Opinion Poll by Instytut Badań Pollster for Super Express, 1 October 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 41.0% | 39.0–43.0% | 38.5–43.5% | 38.0–44.0% | 37.1–45.0% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 31.0% | 29.2–32.9% | 28.7–33.4% | 28.2–33.9% | 27.4–34.8% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 7.0–11.6% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.4% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 222 | 211–237 | 208–240 | 205–243 | 200–248 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 161 | 150–171 | 148–175 | 146–178 | 140–184 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 39 | 31–44 | 28–46 | 26–47 | 21–49 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 24 | 12–29 | 11–30 | 9–33 | 7–36 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 16 | 11–22 | 0–23 | 0–25 | 0–27 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 200 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 201 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 202 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 203 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 204 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 205 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 206 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 207 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 208 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 209 | 2% | 94% | |
| 210 | 2% | 92% | |
| 211 | 2% | 91% | |
| 212 | 2% | 88% | |
| 213 | 2% | 86% | |
| 214 | 4% | 84% | |
| 215 | 3% | 80% | |
| 216 | 2% | 76% | |
| 217 | 4% | 74% | |
| 218 | 6% | 70% | |
| 219 | 4% | 65% | |
| 220 | 4% | 61% | |
| 221 | 4% | 57% | |
| 222 | 3% | 53% | Median |
| 223 | 4% | 50% | |
| 224 | 3% | 46% | |
| 225 | 3% | 43% | |
| 226 | 3% | 39% | |
| 227 | 5% | 36% | |
| 228 | 3% | 32% | |
| 229 | 3% | 29% | |
| 230 | 2% | 26% | |
| 231 | 3% | 24% | Majority |
| 232 | 2% | 21% | |
| 233 | 3% | 19% | |
| 234 | 1.5% | 16% | |
| 235 | 1.3% | 14% | Last Result |
| 236 | 2% | 13% | |
| 237 | 3% | 11% | |
| 238 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 239 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 240 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 241 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 242 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 243 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 244 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 245 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 246 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 248 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 249 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 251 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 253 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 146 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 147 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 148 | 2% | 96% | |
| 149 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 150 | 3% | 92% | |
| 151 | 2% | 89% | |
| 152 | 2% | 87% | |
| 153 | 3% | 85% | |
| 154 | 3% | 82% | |
| 155 | 4% | 79% | |
| 156 | 4% | 75% | |
| 157 | 4% | 70% | |
| 158 | 3% | 67% | |
| 159 | 6% | 64% | |
| 160 | 7% | 58% | |
| 161 | 5% | 51% | Median |
| 162 | 5% | 46% | |
| 163 | 5% | 41% | |
| 164 | 5% | 36% | |
| 165 | 3% | 31% | |
| 166 | 2% | 28% | |
| 167 | 5% | 26% | |
| 168 | 3% | 21% | |
| 169 | 3% | 18% | |
| 170 | 3% | 15% | |
| 171 | 2% | 12% | |
| 172 | 2% | 10% | |
| 173 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 174 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 175 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 176 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 177 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 179 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 28 | 3% | 96% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 30 | 2% | 92% | |
| 31 | 2% | 90% | |
| 32 | 3% | 88% | |
| 33 | 5% | 85% | |
| 34 | 4% | 80% | |
| 35 | 5% | 77% | |
| 36 | 7% | 72% | |
| 37 | 8% | 65% | |
| 38 | 4% | 57% | |
| 39 | 5% | 53% | Median |
| 40 | 6% | 48% | |
| 41 | 9% | 42% | |
| 42 | 12% | 33% | Last Result |
| 43 | 8% | 21% | |
| 44 | 3% | 13% | |
| 45 | 5% | 10% | |
| 46 | 2% | 5% | |
| 47 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 48 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 11 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 12 | 7% | 95% | |
| 13 | 4% | 88% | |
| 14 | 3% | 84% | |
| 15 | 3% | 81% | |
| 16 | 2% | 78% | |
| 17 | 3% | 76% | |
| 18 | 4% | 73% | |
| 19 | 4% | 69% | |
| 20 | 3% | 65% | |
