Opinion Poll by CBOS, 6–13 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość |
37.6% |
43.0% |
41.1–45.0% |
40.6–45.6% |
40.1–46.0% |
39.2–47.0% |
Platforma Obywatelska |
24.1% |
18.0% |
16.6–19.6% |
16.2–20.1% |
15.9–20.5% |
15.2–21.3% |
Kukiz’15 |
8.8% |
7.0% |
6.0–8.1% |
5.8–8.4% |
5.6–8.7% |
5.2–9.2% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe |
5.1% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.9% |
3.2–5.2% |
3.0–5.4% |
2.7–5.9% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej |
7.6% |
4.0% |
3.4–4.9% |
3.2–5.2% |
3.0–5.4% |
2.7–5.9% |
.Nowoczesna |
7.6% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.3–4.0% |
2.1–4.2% |
1.9–4.6% |
KORWiN |
4.8% |
2.0% |
1.5–2.7% |
1.4–2.8% |
1.3–3.0% |
1.1–3.4% |
Lewica Razem |
3.6% |
2.0% |
1.5–2.7% |
1.4–2.8% |
1.3–3.0% |
1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
235 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
269 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
271 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
272 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
273 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
274 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
275 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
276 |
1.5% |
99.1% |
|
277 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
278 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
279 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
280 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
281 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
282 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
283 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
284 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
285 |
0.8% |
95% |
|
286 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
287 |
2% |
94% |
|
288 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
289 |
2% |
91% |
|
290 |
0.5% |
89% |
|
291 |
0.7% |
89% |
|
292 |
2% |
88% |
|
293 |
0.6% |
86% |
|
294 |
3% |
85% |
|
295 |
2% |
82% |
|
296 |
3% |
81% |
|
297 |
1.3% |
78% |
|
298 |
5% |
76% |
|
299 |
7% |
71% |
|
300 |
3% |
64% |
|
301 |
3% |
62% |
|
302 |
2% |
58% |
|
303 |
4% |
56% |
|
304 |
10% |
52% |
Median |
305 |
1.3% |
42% |
|
306 |
1.3% |
41% |
|
307 |
0.2% |
39% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
39% |
|
309 |
8% |
39% |
|
310 |
0.6% |
31% |
|
311 |
0.7% |
31% |
|
312 |
12% |
30% |
|
313 |
0.3% |
18% |
|
314 |
0.8% |
18% |
|
315 |
0.5% |
17% |
|
316 |
2% |
17% |
|
317 |
4% |
15% |
|
318 |
0.1% |
11% |
|
319 |
5% |
11% |
|
320 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
321 |
5% |
6% |
|
322 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
325 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
326 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
327 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
328 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
329 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
330 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
331 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
332 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
333 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
334 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
335 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
337 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
338 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
92 |
0% |
100% |
|
93 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
94 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
95 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
96 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
97 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
98 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
99 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
100 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
101 |
4% |
98.9% |
|
102 |
5% |
94% |
|
103 |
2% |
90% |
|
104 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
105 |
0.2% |
87% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
87% |
|
107 |
0.7% |
86% |
|
108 |
0.2% |
86% |
|
109 |
2% |
85% |
|
110 |
3% |
83% |
|
111 |
2% |
80% |
|
112 |
0.6% |
78% |
|
113 |
6% |
77% |
|
114 |
2% |
71% |
|
115 |
6% |
70% |
|
116 |
9% |
64% |
|
117 |
4% |
55% |
|
118 |
1.1% |
51% |
Median |
119 |
2% |
50% |
|
120 |
0.9% |
48% |
|
121 |
2% |
47% |
|
122 |
4% |
45% |
|
123 |
10% |
41% |
|
124 |
3% |
30% |
|
125 |
15% |
28% |
|
126 |
5% |
13% |
|
127 |
3% |
8% |
|
128 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
129 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
130 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
131 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
132 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
133 |
0% |
4% |
|
134 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
135 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
136 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
137 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
138 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
139 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
140 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
141 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
142 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
143 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
144 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
145 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
146 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
147 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
148 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
149 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
150 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
151 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
152 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
3 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
4 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
5 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
6 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
7 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
8 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
9 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
10 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
11 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
12 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
13 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
14 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
15 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
16 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
19 |
0.4% |
99.4% |
|
20 |
0.3% |
99.0% |
|
21 |
1.1% |
98.7% |
|
22 |
4% |
98% |
|
23 |
8% |
93% |
|
24 |
1.0% |
85% |
|
25 |
0.3% |
84% |
|
26 |
0.8% |
84% |
|
27 |
0.9% |
83% |
|
28 |
0.2% |
82% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
82% |
|
30 |
1.1% |
81% |
|
31 |
1.2% |
80% |
|
32 |
2% |
79% |
|
33 |
11% |
77% |
|
34 |
5% |
67% |
|
35 |
15% |
61% |
Median |
36 |
12% |
46% |
|
37 |
2% |
34% |
|
38 |
0.6% |
32% |
|
39 |
6% |
31% |
|
40 |
1.3% |
25% |
|
41 |
5% |
24% |
|
42 |
12% |
19% |
Last Result |
43 |
3% |
7% |
|
44 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
45 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
46 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
47 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
48 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
49 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
50 |
0.2% |
1.5% |
|
51 |
0.7% |
1.3% |
|
52 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
54 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
87% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
13% |
|
2 |
0% |
13% |
|
3 |
0% |
13% |
|
4 |
0% |
13% |
|
5 |
0% |
13% |
|
6 |
0% |
13% |
|
7 |
0% |
13% |
|
8 |
0% |
13% |
|
9 |
0% |
13% |
|
10 |
0% |
13% |
|
11 |
0% |
13% |
|
12 |
0% |
13% |
|
13 |
0% |
13% |
|
14 |
0% |
13% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
13% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
13% |
Last Result |
17 |
0.2% |
13% |
|
18 |
0.8% |
13% |
|
19 |
6% |
12% |
|
20 |
0.7% |
6% |
|
21 |
3% |
5% |
|
22 |
0.3% |
3% |
|
23 |
2% |
3% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
94% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
6% |
|
2 |
0% |
6% |
|
3 |
0% |
6% |
|
4 |
0% |
6% |
|
5 |
0% |
6% |
|
6 |
0% |
6% |
|
7 |
0% |
6% |
|
8 |
0% |
6% |
|
9 |
0% |
6% |
|
10 |
0% |
6% |
|
11 |
0% |
6% |
|
12 |
0% |
6% |
|
13 |
0% |
6% |
|
14 |
0% |
6% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
16 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
18 |
2% |
4% |
|
19 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
21 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
22 |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
23 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
24 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
27 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
29 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.9% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
4 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
6 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
10 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
11 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość |
235 |
304 |
100% |
289–319 |
285–321 |
277–321 |
274–329 |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna – Lewica Razem |
182 |
123 |
0% |
103–136 |
102–140 |
101–143 |
101–151 |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna |
182 |
123 |
0% |
103–132 |
102–137 |
101–143 |
97–146 |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna |
182 |
123 |
0% |
103–136 |
102–140 |
101–143 |
101–151 |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna |
166 |
120 |
0% |
103–127 |
101–137 |
101–139 |
99–149 |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna |
166 |
119 |
0% |
102–126 |
101–128 |
101–136 |
97–140 |
Platforma Obywatelska |
138 |
118 |
0% |
102–126 |
101–128 |
101–136 |
97–140 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
235 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
100% |
|
264 |
0% |
100% |
|
265 |
0% |
100% |
|
266 |
0% |
100% |
|
267 |
0% |
100% |
|
268 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
269 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
271 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
272 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
273 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
274 |
0.3% |
99.7% |
|
275 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
276 |
1.5% |
99.1% |
|
277 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
278 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
279 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
280 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
281 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
282 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
283 |
0.3% |
