Poll Average
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Summary
The table below lists the polls on which the average is based. They are the most recent polls (less than 90 days old) registered and analyzed so far.
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | PiS | ZP | KO | PO | KP | K | .N | PSL | SLD | W | Konf | R | Wi | MN | L | BS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 October 2015 | General Election | 37.6% 235 |
37.6% 235 |
31.7% 166 |
24.1% 138 |
13.9% 58 |
8.8% 42 |
7.6% 28 |
5.1% 16 |
7.6% 0 |
4.8% 0 |
4.8% 0 |
3.6% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.2% 1 |
11.7% 0 |
0.1% 0 |
| N/A | Poll Average | N/A N/A |
39–50% 210–280 |
18–30% 95–159 |
N/A N/A |
4–9% 0–39 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
4–9% 0–34 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
8–17% 34–81 |
0–2% 0 |
| 10–11 October 2019 | IBSP | N/A N/A |
39–45% 200–238 |
24–30% 115–147 |
N/A N/A |
5–8% 0–26 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
7–10% 14–40 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
14–18% 56–82 |
N/A N/A |
| 11 October 2019 | IBRiS RMF |
N/A N/A |
39–45% 232–271 |
20–25% 103–140 |
N/A N/A |
5–7% 0–28 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
4–6% 0–14 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
12–16% 58–84 |
N/A N/A |
| 4–10 October 2019 | Social Changes wpolityce.pl |
N/A N/A |
44–50% 232–271 |
22–27% 99–134 |
N/A N/A |
5–8% 0–25 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
5–8% 0–21 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
14–19% 62–86 |
N/A N/A |
| 9–10 October 2019 | Kantar Public TVN |
N/A N/A |
37–42% 211–242 |
24–28% 125–152 |
N/A N/A |
6–8% 11–34 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
6–8% 9–33 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
10–14% 43–65 |
0–1% 0 |
| 9–10 October 2019 | Instytut Badań Pollster Super Express |
N/A N/A |
42–48% 224–259 |
25–30% 119–151 |
N/A N/A |
6–9% 7–31 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
4–6% 0–9 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
12–17% 48–76 |
N/A N/A |
| 9–10 October 2019 | Estymator DoRzeczy.pl |
N/A N/A |
45–51% 239–275 |
23–28% 107–142 |
N/A N/A |
5–8% 6–29 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
4–6% 0–11 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
12–16% 48–74 |
N/A N/A |
| 3–10 October 2019 | CBOS | N/A N/A |
43–49% 256–293 |
17–21% 88–117 |
N/A N/A |
6–10% 22–46 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
5–8% 0–27 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
7–11% 29–49 |
N/A N/A |
| 9–10 October 2019 | CBM Indicator TVP |
N/A N/A |
44–50% 231–268 |
24–30% 116–148 |
N/A N/A |
6–9% 9–33 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
4–7% 0–13 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
11–16% 44–67 |
N/A N/A |
| 1–5 October 2019 | Kantar Millward Brown Gazeta Wyborcza, Gazeta.pl and TOK FM |
N/A N/A |
39–45% 223–257 |
26–32% 141–173 |
N/A N/A |
3–5% 0–10 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
4–7% 0–15 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
11–15% 46–73 |
1–2% 0 |
| 30 September–4 October 2019 | Dobra Opinia PPG |
N/A N/A |
47–49% 250–262 |
27–29% 135–146 |
N/A N/A |
6–7% 11–19 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
4–5% 0 |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
N/A N/A |
12–13% 46–53 |
N/A N/A |
| 25 October 2015 | General Election | 37.6% 235 |
37.6% 235 |
31.7% 166 |
24.1% 138 |
13.9% 58 |
8.8% 42 |
7.6% 28 |
5.1% 16 |
7.6% 0 |
4.8% 0 |
4.8% 0 |
3.6% 0 |
0.0% 0 |
0.2% 1 |
11.7% 0 |
0.1% 0 |
Only polls for which at least the sample size has been published are included in the table above.
