Opinion Poll by Kantar Millward Brown for TVN and TVN24, 14–17 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 38.0% | 36.0–40.0% | 35.5–40.5% | 35.0–41.0% | 34.1–42.0% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 21.0% | 19.4–22.7% | 18.9–23.2% | 18.6–23.6% | 17.8–24.5% |
| .Nowoczesna | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 268 | 251–282 | 249–287 | 243–291 | 235–297 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 140 | 124–150 | 122–155 | 118–161 | 113–166 |
| .Nowoczesna | 28 | 31 | 21–36 | 19–40 | 18–40 | 12–44 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 0 | 0–26 | 0–28 | 0–30 | 0–33 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0–23 | 0–25 | 0–27 | 0–34 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0–13 | 0–17 | 0–19 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 0 | 0–23 | 0–23 | 0–24 | 0–25 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–19 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 227 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 228 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 232 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 234 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 235 | 0.2% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 238 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 240 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 241 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 242 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 243 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 244 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 245 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 246 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 247 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 248 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 249 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 250 | 2% | 94% | |
| 251 | 5% | 93% | |
| 252 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 254 | 4% | 88% | |
| 255 | 0.8% | 83% | |
| 256 | 0.4% | 83% | |
| 257 | 3% | 82% | |
| 258 | 4% | 79% | |
| 259 | 1.5% | 75% | |
| 260 | 5% | 74% | |
| 261 | 5% | 69% | |
| 262 | 0.9% | 64% | |
| 263 | 4% | 64% | |
| 264 | 1.0% | 60% | |
| 265 | 2% | 59% | |
| 266 | 3% | 57% | |
| 267 | 2% | 53% | |
| 268 | 3% | 52% | Median |
| 269 | 0.1% | 49% | |
| 270 | 1.3% | 49% | |
| 271 | 0.2% | 47% | |
| 272 | 0.3% | 47% | |
| 273 | 4% | 47% | |
| 274 | 0.1% | 43% | |
| 275 | 0.2% | 43% | |
| 276 | 0.3% | 42% | |
| 277 | 1.0% | 42% | |
| 278 | 21% | 41% | |
| 279 | 1.2% | 20% | |
| 280 | 4% | 18% | |
| 281 | 2% | 15% | |
| 282 | 3% | 12% | |
| 283 | 2% | 9% | |
| 284 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 285 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 287 | 3% | 6% | |
| 288 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 289 | 0% | 3% | |
| 290 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 291 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 292 | 0% | 2% | |
| 293 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 294 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 295 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 296 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 297 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 300 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 301 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 302 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 304 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 305 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 306 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 307 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 115 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 118 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 121 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 122 | 2% | 96% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 124 | 6% | 93% | |
| 125 | 3% | 86% | |
| 126 | 1.3% | 84% | |
| 127 | 2% | 82% | |
| 128 | 4% | 80% | |
| 129 | 2% | 76% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 75% | |
| 131 | 2% | 74% | |
| 132 | 0.5% | 72% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 72% | |
| 134 | 4% | 72% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 67% | |
| 136 | 2% | 67% | |
| 137 | 4% | 65% | |
| 138 | 5% | 60% | Last Result |
| 139 | 5% | 55% | |
| 140 | 1.1% | 50% | Median |
| 141 | 0.6% | 49% | |
| 142 | 9% | 48% | |
| 143 | 2% | 39% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 37% | |
| 145 | 2% | 37% | |
| 146 | 4% | 35% | |
| 147 | 0.9% | 31% | |
| 148 | 19% | 30% | |
| 149 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 150 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 153 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 154 | 2% | 8% | |
| 155 | 3% | 6% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 158 | 0% | 3% | |
| 159 | 0% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0% | 3% | |
| 161 | 2% | 3% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% |
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 99.1% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 18 | 2% | 98% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 20 | 2% | 94% | |
| 21 | 4% | 92% | |
| 22 | 5% | 88% | |
| 23 | 1.1% | 84% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 82% | |
| 25 | 4% | 82% | |
| 26 | 2% | 78% | |
| 27 | 4% | 76% | |
| 28 | 3% | 72% | Last Result |
| 29 | 11% | 69% | |
| 30 | 2% | 58% | |
| 31 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 32 | 2% | 48% | |
| 33 | 3% | 46% | |
| 34 | 29% | 43% | |
| 35 | 4% | 14% | |
| 36 | 3% | 10% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 38 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 40 | 4% | 6% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 55% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 45% | |
| 2 | 0% | 45% | |
| 3 | 0% | 45% | |
| 4 | 0% | 45% | |
| 5 | 0% | 45% | |
| 6 | 0% | 45% | |
| 7 | 0% | 45% | |
| 8 | 0% | 45% | |
| 9 | 0% | 45% | |
| 10 | 0% | 45% | |
| 11 | 0% | 45% | |
| 12 | 0% | 45% | |
| 13 | 0% | 45% | |
| 14 | 5% | 45% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 40% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 40% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 39% | |
| 18 | 7% | 38% | |
| 19 | 2% | 31% | |
| 20 | 7% | 29% | |
| 21 | 4% | 22% | |
| 22 | 6% | 18% | |
| 23 | 1.2% | 13% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 12% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 11% | |
| 26 | 2% | 11% | |
| 27 | 3% | 8% | |
| 28 | 2% | 5% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 30 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 58% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 42% | |
| 2 | 0% | 42% | |
| 3 | 0% | 42% | |
| 4 | 0% | 42% | |
| 5 | 0% | 42% | |
| 6 | 0% | 42% | |
| 7 | 0% | 42% | |
| 8 | 0% | 42% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 42% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 42% | |
| 11 | 4% | 42% | |
| 12 | 2% | 37% | |
| 13 | 4% | 35% | |
| 14 | 2% | 31% | |
| 15 | 2% | 29% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 27% | |
| 17 | 4% | 26% | |
| 18 | 2% | 23% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 21% | |
| 20 | 1.5% | 20% | |
| 21 | 4% | 19% | |
| 22 | 2% | 15% | |
| 23 | 5% | 13% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 25 | 3% | 8% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 9% | |
| 9 | 0% | 9% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 13 | 2% | 7% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 18 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 15% | |
| 2 | 0% | 15% | |
| 3 | 0% | 15% | |
| 4 | 0% | 15% | |
| 5 | 0% | 15% | |
| 6 | 0% | 15% | |
| 7 | 0% | 15% | |
| 8 | 0% | 15% | |
| 9 | 0% | 15% | |
| 10 | 0% | 15% | |
| 11 | 0% | 15% | |
| 12 | 0% | 15% | |
| 13 | 0% | 15% | |
| 14 | 0% | 15% | |
| 15 | 0% | 15% | |
| 16 | 0% | 15% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0% | 15% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 15% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 15% | |
| 20 | 1.0% | 15% | |
| 21 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 22 | 2% | 13% | |
| 23 | 7% | 10% | |
| 24 | 3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 268 | 99.8% | 251–282 | 249–287 | 243–291 | 235–297 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Lewica Razem – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 182 | 182 | 0% | 164–198 | 156–209 | 153–209 | 151–219 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 182 | 182 | 0% | 163–198 | 156–209 | 153–209 | 150–217 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 166 | 182 | 0% | 157–192 | 154–195 | 153–200 | 146–210 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 182 | 174 | 0% | 153–191 | 151–193 | 146–195 | 136–199 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 169 | 0% | 153–182 | 148–186 | 145–190 | 136–197 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 140 | 0% | 124–150 | 122–155 | 118–161 | 113–166 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 227 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 228 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 229 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 230 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 231 | 0% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 232 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 234 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 235 | 0.2% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 238 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 240 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 241 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 242 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 243 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 244 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 245 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 246 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 247 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 248 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 249 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 250 | 2% | 94% | |
| 251 | 5% | 93% | |
| 252 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 88% | |
| 254 | 4% | 88% | |
| 255 | 0.8% | 83% | |
| 256 | 0.4% | 83% | |
| 257 | 3% | 82% | |
| 258 | 4% | 79% | |
| 259 | 1.5% | 75% | |
| 260 | 5% | 74% | |
| 261 | 5% | 69% | |
| 262 | 0.9% | 64% | |
| 263 | 4% | 64% | |
| 264 | 1.0% | 60% | |
| 265 | 2% | 59% | |
| 266 | 3% | 57% | |
| 267 | 2% | 53% | |
| 268 | 3% | 52% | Median |
| 269 | 0.1% | 49% | |
| 270 | 1.3% | 49% | |
| 271 | 0.2% | 47% | |
| 272 | 0.3% | 47% | |
| 273 | 4% | 47% | |
| 274 | 0.1% | 43% | |
| 275 | 0.2% | 43% | |
| 276 | 0.3% | 42% | |
| 277 | 1.0% | 42% | |
| 278 | 21% | 41% | |
| 279 | 1.2% | 20% | |
| 280 | 4% | 18% | |
| 281 | 2% | 15% | |
| 282 | 3% | 12% | |
| 283 | 2% | 9% | |
| 284 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 285 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 286 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 287 | 3% | 6% | |
| 288 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 289 | 0% | 3% | |
| 290 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 291 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 292 | 0% | 2% | |
| 293 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 294 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 295 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 296 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 297 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 298 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 299 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 300 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 301 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 302 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 303 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 304 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 305 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 306 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 307 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 308 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 309 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 310 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 311 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Lewica Razem – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 137 | 0% | 100% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 153 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 155 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 156 | 2% | 96% | |
| 157 | 0.6% | 93% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 159 | 0% | 92% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 163 | 0.9% | 91% | |
| 164 | 0.7% | 90% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 90% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 167 | 2% | 89% | |
| 168 | 0.6% | 87% | |
| 169 | 1.3% | 86% | |
| 170 | 1.0% | 85% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 84% | Median |
| 172 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 83% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 175 | 1.1% | 83% | |
| 176 | 1.2% | 82% | |
| 177 | 4% | 80% | |
| 178 | 2% | 76% | |
| 179 | 9% | 74% | |
| 180 | 4% | 65% | |
| 181 | 1.2% | 61% | |
| 182 | 22% | 60% | Last Result |
| 183 | 3% | 38% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 35% | |
| 185 | 2% | 35% | |
| 186 | 0.7% | 32% | |
| 187 | 5% | 32% | |
| 188 | 4% | 27% | |
| 189 | 0.9% | 23% | |
| 190 | 2% | 22% | |
| 191 | 0.9% | 21% | |
| 192 | 0.6% | 20% | |
| 193 | 1.3% | 19% | |
| 194 | 3% | 18% | |
| 195 | 2% | 15% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 197 | 2% | 13% | |
| 198 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 200 | 1.0% | 10% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 202 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 206 | 0.8% | 8% | |
| 207 | 0% | 7% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 209 | 4% | 6% | |
| 210 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 220 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 136 | 0% | 100% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 153 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 155 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 156 | 2% | 95% | |
| 157 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 158 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 92% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 163 | 1.2% | 91% | |
| 164 | 1.2% | 90% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 89% | |
| 166 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 167 | 2% | 87% | |
| 168 | 0.6% | 85% | |
| 169 | 1.4% | 85% | |
| 170 | 1.0% | 83% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 82% | Median |
| 172 | 0.4% | 82% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 82% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 81% | |
| 175 | 1.1% | 81% | |
| 176 | 0.7% | 80% | |
| 177 | 4% | 79% | |
| 178 | 2% | 75% | |
| 179 | 9% | 73% | |
| 180 | 4% | 64% | |
| 181 | 1.3% | 60% | |
| 182 | 22% | 59% | Last Result |
| 183 | 3% | 38% | |
| 184 | 0.5% | 34% | |
| 185 | 2% | 34% | |
| 186 | 0.7% | 32% | |
| 187 | 5% | 31% | |
| 188 | 4% | 27% | |
| 189 | 0.9% | 23% | |
| 190 | 2% | 22% | |
| 191 | 0.9% | 20% | |
| 192 | 0.6% | 19% | |
| 193 | 1.3% | 19% | |
| 194 | 3% | 17% | |
| 195 | 2% | 15% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 197 | 2% | 12% | |
| 198 | 0.6% | 10% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 200 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 202 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 203 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 204 | 0% | 8% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 206 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 207 | 0% | 7% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 209 | 4% | 6% | |
| 210 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 220 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 140 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 144 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 153 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 154 | 2% | 96% | |
| 155 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 156 | 3% | 93% | |
| 157 | 1.5% | 90% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 159 | 0.6% | 88% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 161 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 162 | 0.6% | 87% | |
| 163 | 1.3% | 86% | |
| 164 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 166 | 0.8% | 83% | Last Result |
| 167 | 2% | 83% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 81% | |
| 169 | 1.5% | 80% | |
| 170 | 1.0% | 79% | |
| 171 | 2% | 78% | Median |
| 172 | 0.6% | 76% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 75% | |
| 174 | 1.0% | 75% | |
| 175 | 2% | 74% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 72% | |
| 177 | 4% | 72% | |
| 178 | 1.0% | 68% | |
| 179 | 8% | 67% | |
| 180 | 4% | 59% | |
| 181 | 1.4% | 55% | |
| 182 | 22% | 54% | |
| 183 | 3% | 32% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 29% | |
| 185 | 2% | 29% | |
| 186 | 5% | 27% | |
| 187 | 5% | 22% | |
| 188 | 4% | 18% | |