| 21 | 4% | 62% | |
| 22 | 2% | 58% | |
| 23 | 4% | 56% | |
| 24 | 6% | 51% | Median |
| 25 | 4% | 46% | |
| 26 | 7% | 42% | |
| 27 | 9% | 35% | |
| 28 | 9% | 26% | |
| 29 | 11% | 17% | |
| 30 | 2% | 7% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 93% | |
| 2 | 0% | 93% | |
| 3 | 0% | 93% | |
| 4 | 0% | 93% | |
| 5 | 0% | 93% | |
| 6 | 0% | 93% | |
| 7 | 0% | 93% | |
| 8 | 0% | 93% | |
| 9 | 0% | 93% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 11 | 5% | 93% | |
| 12 | 14% | 87% | |
| 13 | 7% | 73% | |
| 14 | 6% | 66% | |
| 15 | 5% | 60% | |
| 16 | 9% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 17 | 7% | 46% | |
| 18 | 5% | 39% | |
| 19 | 7% | 34% | |
| 20 | 6% | 26% | |
| 21 | 6% | 20% | |
| 22 | 6% | 14% | |
| 23 | 4% | 9% | |
| 24 | 2% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 27 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 222 | 24% | 211–237 | 208–240 | 205–243 | 200–248 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 161 | 0% | 150–171 | 148–175 | 146–178 | 140–184 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 196 | 0% | 100% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 200 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 201 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 202 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 203 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 204 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 205 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 206 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 207 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 208 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 209 | 2% | 94% | |
| 210 | 2% | 92% | |
| 211 | 2% | 91% | |
| 212 | 2% | 88% | |
| 213 | 2% | 86% | |
| 214 | 4% | 84% | |
| 215 | 3% | 80% | |
| 216 | 2% | 76% | |
| 217 | 4% | 74% | |
| 218 | 6% | 70% | |
| 219 | 4% | 65% | |
| 220 | 4% | 61% | |
| 221 | 4% | 57% | |
| 222 | 3% | 53% | Median |
| 223 | 4% | 50% | |
| 224 | 3% | 46% | |
| 225 | 3% | 43% | |
| 226 | 3% | 39% | |
| 227 | 5% | 36% | |
| 228 | 3% | 32% | |
| 229 | 3% | 29% | |
| 230 | 2% | 26% | |
| 231 | 3% | 24% | Majority |
| 232 | 2% | 21% | |
| 233 | 3% | 19% | |
| 234 | 1.5% | 16% | |
| 235 | 1.3% | 14% | Last Result |
| 236 | 2% | 13% | |
| 237 | 3% | 11% | |
| 238 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 239 | 1.3% | 7% | |
| 240 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 241 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 242 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 243 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 244 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 245 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 246 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 248 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 249 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 251 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 253 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133 | 0% | 100% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 140 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 141 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 143 | 0.3% | 99.0% | |
| 144 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 146 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 147 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 148 | 2% | 96% | |
| 149 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 150 | 3% | 92% | |
| 151 | 2% | 89% | |
| 152 | 2% | 87% | |
| 153 | 3% | 85% | |
| 154 | 3% | 82% | |
| 155 | 4% | 79% | |
| 156 | 4% | 75% | |
| 157 | 4% | 70% | |
| 158 | 3% | 67% | |
| 159 | 6% | 64% | |
| 160 | 7% | 58% | |
| 161 | 5% | 51% | Median |
| 162 | 5% | 46% | |
| 163 | 5% | 41% | |
| 164 | 5% | 36% | |
| 165 | 3% | 31% | |
| 166 | 2% | 28% | |
| 167 | 5% | 26% | |
| 168 | 3% | 21% | |
| 169 | 3% | 18% | |
| 170 | 3% | 15% | |
| 171 | 2% | 12% | |
| 172 | 2% | 10% | |
| 173 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 174 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 175 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 176 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 177 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 179 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 183 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 188 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Instytut Badań Pollster
- Commissioner(s): Super Express
- Fieldwork period: 1 October 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1030
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.98%