Opinion Poll by Kantar Public, 30 November–11 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 34.0% | 32.2–36.0% | 31.7–36.5% | 31.2–37.0% | 30.3–37.9% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 27.0% | 25.3–28.9% | 24.8–29.4% | 24.4–29.8% | 23.6–30.7% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 6.0% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.8% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 228 | 218–246 | 216–250 | 212–253 | 206–260 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 181 | 164–190 | 156–192 | 155–195 | 152–201 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 23 | 11–34 | 0–36 | 0–39 | 0–43 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 28 | 17–33 | 13–35 | 0–36 | 0–40 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0–20 | 0–22 | 0–24 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 199 | 0% | 100% | |
| 200 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 202 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 206 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 210 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 211 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 212 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 213 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 214 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 215 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 216 | 2% | 95% | |
| 217 | 2% | 93% | |
| 218 | 3% | 91% | |
| 219 | 4% | 89% | |
| 220 | 3% | 84% | |
| 221 | 2% | 81% | |
| 222 | 0.5% | 79% | |
| 223 | 12% | 78% | |
| 224 | 2% | 66% | |
| 225 | 2% | 64% | |
| 226 | 8% | 62% | |
| 227 | 1.1% | 54% | |
| 228 | 4% | 52% | Median |
| 229 | 8% | 48% | |
| 230 | 1.1% | 40% | |
| 231 | 0.7% | 39% | Majority |
| 232 | 3% | 38% | |
| 233 | 0.9% | 35% | |
| 234 | 5% | 34% | |
| 235 | 0.6% | 29% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0.8% | 28% | |
| 237 | 2% | 28% | |
| 238 | 2% | 26% | |
| 239 | 4% | 24% | |
| 240 | 2% | 20% | |
| 241 | 2% | 18% | |
| 242 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 243 | 2% | 16% | |
| 244 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 245 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 246 | 3% | 12% | |
| 247 | 2% | 10% | |
| 248 | 2% | 8% | |
| 249 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 250 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 251 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 252 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 253 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 254 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 255 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 256 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 257 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 263 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 265 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 267 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 275 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 154 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 155 | 2% | 98% | |
| 156 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 160 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 161 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 162 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 163 | 0.6% | 91% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 165 | 1.2% | 90% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 88% | |
| 168 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 169 | 0.8% | 87% | |
| 170 | 1.2% | 86% | |
| 171 | 1.4% | 85% | |
| 172 | 2% | 84% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 82% | |
| 174 | 1.2% | 82% | |
| 175 | 4% | 80% | |
| 176 | 5% | 77% | |
| 177 | 2% | 72% | |
| 178 | 2% | 70% | |
| 179 | 2% | 68% | |
| 180 | 10% | 66% | |
| 181 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 182 | 0.9% | 49% | |
| 183 | 4% | 48% | |
| 184 | 5% | 45% | |
| 185 | 10% | 39% | |
| 186 | 4% | 29% | |
| 187 | 6% | 25% | |
| 188 | 4% | 19% | |
| 189 | 3% | 15% | |
| 190 | 3% | 12% | |
| 191 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 192 | 4% | 8% | |
| 193 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 194 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 195 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 197 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 92% | |
| 2 | 0% | 92% | |
| 3 | 0% | 92% | |
| 4 | 0% | 92% | |
| 5 | 0% | 92% | |
| 6 | 0% | 92% | |
| 7 | 0% | 92% | |
| 8 | 0% | 92% | |
| 9 | 0% | 92% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 11 | 3% | 91% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 89% | |
| 13 | 2% | 88% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 86% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 85% | |
| 16 | 5% | 84% | |
| 17 | 1.3% | 80% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 79% | |
| 19 | 2% | 77% | |
| 20 | 4% | 75% | |
| 21 | 5% | 71% | |
| 22 | 13% | 66% | |
| 23 | 5% | 53% | Median |
| 24 | 1.5% | 47% | |
| 25 | 1.4% | 46% | |
| 26 | 7% | 44% | |
| 27 | 3% | 37% | |
| 28 | 5% | 35% | |
| 29 | 7% | 30% | |
| 30 | 1.0% | 23% | |
| 31 | 6% | 22% | |
| 32 | 5% | 16% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 34 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 35 | 3% | 9% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 6% | |
| 37 | 1.5% | 5% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 1.5% | Last Result |
| 43 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | |
| 3 | 0% | 95% | |
| 4 | 0% | 95% | |
| 5 | 0% | 95% | |
| 6 | 0% | 95% | |
| 7 | 0% | 95% | |
| 8 | 0% | 95% | |
| 9 | 0% | 95% | |
| 10 | 0% | 95% | |
| 11 | 0% | 95% | |
| 12 | 0% | 95% | |
| 13 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 93% | |
| 16 | 1.4% | 92% | |
| 17 | 2% | 91% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 89% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 88% | |
| 20 | 3% | 87% | |
| 21 | 2% | 84% | |
| 22 | 1.1% | 82% | |
| 23 | 5% | 81% | |
| 24 | 2% | 76% | |
| 25 | 3% | 75% | |
| 26 | 8% | 72% | |
| 27 | 9% | 64% | |
| 28 | 21% | 55% | Median |
| 29 | 7% | 35% | |
| 30 | 6% | 28% | |
| 31 | 11% | 22% | |
| 32 | 1.1% | 12% | |
| 33 | 5% | 10% | |
| 34 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 35 | 2% | 5% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 5% | |
| 5 | 0% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 5% | |
| 14 | 0% | 5% | |
| 15 | 0% | 5% | |
| 16 | 0% | 5% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0% | 5% | |
| 18 | 0% | 5% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 20 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 21 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 228 | 39% | 218–246 | 216–250 | 212–253 | 206–260 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 181 | 0% | 164–190 | 156–192 | 155–195 | 152–201 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 199 | 0% | 100% | |
| 200 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 201 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 202 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 206 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 208 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 210 | 0.5% | 98.7% | |
| 211 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 212 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 213 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 214 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 215 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 216 | 2% | 95% | |
| 217 | 2% | 93% | |
| 218 | 3% | 91% | |
| 219 | 4% | 89% | |
| 220 | 3% | 84% | |
| 221 | 2% | 81% | |
| 222 | 0.5% | 79% | |
| 223 | 12% | 78% | |
| 224 | 2% | 66% | |
| 225 | 2% | 64% | |
| 226 | 8% | 62% | |
| 227 | 1.1% | 54% | |
| 228 | 4% | 52% | Median |
| 229 | 8% | 48% | |
| 230 | 1.1% | 40% | |
| 231 | 0.7% | 39% | Majority |
| 232 | 3% | 38% | |
| 233 | 0.9% | 35% | |
| 234 | 5% | 34% | |
| 235 | 0.6% | 29% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0.8% | 28% | |
| 237 | 2% | 28% | |
| 238 | 2% | 26% | |
| 239 | 4% | 24% | |
| 240 | 2% | 20% | |
| 241 | 2% | 18% | |
| 242 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 243 | 2% | 16% | |
| 244 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 245 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 246 | 3% | 12% | |
| 247 | 2% | 10% | |
| 248 | 2% | 8% | |
| 249 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 250 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 251 | 1.1% | 5% | |
| 252 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 253 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 254 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 255 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 256 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 257 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 258 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 260 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 263 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 265 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 267 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 269 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 275 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 153 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 154 | 0.7% | 99.0% | |
| 155 | 2% | 98% | |
| 156 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 157 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 160 | 1.1% | 94% | |
| 161 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 162 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 163 | 0.6% | 91% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 165 | 1.2% | 90% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 88% | |
| 168 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 169 | 0.8% | 87% | |
| 170 | 1.2% | 86% | |
| 171 | 1.4% | 85% | |
| 172 | 2% | 84% | |
| 173 | 0.5% | 82% | |
| 174 | 1.2% | 82% | |
| 175 | 4% | 80% | |
| 176 | 5% | 77% | |
| 177 | 2% | 72% | |
| 178 | 2% | 70% | |
| 179 | 2% | 68% | |
| 180 | 10% | 66% | |
| 181 | 6% | 55% | Median |
| 182 | 0.9% | 49% | |
| 183 | 4% | 48% | |
| 184 | 5% | 45% | |
| 185 | 10% | 39% | |
| 186 | 4% | 29% | |
| 187 | 6% | 25% | |
| 188 | 4% | 19% | |
| 189 | 3% | 15% | |
| 190 | 3% | 12% | |
| 191 | 1.1% | 9% | |
| 192 | 4% | 8% | |
| 193 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 194 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 195 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 197 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 211 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Public
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 30 November–11 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1028
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.48%