| 189 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 190 | 2% | 13% | |
| 191 | 0.9% | 11% | |
| 192 | 0.6% | 10% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 194 | 3% | 9% | |
| 195 | 2% | 7% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 197 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 200 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 202 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0% | 2% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 206 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 207 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 208 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 210 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 145 | 1.0% | 98.5% | |
| 146 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 147 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 149 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 151 | 2% | 95% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 153 | 3% | 93% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 155 | 1.0% | 89% | |
| 156 | 3% | 88% | |
| 157 | 2% | 85% | |
| 158 | 4% | 83% | |
| 159 | 5% | 79% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 74% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 74% | |
| 162 | 0.4% | 73% | |
| 163 | 1.2% | 73% | |
| 164 | 3% | 72% | |
| 165 | 1.5% | 69% | |
| 166 | 4% | 68% | |
| 167 | 1.2% | 63% | |
| 168 | 0.9% | 62% | |
| 169 | 2% | 61% | |
| 170 | 2% | 60% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 58% | Median |
| 172 | 0.4% | 58% | |
| 173 | 6% | 57% | |
| 174 | 3% | 52% | |
| 175 | 0.9% | 49% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 48% | |
| 177 | 2% | 48% | |
| 178 | 2% | 46% | |
| 179 | 2% | 44% | |
| 180 | 4% | 42% | |
| 181 | 0.8% | 39% | |
| 182 | 21% | 38% | Last Result |
| 183 | 2% | 16% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 185 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 187 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 189 | 0.6% | 12% | |
| 190 | 2% | 12% | |
| 191 | 4% | 10% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 193 | 1.4% | 5% | |
| 194 | 0% | 4% | |
| 195 | 2% | 4% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 197 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 129 | 0% | 100% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 135 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 136 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 137 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 139 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 140 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 144 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 145 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 146 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 147 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 149 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 150 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 151 | 2% | 93% | |
| 152 | 1.1% | 91% | |
| 153 | 3% | 90% | |
| 154 | 2% | 87% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 156 | 3% | 84% | |
| 157 | 3% | 80% | |
| 158 | 4% | 78% | |
| 159 | 5% | 73% | |
| 160 | 0.7% | 68% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 68% | |
| 162 | 0.7% | 67% | |
| 163 | 1.2% | 67% | |
| 164 | 3% | 65% | |
| 165 | 1.4% | 63% | |
| 166 | 4% | 61% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0.9% | 57% | |
| 168 | 5% | 56% | |
| 169 | 2% | 51% | |
| 170 | 2% | 49% | |
| 171 | 2% | 48% | Median |
| 172 | 0.5% | 46% | |
| 173 | 5% | 45% | |
| 174 | 3% | 40% | |
| 175 | 0.7% | 37% | |
| 176 | 0.3% | 37% | |
| 177 | 2% | 36% | |
| 178 | 0.7% | 34% | |
| 179 | 0.6% | 34% | |
| 180 | 4% | 33% | |
| 181 | 0.7% | 29% | |
| 182 | 21% | 29% | |
| 183 | 2% | 7% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 185 | 0.7% | 6% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 188 | 0% | 5% | |
| 189 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 190 | 2% | 4% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 193 | 0% | 2% | |
| 194 | 0% | 2% | |
| 195 | 2% | 2% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 197 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 106 | 0% | 100% | |
| 107 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 108 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 115 | 0.7% | 98.8% | |
| 116 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 118 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 121 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 122 | 2% | 96% | |
| 123 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 124 | 6% | 93% | |
| 125 | 3% | 86% | |
| 126 | 1.3% | 84% | |
| 127 | 2% | 82% | |
| 128 | 4% | 80% | |
| 129 | 2% | 76% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 75% | |
| 131 | 2% | 74% | |
| 132 | 0.5% | 72% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 72% | |
| 134 | 4% | 72% | |
| 135 | 0.4% | 67% | |
| 136 | 2% | 67% | |
| 137 | 4% | 65% | |
| 138 | 5% | 60% | Last Result |
| 139 | 5% | 55% | |
| 140 | 1.1% | 50% | Median |
| 141 | 0.6% | 49% | |
| 142 | 9% | 48% | |
| 143 | 2% | 39% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 37% | |
| 145 | 2% | 37% | |
| 146 | 4% | 35% | |
| 147 | 0.9% | 31% | |
| 148 | 19% | 30% | |
| 149 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 150 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 153 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 154 | 2% | 8% | |
| 155 | 3% | 6% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 158 | 0% | 3% | |
| 159 | 0% | 3% | |
| 160 | 0% | 3% | |
| 161 | 2% | 3% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Millward Brown
- Commissioner(s): TVN and TVN24
- Fieldwork period: 14–17 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.95%