| 148 | 6% | 17% | |
| 149 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 150 | 2% | 11% | |
| 151 | 5% | 9% | |
| 152 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 162 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 110 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 114 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 116 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 117 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 120 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 121 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 123 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 126 | 2% | 96% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 128 | 3% | 94% | |
| 129 | 0.6% | 91% | |
| 130 | 28% | 91% | |
| 131 | 0.8% | 63% | |
| 132 | 2% | 62% | |
| 133 | 0.9% | 60% | |
| 134 | 2% | 59% | |
| 135 | 3% | 57% | |
| 136 | 1.1% | 55% | Median |
| 137 | 3% | 53% | |
| 138 | 3% | 50% | |
| 139 | 1.1% | 47% | |
| 140 | 8% | 46% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 38% | |
| 142 | 5% | 38% | |
| 143 | 7% | 33% | |
| 144 | 1.0% | 26% | |
| 145 | 2% | 25% | |
| 146 | 4% | 23% | |
| 147 | 2% | 19% | |
| 148 | 6% | 17% | |
| 149 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 150 | 2% | 11% | |
| 151 | 5% | 9% | |
| 152 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 162 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 79 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 82 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 86 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 87 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 88 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 89 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 90 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 91 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 92 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 93 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 94 | 8% | 93% | |
| 95 | 16% | 84% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 69% | |
| 97 | 2% | 68% | |
| 98 | 5% | 66% | |
| 99 | 7% | 61% | |
| 100 | 8% | 55% | Median |
| 101 | 4% | 47% | |
| 102 | 10% | 42% | |
| 103 | 1.0% | 33% | |
| 104 | 2% | 32% | |
| 105 | 8% | 30% | |
| 106 | 4% | 22% | |
| 107 | 2% | 18% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 17% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 16% | |
| 111 | 4% | 15% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 113 | 0.8% | 10% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 115 | 5% | 9% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 118 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 119 | 2% | 3% | |
| 120 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 122 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 123 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 125 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 126 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 127 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 128 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 129 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 130 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 131 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 132 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 133 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 134 | 0% | 0% | |
| 135 | 0% | 0% | |
| 136 | 0% | 0% | |
| 137 | 0% | 0% | |
| 138 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Millward Brown
- Commissioner(s): TVN and TVN24
- Fieldwork period: 19–20 February 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.97%