96% |
|
284 |
0.3% |
95% |
|
285 |
0.8% |
95% |
|
286 |
0.2% |
94% |
|
287 |
2% |
94% |
|
288 |
0.9% |
92% |
|
289 |
2% |
91% |
|
290 |
0.5% |
89% |
|
291 |
0.7% |
89% |
|
292 |
2% |
88% |
|
293 |
0.6% |
86% |
|
294 |
3% |
85% |
|
295 |
2% |
82% |
|
296 |
3% |
81% |
|
297 |
1.3% |
78% |
|
298 |
5% |
76% |
|
299 |
7% |
71% |
|
300 |
3% |
64% |
|
301 |
3% |
62% |
|
302 |
2% |
58% |
|
303 |
4% |
56% |
|
304 |
10% |
52% |
Median |
305 |
1.3% |
42% |
|
306 |
1.3% |
41% |
|
307 |
0.2% |
39% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
39% |
|
309 |
8% |
39% |
|
310 |
0.6% |
31% |
|
311 |
0.7% |
31% |
|
312 |
12% |
30% |
|
313 |
0.3% |
18% |
|
314 |
0.8% |
18% |
|
315 |
0.5% |
17% |
|
316 |
2% |
17% |
|
317 |
4% |
15% |
|
318 |
0.1% |
11% |
|
319 |
5% |
11% |
|
320 |
0.2% |
6% |
|
321 |
5% |
6% |
|
322 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
323 |
0.1% |
1.0% |
|
324 |
0% |
0.9% |
|
325 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
326 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
327 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
328 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
329 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
330 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
331 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
332 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
333 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
334 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
335 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
336 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
337 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
338 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
339 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
340 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
94 |
0% |
100% |
|
95 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
96 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
97 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
98 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
99 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
100 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
101 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
102 |
4% |
96% |
|
103 |
2% |
91% |
|
104 |
0.2% |
89% |
|
105 |
0.1% |
89% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
89% |
|
107 |
0.6% |
89% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
88% |
|
109 |
1.3% |
88% |
|
110 |
0.1% |
87% |
|
111 |
0.3% |
86% |
|
112 |
0.5% |
86% |
|
113 |
4% |
86% |
|
114 |
1.4% |
82% |
|
115 |
6% |
80% |
|
116 |
9% |
75% |
|
117 |
3% |
66% |
|
118 |
0.8% |
62% |
Median |
119 |
2% |
61% |
|
120 |
1.1% |
60% |
|
121 |
0.3% |
59% |
|
122 |
0.8% |
58% |
|
123 |
10% |
58% |
|
124 |
3% |
47% |
|
125 |
15% |
45% |
|
126 |
5% |
29% |
|
127 |
3% |
24% |
|
128 |
0.7% |
22% |
|
129 |
3% |
21% |
|
130 |
2% |
18% |
|
131 |
0.5% |
16% |
|
132 |
3% |
16% |
|
133 |
0.6% |
13% |
|
134 |
0.6% |
13% |
|
135 |
1.1% |
12% |
|
136 |
1.2% |
11% |
|
137 |
1.3% |
10% |
|
138 |
1.3% |
9% |
|
139 |
2% |
7% |
|
140 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
141 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
143 |
2% |
4% |
|
144 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
145 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
146 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
147 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
148 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
149 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
150 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
151 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
152 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
153 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
154 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
157 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
158 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
159 |
0% |
0% |
|
160 |
0% |
0% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
|
170 |
0% |
0% |
|
171 |
0% |
0% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
174 |
0% |
0% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
176 |
0% |
0% |
|
177 |
0% |
0% |
|
178 |
0% |
0% |
|
179 |
0% |
0% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
181 |
0% |
0% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
92 |
0% |
100% |
|
93 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
94 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
95 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
96 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
97 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
98 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
99 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
100 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
101 |
4% |
99.3% |
|
102 |
5% |
95% |
|
103 |
2% |
91% |
|
104 |
0.5% |
88% |
|
105 |
0.2% |
88% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
88% |
|
107 |
0.6% |
87% |
|
108 |
0.2% |
87% |
|
109 |
1.4% |
87% |
|
110 |
0.1% |
85% |
|
111 |
0.3% |
85% |
|
112 |
0.5% |
85% |
|
113 |
4% |
84% |
|
114 |
1.4% |
80% |
|
115 |
6% |
79% |
|
116 |
9% |
73% |
|
117 |
3% |
64% |
|
118 |
0.9% |
61% |
Median |
119 |
2% |
60% |
|
120 |
1.0% |
58% |
|
121 |
2% |
57% |
|
122 |
2% |
55% |
|
123 |
10% |
53% |
|
124 |
3% |
43% |
|
125 |
15% |
40% |
|
126 |
5% |
25% |
|
127 |
3% |
20% |
|
128 |
0.7% |
18% |
|
129 |
3% |
17% |
|
130 |
2% |
14% |
|
131 |
0.4% |
12% |
|
132 |
2% |
12% |
|
133 |
0.6% |
9% |
|
134 |
0.5% |
9% |
|
135 |
1.2% |
8% |
|
136 |
1.2% |
7% |
|
137 |
1.1% |
6% |
|
138 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
139 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
140 |
0.3% |
4% |
|
141 |
0.8% |
4% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
143 |
2% |
3% |
|
144 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
145 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
146 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
147 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
148 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
149 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
150 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
152 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
153 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
154 |
0% |
0% |
|
155 |
0% |
0% |
|
156 |
0% |
0% |
|
157 |
0% |
0% |
|
158 |
0% |
0% |
|
159 |
0% |
0% |
|
160 |
0% |
0% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
|
170 |
0% |
0% |
|
171 |
0% |
0% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
174 |
0% |
0% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
176 |
0% |
0% |
|
177 |
0% |
0% |
|
178 |
0% |
0% |
|
179 |
0% |
0% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
181 |
0% |
0% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
94 |
0% |
100% |
|
95 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
96 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
97 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
98 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
99 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
100 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
101 |
4% |
99.8% |
|
102 |
4% |
96% |
|
103 |
2% |
91% |
|
104 |
0.2% |
89% |
|
105 |
0.1% |
89% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
89% |
|
107 |
0.6% |
89% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
88% |
|
109 |
1.3% |
88% |
|
110 |
0.1% |
87% |
|
111 |
0.3% |
86% |
|
112 |
0.5% |
86% |
|
113 |
4% |
86% |
|
114 |
1.4% |
82% |
|
115 |
6% |
80% |
|
116 |
9% |
75% |
|
117 |
3% |
66% |
|
118 |
0.8% |
62% |
Median |
119 |
2% |
61% |
|
120 |
1.1% |
60% |
|
121 |
0.3% |
59% |
|
122 |
0.8% |
58% |
|
123 |
10% |
58% |
|
124 |
3% |
47% |
|
125 |
15% |
45% |
|
126 |
5% |
29% |
|
127 |
3% |
24% |
|
128 |
0.7% |
22% |
|
129 |
3% |
21% |
|
130 |
2% |
18% |
|
131 |
0.5% |
16% |
|
132 |
3% |
16% |
|
133 |
0.6% |
13% |
|
134 |
0.6% |
13% |
|
135 |
1.1% |
12% |
|
136 |
1.2% |
11% |
|
137 |
1.3% |
10% |
|
138 |
1.3% |
9% |
|
139 |
2% |
7% |
|
140 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
141 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
143 |
2% |
4% |
|
144 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
145 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
146 |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
147 |
0% |
1.1% |
|
148 |
0.1% |
1.1% |
|
149 |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
150 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
151 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
152 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
153 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
154 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
157 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
158 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
159 |
0% |
0% |
|
160 |
0% |
0% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
|
170 |
0% |
0% |
|
171 |
0% |
0% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
174 |
0% |
0% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
176 |
0% |
0% |
|
177 |
0% |
0% |
|
178 |
0% |
0% |
|
179 |
0% |
0% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
181 |
0% |
0% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
93 |
0% |
100% |
|
94 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
95 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
96 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
97 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
98 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
99 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
100 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
101 |
4% |
99.4% |
|
102 |
5% |
95% |
|
103 |
2% |
90% |
|
104 |
0.2% |
88% |
|
105 |
0.1% |
88% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
88% |
|
107 |
0.6% |
88% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
87% |
|
109 |
2% |
87% |
|
110 |
3% |
85% |
|
111 |
2% |
82% |
|
112 |
0.6% |
80% |
|
113 |
6% |
79% |
|
114 |
2% |
73% |
|
115 |
6% |
72% |
|
116 |
9% |
66% |
|
117 |
4% |
57% |
|
118 |
0.9% |
53% |
Median |
119 |
2% |
52% |
|
120 |
1.0% |
50% |
|
121 |
0.6% |
49% |
|
122 |
3% |
49% |
|
123 |
10% |
46% |
|
124 |
3% |
35% |
|
125 |
15% |
33% |
|
126 |
5% |
17% |
|
127 |
3% |
12% |
|
128 |
0.6% |
10% |
|
129 |
0.3% |
9% |
|
130 |
0.4% |
9% |
|
131 |
0.3% |
8% |
|
132 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
133 |
0% |
8% |
|
134 |
0.2% |
8% |
|
135 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
136 |
1.0% |
7% |
|
137 |
1.0% |
5% |
|
138 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
139 |
2% |
3% |
|
140 |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
141 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
143 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
144 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
145 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
146 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