Legend:
- Top half of each row: Voting intentions (95% confidence interval)
- Bottom half of each row: Seat projections for the Sejm (95% confidence interval)
- PiS: Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
- ZP: Zjednoczona Prawica
- KO: Koalicja Obywatelska
- PO: Platforma Obywatelska
- KP: Koalicja Polska
- K: Kukiz’15
- .N: .Nowoczesna
- PSL: Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
- SLD: Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
- W: KORWiN
- Konf: Konfederacja
- R: Lewica Razem
- Wi: Wiosna
- MN: Mniejszość Niemiecka
- L: Lewica
- BS: Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy
- N/A (single party): Party not included the published results
- N/A (entire row): Calculation for this opinion poll not started yet
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Zjednoczona Prawica | 37.6% | 45.3% | 40.3–48.7% | 39.5–49.3% | 38.9–49.8% | 37.8–51.0% |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 31.7% | 26.2% | 20.7–28.7% | 19.0–29.5% | 18.2–30.2% | 17.0–31.4% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Koalicja Polska | 13.9% | 6.6% | 4.9–8.0% | 4.0–8.5% | 3.6–8.9% | 3.1–9.6% |
| Lewica | 11.7% | 13.5% | 10.6–16.2% | 9.0–16.8% | 8.4–17.4% | 7.6–18.4% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| .Nowoczesna | 7.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Konfederacja | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.2–7.8% | 4.0–8.7% | 3.8–9.3% | 3.5–10.2% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mniejszość Niemiecka | 0.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.2–1.3% | 0.2–1.5% | 0.1–1.7% | 0.1–2.0% |
| Wiosna | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Zjednoczona Prawica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35.5–36.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 36.5–37.5% | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 37.5–38.5% | 1.3% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 38.5–39.5% | 4% | 98% | |
| 39.5–40.5% | 6% | 95% | |
| 40.5–41.5% | 9% | 88% | |
| 41.5–42.5% | 9% | 80% | |
| 42.5–43.5% | 8% | 71% | |
| 43.5–44.5% | 7% | 63% | |
| 44.5–45.5% | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 45.5–46.5% | 10% | 48% | |
| 46.5–47.5% | 11% | 38% | |
| 47.5–48.5% | 14% | 26% | |
| 48.5–49.5% | 9% | 12% | |
| 49.5–50.5% | 3% | 4% | |
| 50.5–51.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 51.5–52.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 52.5–53.5% | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14.5–15.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 3% | 96% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 3% | 93% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 3% | 90% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 4% | 87% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 5% | 83% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 8% | 78% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 11% | 70% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 26.5–27.5% | 17% | 45% | |
| 27.5–28.5% | 16% | 27% | |
| 28.5–29.5% | 7% | 11% | |
| 29.5–30.5% | 3% | 5% | |
| 30.5–31.5% | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 31.5–32.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 32.5–33.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33.5–34.5% | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Polska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 2% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 6% | 98% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 9% | 92% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 30% | 83% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 34% | 53% | Median |
| 7.5–8.5% | 15% | 19% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 0% | 0% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lewica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 4% | 97% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 3% | 93% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 4% | 90% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 17% | 86% | Last Result |
| 12.5–13.5% | 20% | 69% | |
| 13.5–14.5% | 18% | 50% | Median |
| 14.5–15.5% | 15% | 31% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 10% | 17% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 5% | 7% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 2% | 2% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 23% | 99.4% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 31% | 76% | Last Result, Median |
| 5.5–6.5% | 22% | 46% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 12% | 24% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 6% | 12% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 4% | 6% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 0% | 0% |
Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy page.
