Opinion Poll by CBOS, 10–17 May 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 40.0% | 38.2–41.9% | 37.7–42.4% | 37.2–42.8% | 36.4–43.7% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 19.0% | 17.6–20.5% | 17.2–21.0% | 16.8–21.3% | 16.2–22.1% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.7–11.6% | 8.4–11.9% | 7.9–12.5% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.4–8.0% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.6–6.9% |
| .Nowoczesna | 7.6% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.7% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.1–3.3% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 259 | 248–274 | 242–280 | 239–286 | 233–288 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 113 | 102–123 | 98–125 | 96–130 | 94–143 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 53 | 45–58 | 45–59 | 43–63 | 40–68 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 25 | 13–29 | 0–31 | 0–34 | 0–37 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 17 | 0–23 | 0–24 | 0–24 | 0–28 |
| .Nowoczesna | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–11 | 0–15 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 229 | 0% | 100% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 233 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 234 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 235 | 0.2% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 237 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 238 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 239 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 240 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 241 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 242 | 2% | 96% | |
| 243 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 244 | 2% | 94% | |
| 245 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 246 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 247 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 248 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 249 | 10% | 89% | |
| 250 | 4% | 79% | |
| 251 | 5% | 76% | |
| 252 | 0.8% | 71% | |
| 253 | 1.3% | 70% | |
| 254 | 1.4% | 68% | |
| 255 | 2% | 67% | |
| 256 | 6% | 65% | |
| 257 | 2% | 60% | |
| 258 | 2% | 58% | |
| 259 | 5% | 55% | Median |
| 260 | 0.5% | 50% | |
| 261 | 2% | 49% | |
| 262 | 0.9% | 47% | |
| 263 | 3% | 46% | |
| 264 | 5% | 43% | |
| 265 | 8% | 38% | |
| 266 | 6% | 30% | |
| 267 | 3% | 24% | |
| 268 | 1.2% | 21% | |
| 269 | 2% | 19% | |
| 270 | 1.1% | 18% | |
| 271 | 1.0% | 16% | |
| 272 | 2% | 15% | |
| 273 | 1.0% | 14% | |
| 274 | 3% | 13% | |
| 275 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 276 | 2% | 9% | |
| 277 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 278 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 279 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 280 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 281 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 282 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 284 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 285 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 286 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 288 | 2% | 2% | |
| 289 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 292 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 293 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 294 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 96 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 98 | 4% | 97% | |
| 99 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 101 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 102 | 2% | 91% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 89% | |
| 104 | 3% | 89% | |
| 105 | 1.1% | 86% | |
| 106 | 3% | 85% | |
| 107 | 3% | 82% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 79% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 78% | |
| 110 | 6% | 78% | |
| 111 | 2% | 72% | |
| 112 | 14% | 70% | |
| 113 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 114 | 3% | 47% | |
| 115 | 6% | 44% | |
| 116 | 3% | 38% | |
| 117 | 9% | 36% | |
| 118 | 2% | 27% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 25% | |
| 120 | 5% | 24% | |
| 121 | 1.3% | 19% | |
| 122 | 7% | 18% | |
| 123 | 5% | 11% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 125 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 126 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 136 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 42 | 0.7% | 98.9% | Last Result |
| 43 | 2% | 98% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 45 | 11% | 96% | |
| 46 | 8% | 84% | |
| 47 | 9% | 76% | |
| 48 | 5% | 67% | |
| 49 | 6% | 62% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 56% | |
| 51 | 2% | 55% | |
| 52 | 1.2% | 53% | |
| 53 | 6% | 52% | Median |
| 54 | 17% | 46% | |
| 55 | 12% | 29% | |
| 56 | 4% | 18% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 58 | 2% | 12% | |
| 59 | 5% | 10% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 63 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 93% | |
| 2 | 0% | 93% | |
| 3 | 0% | 93% | |
| 4 | 0% | 93% | |
| 5 | 0% | 93% | |
| 6 | 0% | 93% | |
| 7 | 0% | 93% | |
| 8 | 0% | 93% | |
| 9 | 0% | 93% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 11 | 0% | 93% | |
| 12 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 13 | 5% | 92% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 86% | |
| 15 | 2% | 85% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 84% | |
| 17 | 3% | 83% | |
| 18 | 2% | 80% | |
| 19 | 2% | 78% | |
| 20 | 2% | 75% | |
| 21 | 1.0% | 73% | |
| 22 | 9% | 72% | |
| 23 | 4% | 64% | |
| 24 | 3% | 59% | |
| 25 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 26 | 6% | 44% | |
| 27 | 10% | 38% | |
| 28 | 14% | 28% | |
| 29 | 5% | 14% | |
| 30 | 2% | 9% | |
| 31 | 3% | 7% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 40% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 60% | |
| 2 | 0% | 60% | |
| 3 | 0% | 60% | |
| 4 | 0% | 60% | |
| 5 | 0% | 60% | |
| 6 | 0% | 60% | |
| 7 | 0% | 60% | |
| 8 | 0% | 60% | |
| 9 | 0% | 60% | |
| 10 | 0% | 60% | |
| 11 | 0% | 60% | |
| 12 | 0% | 60% | |
| 13 | 0% | 60% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 60% | |
| 15 | 2% | 60% | |
| 16 | 6% | 58% | Last Result |
| 17 | 4% | 52% | Median |
| 18 | 4% | 48% | |
| 19 | 17% | 44% | |
| 20 | 6% | 27% | |
| 21 | 9% | 20% | |
| 22 | 1.1% | 12% | |
| 23 | 5% | 11% | |
| 24 | 3% | 5% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 13 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 259 | 99.9% | 248–274 | 242–280 | 239–286 | 233–288 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna – Lewica Razem | 182 | 148 | 0% | 135–164 | 128–165 | 118–169 | 113–177 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 148 | 0% | 135–164 | 128–165 | 118–169 | 113–177 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 137 | 0% | 124–150 | 118–151 | 113–156 | 113–164 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 126 | 0% | 113–138 | 108–142 | 102–145 | 98–152 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 113 | 0% | 103–123 | 98–126 | 97–132 | 94–143 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 113 | 0% | 102–123 | 98–125 | 96–130 | 94–143 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 229 | 0% | 100% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 233 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 234 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 235 | 0.2% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 237 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 238 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 239 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 240 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 241 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 242 | 2% | 96% | |
| 243 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 244 | 2% | 94% | |
| 245 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 246 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 247 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 248 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 249 | 10% | 89% | |
| 250 | 4% | 79% | |
| 251 | 5% | 76% | |
| 252 | 0.8% | 71% | |
| 253 | 1.3% | 70% | |
| 254 | 1.4% | 68% | |
| 255 | 2% | 67% | |
| 256 | 6% | 65% | |
| 257 | 2% | 60% | |
| 258 | 2% | 58% | |
| 259 | 5% | 55% | Median |
| 260 | 0.5% | 50% | |
| 261 | 2% | 49% | |
| 262 | 0.9% | 47% | |
| 263 | 3% | 46% | |
| 264 | 5% | 43% | |
| 265 | 8% | 38% | |
| 266 | 6% | 30% | |
| 267 | 3% | 24% | |
| 268 | 1.2% | 21% | |
| 269 | 2% | 19% | |
| 270 | 1.1% | 18% | |
| 271 | 1.0% | 16% | |
| 272 | 2% | 15% | |
| 273 | 1.0% | 14% | |
| 274 | 3% | 13% | |
| 275 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 276 | 2% | 9% | |
| 277 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 278 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 279 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 280 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 281 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 282 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 284 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 285 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 286 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 287 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 288 | 2% | 2% | |
| 289 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 290 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 291 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 292 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 293 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 294 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna – Lewica Razem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0% | 98% | |
| 115 | 0% | 98% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 119 | 0% | 97% | |
| 120 | 0% | 97% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 124 | 0% | 96% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 126 | 0% | 96% | |
| 127 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 131 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 132 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 133 | 2% | 93% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 135 | 2% | 91% | |
| 136 | 1.1% | 89% | |
| 137 | 3% | 87% | |
| 138 | 2% | 84% | |
| 139 | 3% | 83% | |
| 140 | 0.8% | 80% | |
| 141 | 7% | 79% | |
| 142 | 0.7% | 72% | |
| 143 | 2% | 71% | |
| 144 | 1.1% | 69% | |
| 145 | 0.5% | 68% | |
| 146 | 2% | 68% | |
| 147 | 12% | 66% | |
| 148 | 6% | 55% | |
| 149 | 0.9% | 49% | |
| 150 | 10% | 48% | |
| 151 | 1.3% | 38% | |
| 152 | 2% | 37% | |
| 153 | 2% | 34% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 33% | |
| 155 | 3% | 32% | Median |
| 156 | 10% | 30% | |
| 157 | 2% | 20% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 18% | |
| 159 | 1.2% | 17% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 16% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 163 | 2% | 15% | |
| 164 | 7% | 13% | |
| 165 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 169 | 2% | 4% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 177 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 112 | 0% | 100% | |
| 113 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0% | 98% | |
| 115 | 0% | 98% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 119 | 0% | 97% | |
| 120 | 0% | 97% | |
| 121 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 122 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 123 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 124 | 0% | 96% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 126 | 0% | 96% | |
| 127 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 128 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 129 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 130 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 131 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 132 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 133 | 2% | 93% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 135 | 2% | 91% | |
| 136 | 1.1% | 89% | |
| 137 | 3% | 87% | |
| 138 | 2% | 84% | |
| 139 | 3% | 83% | |
| 140 | 0.8% | 80% | |
| 141 | 7% | 79% | |
| 142 | 0.7% | 72% | |
| 143 | 2% | 71% | |
| 144 | 1.1% | 69% | |
| 145 | 0.5% | 68% | |
| 146 | 2% | 68% | |
| 147 | 12% | 66% | |
| 148 | 6% | 55% | |
| 149 | 0.9% | 49% | |
| 150 | 10% | 48% | |
| 151 | 1.3% | 38% | |
| 152 | 2% | 37% | |
| 153 | 2% | 34% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 33% | |
| 155 | 3% | 32% | Median |
| 156 | 10% | 30% | |
| 157 | 2% | 20% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 18% | |
| 159 | 1.2% | 17% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 16% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 163 | 2% | 15% | |
| 164 | 7% | 13% | |
