Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Rzeczpospolita, 4 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 39.1% | 37.2–41.0% | 36.7–41.5% | 36.2–42.0% | 35.4–42.9% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 26.3% | 24.6–28.0% | 24.2–28.5% | 23.7–29.0% | 23.0–29.8% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.8–7.8% | 5.6–8.1% | 5.4–8.4% | 5.0–8.9% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.4% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.3–7.0% | 3.9–7.5% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 2.0–4.0% | 1.8–4.4% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.0–1.9% | 0.9–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.7–2.5% |
| .Nowoczesna | 7.6% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 254 | 237–260 | 233–265 | 227–270 | 222–278 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 165 | 152–179 | 149–182 | 145–183 | 139–186 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 29 | 23–33 | 20–36 | 19–36 | 0–40 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 12 | 0–24 | 0–27 | 0–32 | 0–36 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 0 | 0–21 | 0–24 | 0–25 | 0–28 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| .Nowoczesna | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 216 | 0% | 100% | |
| 217 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 219 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 220 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 222 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 223 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 224 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 226 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 228 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 230 | 0% | 97% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 97% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 233 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 234 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 235 | 0.5% | 94% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 237 | 3% | 93% | |
| 238 | 5% | 89% | |
| 239 | 4% | 84% | |
| 240 | 0.9% | 80% | |
| 241 | 0.6% | 79% | |
| 242 | 1.2% | 78% | |
| 243 | 3% | 77% | |
| 244 | 2% | 75% | |
| 245 | 2% | 73% | |
| 246 | 0.4% | 71% | |
| 247 | 8% | 70% | |
| 248 | 6% | 62% | |
| 249 | 0.9% | 56% | |
| 250 | 1.2% | 55% | |
| 251 | 1.0% | 54% | |
| 252 | 1.4% | 53% | |
| 253 | 1.1% | 52% | |
| 254 | 15% | 51% | Median |
| 255 | 0.8% | 36% | |
| 256 | 20% | 35% | |
| 257 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 258 | 2% | 14% | |
| 259 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 260 | 3% | 12% | |
| 261 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 262 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 263 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 264 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 265 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 266 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 267 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 268 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 269 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 270 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 271 | 0% | 2% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 273 | 0% | 2% | |
| 274 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 275 | 0% | 2% | |
| 276 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 277 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 278 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 139 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 141 | 0% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0% | 98% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 145 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 147 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 149 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 151 | 4% | 94% | |
| 152 | 1.2% | 90% | |
| 153 | 2% | 89% | |
| 154 | 0.9% | 88% | |
| 155 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 156 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 157 | 2% | 85% | |
| 158 | 2% | 83% | |
| 159 | 2% | 81% | |
| 160 | 4% | 79% | |
| 161 | 2% | 75% | |
| 162 | 5% | 73% | |
| 163 | 2% | 67% | |
| 164 | 15% | 66% | |
| 165 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 166 | 22% | 49% | |
| 167 | 2% | 27% | |
| 168 | 2% | 25% | |
| 169 | 0% | 24% | |
| 170 | 1.3% | 23% | |
| 171 | 0.6% | 22% | |
| 172 | 0.9% | 22% | |
| 173 | 1.5% | 21% | |
| 174 | 2% | 19% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 17% | |
| 176 | 1.2% | 17% | |
| 177 | 3% | 16% | |
| 178 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 179 | 4% | 12% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 181 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 182 | 2% | 7% | |
| 183 | 4% | 5% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 14 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 15 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 19 | 2% | 98% | |