147 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
148 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
149 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
150 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
152 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
153 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
154 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
155 |
0% |
0% |
|
156 |
0% |
0% |
|
157 |
0% |
0% |
|
158 |
0% |
0% |
|
159 |
0% |
0% |
|
160 |
0% |
0% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
92 |
0% |
100% |
|
93 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
94 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
95 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
96 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
97 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
98 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
99 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
100 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
101 |
4% |
98.9% |
|
102 |
5% |
94% |
|
103 |
2% |
90% |
|
104 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
105 |
0.2% |
87% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
87% |
|
107 |
0.7% |
86% |
|
108 |
0.2% |
86% |
|
109 |
2% |
85% |
|
110 |
3% |
83% |
|
111 |
2% |
80% |
|
112 |
0.6% |
78% |
|
113 |
6% |
78% |
|
114 |
2% |
71% |
|
115 |
6% |
70% |
|
116 |
9% |
64% |
|
117 |
4% |
55% |
|
118 |
1.1% |
51% |
Median |
119 |
2% |
50% |
|
120 |
0.9% |
48% |
|
121 |
2% |
47% |
|
122 |
4% |
45% |
|
123 |
10% |
41% |
|
124 |
3% |
30% |
|
125 |
15% |
28% |
|
126 |
5% |
13% |
|
127 |
3% |
8% |
|
128 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
129 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
130 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
131 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
132 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
133 |
0% |
4% |
|
134 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
135 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
136 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
137 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
138 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
|
139 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
140 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
141 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
142 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
143 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
144 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
145 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
146 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
147 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
148 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
149 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
150 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
151 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
152 |
0% |
0% |
|
153 |
0% |
0% |
|
154 |
0% |
0% |
|
155 |
0% |
0% |
|
156 |
0% |
0% |
|
157 |
0% |
0% |
|
158 |
0% |
0% |
|
159 |
0% |
0% |
|
160 |
0% |
0% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
92 |
0% |
100% |
|
93 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
94 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
95 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
96 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
97 |
0.2% |
99.6% |
|
98 |
0.2% |
99.4% |
|
99 |
0.2% |
99.3% |
|
100 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
101 |
4% |
98.9% |
|
102 |
5% |
94% |
|
103 |
2% |
90% |
|
104 |
0.7% |
87% |
|
105 |
0.2% |
87% |
|
106 |
0.1% |
87% |
|
107 |
0.7% |
86% |
|
108 |
0.2% |
86% |
|
109 |
2% |
85% |
|
110 |
3% |
83% |
|
111 |
2% |
80% |
|
112 |
0.6% |
78% |
|
113 |
6% |
77% |
|
114 |
2% |
71% |
|
115 |
6% |
70% |
|
116 |
9% |
64% |
|
117 |
4% |
55% |
|
118 |
1.1% |
51% |
Median |
119 |
2% |
50% |
|
120 |
0.9% |
48% |
|
121 |
2% |
47% |
|
122 |
4% |
45% |
|
123 |
10% |
41% |
|
124 |
3% |
30% |
|
125 |
15% |
28% |
|
126 |
5% |
13% |
|
127 |
3% |
8% |
|
128 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
129 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
130 |
0.2% |
4% |
|
131 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
132 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
133 |
0% |
4% |
|
134 |
0.1% |
4% |
|
135 |
1.0% |
4% |
|
136 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
137 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
138 |
0.4% |
1.0% |
Last Result |
139 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
140 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
141 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
142 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
143 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
144 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
145 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
146 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
147 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
148 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
149 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
150 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
151 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
152 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: CBOS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–13 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1064
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.98%