Opinion Poll by Estymator for DoRzeczy.pl, 22–23 August 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość |
37.6% |
44.2% |
42.2–46.2% |
41.7–46.8% |
41.2–47.3% |
40.2–48.3% |
Platforma Obywatelska |
24.1% |
24.8% |
23.1–26.6% |
22.7–27.1% |
22.3–27.6% |
21.5–28.5% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej |
7.6% |
8.9% |
7.8–10.2% |
7.5–10.5% |
7.3–10.8% |
6.8–11.4% |
Kukiz’15 |
8.8% |
7.1% |
6.2–8.3% |
5.9–8.6% |
5.7–8.9% |
5.3–9.5% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe |
5.1% |
6.6% |
5.7–7.7% |
5.5–8.1% |
5.2–8.3% |
4.8–8.9% |
.Nowoczesna |
7.6% |
3.4% |
2.7–4.2% |
2.6–4.5% |
2.4–4.7% |
2.1–5.1% |
Lewica Razem |
3.6% |
2.8% |
2.2–3.6% |
2.0–3.8% |
1.9–4.0% |
1.7–4.4% |
KORWiN |
4.8% |
1.5% |
1.1–2.1% |
1.0–2.3% |
0.9–2.4% |
0.7–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
219 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
220 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
221 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
222 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
223 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
224 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
225 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
226 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
227 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
228 |
1.0% |
99.4% |
|
229 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
230 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
231 |
0.8% |
98% |
Majority |
232 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
233 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
234 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
235 |
0.7% |
96% |
Last Result |
236 |
1.3% |
95% |
|
237 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
238 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
239 |
4% |
93% |
|
240 |
0.4% |
89% |
|
241 |
0.7% |
88% |
|
242 |
3% |
88% |
|
243 |
1.2% |
85% |
|
244 |
3% |
83% |
|
245 |
19% |
80% |
|
246 |
24% |
61% |
Median |
247 |
1.0% |
36% |
|
248 |
1.1% |
35% |
|
249 |
0.5% |
34% |
|
250 |
6% |
34% |
|
251 |
4% |
28% |
|
252 |
1.0% |
24% |
|
253 |
2% |
23% |
|
254 |
0.6% |
22% |
|
255 |
0.5% |
21% |
|
256 |
6% |
21% |
|
257 |
1.2% |
15% |
|
258 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
259 |
0.2% |
12% |
|
260 |
1.3% |
12% |
|
261 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
262 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
9% |
|
264 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
265 |
2% |
9% |
|
266 |
4% |
7% |
|
267 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
268 |
2% |
3% |
|
269 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
270 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
271 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
272 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
273 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
275 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
277 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
106 |
0% |
100% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
109 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
110 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
111 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
112 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
113 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
114 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
115 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
116 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
117 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
118 |
2% |
97% |
|
119 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
120 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
121 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
122 |
2% |
94% |
|
123 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
124 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
125 |
3% |
90% |
|
126 |
4% |
87% |
|
127 |
2% |
82% |
|
128 |
7% |
81% |
|
129 |
0.9% |
73% |
|
130 |
3% |
73% |
|
131 |
1.1% |
70% |
|
132 |
4% |
69% |
|
133 |
3% |
65% |
|
134 |
2% |
62% |
|
135 |
2% |
60% |
|
136 |
17% |
57% |
Median |
137 |
3% |
40% |
|
138 |
3% |
37% |
Last Result |
139 |
24% |
34% |
|
140 |
1.2% |
11% |
|
141 |
3% |
9% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
143 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
144 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
145 |
2% |
5% |
|
146 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
147 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
148 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
149 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
150 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
152 |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|
153 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
154 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
155 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
157 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
160 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
19 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
23 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
25 |
2% |
99.7% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
27 |
1.5% |
98% |
|
28 |
2% |
96% |
|
29 |
21% |
94% |
|
30 |
2% |
73% |
|
31 |
3% |
72% |
|
32 |
4% |
69% |
|
33 |
29% |
64% |
Median |
34 |
5% |
35% |
|
35 |
2% |
30% |
|
36 |
7% |
28% |
|
37 |
0.8% |
21% |
|
38 |
2% |
20% |
|
39 |
5% |
18% |
|
40 |
5% |
14% |
|
41 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
42 |
3% |
8% |
|
43 |
2% |
5% |
|
44 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
45 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
46 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
47 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
49 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
5 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
6 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
7 |
0.1% |
98.6% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
98.5% |
|
9 |
2% |
98% |
|
10 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
11 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
12 |
1.0% |
95% |
|
13 |
6% |
94% |
|
14 |
4% |
88% |
|
15 |
0.9% |
84% |
|
16 |
5% |
83% |
|
17 |
1.2% |
78% |
|
18 |
25% |