| 20 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 22 | 3% | 94% | |
| 23 | 2% | 92% | |
| 24 | 3% | 90% | |
| 25 | 4% | 86% | |
| 26 | 5% | 82% | |
| 27 | 6% | 77% | |
| 28 | 10% | 71% | |
| 29 | 32% | 61% | Median |
| 30 | 13% | 29% | |
| 31 | 3% | 16% | |
| 32 | 2% | 13% | |
| 33 | 2% | 11% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 9% | |
| 36 | 4% | 6% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 38 | 2% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 79% | |
| 2 | 0% | 79% | |
| 3 | 0% | 79% | |
| 4 | 0% | 79% | |
| 5 | 0% | 79% | |
| 6 | 0% | 79% | |
| 7 | 0% | 79% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 79% | |
| 9 | 21% | 78% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 57% | |
| 11 | 3% | 56% | |
| 12 | 15% | 54% | Median |
| 13 | 6% | 39% | |
| 14 | 1.3% | 33% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 32% | |
| 16 | 2% | 31% | |
| 17 | 3% | 29% | |
| 18 | 4% | 26% | |
| 19 | 2% | 22% | |
| 20 | 1.2% | 20% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 19% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 23 | 5% | 17% | |
| 24 | 2% | 11% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 26 | 1.0% | 10% | |
| 27 | 4% | 9% | |
| 28 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 30 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 31 | 0% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 75% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 25% | |
| 2 | 0% | 25% | |
| 3 | 0% | 25% | |
| 4 | 0% | 25% | |
| 5 | 0% | 25% | |
| 6 | 0% | 25% | |
| 7 | 0% | 25% | |
| 8 | 0% | 25% | |
| 9 | 0% | 25% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 25% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 24% | |
| 12 | 5% | 24% | |
| 13 | 4% | 19% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 15% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 14% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 12% | |
| 19 | 0% | 11% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 21 | 1.1% | 10% | |
| 22 | 2% | 9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 7% | |
| 24 | 2% | 5% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 254 | 97% | 237–260 | 233–265 | 227–270 | 222–278 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Lewica Razem – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 195 | 0.1% | 184–212 | 181–214 | 179–220 | 171–224 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 195 | 0.1% | 184–212 | 181–214 | 179–220 | 171–224 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 195 | 0% | 178–208 | 174–212 | 169–213 | 164–216 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 166 | 0% | 159–183 | 156–187 | 153–187 | 148–199 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 165 | 0% | 152–179 | 149–182 | 145–183 | 139–186 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 165 | 0% | 152–179 | 149–182 | 145–183 | 139–186 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 216 | 0% | 100% | |
| 217 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 219 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 220 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 222 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 223 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 224 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 226 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 227 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 228 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 230 | 0% | 97% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 97% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 233 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 234 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 235 | 0.5% | 94% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 237 | 3% | 93% | |
| 238 | 5% | 89% | |
| 239 | 4% | 84% | |
| 240 | 0.9% | 80% | |
| 241 | 0.6% | 79% | |
| 242 | 1.2% | 78% | |
| 243 | 3% | 77% | |
| 244 | 2% | 75% | |
| 245 | 2% | 73% | |
| 246 | 0.4% | 71% | |
| 247 | 8% | 70% | |
| 248 | 6% | 62% | |
| 249 | 0.9% | 56% | |
| 250 | 1.2% | 55% | |
| 251 | 1.0% | 54% | |
| 252 | 1.4% | 53% | |
| 253 | 1.1% | 52% | |
| 254 | 15% | 51% | Median |
| 255 | 0.8% | 36% | |
| 256 | 20% | 35% | |
| 257 | 0.5% | 15% | |
| 258 | 2% | 14% | |
| 259 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 260 | 3% | 12% | |
| 261 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 262 | 0.6% | 8% | |
| 263 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 264 | 1.4% | 7% | |
| 265 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 266 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 267 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 268 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 269 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 270 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 271 | 0% | 2% | |
| 272 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 273 | 0% | 2% | |
| 274 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 275 | 0% | 2% | |
