Opinion Poll by Kantar Millward Brown for TVN and TVN24, 28–29 May 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 36.0% | 34.0–38.0% | 33.5–38.5% | 33.0–39.0% | 32.1–39.9% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 28.0% | 26.2–29.8% | 25.7–30.4% | 25.3–30.8% | 24.4–31.7% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| .Nowoczesna | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 241 | 223–256 | 221–261 | 216–263 | 209–270 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 180 | 166–192 | 159–195 | 156–199 | 152–209 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 25 | 10–32 | 0–36 | 0–37 | 0–42 |
| .Nowoczesna | 28 | 0 | 0–20 | 0–22 | 0–22 | 0–29 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 0 | 0–27 | 0–27 | 0–28 | 0–31 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–20 | 0–24 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–11 | 0–17 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 201 | 0% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 203 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 204 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 206 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 208 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 210 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 212 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 213 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 214 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 215 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 216 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 217 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 218 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 220 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 222 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 223 | 4% | 94% | |
| 224 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 225 | 3% | 89% | |
| 226 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 227 | 5% | 86% | |
| 228 | 0.9% | 81% | |
| 229 | 0.6% | 80% | |
| 230 | 2% | 79% | |
| 231 | 1.2% | 77% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.6% | 76% | |
| 233 | 2% | 76% | |
| 234 | 0.6% | 74% | |
| 235 | 2% | 73% | Last Result |
| 236 | 1.0% | 72% | |
| 237 | 2% | 71% | |
| 238 | 8% | 68% | |
| 239 | 0.7% | 60% | |
| 240 | 8% | 60% | |
| 241 | 3% | 51% | Median |
| 242 | 2% | 48% | |
| 243 | 0.2% | 47% | |
| 244 | 0.2% | 46% | |
| 245 | 6% | 46% | |
| 246 | 0.8% | 40% | |
| 247 | 9% | 39% | |
| 248 | 6% | 30% | |
| 249 | 0.8% | 24% | |
| 250 | 0.2% | 23% | |
| 251 | 0.4% | 23% | |
| 252 | 1.0% | 22% | |
| 253 | 3% | 22% | |
| 254 | 6% | 18% | |
| 255 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 256 | 3% | 12% | |
| 257 | 3% | 9% | |
| 258 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 259 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 260 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 261 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 262 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 263 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 265 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 266 | 0% | 2% | |
| 267 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 270 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 274 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 279 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 280 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 159 | 2% | 97% | |
| 160 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 165 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 166 | 1.5% | 90% | |
| 167 | 6% | 89% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 83% | |
| 169 | 2% | 82% | |
| 170 | 11% | 80% | |
| 171 | 0.7% | 69% | |
| 172 | 3% | 69% | |
| 173 | 0.6% | 65% | |
| 174 | 0.9% | 65% | |
| 175 | 8% | 64% | |
| 176 | 2% | 56% | |
| 177 | 1.1% | 54% | |
| 178 | 2% | 53% | |
| 179 | 0.4% | 51% | |
| 180 | 1.0% | 51% | Median |
| 181 | 9% | 50% | |
| 182 | 1.1% | 41% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 40% | |
| 184 | 5% | 39% | |
| 185 | 2% | 35% | |
| 186 | 5% | 33% | |
| 187 | 6% | 27% | |
| 188 | 0.6% | 21% | |
| 189 | 4% | 21% | |
| 190 | 0.7% | 17% | |
| 191 | 5% | 16% | |
| 192 | 3% | 11% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 195 | 4% | 8% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 197 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 199 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 200 | 0% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 92% | |
| 2 | 0% | 92% | |
| 3 | 0% | 92% | |
| 4 | 0% | 92% | |
| 5 | 0% | 92% | |
| 6 | 0% | 92% | |
| 7 | 0% | 92% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 10 | 2% | 91% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 89% | |
| 13 | 5% | 88% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 83% | |
| 15 | 4% | 82% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 78% | |
| 17 | 2% | 78% | |
| 18 | 5% | 75% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 70% | |
| 20 | 2% | 69% | |
| 21 | 3% | 67% | |
| 22 | 4% | 64% | |
| 23 | 3% | 60% | |
| 24 | 1.3% | 57% | |
| 25 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 26 | 16% | 48% | |
| 27 | 5% | 32% | |
| 28 | 3% | 27% | |
| 29 | 3% | 23% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 20% | |
| 31 | 10% | 20% | |
| 32 | 2% | 10% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 5% | |