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 47% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 49% | 53% | Median |
| 1.5–2.5% | 4% | 4% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Zjednoczona Prawica | 235 | 247 | 223–268 | 216–274 | 210–280 | 202–290 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 166 | 131 | 106–148 | 99–153 | 95–159 | 90–168 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Koalicja Polska | 58 | 16 | 0–30 | 0–35 | 0–39 | 0–45 |
| Lewica | 0 | 61 | 44–75 | 37–78 | 34–81 | 31–85 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| .Nowoczesna | 28 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| KORWiN | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Konfederacja | 0 | 4 | 0–25 | 0–30 | 0–34 | 0–38 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mniejszość Niemiecka | 1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wiosna | 0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Zjednoczona Prawica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 207 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 208 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 209 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 210 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 211 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 212 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 213 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 214 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 215 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 216 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 217 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 218 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 219 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 220 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 221 | 0.9% | 92% | |
| 222 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 223 | 1.0% | 91% | |
| 224 | 1.0% | 90% | |
| 225 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 226 | 1.2% | 87% | |
| 227 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 228 | 1.3% | 85% | |
| 229 | 1.0% | 84% | |
| 230 | 1.2% | 83% | |
| 231 | 1.3% | 82% | Majority |
| 232 | 1.0% | 80% | |
| 233 | 1.3% | 79% | |
| 234 | 1.3% | 78% | |
| 235 | 1.4% | 77% | Last Result |
| 236 | 1.4% | 76% | |
| 237 | 2% | 74% | |
| 238 | 2% | 72% | |
| 239 | 2% | 71% | |
| 240 | 2% | 69% | |
| 241 | 2% | 67% | |
| 242 | 3% | 65% | |
| 243 | 3% | 62% | |
| 244 | 3% | 60% | |
| 245 | 3% | 57% | |
| 246 | 2% | 54% | |
| 247 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 248 | 2% | 49% | |
| 249 | 2% | 47% | |
| 250 | 2% | 45% | |
| 251 | 3% | 42% | |
| 252 | 3% | 40% | |
| 253 | 3% | 37% | |
| 254 | 3% | 34% | |
| 255 | 3% | 31% | |
| 256 | 3% | 28% | |
| 257 | 2% | 26% | |
| 258 | 2% | 23% | |
| 259 | 2% | 21% | |
| 260 | 2% | 19% | |
| 261 | 1.3% | 18% | |
| 262 | 1.2% | 16% | |
| 263 | 1.0% | 15% | |
| 264 | 1.0% | 14% | |
| 265 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 266 | 0.9% | 12% | |
| 267 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 268 | 0.8% | 10% | |
| 269 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 270 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 271 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 272 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 273 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 274 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 275 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 276 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 277 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 278 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 279 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 280 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 281 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 282 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 283 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 284 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 285 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 286 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 288 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 296 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 297 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 299 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 300 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 93 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 98 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 99 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 100 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 101 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 102 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 104 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 106 | 0.7% | 90% | |
| 107 | 0.8% | 89% | |
| 108 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 87% | |
| 111 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 112 | 1.2% | 86% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 84% | |
| 114 | 1.3% | 83% | |
| 115 | 1.5% | 82% | |
| 116 | 2% | 81% | |
| 117 | 1.1% | 79% | |
| 118 | 1.5% | 78% | |
| 119 | 2% | 76% | |
| 120 | 2% | 74% | |
| 121 | 2% | 72% | |
| 122 | 2% | 70% | |
| 123 | 2% | 68% | |
| 124 | 2% | 66% | |
| 125 | 2% | 64% | |
| 126 | 2% | 62% | |
| 127 | 2% | 60% | |
| 128 | 3% | 57% | |
| 129 | 2% | 55% | |
| 130 | 2% | 52% | |
| 131 | 2% | 50% | Median |
| 132 | 2% | 48% | |
| 133 | 2% | 46% | |
| 134 | 2% | 44% | |
| 135 | 2% | 42% | |
| 136 | 2% | 40% | |
| 137 | 2% | 38% | |
| 138 | 3% | 35% | |
| 139 | 2% | 33% | |
| 140 | 3% | 31% | |
| 141 | 4% | 28% | |
| 142 | 3% | 24% | |
| 143 | 3% | 22% | |
| 144 | 3% | 19% | |
| 145 | 3% | 16% | |
| 146 | 1.4% | 13% | |
