Opinion Poll by Estymator for DoRzeczy.pl, 21–22 February 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 50.2% | 48.2–52.3% | 47.7–52.8% | 47.2–53.3% | 46.2–54.3% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 22.9% | 21.3–24.7% | 20.8–25.2% | 20.4–25.6% | 19.6–26.5% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.4–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.9–9.1% | 5.5–9.7% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.1–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.6% | 4.3–8.1% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.6–7.2% |
| .Nowoczesna | 7.6% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.6% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 287 | 280–299 | 274–305 | 270–313 | 261–320 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 122 | 111–128 | 107–136 | 105–139 | 101–144 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 32 | 21–35 | 18–37 | 12–39 | 7–41 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 13 | 0–25 | 0–27 | 0–28 | 0–29 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 0 | 0–15 | 0–20 | 0–22 | 0–24 |
| .Nowoczesna | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0–8 | 0–9 | 0–11 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 235 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0% | 100% | |
| 237 | 0% | 100% | |
| 238 | 0% | 100% | |
| 239 | 0% | 100% | |
| 240 | 0% | 100% | |
| 241 | 0% | 100% | |
| 242 | 0% | 100% | |
| 243 | 0% | 100% | |
| 244 | 0% | 100% | |
| 245 | 0% | 100% | |
| 246 | 0% | 100% | |
| 247 | 0% | 100% | |
| 248 | 0% | 100% | |
| 249 | 0% | 100% | |
| 250 | 0% | 100% | |
| 251 | 0% | 100% | |
| 252 | 0% | 100% | |
| 253 | 0% | 100% | |
| 254 | 0% | 100% | |
| 255 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 259 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 260 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 262 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 263 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 264 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 98.5% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 267 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 268 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 269 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 271 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 272 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 273 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 274 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 275 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 276 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 277 | 2% | 93% | |
| 278 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 279 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 280 | 4% | 90% | |
| 281 | 2% | 86% | |
| 282 | 1.5% | 84% | |
| 283 | 3% | 83% | |
| 284 | 3% | 80% | |
| 285 | 23% | 77% | |
| 286 | 0.6% | 54% | |
| 287 | 30% | 53% | Median |
| 288 | 1.3% | 23% | |
| 289 | 3% | 22% | |
| 290 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 291 | 0.7% | 19% | |
| 292 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 293 | 1.2% | 17% | |
| 294 | 0.6% | 16% | |
| 295 | 2% | 15% | |
| 296 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 297 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 298 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 299 | 3% | 12% | |
| 300 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 301 | 2% | 8% | |
| 302 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 303 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 304 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 305 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 306 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 307 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 308 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 311 | 0% | 3% | |
| 312 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 313 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 314 | 0% | 2% | |
| 315 | 2% | 2% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 320 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 322 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 102 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 103 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 105 | 3% | 98% | |
| 106 | 0% | 96% | |
| 107 | 2% | 96% | |
| 108 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 110 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 111 | 2% | 90% | |
| 112 | 3% | 88% | |
| 113 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 85% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 116 | 2% | 84% | |
| 117 | 1.2% | 82% | |
| 118 | 0.7% | 81% | |
| 119 | 3% | 80% | |
| 120 | 25% | 77% | |
| 121 | 2% | 52% | |
| 122 | 5% | 51% | Median |
| 123 | 3% | 46% | |
| 124 | 4% | 43% | |
| 125 | 25% | 39% | |
| 126 | 2% | 14% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 128 | 3% | 12% | |
| 129 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 134 | 2% | 7% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 137 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 138 | 0% | 3% | Last Result |
| 139 | 2% | 3% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 12 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 20 | 2% | 94% | |
| 21 | 3% | 93% | |
| 22 | 2% | 90% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 24 | 3% | 87% | |
| 25 | 2% | 84% | |
| 26 | 5% | 83% | |
| 27 | 3% | 77% | |
| 28 | 2% | 74% | |
| 29 | 2% | 72% | |
| 30 | 2% | 71% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 69% | |
| 32 | 26% | 68% | Median |
| 33 | 3% | 42% | |
| 34 | 28% | 40% | |
| 35 | 2% | 11% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 37 | 4% | 9% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 90% | |
| 2 | 0% | 90% | |
| 3 | 0% | 90% | |
| 4 | 0% | 90% | |
| 5 | 0% | 90% | |
| 6 | 0% | 90% | |
| 7 | 0% | 90% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 90% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 89% | |
| 11 | 26% | 88% | |
| 12 | 5% | 62% | |
| 13 | 8% | 58% | Median |
| 14 | 24% | 50% | |
| 15 | 1.0% | 25% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 24% | |
| 17 | 3% | 24% | |
| 18 | 1.1% | 21% | |
| 19 | 2% | 20% | |
| 20 | 3% | 17% | |
| 21 | 1.1% | 15% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 23 | 1.2% | 13% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 25 | 5% | 11% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 27 | 3% | 6% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 29 | 2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 48% | |
| 3 | 0% | 48% | |
| 4 | 0% | 48% | |
| 5 | 0% | 48% | |
| 6 | 0% | 48% | |
| 7 | 0% | 48% | |
| 8 | 0% | 48% | |
| 9 | 0% | 48% | |
| 10 | 0% | 48% | |
| 11 | 3% | 48% | |
| 12 | 28% | 45% | |
| 13 | 2% | 17% | |
| 14 | 5% | 15% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 16 | 2% | 9% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 20 | 2% | 5% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 9% | |
| 8 | 4% | 9% | |
| 9 | 3% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 287 | 100% | 280–299 | 274–305 | 270–313 | 261–320 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna – Lewica Razem | 182 | 143 | 0% | 137–151 | 130–157 | 124–165 | 118–174 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 143 | 0% | 137–151 | 130–157 | 124–165 | 118–174 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 137 | 0% | 126–147 | 123–150 | 120–155 | 112–160 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 128 | 0% | 120–140 | 116–143 | 111–151 | 103–157 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 122 | 0% | 113–129 | 110–137 | 108–139 | 103–145 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 122 | 0% | 111–128 | 107–136 | 105–139 | 101–144 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 235 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0% | 100% | |
| 237 | 0% | 100% | |
| 238 | 0% | 100% | |
| 239 | 0% | 100% | |
| 240 | 0% | 100% | |
| 241 | 0% | 100% | |
| 242 | 0% | 100% | |
| 243 | 0% | 100% | |
| 244 | 0% | 100% | |
| 245 | 0% | 100% | |
| 246 | 0% | 100% | |
| 247 | 0% | 100% | |
| 248 | 0% | 100% | |
| 249 | 0% | 100% | |
| 250 | 0% | 100% | |
| 251 | 0% | 100% | |
| 252 | 0% | 100% | |
| 253 | 0% | 100% | |
| 254 | 0% | 100% | |
| 255 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 256 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 259 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 260 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 262 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 263 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 264 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 98.5% | |
| 266 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 267 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 268 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 269 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 270 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 271 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 272 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 273 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 274 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 275 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 276 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 277 | 2% | 93% | |
| 278 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 279 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 280 | 4% | 90% | |
| 281 | 2% | 86% | |
| 282 | 1.5% | 84% | |
| 283 | 3% | 83% | |
| 284 | 3% | 80% | |
| 285 | 23% | 77% | |
| 286 | 0.6% | 54% | |
| 287 | 30% | 53% | Median |
| 288 | 1.3% | 23% | |
| 289 | 3% | 22% | |
| 290 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 291 | 0.7% | 19% | |
| 292 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 293 | 1.2% | 17% | |
| 294 | 0.6% | 16% | |
| 295 | 2% | 15% | |
| 296 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 297 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 298 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 299 | 3% | 12% | |
| 300 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 301 | 2% | 8% | |
| 302 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 303 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 304 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 305 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 306 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 307 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 308 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 309 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 310 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 311 | 0% | 3% | |
| 312 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 313 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 314 | 0% | 2% | |
| 315 | 2% | 2% | |
| 316 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 317 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 318 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 319 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 320 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 321 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 322 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 323 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna – Lewica Razem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 119 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 122 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 124 | 2% | 98% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 131 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 132 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 134 | 2% | 93% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 91% | Median |
| 136 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 137 | 3% | 90% | |
| 138 | 1.0% | 88% | |
| 139 | 29% | 87% | |
| 140 | 0.7% | 58% | |
| 141 | 1.3% | 57% | |
| 142 | 2% | 56% | |
| 143 | 27% | 54% | |
| 144 | 2% | 27% | |
| 145 | 5% | 25% | |
| 146 | 1.1% | 20% | |
| 147 | 2% | 19% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 17% | |
| 149 | 4% | 16% | |
| 150 | 1.4% | 12% | |
| 151 | 2% | 11% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 153 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 154 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 156 | 2% | 7% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 170 | 0% | 2% | |
| 171 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 116 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 117 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 118 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 119 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 120 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 121 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 122 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 124 | 2% | 98% | |
| 125 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 127 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 130 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 131 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 132 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 133 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 134 | 2% | 93% | |
| 135 | 0.3% | 91% | Median |
| 136 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 137 | 3% | 90% | |
| 138 | 1.0% | 88% | |
| 139 | 29% | 87% | |
| 140 | 0.7% | 58% | |
| 141 | 1.3% | 57% | |
| 142 | 2% | 56% | |
| 143 | 27% | 54% | |
| 144 | 2% | 27% | |
| 145 | 5% | 25% | |
| 146 | 1.1% | 20% | |
| 147 | 2% | 19% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 17% | |
| 149 | 4% | 16% | |
| 150 | 1.4% | 12% | |
| 151 | 2% | 11% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 153 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 154 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 156 | 2% | 7% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 161 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 163 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 169 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 170 | 0% | 2% | |
| 171 | 0.8% | 1.5% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 109 | 0% | 100% | |
| 110 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 116 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 119 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 120 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 122 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 123 | 2% | 95% | |
| 124 | 2% | 94% | |
| 125 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 126 | 2% | 91% | |
| 127 | 2% | 89% | |
| 128 | 0.6% | 87% | |
| 129 | 1.1% | 86% | |
| 130 | 1.3% | 85% | |
| 131 | 23% | 84% | |
| 132 | 4% | 61% | |
| 133 | 1.1% | 57% | |
| 134 | 2% | 56% | |
| 135 | 1.2% | 54% | Median |
| 136 | 0.3% | 52% | |
| 137 | 4% | 52% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 48% | |
| 139 | 27% | 48% | |
| 140 | 0.8% | 21% | |
| 141 | 1.2% | 20% | |
| 142 | 1.1% | 19% | |
| 143 | 0.6% | 17% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 17% | |
| 145 | 5% | 17% | |
| 146 | 1.1% | 12% | |
| 147 | 2% | 11% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 149 | 3% | 8% | |
| 150 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 155 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 156 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 105 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 106 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 107 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 109 | 0% | 98.5% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 111 | 2% | 98% | |
| 112 | 0% | 96% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 115 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 116 | 2% | 95% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 119 | 2% | 93% | |
| 120 | 3% | 91% | |
| 121 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 122 | 5% | 88% | Median |
| 123 | 0.6% | 83% | |
| 124 | 6% | 82% | |
| 125 | 24% | 76% | |
| 126 | 0.5% | 53% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 52% | |
| 128 | 5% | 52% | |
| 129 | 1.1% | 46% | |
| 130 | 0.9% | 45% | |
| 131 | 0.8% | 44% | |
| 132 | 24% | 44% | |
| 133 | 1.5% | 20% | |
| 134 | 2% | 19% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 16% | |
| 136 | 2% | 16% | |
| 137 | 1.0% | 14% | |
| 138 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 139 | 2% | 12% | |
| 140 | 0.8% | 10% | |
| 141 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 142 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 143 | 3% | 8% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 146 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 151 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | 0% | 100% | |
| 98 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 102 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 103 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 105 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 107 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 108 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 109 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 110 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 111 | 2% | 95% | |
| 112 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 113 | 3% | 92% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 89% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 88% | |
| 116 | 4% | 88% | |
| 117 | 1.2% | 84% | |
| 118 | 0.9% | 83% | |
| 119 | 3% | 82% | |
| 120 | 26% | 80% | |
| 121 | 2% | 53% | |
| 122 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 123 | 3% | 47% | |
| 124 | 4% | 44% | |
| 125 | 24% | 40% | |
| 126 | 2% | 16% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 14% | |
| 128 | 3% | 14% | |
| 129 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 130 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 132 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 134 | 2% | 8% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 137 | 2% | 5% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 139 | 2% | 4% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 102 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 103 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 104 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 105 | 3% | 98% | |
| 106 | 0% | 96% | |
| 107 | 2% | 96% | |
| 108 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 110 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 111 | 2% | 90% | |
| 112 | 3% | 88% | |
| 113 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 114 | 0.8% | 85% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 116 | 2% | 84% | |
| 117 | 1.2% | 82% | |
| 118 | 0.7% | 81% | |
| 119 | 3% | 80% | |
| 120 | 25% | 77% | |
| 121 | 2% | 52% | |
| 122 | 5% | 51% | Median |
| 123 | 3% | 46% | |
| 124 | 4% | 43% | |
| 125 | 25% | 39% | |
| 126 | 2% | 14% | |
| 127 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 128 | 3% | 12% | |
| 129 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 130 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 133 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 134 | 2% | 7% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 136 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 137 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 138 | 0% | 3% | Last Result |
| 139 | 2% | 3% | |
| 140 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 141 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 143 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 144 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Estymator
- Commissioner(s): DoRzeczy.pl
- Fieldwork period: 21–22 February 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1009
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.01%