| 276 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 277 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 278 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 279 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 280 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 281 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 283 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Lewica Razem – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 162 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 168 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 169 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 170 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 176 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 179 | 2% | 98% | |
| 180 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 181 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 182 | 1.3% | 95% | Last Result |
| 183 | 2% | 93% | |
| 184 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 90% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 188 | 2% | 89% | |
| 189 | 1.1% | 87% | |
| 190 | 8% | 86% | |
| 191 | 1.1% | 77% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 76% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 76% | |
| 194 | 11% | 76% | Median |
| 195 | 22% | 64% | |
| 196 | 3% | 43% | |
| 197 | 1.4% | 40% | |
| 198 | 0.7% | 38% | |
| 199 | 2% | 37% | |
| 200 | 4% | 36% | |
| 201 | 0.9% | 32% | |
| 202 | 1.4% | 31% | |
| 203 | 1.0% | 29% | |
| 204 | 3% | 28% | |
| 205 | 1.0% | 25% | |
| 206 | 0.3% | 24% | |
| 207 | 0.8% | 24% | |
| 208 | 5% | 23% | |
| 209 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 210 | 3% | 17% | |
| 211 | 1.1% | 14% | |
| 212 | 4% | 12% | |
| 213 | 3% | 8% | |
| 214 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 216 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 217 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 218 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 220 | 0% | 3% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 222 | 2% | 2% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 228 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 232 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 162 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 164 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 165 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 168 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 169 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 170 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 174 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 98.8% | |
| 176 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 179 | 2% | 98% | |
| 180 | 1.5% | 97% | |
| 181 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 182 | 1.3% | 95% | Last Result |
| 183 | 2% | 93% | |
| 184 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 90% | |
| 186 | 0.3% | 89% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 89% | |
| 188 | 2% | 89% | |
| 189 | 1.1% | 87% | |
| 190 | 8% | 86% | |
| 191 | 1.1% | 77% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 76% | |
| 193 | 0.2% | 76% | |
| 194 | 11% | 76% | Median |
| 195 | 22% | 64% | |
| 196 | 3% | 43% | |
| 197 | 1.4% | 40% | |
| 198 | 0.7% | 38% | |
| 199 | 2% | 37% | |
| 200 | 4% | 36% | |
| 201 | 0.9% | 32% | |
| 202 | 1.4% | 31% | |
| 203 | 1.0% | 29% | |
| 204 | 3% | 28% | |
| 205 | 1.0% | 25% | |
| 206 | 0.3% | 24% | |
| 207 | 0.8% | 24% | |
| 208 | 5% | 23% | |
| 209 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 210 | 3% | 17% | |
| 211 | 1.1% | 14% | |
| 212 | 4% | 12% | |
| 213 | 3% | 8% | |
| 214 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 216 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 217 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 218 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 220 | 0% | 3% | |
| 221 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 222 | 2% | 2% | |
| 223 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 226 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 228 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 229 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 232 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 164 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 165 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 167 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 169 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 173 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 175 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 176 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 177 | 3% | 94% | |
| 178 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 179 | 1.5% | 90% | |
| 180 | 2% | 88% | |
| 181 | 0.3% | 87% | |
| 182 | 1.5% | 87% | Last Result |
| 183 | 3% | 85% | |
| 184 | 2% | 82% | |
| 185 | 0.4% | 81% | |
| 186 | 0.6% | 80% | |
| 187 | 0.7% | 80% | |
| 188 | 3% | 79% | |
| 189 | 1.5% | 76% | |
| 190 | 8% | 75% | |
| 191 | 2% | 66% | |
| 192 | 0.5% | 65% | |
| 193 | 2% | 64% | |
| 194 | 11% | 63% | Median |
| 195 | 23% | 51% | |
| 196 | 3% | 28% | |
| 197 | 2% | 26% | |
| 198 | 1.2% | 24% | |
| 199 | 0.3% | 23% | |
| 200 | 2% | 23% | |
| 201 | 2% | 20% | |
| 202 | 0.7% | 18% | |
| 203 | 0.3% | 18% | |
| 204 | 3% | 17% | |
| 205 | 0.4% | 14% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 208 | 4% | 13% | |
| 209 | 2% | 9% | |
| 210 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 211 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 212 | 4% | 7% | |
| 213 | 2% | 3% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 216 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 144 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 149 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 152 | 0% | 98% | |
| 153 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 155 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 157 | 2% | 95% | |
| 158 | 2% | 93% | |
| 159 | 1.4% | 90% | |
| 160 | 4% | 89% | |
| 161 | 2% | 85% | |
| 162 | 5% | 83% | |
| 163 | 2% | 78% | |
| 164 | 15% | 77% | |
| 165 | 1.0% | 62% | Median |
| 166 | 22% | 61% | Last Result |
| 167 | 1.3% | 39% | |
| 168 | 0% | 38% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 38% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 38% | |
| 171 | 1.0% | 37% | |
| 172 | 0.6% | 36% | |
| 173 | 2% | 36% | |
| 174 | 2% | 34% | |
| 175 | 0.6% | 32% | |
| 176 | 2% | 31% | |
| 177 | 4% | 30% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 26% | |
| 179 | 4% | 25% | |
| 180 | 2% | 20% | |
| 181 | 2% | 18% | |
| 182 | 4% | 16% | |
| 183 | 4% | 12% | |
| 184 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 185 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 186 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 187 | 3% | 5% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 189 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 194 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 200 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 139 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 141 | 0% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0% | 98% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 145 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 147 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 149 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 151 | 4% | 94% | |
| 152 | 1.2% | 90% | |
| 153 | 2% | 89% | |
| 154 | 0.9% | 88% | |
| 155 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 156 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 157 | 2% | 85% | |
| 158 | 2% | 83% | |
| 159 | 2% | 81% | |
| 160 | 4% | 79% | |
| 161 | 2% | 75% | |
| 162 | 5% | 73% | |
| 163 | 2% | 67% | |
| 164 | 15% | 66% | |
| 165 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 166 | 22% | 49% | Last Result |
| 167 | 2% | 27% | |
| 168 | 2% | 25% | |
| 169 | 0% | 24% | |
| 170 | 1.3% | 23% | |
| 171 | 0.6% | 22% | |
| 172 | 0.9% | 22% | |
| 173 | 1.5% | 21% | |
| 174 | 2% | 19% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 17% | |
| 176 | 1.2% | 17% | |
| 177 | 3% | 16% | |
| 178 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 179 | 4% | 12% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 181 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 182 | 2% | 7% | |
| 183 | 4% | 5% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 134 | 0% | 100% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 136 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 137 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 139 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 98.7% | |
| 141 | 0% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0% | 98% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 145 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 147 | 0.7% | 97% | |
| 148 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 149 | 1.3% | 96% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 151 | 4% | 94% | |
| 152 | 1.2% | 90% | |
| 153 | 2% | 89% | |
| 154 | 0.9% | 88% | |
| 155 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 156 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 157 | 2% | 85% | |
| 158 | 2% | 83% | |
| 159 | 2% | 81% | |
| 160 | 4% | 79% | |
| 161 | 2% | 75% | |
| 162 | 5% | 73% | |
| 163 | 2% | 67% | |
| 164 | 15% | 66% | |
| 165 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 166 | 22% | 49% | |
| 167 | 2% | 27% | |
| 168 | 2% | 25% | |
| 169 | 0% | 24% | |
| 170 | 1.3% | 23% | |
| 171 | 0.6% | 22% | |
| 172 | 0.9% | 22% | |
| 173 | 1.5% | 21% | |
| 174 | 2% | 19% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 17% | |
| 176 | 1.2% | 17% | |
| 177 | 3% | 16% | |
| 178 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 179 | 4% | 12% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 181 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 182 | 2% | 7% | |
| 183 | 4% | 5% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 192 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: IBRiS
- Commissioner(s): Rzeczpospolita
- Fieldwork period: 4 January 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.64%