Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 12–17 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość 37.6% 31.0% 29.2–32.8% 28.6–33.4% 28.2–33.8% 27.4–34.8%
Platforma Obywatelska 24.1% 24.0% 22.4–25.8% 21.9–26.3% 21.5–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Kukiz’15 8.8% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.1–10.4%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe 5.1% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5% 6.5–9.8% 6.1–10.4%
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej 7.6% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
KORWiN 4.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Lewica Razem 3.6% 2.0% 1.6–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość 235 201 188–212 185–213 182–216 175–224
Platforma Obywatelska 138 151 138–163 137–165 134–170 127–172
Kukiz’15 42 41 29–48 27–49 26–50 20–53
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe 16 36 30–45 27–49 26–52 24–57
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej 0 32 25–38 23–41 21–42 14–44
KORWiN 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewica Razem 0 0 0 0 0 0

Prawo i Sprawiedliwość

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.8%  
171 0% 99.8%  
172 0.1% 99.8%  
173 0.1% 99.7%  
174 0.1% 99.6%  
175 0.1% 99.6%  
176 0.1% 99.4%  
177 0.3% 99.3%  
178 0.3% 99.1%  
179 0.2% 98.7%  
180 0.7% 98.5%  
181 0.1% 98%  
182 0.5% 98%  
183 0.2% 97%  
184 0.3% 97%  
185 4% 97%  
186 2% 93%  
187 0.4% 91%  
188 1.2% 90%  
189 0.4% 89%  
190 1.0% 89%  
191 2% 88%  
192 1.5% 85%  
193 4% 84%  
194 5% 80%  
195 5% 75%  
196 6% 70%  
197 3% 63%  
198 2% 60%  
199 5% 58%  
200 2% 53%  
201 5% 51% Median
202 3% 46%  
203 4% 43%  
204 3% 39%  
205 2% 35%  
206 4% 33%  
207 1.2% 30%  
208 3% 28%  
209 7% 25%  
210 5% 18%  
211 3% 13%  
212 4% 10%  
213 2% 6%  
214 0.9% 4%  
215 0.1% 3%  
216 0.6% 3%  
217 0.6% 2%  
218 0.5% 2%  
219 0.2% 1.4%  
220 0.1% 1.2%  
221 0.2% 1.0%  
222 0.2% 0.8%  
223 0.1% 0.6%  
224 0.1% 0.5%  
225 0% 0.4%  
226 0.1% 0.4%  
227 0.1% 0.3%  
228 0% 0.2%  
229 0% 0.2%  
230 0% 0.2%  
231 0% 0.1% Majority
232 0.1% 0.1%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0% Last Result

Platforma Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0.2% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.7%  
126 0% 99.6%  
127 0.1% 99.6%  
128 0.1% 99.4%  
129 0.1% 99.3%  
130 0.5% 99.2%  
131 0.6% 98.8%  
132 0.1% 98%  
133 0.2% 98%  
134 0.7% 98%  
135 0.5% 97%  
136 0.6% 97%  
137 2% 96%  
138 5% 94% Last Result
139 1.5% 90%  
140 4% 88%  
141 2% 84%  
142 2% 82%  
143 2% 80%  
144 2% 78%  
145 7% 76%  
146 5% 70%  
147 3% 65%  
148 6% 61%  
149 3% 56%  
150 2% 53%  
151 0.8% 51% Median
152 3% 50%  
153 0.5% 47%  
154 4% 47%  
155 3% 43%  
156 9% 40%  
157 2% 32%  
158 1.1% 30%  
159 10% 29%  
160 4% 19%  
161 0.4% 15%  
162 3% 14%  
163 3% 12%  
164 3% 8%  
165 0.6% 5%  
166 0.1% 5%  
167 0.1% 4%  
168 2% 4%  
169 0.1% 3%  
170 1.3% 3%  
171 0.5% 1.3%  
172 0.3% 0.8%  
173 0% 0.5%  
174 0.1% 0.4%  
175 0.1% 0.3%  
176 0.1% 0.2%  
177 0.1% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  

