Opinion Poll by Kantar Millward Brown for TVN and TVN24, 25–26 April 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 33.0% | 31.1–34.9% | 30.6–35.5% | 30.1–35.9% | 29.2–36.9% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 25.0% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% | 22.4–27.8% | 21.6–28.7% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.0–9.2% | 6.7–9.5% | 6.4–9.8% | 6.0–10.4% |
| .Nowoczesna | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 219 | 203–233 | 199–239 | 199–244 | 192–255 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 158 | 147–171 | 144–178 | 142–180 | 134–185 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 38 | 30–47 | 30–49 | 29–51 | 24–54 |
| .Nowoczesna | 28 | 20 | 11–27 | 0–31 | 0–31 | 0–34 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 10 | 0–22 | 0–28 | 0–32 | 0–33 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 19 | 0–25 | 0–27 | 0–28 | 0–32 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–13 | 0–13 | 0–21 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 187 | 0% | 100% | |
| 188 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 190 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 194 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 195 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 199 | 5% | 98% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 201 | 2% | 92% | |
| 202 | 0.4% | 90% | |
| 203 | 2% | 90% | |
| 204 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 205 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 206 | 0.4% | 88% | |
| 207 | 4% | 87% | |
| 208 | 1.0% | 83% | |
| 209 | 0.9% | 82% | |
| 210 | 1.5% | 81% | |
| 211 | 3% | 80% | |
| 212 | 0.5% | 77% | |
| 213 | 0.7% | 76% | |
| 214 | 2% | 76% | |
| 215 | 7% | 74% | |
| 216 | 0.7% | 67% | |
| 217 | 2% | 67% | |
| 218 | 5% | 64% | |
| 219 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 220 | 0.6% | 45% | |
| 221 | 0.8% | 44% | |
| 222 | 2% | 43% | |
| 223 | 6% | 42% | |
| 224 | 0.6% | 36% | |
| 225 | 8% | 35% | |
| 226 | 3% | 27% | |
| 227 | 2% | 25% | |
| 228 | 2% | 23% | |
| 229 | 3% | 21% | |
| 230 | 0.4% | 18% | |
| 231 | 0.7% | 18% | Majority |
| 232 | 7% | 17% | |
| 233 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 234 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 235 | 1.2% | 9% | Last Result |
| 236 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 237 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 238 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 239 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 240 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 242 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 243 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 244 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 245 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 246 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 247 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 248 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 249 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 250 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 251 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 254 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 255 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 133 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 139 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 144 | 3% | 96% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 146 | 2% | 93% | |
| 147 | 2% | 91% | |
| 148 | 2% | 89% | |
| 149 | 5% | 87% | |
| 150 | 1.0% | 81% | |
| 151 | 5% | 80% | |
| 152 | 2% | 76% | |
| 153 | 8% | 74% | |
| 154 | 5% | 65% | |
| 155 | 2% | 60% | |
| 156 | 8% | 59% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 51% | |
| 158 | 0.9% | 51% | Median |
| 159 | 2% | 50% | |
| 160 | 1.0% | 48% | |
| 161 | 7% | 47% | |
| 162 | 4% | 39% | |
| 163 | 1.2% | 35% | |
| 164 | 1.4% | 34% | |
| 165 | 0.9% | 33% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 32% | |
| 167 | 7% | 31% | |
| 168 | 10% | 24% | |
| 169 | 2% | 14% | |
| 170 | 2% | 12% | |
| 171 | 0.6% | 10% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 174 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 175 | 2% | 8% | |
| 176 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 178 | 2% | 6% | |
| 179 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 180 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 183 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 28 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 29 | 2% | 98% | |
| 30 | 11% | 96% | |
| 31 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 32 | 2% | 84% | |
| 33 | 4% | 83% | |
| 34 | 6% | 79% | |
| 35 | 7% | 73% | |
| 36 | 5% | 66% | |
| 37 | 6% | 61% | |
| 38 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 39 | 7% | 47% | |
| 40 | 4% | 40% | |
| 41 | 4% | 36% | |
| 42 | 8% | 33% | |
| 43 | 8% | 25% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 16% | |
| 45 | 1.2% | 15% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 14% | |
| 47 | 3% | 13% | |
| 48 | 4% | 10% | |
| 49 | 2% | 6% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 52 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 93% | |
| 2 | 0% | 93% | |
| 3 | 0% | 93% | |
| 4 | 0% | 93% | |
| 5 | 0% | 93% | |
| 6 | 0% | 93% | |
| 7 | 0% | 93% | |
| 8 | 0% | 93% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 10 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 11 | 2% | 92% | |
| 12 | 10% | 90% | |
| 13 | 3% | 79% | |
| 14 | 11% | 76% | |
| 15 | 2% | 65% | |
| 16 | 3% | 63% | |
| 17 | 7% | 61% | |
| 18 | 2% | 54% | |
| 19 | 1.5% | 52% | |
| 20 | 4% | 50% | Median |
| 21 | 5% | 46% | |
| 22 | 2% | 41% | |
| 23 | 8% | 39% | |
| 24 | 7% | 31% | |
| 25 | 10% | 24% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 27 | 3% | 13% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 10% | Last Result |
| 29 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 31 | 7% | 8% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 43% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 57% | |
| 2 | 0% | 57% | |
| 3 | 0% | 57% | |
| 4 | 0% | 57% | |
| 5 | 0% | 57% | |
| 6 | 0% | 57% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 57% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 57% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 57% | |
| 10 | 8% | 57% | Median |
| 11 | 0.7% | 49% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 48% | |
| 13 | 8% | 47% | |
| 14 | 3% | 40% | |
| 15 | 3% | 36% | |
| 16 | 5% | 33% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 28% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 28% | |
| 19 | 4% | 27% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 23% | |
| 21 | 10% | 22% | |
| 22 | 3% | 13% | |
| 23 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 8% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 30 | 0% | 4% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 32 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 33 | 2% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 45% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 55% | |
| 2 | 0% | 55% | |
| 3 | 0% | 55% | |
| 4 | 0% | 55% | |
| 5 | 0% | 55% | |
| 6 | 0% | 55% | |
| 7 | 0% | 55% | |
| 8 | 0% | 55% | |
| 9 | 0% | 55% | |
| 10 | 0% | 55% | |
| 11 | 0% | 55% | |
| 12 | 0% | 55% | |
| 13 | 0% | 55% | |
| 14 | 0% | 55% | |
| 15 | 0% | 55% | |
| 16 | 0% | 55% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.1% | 55% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 55% | |
| 19 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 20 | 5% | 46% | |
| 21 | 5% | 40% | |
| 22 | 12% | 35% | |
| 23 | 5% | 23% | |
| 24 | 4% | 18% | |
| 25 | 6% | 14% | |
| 26 | 2% | 8% | |
| 27 | 4% | 7% | |
| 28 | 2% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 30 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0% | 11% | |
| 4 | 0% | 11% | |
| 5 | 0% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0% | 11% | |
| 7 | 0% | 11% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 9 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 10 | 1.5% | 10% | |
| 11 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 13 | 5% | 7% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Lewica Razem | 182 | 231 | 53% | 214–246 | 205–248 | 202–250 | 198–258 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 182 | 231 | 53% | 214–246 | 205–248 | 202–250 | 198–258 |
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 219 | 18% | 203–233 | 199–239 | 199–244 | 192–255 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 215 | 14% | 202–234 | 198–235 | 192–242 | 184–249 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 182 | 192 | 0% | 172–206 | 165–206 | 162–209 | 158–217 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 180 | 0% | 162–192 | 161–197 | 160–199 | 147–204 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 158 | 0% | 147–171 | 144–178 | 142–180 | 134–185 |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Lewica Razem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 182 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0% | 100% | |
| 184 | 0% | 100% | |
| 185 | 0% | 100% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 187 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 188 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 189 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 190 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 193 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 194 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 195 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 198 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 202 | 2% | 98% | |
| 203 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 204 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 205 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 206 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 207 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 208 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 209 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 210 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 213 | 0.3% | 90% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 215 | 5% | 90% | |
| 216 | 7% | 85% | |
| 217 | 0.5% | 77% | |
| 218 | 0.7% | 77% | |
| 219 | 1.1% | 76% | |
| 220 | 5% | 75% | |
| 221 | 2% | 70% | |
| 222 | 1.0% | 68% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 67% | |
| 224 | 2% | 67% | |
| 225 | 0.4% | 65% | |
| 226 | 1.2% | 64% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 63% | |
| 228 | 5% | 63% | |
| 229 | 5% | 58% | |
| 230 | 0.5% | 53% | |
| 231 | 11% | 53% | Majority |
| 232 | 2% | 42% | |
| 233 | 3% | 40% | |
| 234 | 6% | 37% | |
| 235 | 8% | 31% | Median |
| 236 | 0.2% | 22% | |
| 237 | 0.6% | 22% | |
| 238 | 0.9% | 22% | |
| 239 | 0.5% | 21% | |
| 240 | 1.4% | 20% | |
| 241 | 3% | 19% | |
| 242 | 1.3% | 16% | |
| 243 | 1.2% | 15% | |
| 244 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 245 | 2% | 13% | |
| 246 | 2% | 11% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 248 | 6% | 9% | |
| 249 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 250 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 251 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 252 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 253 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 255 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 258 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 263 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 265 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 182 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0% | 100% | |
