Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 9–15 November 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 34.0% | 32.1–35.9% | 31.6–36.5% | 31.1–36.9% | 30.3–37.9% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 24.0% | 22.4–25.8% | 21.9–26.3% | 21.5–26.7% | 20.7–27.6% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.5% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 225 | 210–239 | 206–243 | 203–244 | 197–248 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 148 | 139–158 | 134–160 | 132–165 | 127–173 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 46 | 41–52 | 37–53 | 35–58 | 31–62 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 30 | 27–40 | 24–42 | 20–43 | 14–46 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 0 | 0–23 | 0–24 | 0–26 | 0–28 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 192 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 195 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 197 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 199 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 200 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 202 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 204 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 205 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 206 | 2% | 96% | |
| 207 | 2% | 94% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 209 | 2% | 93% | |
| 210 | 5% | 91% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 212 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 213 | 5% | 85% | |
| 214 | 2% | 80% | |
| 215 | 5% | 79% | |
| 216 | 2% | 73% | |
| 217 | 3% | 71% | |
| 218 | 4% | 68% | |
| 219 | 1.0% | 65% | |
| 220 | 2% | 64% | |
| 221 | 4% | 61% | |
| 222 | 2% | 58% | |
| 223 | 3% | 56% | |
| 224 | 1.4% | 53% | |
| 225 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 226 | 5% | 47% | |
| 227 | 1.1% | 42% | |
| 228 | 5% | 41% | |
| 229 | 3% | 35% | |
| 230 | 1.4% | 32% | |
| 231 | 2% | 31% | Majority |
| 232 | 4% | 28% | |
| 233 | 1.0% | 24% | |
| 234 | 2% | 23% | |
| 235 | 2% | 21% | Last Result |
| 236 | 5% | 19% | |
| 237 | 1.3% | 14% | |
| 238 | 2% | 13% | |
| 239 | 4% | 11% | |
| 240 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 241 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 242 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 243 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 244 | 3% | 4% | |
| 245 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 246 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 248 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 249 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 253 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 255 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 131 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 132 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 133 | 2% | 97% | |
| 134 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 135 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 136 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 138 | 1.1% | 92% | Last Result |
| 139 | 3% | 90% | |
| 140 | 2% | 87% | |
| 141 | 2% | 86% | |
| 142 | 2% | 83% | |
| 143 | 7% | 81% | |
| 144 | 10% | 74% | |
| 145 | 2% | 64% | |
| 146 | 3% | 62% | |
| 147 | 7% | 59% | |
| 148 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 149 | 1.1% | 47% | |
| 150 | 3% | 46% | |
| 151 | 10% | 43% | |
| 152 | 4% | 33% | |
| 153 | 5% | 29% | |
| 154 | 2% | 24% | |
| 155 | 3% | 22% | |
| 156 | 2% | 19% | |
| 157 | 5% | 17% | |
| 158 | 4% | 11% | |
| 159 | 2% | 7% | |
| 160 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 163 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 35 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 37 | 2% | 95% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 93% | |
| 40 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 41 | 3% | 91% | |
| 42 | 8% | 88% | Last Result |
| 43 | 6% | 80% | |
| 44 | 4% | 73% | |
| 45 | 6% | 69% | |
| 46 | 15% | 63% | Median |
| 47 | 10% | 48% | |
| 48 | 9% | 38% | |
| 49 | 9% | 29% | |
| 50 | 3% | 20% | |
| 51 | 7% | 17% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 10% | |
| 53 | 5% | 9% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 56 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 19 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 21 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 24 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 27 | 4% | 92% | |
| 28 | 20% | 88% | |
| 29 | 14% | 68% | |
| 30 | 12% | 55% | Median |
| 31 | 4% | 43% | |
| 32 | 7% | 38% | |
| 33 | 4% | 31% | |
| 34 | 3% | 27% | |
| 35 | 5% | 24% | |
| 36 | 2% | 19% | |
| 37 | 1.1% | 17% | |
| 38 | 2% | 16% | |
| 39 | 4% | 14% | |
| 40 | 3% | 11% | |
| 41 | 2% | 7% | |
| 42 | 2% | 6% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 45 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 48% | |
| 3 | 0% | 48% | |
| 4 | 0% | 48% | |
| 5 | 0% | 48% | |
| 6 | 0% | 48% | |
| 7 | 0% | 48% | |
| 8 | 0% | 48% | |
| 9 | 0% | 48% | |
| 10 | 0% | 48% | |
| 11 | 0% | 48% | |
| 12 | 0% | 48% | |
| 13 | 0% | 48% | |
| 14 | 0% | 48% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 48% | |
| 16 | 3% | 48% | Last Result |
| 17 | 1.2% | 45% | |
| 18 | 6% | 44% | |
| 19 | 5% | 38% | |
| 20 | 7% | 33% | |
| 21 | 6% | 26% | |
| 22 | 4% | 20% | |
| 23 | 6% | 16% | |
| 24 | 7% | 10% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 26 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 225 | 31% | 210–239 | 206–243 | 203–244 | 197–248 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 148 | 0% | 139–158 | 134–160 | 132–165 | 127–173 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 192 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 193 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 195 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 197 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 199 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 200 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 202 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 203 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 204 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 205 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 206 | 2% | 96% | |
| 207 | 2% | 94% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 93% | |
| 209 | 2% | 93% | |
| 210 | 5% | 91% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 212 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 213 | 5% | 85% | |
| 214 | 2% | 80% | |
| 215 | 5% | 79% | |
| 216 | 2% | 73% | |
| 217 | 3% | 71% | |
| 218 | 4% | 68% | |
| 219 | 1.0% | 65% | |
| 220 | 2% | 64% | |
| 221 | 4% | 61% | |
| 222 | 2% | 58% | |
| 223 | 3% | 56% | |
| 224 | 1.4% | 53% | |
| 225 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 226 | 5% | 47% | |
| 227 | 1.1% | 42% | |
| 228 | 5% | 41% | |
| 229 | 3% | 35% | |
| 230 | 1.4% | 32% | |
| 231 | 2% | 31% | Majority |
| 232 | 4% | 28% | |
| 233 | 1.0% | 24% | |
| 234 | 2% | 23% | |
| 235 | 2% | 21% | Last Result |
| 236 | 5% | 19% | |
| 237 | 1.3% | 14% | |
| 238 | 2% | 13% | |
| 239 | 4% | 11% | |
| 240 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 241 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 242 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 243 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 244 | 3% | 4% | |
| 245 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 246 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 248 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 249 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 253 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 255 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | 0% | 100% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 129 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 98.8% | |
| 131 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 132 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 133 | 2% | 97% | |
| 134 | 1.1% | 96% | |
| 135 | 1.4% | 94% | |
| 136 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 138 | 1.1% | 92% | Last Result |
| 139 | 3% | 90% | |
| 140 | 2% | 87% | |
| 141 | 2% | 86% | |
| 142 | 2% | 83% | |
| 143 | 7% | 81% | |
| 144 | 10% | 74% | |
| 145 | 2% | 64% | |
| 146 | 3% | 62% | |
| 147 | 7% | 59% | |
| 148 | 5% | 52% | Median |
| 149 | 1.1% | 47% | |
| 150 | 3% | 46% | |
| 151 | 10% | 43% | |
| 152 | 4% | 33% | |
| 153 | 5% | 29% | |
| 154 | 2% | 24% | |
| 155 | 3% | 22% | |
| 156 | 2% | 19% | |
| 157 | 5% | 17% | |
| 158 | 4% | 11% | |
| 159 | 2% | 7% | |
| 160 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 162 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 163 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 165 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 167 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 170 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Public
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 9–15 November 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1024
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.63%