Opinion Poll by Estymator for DoRzeczy.pl, 23–24 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 42.4% | 40.4–44.4% | 39.9–45.0% | 39.4–45.5% | 38.4–46.5% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 31.1% | 29.3–33.1% | 28.8–33.6% | 28.3–34.1% | 27.5–35.0% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.5–9.8% | 7.2–10.2% | 7.0–10.5% | 6.5–11.1% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.9–7.9% | 5.6–8.2% | 5.4–8.5% | 5.0–9.1% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 4.8% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.8–6.1% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.3–6.8% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| .Nowoczesna | 7.6% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 236 | 220–246 | 216–250 | 215–250 | 210–254 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 169 | 159–179 | 156–181 | 153–184 | 145–188 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 31 | 26–41 | 21–43 | 20–44 | 16–47 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 23 | 15–27 | 15–27 | 13–28 | 11–34 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–11 | 0–14 | 0–21 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| .Nowoczesna | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 207 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 210 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 212 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 214 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 215 | 2% | 98% | |
| 216 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 217 | 4% | 95% | |
| 218 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 219 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 220 | 4% | 90% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 222 | 2% | 86% | |
| 223 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 224 | 0.6% | 83% | |
| 225 | 0.7% | 83% | |
| 226 | 1.0% | 82% | |
| 227 | 0.4% | 81% | |
| 228 | 1.1% | 81% | |
| 229 | 2% | 79% | |
| 230 | 5% | 77% | |
| 231 | 2% | 73% | Majority |
| 232 | 5% | 70% | |
| 233 | 4% | 65% | |
| 234 | 3% | 61% | |
| 235 | 3% | 58% | Last Result |
| 236 | 23% | 56% | Median |
| 237 | 7% | 32% | |
| 238 | 0.5% | 25% | |
| 239 | 0.8% | 25% | |
| 240 | 1.0% | 24% | |
| 241 | 3% | 23% | |
| 242 | 7% | 20% | |
| 243 | 2% | 13% | |
| 244 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 245 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 246 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 247 | 2% | 9% | |
| 248 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 249 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 250 | 4% | 6% | |
| 251 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 253 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 254 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 255 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 263 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 154 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 156 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 159 | 4% | 93% | |
| 160 | 4% | 89% | |
| 161 | 6% | 86% | |
| 162 | 6% | 79% | |
| 163 | 1.1% | 74% | |
| 164 | 4% | 73% | |
| 165 | 8% | 69% | |
| 166 | 4% | 60% | |
| 167 | 1.0% | 57% | |
| 168 | 6% | 56% | |
| 169 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 170 | 1.2% | 45% | |
| 171 | 22% | 44% | |
| 172 | 4% | 22% | |
| 173 | 2% | 18% | |
| 174 | 3% | 15% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 12% | |
| 179 | 4% | 12% | |
| 180 | 2% | 7% | |
| 181 | 2% | 5% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 184 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 185 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 99.1% | |
| 20 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 21 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 23 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 24 | 1.5% | 93% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 90% | |
| 27 | 5% | 90% | |
| 28 | 4% | 85% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 81% | |
| 30 | 23% | 80% | |
| 31 | 7% | 57% | Median |
| 32 | 0.7% | 50% | |
| 33 | 2% | 49% | |
| 34 | 2% | 48% | |
| 35 | 2% | 46% | |
| 36 | 8% | 44% | |
| 37 | 5% | 36% | |
| 38 | 8% | 31% | |
| 39 | 1.4% | 23% | |
| 40 | 6% | 21% | |
| 41 | 7% | 16% | |
| 42 | 3% | 9% | Last Result |
| 43 | 3% | 6% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 1.0% | 98.9% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 15 | 6% | 96% | |
| 16 | 2% | 90% | Last Result |
| 17 | 4% | 88% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 85% | |
| 19 | 1.4% | 84% | |
| 20 | 1.3% | 83% | |
| 21 | 3% | 81% | |
| 22 | 13% | 79% | |
| 23 | 34% | 65% | Median |
| 24 | 6% | 32% | |
| 25 | 3% | 26% | |
| 26 | 11% | 22% | |
| 27 | 9% | 12% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 74% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 26% | |
| 2 | 0% | 26% | |
| 3 | 0% | 26% | |
| 4 | 0% | 26% | |
