Opinion Poll by Estymator for DoRzeczy.pl, 4–5 April 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość 37.6% 39.4% 37.6–41.2% 37.1–41.7% 36.6–42.2% 35.8–43.0%
Platforma Obywatelska 24.1% 28.3% 26.7–30.0% 26.2–30.5% 25.8–30.9% 25.1–31.7%
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej 7.6% 9.3% 8.3–10.4% 8.0–10.7% 7.8–11.0% 7.3–11.6%
Kukiz’15 8.8% 8.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.7–10.4% 7.5–10.7% 7.0–11.2%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe 5.1% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.8–7.5% 4.5–8.0%
.Nowoczesna 7.6% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.4% 3.3–5.6% 3.0–6.0%
Lewica Razem 3.6% 2.1% 1.6–2.7% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.4%
KORWiN 4.8% 1.4% 1.1–2.0% 1.0–2.1% 0.9–2.2% 0.7–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość 235 216 206–227 205–229 201–233 196–241
Platforma Obywatelska 138 150 139–160 137–164 135–165 130–168
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej 0 36 30–43 29–45 28–45 27–48
Kukiz’15 42 39 30–44 27–45 25–47 21–49
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe 16 19 12–24 12–24 0–26 0–27
.Nowoczesna 28 0 0–7 0–8 0–9 0–11
Lewica Razem 0 0 0 0 0 0
KORWiN 0 0 0 0 0 0

Prawo i Sprawiedliwość

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
191 0.1% 100%  
192 0.1% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0% 99.7%  
195 0% 99.7%  
196 0.3% 99.7%  
197 0.1% 99.4%  
198 1.0% 99.3%  
199 0.3% 98%  
200 0.2% 98%  
201 0.4% 98%  
202 0.5% 97%  
203 0.4% 97%  
204 1.5% 97%  
205 3% 95%  
206 3% 92%  
207 4% 89%  
208 1.1% 86%  
209 3% 84%  
210 4% 82%  
211 16% 78%  
212 4% 62%  
213 1.4% 58%  
214 0.6% 57%  
215 6% 56%  
216 0.9% 51% Median
217 17% 50%  
218 3% 32%  
219 2% 30%  
220 0.6% 28%  
221 2% 27%  
222 3% 26%  
223 4% 23%  
224 4% 19%  
225 2% 15%  
226 2% 13%  
227 2% 11%  
228 3% 9%  
229 0.8% 5%  
230 0.8% 5%  
231 0.3% 4% Majority
232 0.3% 4%  
233 1.2% 3%  
234 0.2% 2%  
235 0.2% 2% Last Result
236 0.2% 2%  
237 0.3% 2%  
238 0.1% 1.2%  
239 0.2% 1.1%  
240 0.4% 0.9%  
241 0.1% 0.5%  
242 0.2% 0.5%  
243 0.1% 0.2%  
244 0.1% 0.2%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0.2% 99.8%  
130 0.5% 99.6%  
131 0.1% 99.1%  
132 0.5% 99.0%  
133 0.4% 98.5%  
134 0.4% 98%  
135 0.4% 98%  
136 0.9% 97%  
137 4% 96%  
138 0.6% 92% Last Result
139 3% 92%  
140 0.5% 89%  
141 3% 88%  
142 4% 85%  
143 1.2% 81%  
144 2% 80%  
145 3% 77%  
146 2% 74%  
147 2% 72%  
148 5% 69%  
149 8% 64%  
150 7% 56% Median
151 3% 49%  
152 4% 47%  
153 3% 43%  
154 7% 40%  
155 1.2% 32%  
156 11% 31%  
157 3% 20%  
158 4% 17%  
159 2% 13%  
160 3% 11%  
161 2% 8%  
162 0.7% 7%  
163 0.4% 6%  
164 2% 6%  
165 3% 4%  
166 0.3% 1.2%  
167 0.2% 0.9%  
168 0.3% 0.7%  
169 0.2% 0.5%  
170 0% 0.2%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0.1% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  

Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 0.4% 99.5%  
28 2% 99.1%  
29 4% 97%  
30 10% 94%  
31 2% 84%  
32 8% 82%  
33 5% 73%  
34 5% 69%  
35 12% 64%  
36 5% 51% Median
37 8% 46%  
38 10% 38%  
39 7% 28%  
40 5% 21%  
41 3% 17%  
42 3% 14%  
43 3% 11%  
44 3% 8%  
45 3% 5%  
46 0.7% 2%  
47 0.5% 1.3%  
48 0.3% 0.7%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Kukiz’15

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0.1% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.8%  
19 0.1% 99.8%  
20 0.1% 99.7%  
21 0.2% 99.6%  
22 0.8% 99.4%  
23 0.4% 98.7%  
24 0.2% 98%  
25 0.6% 98%  
26 2% 97%  
27 0.5% 95%  
28 3% 95%  
29 0.7% 92%  
30 1.2% 91%  
31 1.0% 90%  
32 2% 89%  
33 2% 87%  
34 5% 85%  
35 10% 81%  
36 3% 71%  
37 4% 67%  
38 9% 63%  
39 14% 54% Median
40 15% 40%  
41 5% 25%  
42 4% 21% Last Result
43 5% 17%  
44 4% 12%  
45 5% 8%  
46 0.5% 4%  
47 1.3% 3%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 0% 96%  
9 0% 96%  
10 0% 96%  
11 0.5% 96%  
12 7% 96%  
13 1.4% 89%  
14 8% 87%  
15 4% 79%  
16 2% 75% Last Result
17 6% 73%  
18 8% 67%  
19 11% 58% Median
20 4% 47%  
21 3% 43%  
22 10% 40%  
23 16% 30%  
24 10% 14%  
25 0.6% 4%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.8% 1.2%  
28 0.1% 0.4%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 85% 100% Median
1 0% 15%  
2 0% 15%  
3 0% 15%  
4 0% 15%  
5 0% 15%  
6 2% 15%  
7 5% 13%  
8 5% 8%  
9 0.9% 3%  
10 0.7% 2%  
11 1.4% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0% Last Result

Lewica Razem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

KORWiN

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość 235 216 4% 206–227 205–229 201–233 196–241
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna – Lewica Razem 182 208 0.1% 195–217 191–219 188–222 180–227
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna 182 208 0.1% 195–217 191–219 188–222 180–227
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna 166 188 0% 177–197 175–200 171–202 167–208
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna 182 172 0% 159–180 156–185 153–185 143–190
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna 166 151 0% 141–162 137–165 136–165 132–169
Platforma Obywatelska 138 150 0% 139–160 137–164 135–165 130–168

Prawo i Sprawiedliwość

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
191 0.1% 100%  
192 0.1% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0% 99.7%  
195 0% 99.7%  
196 0.3% 99.7%  
197 0.1% 99.4%  
198 1.0% 99.3%  
199 0.3% 98%  
200 0.2% 98%  
201 0.4% 98%  
202 0.5% 97%  
203 0.4% 97%  
204 1.5% 97%  
205 3% 95%  
206 3% 92%  
207 4% 89%  
208 1.1% 86%  
209 3% 84%  
210 4% 82%  
211 16% 78%  
212 4% 62%  
213 1.4% 58%  
214 0.6% 57%  
215 6% 56%  
216 0.9% 51% Median
217 17% 50%  
218 3% 32%  
219 2% 30%  
220 0.6% 28%  
221 2% 27%  
222 3% 26%  
223 4% 23%  
224 4% 19%  
225 2% 15%  
226 2% 13%  
227 2% 11%  
228 3% 9%  
229 0.8% 5%  
230 0.8% 5%  
231 0.3% 4% Majority
232 0.3% 4%  
233 1.2% 3%  
234 0.2% 2%  
235 0.2% 2% Last Result
236 0.2% 2%  
237 0.3% 2%  
238 0.1% 1.2%  
239 0.2% 1.1%  
240 0.4% 0.9%  
241 0.1% 0.5%  
242 0.2% 0.5%  
243 0.1% 0.2%  
244 0.1% 0.2%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna – Lewica Razem