| 184 | 0% | 100% | |
| 185 | 0% | 100% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 187 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 188 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 189 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 190 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 193 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 194 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 195 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 198 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 202 | 2% | 98% | |
| 203 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 204 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 205 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 206 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 207 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 208 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 209 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 210 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 213 | 0.3% | 90% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 215 | 5% | 90% | |
| 216 | 7% | 85% | |
| 217 | 0.5% | 77% | |
| 218 | 0.7% | 77% | |
| 219 | 1.1% | 76% | |
| 220 | 5% | 75% | |
| 221 | 2% | 70% | |
| 222 | 1.0% | 68% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 67% | |
| 224 | 2% | 67% | |
| 225 | 0.4% | 65% | |
| 226 | 1.2% | 64% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 63% | |
| 228 | 5% | 63% | |
| 229 | 5% | 58% | |
| 230 | 0.5% | 53% | |
| 231 | 11% | 53% | Majority |
| 232 | 2% | 42% | |
| 233 | 3% | 40% | |
| 234 | 6% | 37% | |
| 235 | 8% | 31% | Median |
| 236 | 0.2% | 22% | |
| 237 | 0.6% | 22% | |
| 238 | 1.0% | 22% | |
| 239 | 0.5% | 21% | |
| 240 | 1.4% | 20% | |
| 241 | 3% | 19% | |
| 242 | 1.3% | 16% | |
| 243 | 1.2% | 15% | |
| 244 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 245 | 2% | 13% | |
| 246 | 2% | 11% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 248 | 6% | 9% | |
| 249 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 250 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 251 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 252 | 0.3% | 1.3% | |
| 253 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 255 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 258 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 263 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 265 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0% |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 187 | 0% | 100% | |
| 188 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 190 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 194 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 195 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 199 | 5% | 98% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 201 | 2% | 92% | |
| 202 | 0.4% | 90% | |
| 203 | 2% | 90% | |
| 204 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 205 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 206 | 0.4% | 88% | |
| 207 | 4% | 87% | |
| 208 | 1.0% | 83% | |
| 209 | 0.9% | 82% | |
| 210 | 1.5% | 81% | |
| 211 | 3% | 80% | |
| 212 | 0.5% | 77% | |
| 213 | 0.7% | 76% | |
| 214 | 2% | 76% | |
| 215 | 7% | 74% | |
| 216 | 0.7% | 67% | |
| 217 | 2% | 67% | |
| 218 | 5% | 64% | |
| 219 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 220 | 0.6% | 45% | |
| 221 | 0.8% | 44% | |
| 222 | 2% | 43% | |
| 223 | 6% | 42% | |
| 224 | 0.6% | 36% | |
| 225 | 8% | 35% | |
| 226 | 3% | 27% | |
| 227 | 2% | 25% | |
| 228 | 2% | 23% | |
| 229 | 3% | 21% | |
| 230 | 0.4% | 18% | |
| 231 | 0.7% | 18% | Majority |
| 232 | 7% | 17% | |
| 233 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 234 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 235 | 1.2% | 9% | Last Result |
| 236 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 237 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 238 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 239 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 240 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 242 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 243 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 244 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 245 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 246 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 247 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 248 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 249 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 250 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 251 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 254 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 255 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 100% | |
| 172 | 0% | 100% | |
| 173 | 0% | 100% | |
| 174 | 0% | 100% | |
| 175 | 0% | 100% | |
| 176 | 0% | 100% | |
| 177 | 0% | 100% | |
| 178 | 0% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0% | 100% | |
| 180 | 0% | 100% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 182 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 185 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 188 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 192 | 1.1% | 98.5% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 198 | 3% | 97% | |
| 199 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 200 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 201 | 2% | 93% | |
| 202 | 3% | 91% | |
| 203 | 2% | 87% | |
| 204 | 3% | 86% | |
| 205 | 1.1% | 83% | |
| 206 | 0.9% | 82% | |
| 207 | 1.0% | 81% | |
| 208 | 1.0% | 80% | |
| 209 | 4% | 79% | |
| 210 | 5% | 75% | |
| 211 | 4% | 70% | |
| 212 | 8% | 66% | |
| 213 | 3% | 58% | |
| 214 | 2% | 55% | |
| 215 | 6% | 53% | |
| 216 | 10% | 47% | Median |
| 217 | 0.7% | 38% | |
| 218 | 2% | 37% | |
| 219 | 1.0% | 35% | |
| 220 | 4% | 34% | |
| 221 | 3% | 31% | |
| 222 | 1.3% | 28% | |
| 223 | 1.2% | 27% | |
| 224 | 3% | 26% | |
| 225 | 0.3% | 23% | |
| 226 | 6% | 23% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 17% | |
| 228 | 2% | 17% | |
| 229 | 0.6% | 15% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 231 | 0.5% | 14% | Majority |
| 232 | 1.4% | 14% | |
| 233 | 2% | 12% | |
| 234 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 235 | 6% | 10% | |
| 236 | 0% | 4% | |
| 237 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 239 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 240 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 241 | 0% | 3% | |
| 242 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 243 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 244 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 245 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 246 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 247 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 248 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 249 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 250 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 251 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 252 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 253 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 150 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 160 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 162 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 164 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 165 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 169 | 2% | 93% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 172 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 174 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 175 | 0.4% | 89% | |
| 176 | 0.8% | 89% | |
| 177 | 5% | 88% | |
| 178 | 0.6% | 83% | |
| 179 | 0.9% | 82% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 181 | 12% | 81% | |
| 182 | 3% | 70% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.6% | 67% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 66% | |
| 185 | 2% | 66% | |
| 186 | 3% | 64% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 61% | |
| 188 | 1.4% | 60% | |
| 189 | 1.1% | 59% | |
| 190 | 0.9% | 58% | |
| 191 | 1.0% | 57% | |
| 192 | 9% | 56% | |
| 193 | 2% | 46% | |
| 194 | 1.4% | 44% | |
| 195 | 1.4% | 43% | |
| 196 | 3% | 42% | |
| 197 | 5% | 38% | Median |
| 198 | 3% | 33% | |
| 199 | 2% | 30% | |
| 200 | 0.5% | 28% | |
| 201 | 10% | 28% | |
| 202 | 0.3% | 17% | |
| 203 | 4% | 17% | |
| 204 | 0.8% | 13% | |
| 205 | 2% | 12% | |
| 206 | 6% | 11% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 208 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 209 | 2% | 4% | |
| 210 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 212 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 213 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 216 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 142 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 151 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 156 | 0% | 98% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 160 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 161 | 5% | 96% | |
| 162 | 1.5% | 91% | |
| 163 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 164 | 4% | 89% | |
| 165 | 1.3% | 85% | |
| 166 | 2% | 84% | Last Result |
| 167 | 3% | 82% | |
| 168 | 3% | 79% | |
| 169 | 3% | 76% | |
| 170 | 0.6% | 73% | |
| 171 | 3% | 72% | |
| 172 | 0.8% | 69% | |
| 173 | 1.2% | 68% | |
| 174 | 4% | 67% | |
| 175 | 0.9% | 63% | |
| 176 | 1.4% | 62% | |
| 177 | 5% | 61% | |
| 178 | 3% | 55% | Median |
| 179 | 2% | 52% | |
| 180 | 2% | 50% | |
| 181 | 9% | 48% | |
| 182 | 11% | 40% | |
| 183 | 2% | 29% | |
| 184 | 6% | 26% | |
| 185 | 2% | 20% | |
| 186 | 0.7% | 18% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 18% | |
| 188 | 1.1% | 17% | |
| 189 | 0.6% | 16% | |
| 190 | 0.9% | 16% | |
| 191 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 192 | 7% | 14% | |
| 193 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 194 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 197 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 198 | 2% | 4% | |
| 199 | 2% | 3% | |
| 200 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 204 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 133 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.0% | Last Result |
| 139 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 144 | 3% | 96% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 146 | 2% | 93% | |
| 147 | 2% | 91% | |
| 148 | 2% | 89% | |
| 149 | 5% | 87% | |
| 150 | 1.0% | 81% | |
| 151 | 5% | 80% | |
| 152 | 2% | 76% | |
| 153 | 8% | 74% | |
| 154 | 5% | 65% | |
| 155 | 2% | 60% | |
| 156 | 8% | 59% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 51% | |
| 158 | 0.9% | 51% | Median |
| 159 | 2% | 50% | |
| 160 | 1.0% | 48% | |
| 161 | 7% | 47% | |
| 162 | 4% | 39% | |
| 163 | 1.2% | 35% | |
| 164 | 1.4% | 34% | |
| 165 | 0.9% | 33% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 32% | |
| 167 | 7% | 31% | |
| 168 | 10% | 24% | |
| 169 | 2% | 14% | |
| 170 | 2% | 12% | |
| 171 | 0.6% | 10% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 174 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 175 | 2% | 8% | |
| 176 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 178 | 2% | 6% | |
| 179 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 180 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 183 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Millward Brown
- Commissioner(s): TVN and TVN24
- Fieldwork period: 25–26 April 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1004
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.10%