77% |
|
19 |
3% |
52% |
Median |
20 |
1.4% |
49% |
|
21 |
0.4% |
47% |
|
22 |
2% |
47% |
|
23 |
8% |
45% |
|
24 |
3% |
37% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
35% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
34% |
|
27 |
19% |
34% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
15% |
|
29 |
0.4% |
15% |
|
30 |
0.5% |
15% |
|
31 |
1.2% |
14% |
|
32 |
1.2% |
13% |
|
33 |
3% |
12% |
|
34 |
4% |
9% |
|
35 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
36 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
37 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
38 |
2% |
3% |
|
39 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
40 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
42 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
43 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
3 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
4 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
5 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
6 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
7 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
8 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
9 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
10 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
11 |
1.2% |
99.5% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
13 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
14 |
3% |
98% |
|
15 |
1.0% |
95% |
|
16 |
1.2% |
94% |
Last Result |
17 |
3% |
92% |
|
18 |
6% |
89% |
|
19 |
2% |
83% |
|
20 |
4% |
82% |
|
21 |
1.2% |
78% |
|
22 |
6% |
77% |
|
23 |
27% |
71% |
Median |
24 |
32% |
44% |
|
25 |
2% |
12% |
|
26 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
27 |
4% |
10% |
|
28 |
2% |
5% |
|
29 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
30 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
31 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
33 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
34 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
35 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
36 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
37 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.7% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
4 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
7 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość |
235 |
246 |
98% |
239–262 |
236–266 |
231–268 |
226–272 |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna – Lewica Razem |
182 |
190 |
0% |
179–197 |
175–202 |
171–207 |
168–215 |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna |
182 |
190 |
0% |
179–197 |
175–202 |
171–207 |
168–215 |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna |
166 |
166 |
0% |
157–176 |
155–179 |
151–184 |
148–190 |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna |
182 |
159 |
0% |
144–163 |
140–165 |
134–170 |
131–178 |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna |
166 |
136 |
0% |
125–140 |
119–145 |
117–148 |
112–153 |
Platforma Obywatelska |
138 |
136 |
0% |
125–140 |
119–145 |
117–148 |
112–153 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
217 |
0% |
100% |
|
218 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
219 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
220 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
221 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
222 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
223 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
224 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
225 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
226 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
227 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
228 |
1.0% |
99.4% |
|
229 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
230 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
231 |
0.8% |
98% |
Majority |
232 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
233 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
234 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
235 |
0.7% |
96% |
Last Result |
236 |
1.3% |
95% |
|
237 |
0.9% |
94% |
|
238 |
0.7% |
93% |
|
239 |
4% |
93% |
|
240 |
0.4% |
89% |
|
241 |
0.7% |
88% |
|
242 |
3% |
88% |
|
243 |
1.2% |
85% |
|
244 |
3% |
83% |
|
245 |
19% |
80% |
|
246 |
24% |
61% |
Median |
247 |
1.0% |
36% |
|
248 |
1.1% |
35% |
|
249 |
0.5% |
34% |
|
250 |
6% |
34% |
|
251 |
4% |
28% |
|
252 |
1.0% |
24% |
|
253 |
2% |
23% |
|
254 |
0.6% |
22% |
|
255 |
0.5% |
21% |
|
256 |
6% |
21% |
|
257 |
1.2% |
15% |
|
258 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
259 |
0.2% |
12% |
|
260 |
1.3% |
12% |
|
261 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
262 |
1.0% |
10% |
|
263 |
0.1% |
9% |
|
264 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
265 |
2% |
9% |
|
266 |
4% |
7% |
|
267 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
268 |
2% |
3% |
|
269 |
0% |
1.0% |
|
270 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
271 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
272 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
273 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
275 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
276 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
277 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
278 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
158 |
0% |
100% |
|
159 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
160 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
161 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
162 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
163 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
164 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
165 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
166 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
167 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
168 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
169 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
170 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
171 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
172 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
173 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
174 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
175 |
3% |
96% |
|
176 |
0.5% |
92% |
|
177 |
0.3% |
92% |
|
178 |
1.5% |
92% |
|
179 |
3% |
90% |
|
180 |
0.4% |
87% |
|
181 |
4% |
87% |
|
182 |
1.2% |
82% |
Last Result |
183 |
0.9% |
81% |
|
184 |
0.4% |
80% |
|
185 |
1.1% |
80% |
|
186 |
2% |
79% |
|
187 |
3% |
77% |
|
188 |
21% |
73% |
|
189 |
0.4% |
53% |
|
190 |
5% |
52% |
|
191 |
2% |
48% |
|
192 |
4% |
46% |
Median |
193 |
2% |
41% |
|
194 |
3% |
39% |
|
195 |
3% |
37% |
|
196 |
23% |
33% |
|
197 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
198 |
3% |
10% |
|
199 |
1.2% |
7% |
|
200 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
202 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
203 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
204 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
205 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
206 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
207 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
208 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
209 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
210 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
|
211 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
212 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
213 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
214 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
215 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
216 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
217 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
218 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
219 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
158 |
0% |
100% |
|
159 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
160 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
161 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
162 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
163 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
164 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
165 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
166 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
167 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
168 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
169 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
170 |
0.1% |
99.2% |
|
171 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
172 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
173 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
174 |
0.6% |
96% |
|
175 |
3% |
96% |
|
176 |
0.5% |
92% |
|
177 |
0.3% |
92% |
|
178 |
1.5% |
92% |
|
179 |
3% |
90% |
|
180 |
0.4% |
87% |
|
181 |
4% |
87% |
|
182 |
1.2% |
82% |
Last Result |
183 |
0.9% |
81% |
|
184 |
0.4% |
80% |
|
185 |
1.1% |
80% |
|
186 |
2% |
79% |
|
187 |
3% |
77% |
|
188 |
21% |
73% |
|
189 |
0.4% |
53% |
|
190 |
5% |
52% |
|
191 |
2% |
48% |
|
192 |
4% |
46% |
Median |
193 |
2% |
41% |
|
194 |
3% |
39% |
|
195 |
3% |
37% |
|
196 |
23% |
33% |
|
197 |
0.6% |
11% |
|
198 |
3% |
10% |
|
199 |
1.2% |
7% |
|
200 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
201 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
202 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
203 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
204 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
205 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
206 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
207 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
208 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
209 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
210 |
0.3% |
1.5% |
|
211 |
0.2% |
1.2% |
|
212 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
213 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
214 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
215 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
216 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
217 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
218 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
219 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
220 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
140 |
0% |
100% |
|
141 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
142 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
143 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
144 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
145 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
146 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
147 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
148 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
149 |
0.4% |
99.1% |
|
150 |
0.6% |
98.8% |
|
151 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
152 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
153 |
1.0% |
97% |
|
154 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
155 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
156 |
2% |
95% |
|
157 |
4% |
92% |
|
158 |
0.4% |
88% |
|
159 |
2% |
88% |
|
160 |
2% |
86% |
|
161 |
4% |
84% |
|
162 |
0.9% |
80% |
|
163 |
3% |
79% |
|
164 |
5% |
76% |
|
165 |
17% |
71% |
|
166 |
4% |
54% |
Last Result |
167 |
1.0% |
50% |
|
168 |
4% |
49% |
|
169 |
1.2% |
44% |
Median |
170 |
2% |
43% |
|
171 |
0.7% |
41% |
|
172 |
23% |
41% |
|
173 |
1.4% |
18% |
|
174 |
1.5% |
17% |
|
175 |
4% |
15% |
|
176 |
2% |
11% |
|
177 |
1.0% |
9% |
|
178 |
2% |
8% |
|
179 |
0.5% |
6% |
|
180 |
1.1% |
5% |
|
181 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
182 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
183 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
184 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
185 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
186 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
187 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
188 |
0.7% |
1.5% |
|
189 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
190 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
191 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
192 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
193 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
194 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
195 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
196 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
197 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
198 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
199 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
124 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
125 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
126 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
127 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
128 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
129 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
130 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
131 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
132 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
133 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
134 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
135 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
136 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
137 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
138 |
0.4% |
96% |
|
139 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
140 |
1.4% |
95% |
|
141 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
142 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
143 |
3% |
93% |
|
144 |
0.8% |
91% |
|
145 |
1.2% |
90% |
|
146 |
1.4% |
89% |
|
147 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
148 |
3% |
87% |
|
149 |
2% |
84% |
|
150 |
7% |
82% |
|
151 |
4% |
75% |
|
152 |
0.5% |
71% |
|
153 |
0.5% |
71% |
|
154 |
2% |
70% |
|
155 |
2% |
68% |
|
156 |
3% |
66% |
|
157 |
0.6% |
63% |
|
158 |
4% |
62% |
|
159 |
22% |
58% |
Median |
160 |
3% |
36% |
|
161 |
0.9% |
33% |
|
162 |
2% |
33% |
|
163 |
25% |
30% |
|
164 |
0.1% |
5% |
|
165 |
1.2% |
5% |
|
166 |
0.4% |
4% |
|
167 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
168 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
169 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
170 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
171 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
172 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
173 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
174 |
0.6% |
1.3% |
|
175 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
176 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
177 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
178 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
179 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
180 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
181 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
106 |
0% |
100% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
109 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
110 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
111 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
112 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
113 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
114 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
115 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
116 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
117 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
118 |
2% |
97% |
|
119 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
120 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
121 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
122 |
2% |
94% |
|
123 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
124 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
125 |
3% |
90% |
|
126 |
4% |
87% |
|
127 |
2% |
83% |
|
128 |
7% |
81% |
|
129 |
0.9% |
74% |
|
130 |
3% |
73% |
|
131 |
1.1% |
70% |
|
132 |
4% |
69% |
|
133 |
3% |
65% |
|
134 |
2% |
62% |
|
135 |
3% |
60% |
|
136 |
17% |
57% |
Median |
137 |
3% |
40% |
|
138 |
3% |
37% |
|
139 |
24% |
34% |
|
140 |
1.2% |
11% |
|
141 |
3% |
9% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
143 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
144 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
145 |
2% |
5% |
|
146 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
147 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
148 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
149 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
150 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
152 |
0.7% |
1.3% |
|
153 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
154 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
157 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
160 |
0% |
0% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
106 |
0% |
100% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
109 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
110 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
111 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
112 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
113 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
114 |
0.5% |
99.2% |
|
115 |
0.3% |
98.7% |
|
116 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
117 |
0.8% |
98% |
|
118 |
2% |
97% |
|
119 |
0.7% |
96% |
|
120 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
121 |
0.6% |
95% |
|
122 |
2% |
94% |
|
123 |
0.7% |
92% |
|
124 |
0.7% |
91% |
|
125 |
3% |
90% |
|
126 |
4% |
87% |
|
127 |
2% |
82% |
|
128 |
7% |
81% |
|
129 |
0.9% |
73% |
|
130 |
3% |
73% |
|
131 |
1.1% |
70% |
|
132 |
4% |
69% |
|
133 |
3% |
65% |
|
134 |
2% |
62% |
|
135 |
2% |
60% |
|
136 |
17% |
57% |
Median |
137 |
3% |
40% |
|
138 |
3% |
37% |
Last Result |
139 |
24% |
34% |
|
140 |
1.2% |
11% |
|
141 |
3% |
9% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
6% |
|
143 |
0.6% |
6% |
|
144 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
145 |
2% |
5% |
|
146 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
147 |
0.2% |
3% |
|
148 |
0.6% |
3% |
|
149 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
150 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
1.3% |
|
152 |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|
153 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
154 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
155 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
157 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
160 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Estymator
- Commissioner(s): DoRzeczy.pl
- Fieldwork period: 22–23 August 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1011
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.85%