| 147 | 1.4% | 12% | |
| 148 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 149 | 0.9% | 9% | |
| 150 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 151 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 152 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 153 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Polska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Koalicja Polska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 89% | |
| 2 | 0% | 89% | |
| 3 | 0% | 89% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 89% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 88% | |
| 7 | 3% | 87% | |
| 8 | 2% | 84% | |
| 9 | 2% | 82% | |
| 10 | 3% | 80% | |
| 11 | 4% | 76% | |
| 12 | 9% | 72% | |
| 13 | 5% | 63% | |
| 14 | 3% | 58% | |
| 15 | 3% | 56% | |
| 16 | 5% | 53% | Median |
| 17 | 4% | 48% | |
| 18 | 3% | 43% | |
| 19 | 3% | 40% | |
| 20 | 2% | 37% | |
| 21 | 3% | 35% | |
| 22 | 3% | 32% | |
| 23 | 3% | 30% | |
| 24 | 3% | 26% | |
| 25 | 4% | 23% | |
| 26 | 4% | 19% | |
| 27 | 2% | 15% | |
| 28 | 2% | 13% | |
| 29 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 30 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 32 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lewica
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 91% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 91% | |
| 45 | 2% | 90% | |
| 46 | 1.3% | 88% | |
| 47 | 3% | 87% | |
| 48 | 5% | 84% | |
| 49 | 2% | 79% | |
| 50 | 4% | 77% | |
| 51 | 3% | 73% | |
| 52 | 3% | 70% | |
| 53 | 2% | 67% | |
| 54 | 2% | 65% | |
| 55 | 2% | 63% | |
| 56 | 2% | 61% | |
| 57 | 2% | 60% | |
| 58 | 2% | 58% | |
| 59 | 2% | 56% | |
| 60 | 2% | 54% | |
| 61 | 2% | 52% | Median |
| 62 | 3% | 49% | |
| 63 | 4% | 46% | |
| 64 | 6% | 42% | |
| 65 | 5% | 36% | |
| 66 | 4% | 30% | |
| 67 | 4% | 27% | |
| 68 | 3% | 23% | |
| 69 | 2% | 20% | |
| 70 | 2% | 18% | |
| 71 | 2% | 16% | |
| 72 | 2% | 15% | |
| 73 | 2% | 13% | |
| 74 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 76 | 2% | 9% | |
| 77 | 2% | 7% | |
| 78 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 79 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 80 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 82 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 84 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 85 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 86 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 38% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 62% | |
| 2 | 6% | 62% | |
| 3 | 4% | 56% | |
| 4 | 3% | 52% | Median |
| 5 | 4% | 48% | |
| 6 | 3% | 44% | |
| 7 | 2% | 41% | |
| 8 | 2% | 39% | |
| 9 | 2% | 37% | |
| 10 | 2% | 35% | |
| 11 | 2% | 33% | |
| 12 | 2% | 30% | |
| 13 | 3% | 28% | |
| 14 | 2% | 26% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 24% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 23% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 21% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 20% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 19% | |
| 20 | 2% | 18% | |
| 21 | 2% | 17% | |
| 22 | 2% | 15% | |
| 23 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 24 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 25 | 2% | 11% | |
| 26 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zjednoczona Prawica | 235 | 247 | 82% | 223–268 | 216–274 | 210–280 | 202–290 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska – Lewica | 224 | 207 | 2% | 184–222 | 171–226 | 165–230 | 156–236 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica | 166 | 191 | 0.5% | 161–210 | 137–216 | 132–221 | 125–230 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska | 224 | 149 | 0% | 127–162 | 122–166 | 118–170 | 111–177 |
| Koalicja Obywatelska | 166 | 131 | 0% | 106–148 | 99–153 | 95–159 | 90–168 |
Zjednoczona Prawica
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 207 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 208 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 209 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 210 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 211 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 212 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 213 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 214 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 215 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 216 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 217 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 218 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 219 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 220 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 221 | 0.9% | 92% | |
| 222 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 223 | 1.0% | 91% | |
| 224 | 1.0% | 90% | |
| 225 | 1.2% | 89% | |
| 226 | 1.2% | 87% | |
| 227 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 228 | 1.3% | 85% | |
| 229 | 1.0% | 84% | |
| 230 | 1.2% | 83% | |
| 231 | 1.3% | 82% | Majority |
| 232 | 1.0% | 80% | |
| 233 | 1.3% | 79% | |
| 234 | 1.3% | 78% | |
| 235 | 1.4% | 77% | Last Result |
| 236 | 1.4% | 76% | |
| 237 | 2% | 74% | |
| 238 | 2% | 72% | |
| 239 | 2% | 71% | |
| 240 | 2% | 69% | |
| 241 | 2% | 67% | |
| 242 | 3% | 65% | |
| 243 | 3% | 62% | |
| 244 | 3% | 60% | |
| 245 | 3% | 57% | |
| 246 | 2% | 54% | |
| 247 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 248 | 2% | 49% | |
| 249 | 2% | 47% | |
| 250 | 2% | 45% | |
| 251 | 3% | 42% | |
| 252 | 3% | 40% | |
| 253 | 3% | 37% | |
| 254 | 3% | 34% | |
| 255 | 3% | 31% | |
| 256 | 3% | 28% | |
| 257 | 2% | 26% | |
| 258 | 2% | 23% | |
| 259 | 2% | 21% | |
| 260 | 2% | 19% | |
| 261 | 1.3% | 18% | |
| 262 | 1.2% | 16% | |
| 263 | 1.0% | 15% | |
| 264 | 1.0% | 14% | |
| 265 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 266 | 0.9% | 12% | |