Kukiz’15

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.2% 99.6%  
21 0.2% 99.5%  
22 0.1% 99.3%  
23 0.1% 99.2%  
24 0.3% 99.1%  
25 1.0% 98.9%  
26 0.5% 98%  
27 3% 97%  
28 0.5% 95%  
29 5% 94%  
30 1.3% 90%  
31 4% 88%  
32 1.4% 85%  
33 0.7% 83%  
34 3% 82%  
35 0.9% 80%  
36 6% 79%  
37 1.4% 73%  
38 1.2% 72%  
39 2% 70%  
40 16% 68%  
41 4% 52% Median
42 12% 48% Last Result
43 4% 36%  
44 7% 33%  
45 9% 26%  
46 1.4% 16%  
47 3% 15%  
48 6% 12%  
49 3% 6%  
50 1.0% 3%  
51 0.7% 2%  
52 1.0% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.4%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100% Last Result
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.8%  
25 0.9% 99.4%  
26 2% 98%  
27 4% 96%  
28 2% 93%  
29 0.9% 91%  
30 4% 90%  
31 3% 86%  
32 9% 83%  
33 9% 75%  
34 5% 66%  
35 9% 61%  
36 8% 52% Median
37 9% 44%  
38 3% 35%  
39 3% 32%  
40 5% 28%  
41 2% 24%  
42 2% 22%  
43 7% 20%  
44 2% 13%  
45 1.5% 11%  
46 0.8% 10%  
47 1.3% 9%  
48 2% 7%  
49 0.4% 5%  
50 0.4% 5%  
51 0.2% 4%  
52 2% 4%  
53 0.2% 2%  
54 0.5% 2%  
55 0.1% 1.4%  
56 0.7% 1.3%  
57 0.3% 0.6%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0% 99.8%  
9 0% 99.8%  
10 0% 99.8%  
11 0.1% 99.8%  
12 0.1% 99.7%  
13 0% 99.6%  
14 0.2% 99.6%  
15 0.2% 99.3%  
16 0.2% 99.2%  
17 0.5% 98.9%  
18 0.1% 98%  
19 0.1% 98%  
20 0.3% 98%  
21 1.3% 98%  
22 1.2% 97%  
23 0.7% 96%  
24 3% 95%  
25 3% 92%  
26 2% 89%  
27 6% 87%  
28 7% 81%  
29 10% 74%  
30 12% 64%  
31 2% 52%  
32 5% 50% Median
33 11% 45%  
34 8% 34%  
35 2% 26%  
36 3% 24%  
37 7% 21%  
38 5% 15%  
39 0.6% 10%  
40 3% 9%  
41 2% 6%  
42 2% 5%  
43 0.7% 2%  
44 1.2% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

KORWiN

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lewica Razem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość 235 201 0.1% 188–212 185–213 182–216 175–224
Platforma Obywatelska 138 151 0% 138–163 137–165 134–170 127–172

Prawo i Sprawiedliwość

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
164 0% 100%  
165 0% 99.9%  
166 0% 99.9%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0% 99.9%  
169 0% 99.9%  
170 0% 99.8%  
171 0% 99.8%  
172 0.1% 99.8%  
173 0.1% 99.7%  
174 0.1% 99.6%  
175 0.1% 99.6%  
176 0.1% 99.4%  
177 0.3% 99.3%  
178 0.3% 99.1%  
179 0.2% 98.7%  
180 0.7% 98.5%  
181 0.1% 98%  
182 0.5% 98%  
183 0.2% 97%  
184 0.3% 97%  
185 4% 97%  
186 2% 93%  
187 0.4% 91%  
188 1.2% 90%  
189 0.4% 89%  
190 1.0% 89%  
191 2% 88%  
192 1.5% 85%  
193 4% 84%  
194 5% 80%  
195 5% 75%  
196 6% 70%  
197 3% 63%  
198 2% 60%  
199 5% 58%  
200 2% 53%  
201 5% 51% Median
202 3% 46%  
203 4% 43%  
204 3% 39%  
205 2% 35%  
206 4% 33%  
207 1.2% 30%  
208 3% 28%  
209 7% 25%  
210 5% 18%  
211 3% 13%  
212 4% 10%  
213 2% 6%  
214 0.9% 4%  
215 0.1% 3%  
216 0.6% 3%  
217 0.6% 2%  
218 0.5% 2%  
219 0.2% 1.4%  
220 0.1% 1.2%  
221 0.2% 1.0%  
222 0.2% 0.8%  
223 0.1% 0.6%  
224 0.1% 0.5%  
225 0% 0.4%  
226 0.1% 0.4%  
227 0.1% 0.3%  
228 0% 0.2%  
229 0% 0.2%  
230 0% 0.2%  
231 0% 0.1% Majority
232 0.1% 0.1%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0% Last Result

Platforma Obywatelska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0.2% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.7%  
126 0% 99.6%  
127 0.1% 99.6%  
128 0.1% 99.4%  
129 0.1% 99.3%  
130 0.5% 99.2%  
131 0.6% 98.8%  
132 0.1% 98%  
133 0.2% 98%  
134 0.7% 98%  
135 0.5% 97%  
136 0.6% 97%  
137 2% 96%  
138 5% 94% Last Result
139 1.5% 90%  
140 4% 88%  
141 2% 84%  
142 2% 82%  
143 2% 80%  
144 2% 78%  
145 7% 76%  
146 5% 70%  
147 3% 65%  
148 6% 61%  
149 3% 56%  
150 2% 53%  
151 0.8% 51% Median
152 3% 50%  
153 0.5% 47%  
154 4% 47%  
155 3% 43%  
156 9% 40%  
157 2% 32%  
158 1.1% 30%  
159 10% 29%  
160 4% 19%  
161 0.4% 15%  
162 3% 14%  
163 3% 12%  
164 3% 8%  
165 0.6% 5%  
166 0.1% 5%  
167 0.1% 4%  
168 2% 4%  
169 0.1% 3%  
170 1.3% 3%  
171 0.5% 1.3%  
172 0.3% 0.8%  
173 0% 0.5%  
174 0.1% 0.4%  
175 0.1% 0.3%  
176 0.1% 0.2%  
177 0.1% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations