Opinion Poll by Kantar Millward Brown for Gazeta Wyborcza, 15–16 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 27.8% | 26.0–29.6% | 25.5–30.2% | 25.1–30.6% | 24.2–31.6% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 23.2% | 21.5–25.0% | 21.1–25.5% | 20.7–25.9% | 19.9–26.8% |
| Wiosna | 0.0% | 7.4% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.2–8.9% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.5–9.8% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 4.6% | 3.8–5.6% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.1–6.6% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.8–5.6% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.1–6.6% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.3–2.8% | 1.2–3.0% | 1.0–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 220 | 204–241 | 199–242 | 197–244 | 191–255 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 176 | 162–190 | 158–195 | 156–198 | 151–209 |
| Wiosna | 0 | 43 | 37–52 | 34–56 | 31–61 | 29–67 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 0 | 0–31 | 0–34 | 0–35 | 0–40 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 0 | 0–27 | 0–28 | 0–29 | 0–35 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178 | 0% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 183 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 184 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 186 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 187 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 188 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 189 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 190 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 191 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 194 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 195 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 197 | 2% | 98% | |
| 198 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 199 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 200 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 201 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 202 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 203 | 2% | 92% | |
| 204 | 1.3% | 90% | |
| 205 | 4% | 89% | |
| 206 | 3% | 85% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 208 | 0.6% | 83% | |
| 209 | 1.1% | 82% | |
| 210 | 0.7% | 81% | |
| 211 | 2% | 80% | |
| 212 | 0.5% | 79% | |
| 213 | 2% | 78% | |
| 214 | 1.3% | 76% | |
| 215 | 3% | 75% | |
| 216 | 1.3% | 72% | |
| 217 | 6% | 70% | |
| 218 | 7% | 64% | |
| 219 | 2% | 57% | |
| 220 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 221 | 3% | 45% | |
| 222 | 0.4% | 42% | |
| 223 | 1.2% | 42% | |
| 224 | 0.7% | 41% | |
| 225 | 5% | 40% | |
| 226 | 2% | 35% | |
| 227 | 0.6% | 33% | |
| 228 | 0.3% | 33% | |
| 229 | 0.7% | 33% | |
| 230 | 6% | 32% | |
| 231 | 6% | 26% | Majority |
| 232 | 3% | 20% | |
| 233 | 1.3% | 16% | |
| 234 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 235 | 0.4% | 15% | Last Result |
| 236 | 2% | 14% | |
| 237 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 241 | 2% | 11% | |
| 242 | 5% | 9% | |
| 243 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 244 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 246 | 0% | 2% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 249 | 0% | 2% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 251 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 252 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 253 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 254 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 255 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 257 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 155 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 156 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 157 | 2% | 97% | |
| 158 | 2% | 96% | |
| 159 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 162 | 2% | 92% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 164 | 2% | 89% | |
| 165 | 5% | 88% | |
| 166 | 2% | 82% | |
| 167 | 4% | 81% | |
| 168 | 2% | 77% | |
| 169 | 4% | 75% | |
| 170 | 2% | 71% | |
| 171 | 2% | 68% | |
| 172 | 0.8% | 67% | |
| 173 | 0.6% | 66% | |
| 174 | 5% | 65% | |
| 175 | 5% | 60% | |
| 176 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 177 | 4% | 47% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 43% | |
| 179 | 3% | 42% | |
| 180 | 4% | 39% | |
| 181 | 3% | 35% | |
| 182 | 1.1% | 32% | |
| 183 | 0.8% | 31% | |
| 184 | 0.6% | 30% | |
| 185 | 2% | 29% | |
| 186 | 1.4% | 28% | |
| 187 | 1.4% | 26% | |
| 188 | 2% | 25% | |
| 189 | 6% | 23% | |
| 190 | 7% | 17% | |
| 191 | 2% | 9% | |
| 192 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 194 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 195 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 197 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 202 | 0% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 209 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 210 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% |
Wiosna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wiosna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 32 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 95% | |
| 35 | 2% | 95% | |
| 36 | 2% | 93% | |
| 37 | 5% | 91% | |
| 38 | 2% | 86% | |
| 39 | 5% | 84% | |
| 40 | 5% | 79% | |
| 41 | 9% | 74% | |
| 42 | 12% | 64% | |
| 43 | 11% | 52% | Median |
| 44 | 2% | 41% | |
| 45 | 2% | 38% | |
| 46 | 3% | 36% | |
| 47 | 5% | 33% | |
| 48 | 3% | 28% | |
| 49 | 7% | 25% | |
| 50 | 5% | 19% | |
| 51 | 3% | 13% | |
| 52 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 53 | 2% | 9% | |
| 54 | 2% | 7% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 5% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 62% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 38% | |
| 2 | 0% | 38% | |
| 3 | 0% | 38% | |
| 4 | 0% | 38% | |
| 5 | 0% | 38% | |
| 6 | 0% | 38% | |
| 7 | 0% | 38% | |
| 8 | 0% | 38% | |
| 9 | 0% | 38% | |
| 10 | 0% | 38% | |
| 11 | 0% | 38% | |
| 12 | 0% | 38% | |
| 13 | 0% | 38% | |
| 14 | 0% | 38% | |
| 15 | 0% | 38% | |
| 16 | 0% | 38% | |
| 17 | 0% | 38% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 38% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 38% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 38% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 37% | |
| 22 | 3% | 37% | |
| 23 | 3% | 34% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 31% | |
| 25 | 6% | 30% | |
| 26 | 8% | 24% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 16% | |
| 28 | 3% | 16% | |
| 29 | 2% | 13% | |
| 30 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 31 | 3% | 11% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 34 | 3% | 6% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 1.2% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 73% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 27% | |
| 2 | 0% | 27% | |
| 3 | 0% | 27% | |
| 4 | 0% | 27% | |
| 5 | 0% | 27% | |
| 6 | 0% | 27% | |
| 7 | 0% | 27% | |
| 8 | 0% | 27% | |
| 9 | 0% | 27% | |
| 10 | 0% | 27% | |
| 11 | 0% | 27% | |
| 12 | 0% | 27% | |
| 13 | 0% | 27% | |
| 14 | 0% | 27% | |
| 15 | 0% | 27% | |
| 16 | 0% | 27% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0% | 27% | |
| 18 | 0% | 27% | |
| 19 | 0% | 27% | |
| 20 | 0% | 27% | |
| 21 | 0% | 27% | |
| 22 | 0% | 27% | |
| 23 | 3% | 27% | |
| 24 | 2% | 24% | |
| 25 | 5% | 22% | |
| 26 | 5% | 17% | |
| 27 | 3% | 12% | |
| 28 | 5% | 9% | |
| 29 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 1.5% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 220 | 26% | 204–241 | 199–242 | 197–244 | 191–255 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 176 | 0% | 162–190 | 158–195 | 156–198 | 151–209 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 178 | 0% | 100% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 182 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 183 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 184 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 186 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 187 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 188 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 189 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 190 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 191 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 194 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 195 | 0.6% | 98.6% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 197 | 2% | 98% | |
| 198 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 199 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 200 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 201 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 202 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 203 | 2% | 92% | |
| 204 | 1.3% | 90% | |
| 205 | 4% | 89% | |
| 206 | 3% | 85% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 83% | |
| 208 | 0.6% | 83% | |
| 209 | 1.1% | 82% | |
| 210 | 0.7% | 81% | |
| 211 | 2% | 80% | |
| 212 | 0.5% | 79% | |
| 213 | 2% | 78% | |
| 214 | 1.3% | 76% | |
| 215 | 3% | 75% | |
| 216 | 1.3% | 72% | |
| 217 | 6% | 70% | |
| 218 | 7% | 64% | |
| 219 | 2% | 57% | |
| 220 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 221 | 3% | 45% | |
| 222 | 0.4% | 42% | |
| 223 | 1.2% | 42% | |
| 224 | 0.7% | 41% | |
| 225 | 5% | 40% | |
| 226 | 2% | 35% | |
| 227 | 0.6% | 33% | |
| 228 | 0.3% | 33% | |
| 229 | 0.7% | 33% | |
| 230 | 6% | 32% | |
| 231 | 6% | 26% | Majority |
| 232 | 3% | 20% | |
| 233 | 1.3% | 16% | |
| 234 | 0.2% | 15% | |
| 235 | 0.4% | 15% | Last Result |
| 236 | 2% | 14% | |
| 237 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 241 | 2% | 11% | |
| 242 | 5% | 9% | |
| 243 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 244 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 245 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 246 | 0% | 2% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 249 | 0% | 2% | |
| 250 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 251 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 252 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 253 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 254 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 255 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 257 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 154 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 155 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 156 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 157 | 2% | 97% | |
| 158 | 2% | 96% | |
| 159 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 160 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 161 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 162 | 2% | 92% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 90% | |
| 164 | 2% | 89% | |
| 165 | 5% | 88% | |
| 166 | 2% | 82% | |
| 167 | 4% | 81% | |
| 168 | 2% | 77% | |
| 169 | 4% | 75% | |
| 170 | 2% | 71% | |
| 171 | 2% | 68% | |
| 172 | 0.8% | 67% | |
| 173 | 0.6% | 66% | |
| 174 | 5% | 65% | |
| 175 | 5% | 60% | |
| 176 | 9% | 56% | Median |
| 177 | 4% | 47% | |
| 178 | 0.8% | 43% | |
| 179 | 3% | 42% | |
| 180 | 4% | 39% | |
| 181 | 3% | 35% | |
| 182 | 1.1% | 32% | |
| 183 | 0.8% | 31% | |
| 184 | 0.6% | 30% | |
| 185 | 2% | 29% | |
| 186 | 1.4% | 28% | |
| 187 | 1.4% | 26% | |
| 188 | 2% | 25% | |
| 189 | 6% | 23% | |
| 190 | 7% | 17% | |
| 191 | 2% | 9% | |
| 192 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 194 | 1.1% | 6% | |
| 195 | 1.2% | 5% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 197 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 199 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 202 | 0% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 209 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 210 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Kantar Millward Brown
- Commissioner(s): Gazeta Wyborcza
- Fieldwork period: 15–16 January 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1001
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 2.56%