| 267 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 268 | 0.8% | 10% | |
| 269 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 270 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 271 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 272 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 273 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 274 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 275 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 276 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 277 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 278 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 279 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 280 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 281 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 282 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 283 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 284 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 285 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 286 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 288 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 289 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 291 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 292 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 293 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 294 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 295 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 296 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 297 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 299 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 300 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska – Lewica
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 170 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 177 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 179 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 181 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 182 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 185 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 186 | 0.5% | 89% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 89% | |
| 188 | 0.6% | 88% | |
| 189 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 190 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 191 | 0.8% | 86% | |
| 192 | 0.9% | 85% | |
| 193 | 1.0% | 84% | |
| 194 | 0.9% | 83% | |
| 195 | 1.1% | 82% | |
| 196 | 1.4% | 81% | |
| 197 | 1.4% | 80% | |
| 198 | 2% | 79% | |
| 199 | 2% | 77% | |
| 200 | 2% | 75% | |
| 201 | 3% | 73% | |
| 202 | 3% | 70% | |
| 203 | 3% | 68% | |
| 204 | 4% | 64% | |
| 205 | 3% | 61% | |
| 206 | 4% | 57% | |
| 207 | 4% | 53% | |
| 208 | 3% | 49% | Median |
| 209 | 3% | 46% | |
| 210 | 3% | 42% | |
| 211 | 3% | 39% | |
| 212 | 3% | 36% | |
| 213 | 3% | 34% | |
| 214 | 3% | 31% | |
| 215 | 3% | 27% | |
| 216 | 3% | 24% | |
| 217 | 3% | 21% | |
| 218 | 2% | 18% | |
| 219 | 2% | 16% | |
| 220 | 2% | 14% | |
| 221 | 2% | 12% | |
| 222 | 2% | 10% | |
| 223 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 224 | 1.1% | 8% | Last Result |
| 225 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 226 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 227 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 228 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 229 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 230 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 231 | 0.4% | 2% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 233 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 234 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 235 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 236 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 240 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 241 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 242 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 243 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Lewica
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 118 | 0% | 100% | |
| 119 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 120 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 121 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 125 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 98.9% | |
| 129 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 131 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 132 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 134 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 135 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 136 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 137 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 139 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 158 | 0% | 90% | |
| 159 | 0% | 90% | |
| 160 | 0% | 90% | |
| 161 | 0% | 90% | |
| 162 | 0% | 90% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 90% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 169 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 89% | |
| 172 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 173 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 174 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 175 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 176 | 0.9% | 85% | |
| 177 | 1.0% | 84% | |
| 178 | 1.2% | 83% | |
| 179 | 1.3% | 82% | |
| 180 | 2% | 81% | |
| 181 | 2% | 79% | |
| 182 | 2% | 78% | |
| 183 | 2% | 76% | |
| 184 | 3% | 74% | |
| 185 | 3% | 71% | |
| 186 | 3% | 68% | |
| 187 | 3% | 66% | |
| 188 | 3% | 62% | |
| 189 | 4% | 59% | |
| 190 | 3% | 56% | |
| 191 | 4% | 52% | |
| 192 | 4% | 48% | Median |
| 193 | 3% | 45% | |
| 194 | 3% | 41% | |
| 195 | 3% | 39% | |
| 196 | 3% | 36% | |
| 197 | 2% | 33% | |
| 198 | 2% | 31% | |
| 199 | 2% | 29% | |
| 200 | 2% | 27% | |
| 201 | 2% | 25% | |
| 202 | 2% | 23% | |
| 203 | 2% | 21% | |
| 204 | 2% | 20% | |
| 205 | 1.5% | 18% | |
| 206 | 1.5% | 16% | |
| 207 | 1.3% | 15% | |
| 208 | 1.3% | 13% | |
| 209 | 1.4% | 12% | |
| 210 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 211 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 212 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 213 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 214 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 215 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 216 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 217 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 218 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 219 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 220 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 222 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 223 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 224 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 225 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 226 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 234 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 239 | 0% | 0% |
Koalicja Obywatelska – Koalicja Polska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | 0% | 100% | |
| 105 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 113 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 116 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 119 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 120 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 122 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 123 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 124 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 125 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 126 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 127 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 128 | 1.4% | 89% | |
| 129 | 2% | 88% | |
| 130 | 1.3% | 86% | |
| 131 | 2% | 85% | |
| 132 | 1.5% | 83% | |
| 133 | 2% | 82% | |
| 134 | 2% | 80% | |
| 135 | 2% | 78% | |
| 136 | 2% | 76% | |
| 137 | 2% | 75% | |
| 138 | 2% | 73% | |
| 139 | 2% | 71% | |
| 140 | 2% | 70% | |
| 141 | 2% | 68% | |
| 142 | 2% | 66% | |
| 143 | 2% | 64% | |
| 144 | 2% | 62% | |
| 145 | 2% | 60% | |
| 146 | 2% | 57% | |
| 147 | 3% | 55% | Median |
| 148 | 2% | 53% | |
| 149 | 3% | 50% | |
| 150 | 3% | 48% | |
| 151 | 3% | 45% | |
| 152 | 4% | 42% | |
| 153 | 5% | 38% | |
| 154 | 4% | 34% | |
| 155 | 3% | 30% | |
| 156 | 4% | 27% | |
| 157 | 4% | 23% | |
| 158 | 3% | 19% | |
| 159 | 2% | 16% | |
| 160 | 2% | 13% | |
| 161 | 1.4% | 12% | |
| 162 | 1.3% | 10% | |
| 163 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 164 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 165 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 166 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 167 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 168 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 169 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 170 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Koalicja Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | 0% | 100% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 89 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 90 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 91 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 92 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 93 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 94 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 96 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 97 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 98 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 99 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 100 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 101 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 102 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 103 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 104 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 106 | 0.7% | 90% | |
| 107 | 0.8% | 89% | |
| 108 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 109 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 87% | |
| 111 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 112 | 1.2% | 86% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 84% | |
| 114 | 1.3% | 83% | |
| 115 | 1.5% | 82% | |
| 116 | 2% | 81% | |
| 117 | 1.1% | 79% | |
| 118 | 1.5% | 78% | |
| 119 | 2% | 76% | |
| 120 | 2% | 74% | |
| 121 | 2% | 72% | |
| 122 | 2% | 70% | |
| 123 | 2% | 68% | |
| 124 | 2% | 66% | |
| 125 | 2% | 64% | |
| 126 | 2% | 62% | |
| 127 | 2% | 60% | |
| 128 | 3% | 57% | |
| 129 | 2% | 55% | |
| 130 | 2% | 52% | |
| 131 | 2% | 50% | Median |
| 132 | 2% | 48% | |
| 133 | 2% | 46% | |
| 134 | 2% | 44% | |
| 135 | 2% | 42% | |
| 136 | 2% | 40% | |
| 137 | 2% | 38% | |
| 138 | 3% | 35% | |
| 139 | 2% | 33% | |
| 140 | 3% | 31% | |
| 141 | 4% | 28% | |
| 142 | 3% | 24% | |
| 143 | 3% | 22% | |
| 144 | 3% | 19% | |
| 145 | 3% | 16% | |
| 146 | 1.4% | 13% | |
| 147 | 1.4% | 12% | |
| 148 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 149 | 0.9% | 9% | |
| 150 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 151 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 152 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 153 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
- Number of polls included in this average: 10
- Lowest number of simulations done in a poll included in this average: 1,048,576
- Total number of simulations done in the polls included in this average: 10,485,760
- Error estimate: 0.93%