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0.1% 100%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.8%  
179 0% 99.8%  
180 0.3% 99.8%  
181 0.1% 99.5%  
182 0% 99.4% Last Result
183 0.1% 99.4%  
184 0.2% 99.3%  
185 0.4% 99.1%  
186 0.3% 98.7%  
187 0.8% 98%  
188 0.2% 98%  
189 1.1% 97%  
190 0.3% 96%  
191 1.3% 96%  
192 0.7% 95%  
193 2% 94%  
194 0.7% 92%  
195 4% 91%  
196 1.2% 88%  
197 3% 87%  
198 4% 84%  
199 3% 80%  
200 2% 77%  
201 0.9% 75%  
202 4% 75%  
203 7% 71%  
204 3% 64%  
205 2% 61% Median
206 3% 59%  
207 3% 56%  
208 8% 53%  
209 3% 45%  
210 14% 42%  
211 4% 28%  
212 3% 25%  
213 2% 22%  
214 4% 20%  
215 4% 16%  
216 1.2% 13%  
217 6% 11%  
218 0.3% 5%  
219 1.1% 5%  
220 0.5% 4%  
221 0.6% 4%  
222 1.2% 3%  
223 0.5% 2%  
224 0.1% 1.1%  
225 0.1% 1.0%  
226 0.4% 1.0%  
227 0.3% 0.6%  
228 0.1% 0.3%  
229 0.1% 0.2%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1% Majority
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
175 0.1% 100%  
176 0% 99.9%  
177 0.1% 99.9%  
178 0% 99.8%  
179 0% 99.8%  
180 0.3% 99.8%  
181 0.1% 99.5%  
182 0% 99.4% Last Result
183 0.1% 99.4%  
184 0.2% 99.3%  
185 0.4% 99.1%  
186 0.3% 98.7%  
187 0.8% 98%  
188 0.2% 98%  
189 1.1% 97%  
190 0.3% 96%  
191 1.3% 96%  
192 0.7% 95%  
193 2% 94%  
194 0.7% 92%  
195 4% 91%  
196 1.2% 88%  
197 3% 87%  
198 4% 84%  
199 3% 80%  
200 2% 77%  
201 0.9% 75%  
202 4% 75%  
203 7% 71%  
204 3% 64%  
205 2% 61% Median
206 3% 59%  
207 3% 56%  
208 8% 53%  
209 3% 45%  
210 14% 42%  
211 4% 28%  
212 3% 25%  
213 2% 22%  
214 4% 20%  
215 4% 16%  
216 1.2% 13%  
217 6% 11%  
218 0.3% 5%  
219 1.1% 5%  
220 0.5% 4%  
221 0.6% 4%  
222 1.2% 3%  
223 0.5% 2%  
224 0.1% 1.1%  
225 0.1% 1.0%  
226 0.4% 1.0%  
227 0.3% 0.6%  
228 0.1% 0.3%  
229 0.1% 0.2%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1% Majority
232 0% 0.1%  
233 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0% 100%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.9%  
164 0% 99.8%  
165 0.2% 99.7%  
166 0% 99.6% Last Result
167 0.2% 99.6%  
168 0.1% 99.3%  
169 0.2% 99.3%  
170 0.9% 99.1%  
171 1.2% 98%  
172 0.3% 97%  
173 0.9% 97%  
174 0.5% 96%  
175 3% 95%  
176 1.3% 92%  
177 4% 91%  
178 3% 86%  
179 2% 83%  
180 8% 81%  
181 2% 74%  
182 0.9% 72%  
183 0.8% 71%  
184 2% 70%  
185 2% 69%  
186 9% 66% Median
187 5% 57%  
188 3% 53%  
189 3% 50%  
190 2% 46%  
191 10% 44%  
192 4% 34%  
193 4% 29%  
194 4% 26%  
195 1.1% 22%  
196 5% 20%  
197 6% 15%  
198 2% 9%  
199 2% 7%  
200 2% 5%  
201 0.7% 4%  
202 0.6% 3%  
203 0.5% 2%  
204 0.4% 2%  
205 0.4% 1.5%  
206 0.2% 1.1%  
207 0.2% 0.8%  
208 0.2% 0.6%  
209 0.1% 0.4%  
210 0.1% 0.3%  
211 0.1% 0.2%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.8%  
143 0.5% 99.8%  
144 0.2% 99.4%  
145 0.1% 99.2%  
146 0.2% 99.1%  
147 0.1% 98.9%  
148 0.2% 98.8%  
149 0.4% 98.6%  
150 0.1% 98%  
151 0.2% 98%  
152 0.2% 98%  
153 0.4% 98%  
154 0.7% 97%  
155 0.5% 97%  
156 1.2% 96%  
157 1.1% 95%  
158 2% 94%  
159 2% 91%  
160 7% 89%  
161 0.9% 83%  
162 2% 82%  
163 3% 80%  
164 4% 77%  
165 5% 73%  
166 2% 68%  
167 3% 66%  
168 1.2% 63%  
169 4% 62% Median
170 2% 59%  
171 6% 56%  
172 3% 50%  
173 6% 47%  
174 4% 41%  
175 13% 38%  
176 2% 25%  
177 5% 22%  
178 4% 18%  
179 3% 13%  
180 1.0% 11%  
181 0.6% 9%  
182 0.4% 9% Last Result
183 2% 8%  
184 1.3% 6%  
185 3% 5%  
186 0.7% 2%  
187 0.4% 2%  
188 0.1% 1.2%  
189 0.3% 1.0%  
190 0.2% 0.7%  
191 0.2% 0.5%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.8%  
131 0.1% 99.7%  
132 0.4% 99.6%  
133 0.3% 99.2%  
134 0.4% 98.9%  
135 0.3% 98%  
136 0.8% 98%  
137 4% 97%  
138 0.2% 93%  
139 1.4% 93%  
140 0.5% 92%  
141 2% 91%  
142 4% 89%  
143 0.7% 85%  
144 2% 85%  
145 5% 83%  
146 2% 77%  
147 2% 75%  
148 5% 73%  
149 8% 68%  
150 7% 59% Median
151 3% 52%  
152 2% 49%  
153 3% 47%  
154 7% 44%  
155 1.2% 37%  
156 11% 36%  
157 3% 25%  
158 2% 22%  
159 2% 20%  
160 5% 18%  
161 2% 13%  
162 1.0% 11%  
163 0.6% 10%  
164 2% 9%  
165 5% 7%  
166 0.4% 2% Last Result
167 0.5% 2%  
168 0.4% 1.0%  
169 0.2% 0.7%  
170 0.1% 0.4%  
171 0.1% 0.4%  
172 0.2% 0.3%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.9%  
129 0.2% 99.8%  
130 0.5% 99.6%  
131 0.1% 99.1%  
132 0.5% 99.0%  
133 0.4% 98.5%  
134 0.4% 98%  
135 0.4% 98%  
136 0.9% 97%  
137 4% 96%  
138 0.6% 92% Last Result
139 3% 92%  
140 0.5% 89%  
141 3% 88%  
142 4% 85%  
143 1.2% 81%  
144 2% 80%  
145 3% 77%  
146 2% 74%  
147 2% 72%  
148 5% 69%  
149 8% 64%  
150 7% 56% Median
151 3% 49%  
152 4% 47%  
153 3% 43%  
154 7% 40%  
155 1.2% 32%  
156 11% 31%  
157 3% 20%  
158 4% 17%  
159 2% 13%  
160 3% 11%  
161 2% 8%  
162 0.7% 7%  
163 0.4% 6%  
164 2% 6%  
165 3% 4%  
166 0.3% 1.2%  
167 0.2% 0.9%  
168 0.3% 0.7%  
169 0.2% 0.5%  
170 0% 0.2%  
171 0.1% 0.2%  
172 0.1% 0.1%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations