Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Onet, 22–23 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 33.2% | 31.4–35.0% | 30.9–35.6% | 30.5–36.0% | 29.6–36.9% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 23.1% | 21.5–24.8% | 21.1–25.3% | 20.7–25.7% | 20.0–26.5% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.6–11.6% | 8.4–11.9% | 7.9–12.5% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.7–9.9% | 7.4–10.3% | 7.2–10.5% | 6.7–11.1% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.3% | 5.2–7.6% | 5.0–7.9% | 4.6–8.4% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.4–4.5% | 2.1–4.9% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.4–3.8% |
| .Nowoczesna | 7.6% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.5–3.2% | 1.3–3.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 204 | 198–217 | 193–222 | 191–227 | 186–234 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 139 | 129–147 | 125–149 | 121–153 | 116–159 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 49 | 45–56 | 42–59 | 41–61 | 39–64 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 43 | 34–46 | 32–47 | 30–50 | 28–54 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 23 | 19–28 | 16–34 | 0–35 | 0–36 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| .Nowoczesna | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178 | 0% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 183 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 189 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 190 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 191 | 2% | 98% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 193 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 194 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 196 | 2% | 94% | |
| 197 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 198 | 16% | 92% | |
| 199 | 8% | 76% | |
| 200 | 2% | 68% | |
| 201 | 5% | 66% | |
| 202 | 4% | 62% | |
| 203 | 2% | 58% | |
| 204 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 205 | 0.8% | 48% | |
| 206 | 1.0% | 47% | |
| 207 | 2% | 46% | |
| 208 | 2% | 44% | |
| 209 | 3% | 43% | |
| 210 | 1.2% | 40% | |
| 211 | 4% | 38% | |
| 212 | 5% | 35% | |
| 213 | 7% | 30% | |
| 214 | 8% | 23% | |
| 215 | 2% | 15% | |
| 216 | 0.4% | 12% | |
| 217 | 2% | 12% | |
| 218 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 219 | 1.5% | 9% | |
| 220 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 222 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 223 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 224 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 225 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 227 | 2% | 3% | |
| 228 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 230 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 1.0% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 234 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 237 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 239 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 117 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 119 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 121 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 123 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 125 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 126 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 127 | 2% | 92% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 129 | 6% | 90% | |
| 130 | 2% | 84% | |
| 131 | 3% | 82% | |
| 132 | 7% | 79% | |
| 133 | 2% | 72% | |
| 134 | 4% | 70% | |
| 135 | 2% | 66% | |
| 136 | 6% | 64% | |
| 137 | 2% | 58% | |
| 138 | 6% | 56% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0.6% | 50% | Median |
| 140 | 4% | 50% | |
| 141 | 0.7% | 46% | |
| 142 | 4% | 45% | |
| 143 | 3% | 41% | |
| 144 | 4% | 39% | |
| 145 | 2% | 35% | |
| 146 | 19% | 33% | |
| 147 | 5% | 14% | |
| 148 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 149 | 3% | 7% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 153 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 40 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 41 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 42 | 3% | 97% | Last Result |
| 43 | 2% | 94% | |
| 44 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 45 | 7% | 91% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 84% | |
| 47 | 4% | 83% | |
| 48 | 10% | 78% | |
| 49 | 21% | 69% | Median |
| 50 | 4% | 48% | |
| 51 | 11% | 44% | |
| 52 | 4% | 33% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 30% | |
| 54 | 9% | 29% | |
| 55 | 8% | 20% | |
| 56 | 1.4% | 11% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 10% | |
| 58 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 59 | 4% | 8% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 62 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 31 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 32 | 2% | 96% | |
| 33 | 2% | 94% | |
| 34 | 2% | 92% | |
| 35 | 10% | 90% | |
| 36 | 2% | 80% | |
| 37 | 2% | 77% | |
| 38 | 8% | 75% | |
| 39 | 4% | 68% | |
| 40 | 2% | 64% | |
| 41 | 4% | 62% | |
| 42 | 4% | 59% | |
| 43 | 9% | 55% | Median |
| 44 | 23% | 46% | |
| 45 | 5% | 23% | |
| 46 | 11% | 18% | |
| 47 | 2% | 6% | |
| 48 | 2% | 5% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 54 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 96% | |
| 2 | 0% | 96% | |
| 3 | 0% | 96% | |
| 4 | 0% | 96% | |
| 5 | 0% | 96% | |
| 6 | 0% | 96% | |
| 7 | 0% | 96% | |
| 8 | 0% | 96% | |
| 9 | 0% | 96% | |
| 10 | 0% | 96% | |
| 11 | 0% | 96% | |
| 12 | 0% | 96% | |
| 13 | 0% | 96% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 15 | 0% | 96% | |
| 16 | 2% | 96% | Last Result |
| 17 | 3% | 93% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 91% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 90% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 90% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 22 | 1.1% | 89% | |
| 23 | 43% | 88% | Median |
| 24 | 12% | 44% | |
| 25 | 11% | 32% | |
| 26 | 10% | 21% | |
| 27 | 1.3% | 11% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 10% | |
| 29 | 1.1% | 10% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 33 | 3% | 8% | |
| 34 | 2% | 5% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 204 | 1.0% | 198–217 | 193–222 | 191–227 | 186–234 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Lewica Razem – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 203 | 0.1% | 192–213 | 186–217 | 181–220 | 176–225 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 203 | 0.1% | 192–213 | 186–217 | 181–220 | 176–225 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 180 | 0% | 167–190 | 165–192 | 163–197 | 155–201 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 161 | 0% | 152–172 | 144–175 | 142–177 | 136–185 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 139 | 0% | 129–147 | 125–149 | 121–153 | 116–159 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 139 | 0% | 129–147 | 125–149 | 121–153 | 116–159 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178 | 0% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 183 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 189 | 0.7% | 98.7% | |
| 190 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 191 | 2% | 98% | |
| 192 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 193 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 194 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 195 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 196 | 2% | 94% | |
| 197 | 0.5% | 92% | |
| 198 | 16% | 92% | |
| 199 | 8% | 76% | |
| 200 | 2% | 68% | |
| 201 | 5% | 66% | |
| 202 | 4% | 62% | |
| 203 | 2% | 58% | |
| 204 | 8% | 56% | Median |
| 205 | 0.8% | 48% | |
| 206 | 1.0% | 47% | |
| 207 | 2% | 46% | |
| 208 | 2% | 44% | |
| 209 | 3% | 43% | |
| 210 | 1.2% | 40% | |
| 211 | 4% | 38% | |
| 212 | 5% | 35% | |
| 213 | 7% | 30% | |
| 214 | 8% | 23% | |
| 215 | 2% | 15% | |
| 216 | 0.4% | 12% | |
| 217 | 2% | 12% | |
| 218 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 219 | 1.5% | 9% | |
| 220 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 222 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 223 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 224 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 225 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 226 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 227 | 2% | 3% | |
| 228 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 230 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 1.0% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 234 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 237 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 239 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Lewica Razem – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 174 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 175 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 177 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 178 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 179 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 98.5% | |
| 181 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 186 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 189 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 190 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 191 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 192 | 3% | 91% | |
| 193 | 1.1% | 87% | |
| 194 | 1.0% | 86% | |
| 195 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 196 | 8% | 84% | |
| 197 | 2% | 76% | |
| 198 | 7% | 75% | |
| 199 | 4% | 68% | |
| 200 | 2% | 64% | |
| 201 | 4% | 62% | |
| 202 | 5% | 58% | |
| 203 | 8% | 53% | |
| 204 | 3% | 45% | |
| 205 | 0.5% | 42% | Median |
| 206 | 1.4% | 42% | |
| 207 | 5% | 40% | |
| 208 | 3% | 35% | |
| 209 | 2% | 32% | |
| 210 | 2% | 30% | |
| 211 | 2% | 28% | |
| 212 | 0.2% | 26% | |
| 213 | 16% | 26% | |
| 214 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 215 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 216 | 3% | 8% | |
| 217 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 218 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 219 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 220 | 2% | 4% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 222 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 223 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 226 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 232 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 174 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 175 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 177 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 178 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 179 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 98.5% | |
| 181 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 182 | 0.4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 186 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 187 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 189 | 1.0% | 94% | |
| 190 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 191 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 192 | 3% | 91% | |
| 193 | 1.1% | 87% | |
| 194 | 1.0% | 86% | |
| 195 | 0.5% | 85% | |
| 196 | 8% | 84% | |
| 197 | 2% | 76% | |
| 198 | 7% | 75% | |
| 199 | 4% | 68% | |
| 200 | 2% | 64% | |
| 201 | 4% | 62% | |
| 202 | 5% | 58% | |
| 203 | 8% | 53% | |
| 204 | 3% | 45% | |
| 205 | 0.5% | 42% | Median |
| 206 | 1.4% | 42% | |
| 207 | 5% | 40% | |
| 208 | 3% | 35% | |
| 209 | 2% | 32% | |
| 210 | 2% | 30% | |
| 211 | 2% | 28% | |
| 212 | 0.2% | 26% | |
| 213 | 16% | 26% | |
| 214 | 1.2% | 9% | |
| 215 | 0.4% | 8% | |