| 165 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 169 | 2% | 4% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 177 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 105 | 0% | 100% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 107 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 109 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 110 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 113 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 115 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 117 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 118 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 119 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 121 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 124 | 3% | 91% | |
| 125 | 0.4% | 89% | |
| 126 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 127 | 5% | 88% | |
| 128 | 8% | 83% | |
| 129 | 2% | 75% | |
| 130 | 2% | 73% | |
| 131 | 3% | 72% | |
| 132 | 6% | 69% | |
| 133 | 1.3% | 62% | |
| 134 | 2% | 61% | |
| 135 | 2% | 59% | |
| 136 | 0.7% | 57% | |
| 137 | 14% | 57% | |
| 138 | 2% | 43% | Median |
| 139 | 4% | 40% | |
| 140 | 2% | 37% | |
| 141 | 6% | 35% | |
| 142 | 1.1% | 29% | |
| 143 | 4% | 28% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 23% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 23% | |
| 146 | 1.3% | 23% | |
| 147 | 3% | 21% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 149 | 0.8% | 17% | |
| 150 | 9% | 17% | |
| 151 | 3% | 8% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 154 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 156 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 98 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 99 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 100 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 101 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 102 | 1.3% | 98.6% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 104 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 105 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 108 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 110 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 112 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 113 | 6% | 94% | |
| 114 | 3% | 87% | |
| 115 | 0.8% | 85% | |
| 116 | 3% | 84% | |
| 117 | 4% | 82% | |
| 118 | 4% | 78% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 73% | |
| 120 | 2% | 72% | |
| 121 | 1.4% | 70% | |
| 122 | 6% | 68% | |
| 123 | 5% | 62% | |
| 124 | 2% | 57% | |
| 125 | 3% | 55% | |
| 126 | 6% | 52% | |
| 127 | 2% | 46% | |
| 128 | 2% | 44% | |
| 129 | 0.9% | 43% | |
| 130 | 1.2% | 42% | Median |
| 131 | 10% | 40% | |
| 132 | 2% | 31% | |
| 133 | 5% | 29% | |
| 134 | 5% | 24% | |
| 135 | 0.9% | 19% | |
| 136 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 137 | 3% | 17% | |
| 138 | 6% | 14% | |
| 139 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 140 | 2% | 7% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 142 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 143 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 145 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 146 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 147 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92 | 0% | 100% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 96 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 97 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 98 | 4% | 97% | |
| 99 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 101 | 1.1% | 93% | |
| 102 | 2% | 92% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 104 | 3% | 90% | |
| 105 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 106 | 3% | 86% | |
| 107 | 3% | 83% | |
| 108 | 0.7% | 80% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 79% | |
| 110 | 6% | 79% | |
| 111 | 2% | 73% | |
| 112 | 14% | 71% | |
| 113 | 9% | 58% | Median |
| 114 | 3% | 48% | |
| 115 | 5% | 46% | |
| 116 | 3% | 40% | |
| 117 | 8% | 38% | |
| 118 | 2% | 29% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 27% | |
| 120 | 5% | 26% | |
| 121 | 1.4% | 21% | |
| 122 | 7% | 20% | |
| 123 | 5% | 13% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 125 | 2% | 8% | |
| 126 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 127 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 129 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 132 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 138 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 145 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 146 | 0% | 0% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0% | |
| 148 | 0% | 0% | |
| 149 | 0% | 0% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 0% | 100% | |
| 92 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 93 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 94 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 95 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 96 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 97 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 98 | 4% | 97% | |
| 99 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 101 | 1.1% | 92% | |
| 102 | 2% | 91% | |
| 103 | 0.5% | 89% | |
| 104 | 3% | 89% | |
| 105 | 1.1% | 86% | |
| 106 | 3% | 85% | |
| 107 | 3% | 82% | |
| 108 | 0.6% | 79% | |
| 109 | 0.4% | 78% | |
| 110 | 6% | 78% | |
| 111 | 2% | 72% | |
| 112 | 14% | 70% | |
| 113 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 114 | 3% | 47% | |
| 115 | 6% | 44% | |
| 116 | 3% | 38% | |
| 117 | 9% | 36% | |
| 118 | 2% | 27% | |
| 119 | 0.9% | 25% | |
| 120 | 5% | 24% | |
| 121 | 1.3% | 19% | |
| 122 | 7% | 18% | |
| 123 | 5% | 11% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 125 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 126 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 128 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 129 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 131 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 132 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 135 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 136 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 137 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 142 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 143 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 144 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: CBOS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 10–17 May 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1170
- Simulations done: 262,144
- Error estimate: 0.93%