| 37 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 51% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 49% | |
| 2 | 0% | 49% | |
| 3 | 0% | 49% | |
| 4 | 0% | 49% | |
| 5 | 0% | 49% | |
| 6 | 0% | 49% | |
| 7 | 0% | 49% | |
| 8 | 0% | 49% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 49% | |
| 10 | 2% | 49% | |
| 11 | 5% | 47% | |
| 12 | 7% | 42% | |
| 13 | 9% | 36% | |
| 14 | 4% | 26% | |
| 15 | 6% | 22% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 16% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 20 | 4% | 14% | |
| 21 | 2% | 10% | |
| 22 | 6% | 8% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 29 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 62% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 38% | |
| 2 | 0% | 38% | |
| 3 | 0% | 38% | |
| 4 | 0% | 38% | |
| 5 | 0% | 38% | |
| 6 | 0% | 38% | |
| 7 | 0% | 38% | |
| 8 | 0% | 38% | |
| 9 | 0% | 38% | |
| 10 | 0% | 38% | |
| 11 | 0% | 38% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 38% | |
| 13 | 3% | 38% | |
| 14 | 4% | 34% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 30% | |
| 16 | 2% | 29% | |
| 17 | 2% | 28% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 25% | |
| 19 | 1.5% | 24% | |
| 20 | 1.2% | 23% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 22% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 21% | |
| 23 | 1.2% | 21% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 20% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 19% | |
| 26 | 5% | 19% | |
| 27 | 10% | 13% | |
| 28 | 2% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 5% | |
| 14 | 0% | 5% | |
| 15 | 0% | 5% | |
| 16 | 0% | 5% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 9 | 4% | 7% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 241 | 77% | 223–256 | 221–261 | 216–263 | 209–270 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Lewica Razem | 182 | 194 | 0.3% | 177–215 | 175–216 | 172–219 | 167–230 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 182 | 194 | 0.3% | 177–215 | 175–216 | 172–219 | 167–230 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 166 | 194 | 0.1% | 175–215 | 175–215 | 170–217 | 162–227 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 187 | 0% | 170–203 | 169–212 | 167–215 | 158–215 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 182 | 188 | 0% | 170–204 | 170–213 | 167–215 | 159–218 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 180 | 0% | 166–192 | 159–195 | 156–199 | 152–209 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 201 | 0% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 203 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 204 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 206 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 208 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 210 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 212 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 213 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 214 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 215 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 216 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 217 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 218 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 220 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 222 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 223 | 4% | 94% | |
| 224 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 225 | 3% | 89% | |
| 226 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 227 | 5% | 86% | |
| 228 | 0.9% | 81% | |
| 229 | 0.6% | 80% | |
| 230 | 2% | 79% | |
| 231 | 1.2% | 77% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.6% | 76% | |
| 233 | 2% | 76% | |
| 234 | 0.6% | 74% | |
| 235 | 2% | 73% | Last Result |
| 236 | 1.0% | 72% | |
| 237 | 2% | 71% | |
| 238 | 8% | 68% | |
| 239 | 0.7% | 60% | |
| 240 | 8% | 60% | |
| 241 | 3% | 51% | Median |
| 242 | 2% | 48% | |
| 243 | 0.2% | 47% | |
| 244 | 0.2% | 46% | |
| 245 | 6% | 46% | |
| 246 | 0.8% | 40% | |
| 247 | 9% | 39% | |
| 248 | 6% | 30% | |
| 249 | 0.8% | 24% | |
| 250 | 0.2% | 23% | |
| 251 | 0.4% | 23% | |
| 252 | 1.0% | 22% | |
| 253 | 3% | 22% | |
| 254 | 6% | 18% | |
| 255 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 256 | 3% | 12% | |
| 257 | 3% | 9% | |
| 258 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 259 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 260 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 261 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 262 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 263 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 265 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 266 | 0% | 2% | |
| 267 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 270 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 274 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 275 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 276 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 278 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 279 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 280 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Lewica Razem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 159 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 167 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 168 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 169 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 170 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 172 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 174 | 0% | 96% | |
| 175 | 6% | 96% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 177 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 89% | Median |
| 181 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 182 | 3% | 89% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 184 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 185 | 2% | 84% | |
| 186 | 5% | 83% | |
| 187 | 7% | 78% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 71% | |
| 189 | 6% | 71% | |
| 190 | 0.6% | 64% | |
| 191 | 3% | 64% | |
| 192 | 3% | 61% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 57% | |
| 194 | 8% | 57% | |
| 195 | 2% | 49% | |
| 196 | 0.8% | 48% | |
| 197 | 8% | 47% | |
| 198 | 3% | 39% | |
| 199 | 6% | 36% | |
| 200 | 0.9% | 30% | |
| 201 | 0.7% | 29% | |
| 202 | 0.6% | 28% | |
| 203 | 3% | 28% | |
| 204 | 0.9% | 25% | |
| 205 | 3% | 24% | |
| 206 | 0.4% | 21% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 21% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 21% | |
| 209 | 3% | 20% | |
| 210 | 0.5% | 17% | |
| 211 | 0.9% | 17% | |
| 212 | 1.4% | 16% | |
| 213 | 1.1% | 15% | |
| 214 | 0.5% | 14% | |
| 215 | 8% | 13% | |
| 216 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 217 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 218 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 219 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 220 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 223 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 225 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 227 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 229 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 230 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 232 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 159 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 167 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 168 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 169 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 170 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 172 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 174 | 0% | 96% | |
| 175 | 6% | 96% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 177 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 89% | Median |
| 181 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 182 | 3% | 89% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 184 | 0.7% | 85% | |
| 185 | 2% | 84% | |
| 186 | 5% | 83% | |
| 187 | 7% | 78% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 71% | |
| 189 | 6% | 71% | |
| 190 | 0.6% | 64% | |
| 191 | 3% | 64% | |
| 192 | 3% | 61% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 57% | |
| 194 | 8% | 57% | |
| 195 | 2% | 49% | |
| 196 | 0.8% | 48% | |
| 197 | 8% | 47% | |
| 198 | 3% | 39% | |
| 199 | 6% | 36% | |
| 200 | 0.9% | 30% | |
| 201 | 0.7% | 29% | |
| 202 | 0.6% | 28% | |
| 203 | 3% | 28% | |
| 204 | 0.9% | 25% | |
| 205 | 3% | 24% | |
| 206 | 0.4% | 21% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 21% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 21% | |
| 209 | 3% | 20% | |
| 210 | 0.5% | 17% | |
| 211 | 0.9% | 17% | |
| 212 | 1.4% | 16% | |
| 213 | 1.1% | 15% | |
| 214 | 0.5% | 14% | |
| 215 | 8% | 13% | |
| 216 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 217 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 218 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 219 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 220 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 223 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 225 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 227 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 229 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 230 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 232 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 158 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 161 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 168 | 0% | 98.5% | |
| 169 | 0% | 98% | |
| 170 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 172 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 175 | 6% | 96% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 90% | |
| 177 | 1.3% | 90% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 88% | Median |
| 181 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 182 | 3% | 88% | |
| 183 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 184 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 185 | 2% | 83% | |
| 186 | 5% | 82% | |
| 187 | 7% | 77% | |
| 188 | 0.5% | 69% | |
| 189 | 6% | 69% | |
| 190 | 0.9% | 63% | |
| 191 | 3% | 62% | |
| 192 | 4% | 59% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 55% | |
| 194 | 8% | 55% | |
| 195 | 2% | 47% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 45% | |
| 197 | 8% | 45% | |
| 198 | 3% | 37% | |
| 199 | 6% | 34% | |
| 200 | 1.0% | 28% | |
| 201 | 0.8% | 27% | |
| 202 | 0.6% | 26% | |
| 203 | 3% | 25% | |
| 204 | 0.8% | 23% | |
| 205 | 3% | 22% | |
| 206 | 0.5% | 19% | |
| 207 | 0.4% | 19% | |
| 208 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 209 | 3% | 18% | |
| 210 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 211 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 212 | 1.3% | 13% | |
| 213 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 214 | 0.5% | 11% | |
| 215 | 8% | 11% | |
| 216 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 217 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 218 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 219 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 229 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 232 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 158 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 167 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 169 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 170 | 10% | 95% | |
| 171 | 1.4% | 85% | |
| 172 | 3% | 84% | |
| 173 | 2% | 81% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 78% | |
| 175 | 7% | 78% | |
| 176 | 0.3% | 71% | |
| 177 | 1.5% | 71% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 69% | |
| 179 | 1.2% | 69% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 67% | Median |
| 181 | 2% | 67% | |
| 182 | 3% | 65% | |
| 183 | 0.6% | 62% | |
| 184 | 0.7% | 61% | |
| 185 | 2% | 61% | |
| 186 | 6% | 59% | |
| 187 | 6% | 53% | |
| 188 | 3% | 47% | |
| 189 | 8% | 45% | |
| 190 | 0.8% | 36% | |
| 191 | 3% | 36% | |
| 192 | 3% | 32% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 29% | |
| 194 | 8% | 29% | |
| 195 | 2% | 21% | |
| 196 | 0.6% | 20% | |
| 197 | 0.3% | 19% | |
| 198 | 1.1% | 19% | |
| 199 | 6% | 18% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 203 | 3% | 11% | |
| 204 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 205 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 206 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 7% | |
| 209 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 210 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 211 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 213 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 214 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 215 | 4% | 4% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 159 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 161 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 163 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 164 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 167 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 169 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 170 | 10% | 96% | |
| 171 | 1.3% | 86% | |
| 172 | 3% | 85% | |
| 173 | 2% | 82% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 80% | |
| 175 | 7% | 79% | |
| 176 | 0.3% | 72% | |
| 177 | 1.0% | 72% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 71% | |
| 179 | 0.9% | 70% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 70% | Median |
| 181 | 1.3% | 69% | |
| 182 | 3% | 68% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.2% | 64% | |
| 184 | 1.0% | 64% | |
| 185 | 1.5% | 63% | |
| 186 | 6% | 62% | |
| 187 | 6% | 56% | |
| 188 | 3% | 50% | |
| 189 | 9% | 48% | |
| 190 | 0.8% | 39% | |
| 191 | 3% | 38% | |
| 192 | 3% | 35% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 32% | |
| 194 | 8% | 32% | |
| 195 | 2% | 24% | |
| 196 | 0.8% | 23% | |
| 197 | 0.3% | 22% | |
| 198 | 1.1% | 22% | |
| 199 | 6% | 20% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 14% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 202 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 203 | 3% | 13% | |
| 204 | 2% | 11% | |
| 205 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 206 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 208 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 209 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 210 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 211 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 213 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 214 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 215 | 4% | 5% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 218 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 220 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 98.7% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 159 | 2% | 97% | |
| 160 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 165 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 166 | 1.5% | 90% | |
| 167 | 6% | 89% | |
| 168 | 0.4% | 83% | |
| 169 | 2% | 82% | |
| 170 | 11% | 80% | |
| 171 | 0.7% | 69% | |
| 172 | 3% | 69% | |
| 173 | 0.6% | 65% | |
| 174 | 0.9% | 65% | |
| 175 | 8% | 64% | |
| 176 | 2% | 56% | |
| 177 | 1.1% | 54% | |
| 178 | 2% | 53% | |
| 179 | 0.4% | 51% | |
| 180 | 1.0% | 51% | Median |
| 181 | 9% | 50% | |
| 182 | 1.1% | 41% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 40% | |
| 184 | 5% | 39% | |
| 185 | 2% | 35% | |
| 186 | 5% | 33% | |
| 187 | 6% | 27% | |
| 188 | 0.6% | 21% | |
| 189 | 4% | 21% | |
| 190 | 0.7% | 17% | |
| 191 | 5% | 16% | |
| 192 | 3% | 11% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 195 | 4% | 8% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 197 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 199 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 200 | 0% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Millward Brown
- Commissioner(s): TVN and TVN24
- Fieldwork period: 28–29 May 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.78%