| 216 | 3% | 8% | |
| 217 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 218 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 219 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 220 | 2% | 4% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 222 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 223 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 226 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 232 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 157 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 162 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 163 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 164 | 2% | 97% | |
| 165 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 166 | 3% | 94% | Last Result |
| 167 | 1.4% | 91% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 90% | |
| 169 | 3% | 90% | |
| 170 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 171 | 1.1% | 86% | |
| 172 | 3% | 84% | |
| 173 | 12% | 82% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 70% | |
| 175 | 2% | 69% | |
| 176 | 3% | 67% | |
| 177 | 5% | 65% | |
| 178 | 6% | 60% | |
| 179 | 3% | 54% | |
| 180 | 6% | 50% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 44% | |
| 182 | 0.8% | 44% | Median |
| 183 | 4% | 43% | |
| 184 | 6% | 39% | |
| 185 | 2% | 33% | |
| 186 | 1.4% | 31% | |
| 187 | 3% | 29% | |
| 188 | 2% | 26% | |
| 189 | 0.2% | 24% | |
| 190 | 18% | 24% | |
| 191 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 192 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 193 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 194 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 195 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 197 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 198 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 200 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 127 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 131 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 133 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 135 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 138 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 139 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 140 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 144 | 2% | 97% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 149 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 150 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 151 | 2% | 92% | |
| 152 | 2% | 90% | |
| 153 | 2% | 88% | |
| 154 | 7% | 86% | |
| 155 | 3% | 79% | |
| 156 | 6% | 76% | |
| 157 | 3% | 70% | |
| 158 | 5% | 67% | |
| 159 | 7% | 63% | |
| 160 | 2% | 56% | |
| 161 | 6% | 55% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 49% | Median |
| 163 | 0.8% | 48% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 47% | |
| 165 | 5% | 47% | |
| 166 | 1.0% | 42% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 41% | |
| 168 | 2% | 41% | |
| 169 | 19% | 39% | |
| 170 | 7% | 20% | |
| 171 | 2% | 13% | |
| 172 | 2% | 11% | |
| 173 | 2% | 9% | |
| 174 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 175 | 2% | 6% | |
| 176 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 177 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 179 | 0% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 182 | 0.5% | 2% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 117 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 119 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 121 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 123 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 125 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 126 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 127 | 2% | 92% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 129 | 6% | 90% | |
| 130 | 2% | 84% | |
| 131 | 3% | 82% | |
| 132 | 7% | 79% | |
| 133 | 2% | 72% | |
| 134 | 4% | 70% | |
| 135 | 2% | 66% | |
| 136 | 6% | 64% | |
| 137 | 2% | 58% | |
| 138 | 6% | 56% | |
| 139 | 0.6% | 50% | Median |
| 140 | 4% | 50% | |
| 141 | 0.7% | 46% | |
| 142 | 4% | 45% | |
| 143 | 3% | 41% | |
| 144 | 4% | 39% | |
| 145 | 2% | 35% | |
| 146 | 19% | 33% | |
| 147 | 5% | 14% | |
| 148 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 149 | 3% | 7% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 153 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | 0% | 100% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 114 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 117 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 118 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 119 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 120 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 121 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 123 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 125 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 126 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 127 | 2% | 92% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 129 | 6% | 90% | |
| 130 | 2% | 84% | |
| 131 | 3% | 82% | |
| 132 | 7% | 79% | |
| 133 | 2% | 72% | |
| 134 | 4% | 70% | |
| 135 | 2% | 66% | |
| 136 | 6% | 64% | |
| 137 | 2% | 58% | |
| 138 | 6% | 56% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0.6% | 50% | Median |
| 140 | 4% | 50% | |
| 141 | 0.7% | 46% | |
| 142 | 4% | 45% | |
| 143 | 3% | 41% | |
| 144 | 4% | 39% | |
| 145 | 2% | 35% | |
| 146 | 19% | 33% | |
| 147 | 5% | 14% | |
| 148 | 1.1% | 8% | |
| 149 | 3% | 7% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 151 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 152 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 153 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: IBRiS
- Commissioner(s): Onet
- Fieldwork period: 22–23 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.87%