| 5 | 0% | 26% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 26% | |
| 7 | 6% | 26% | |
| 8 | 6% | 20% | |
| 9 | 4% | 14% | |
| 10 | 1.5% | 10% | |
| 11 | 3% | 8% | |
| 12 | 2% | 5% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 236 | 73% | 220–246 | 216–250 | 215–250 | 210–254 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Lewica Razem – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 194 | 0% | 182–204 | 182–212 | 177–212 | 174–216 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 194 | 0% | 182–204 | 182–212 | 177–212 | 174–216 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 191 | 0% | 182–201 | 177–203 | 174–208 | 165–212 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 171 | 0% | 160–183 | 159–188 | 157–188 | 151–194 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 169 | 0% | 159–179 | 156–181 | 153–184 | 145–188 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 169 | 0% | 159–179 | 156–181 | 153–184 | 145–188 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 204 | 0% | 100% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 207 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 210 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 212 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 214 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 215 | 2% | 98% | |
| 216 | 1.4% | 96% | |
| 217 | 4% | 95% | |
| 218 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 219 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 220 | 4% | 90% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 86% | |
| 222 | 2% | 86% | |
| 223 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 224 | 0.6% | 83% | |
| 225 | 0.7% | 83% | |
| 226 | 1.0% | 82% | |
| 227 | 0.4% | 81% | |
| 228 | 1.1% | 81% | |
| 229 | 2% | 79% | |
| 230 | 5% | 77% | |
| 231 | 2% | 73% | Majority |
| 232 | 5% | 70% | |
| 233 | 4% | 65% | |
| 234 | 3% | 61% | |
| 235 | 3% | 58% | Last Result |
| 236 | 23% | 56% | Median |
| 237 | 7% | 32% | |
| 238 | 0.5% | 25% | |
| 239 | 0.8% | 25% | |
| 240 | 1.0% | 24% | |
| 241 | 3% | 23% | |
| 242 | 7% | 20% | |
| 243 | 2% | 13% | |
| 244 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 245 | 0.3% | 11% | |
| 246 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 247 | 2% | 9% | |
| 248 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 249 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 250 | 4% | 6% | |
| 251 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 253 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 254 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 255 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 256 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 263 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Lewica Razem – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166 | 0% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 172 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 176 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 177 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 179 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 181 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 182 | 8% | 95% | Last Result |
| 183 | 10% | 87% | |
| 184 | 0.7% | 78% | |
| 185 | 1.1% | 77% | |
| 186 | 4% | 76% | |
| 187 | 5% | 72% | |
| 188 | 3% | 67% | |
| 189 | 3% | 63% | |
| 190 | 0.3% | 60% | |
| 191 | 2% | 60% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 58% | Median |
| 193 | 2% | 58% | |
| 194 | 22% | 56% | |
| 195 | 5% | 34% | |
| 196 | 0.9% | 29% | |
| 197 | 1.2% | 28% | |
| 198 | 2% | 27% | |
| 199 | 3% | 25% | |
| 200 | 0.7% | 22% | |
| 201 | 1.4% | 21% | |
| 202 | 8% | 20% | |
| 203 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 204 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 206 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 208 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 209 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 210 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 212 | 4% | 5% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 216 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166 | 0% | 100% | |
| 167 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 172 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 176 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 177 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 179 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 180 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 181 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 182 | 8% | 95% | Last Result |
| 183 | 10% | 87% | |
| 184 | 0.7% | 78% | |
| 185 | 1.1% | 77% | |
| 186 | 4% | 76% | |
| 187 | 5% | 72% | |
| 188 | 3% | 67% | |
| 189 | 3% | 63% | |
| 190 | 0.3% | 60% | |
| 191 | 2% | 60% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 58% | Median |
| 193 | 2% | 58% | |
| 194 | 22% | 56% | |
| 195 | 5% | 34% | |
| 196 | 0.9% | 29% | |
| 197 | 1.2% | 28% | |
| 198 | 2% | 27% | |
| 199 | 3% | 25% | |
| 200 | 0.7% | 22% | |
| 201 | 1.4% | 21% | |
| 202 | 8% | 20% | |
| 203 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 204 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 9% | |
| 206 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 208 | 1.3% | 8% | |
| 209 | 1.0% | 7% | |
| 210 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 212 | 4% | 5% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 1.4% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 216 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 224 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 159 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 161 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 162 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 170 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 172 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 174 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 175 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 177 | 1.5% | 96% | |
| 178 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 179 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 181 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 182 | 8% | 92% | Last Result |
| 183 | 10% | 84% | |
| 184 | 0.9% | 73% | |
| 185 | 0.9% | 72% | |
| 186 | 3% | 72% | |
| 187 | 7% | 68% | |
| 188 | 4% | 62% | |
| 189 | 3% | 58% | |
| 190 | 0.7% | 56% | |
| 191 | 5% | 55% | |
| 192 | 1.3% | 50% | Median |
| 193 | 1.3% | 48% | |
| 194 | 22% | 47% | |
| 195 | 9% | 25% | |
| 196 | 0.8% | 15% | |
| 197 | 0.8% | 14% | |
| 198 | 2% | 14% | |
| 199 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 200 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 201 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 202 | 2% | 10% | |
| 203 | 4% | 8% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 205 | 0% | 4% | |
| 206 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 208 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 209 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 210 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 212 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 145 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 147 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 148 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 149 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 150 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 151 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 154 | 0.6% | 99.2% | |
| 155 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 156 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 159 | 3% | 97% | |
| 160 | 4% | 93% | |
| 161 | 5% | 90% | |
| 162 | 6% | 84% | |
| 163 | 0.7% | 78% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 77% | |
| 165 | 8% | 77% | |
| 166 | 2% | 69% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0.6% | 66% | |
| 168 | 5% | 66% | |
| 169 | 2% | 60% | Median |
| 170 | 1.2% | 59% | |
| 171 | 22% | 57% | |
| 172 | 5% | 35% | |
| 173 | 1.0% | 30% | |
| 174 | 5% | 29% | |
| 175 | 3% | 24% | |
| 176 | 5% | 21% | |
| 177 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 179 | 1.1% | 15% | |
| 180 | 2% | 14% | |
| 181 | 2% | 13% | |
| 182 | 0.2% | 11% | |
| 183 | 0.5% | 10% | |
| 184 | 2% | 10% | |
| 185 | 2% | 8% | |
| 186 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 188 | 4% | 5% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 190 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 191 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 200 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 154 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 156 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 159 | 4% | 93% | |
| 160 | 4% | 89% | |
| 161 | 6% | 86% | |
| 162 | 6% | 79% | |
| 163 | 1.1% | 74% | |
| 164 | 4% | 73% | |
| 165 | 8% | 69% | |
| 166 | 4% | 60% | Last Result |
| 167 | 1.0% | 57% | |
| 168 | 6% | 56% | |
| 169 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 170 | 1.2% | 45% | |
| 171 | 22% | 44% | |
| 172 | 4% | 22% | |
| 173 | 2% | 18% | |
| 174 | 3% | 15% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 12% | |
| 179 | 4% | 12% | |
| 180 | 2% | 7% | |
| 181 | 2% | 5% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 184 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 185 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 141 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 142 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 146 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 153 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 154 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 156 | 1.1% | 95% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 159 | 4% | 93% | |
| 160 | 4% | 89% | |
| 161 | 6% | 86% | |
| 162 | 6% | 79% | |
| 163 | 1.1% | 74% | |
| 164 | 4% | 73% | |
| 165 | 8% | 69% | |
| 166 | 4% | 60% | |
| 167 | 1.0% | 57% | |
| 168 | 6% | 56% | |
| 169 | 5% | 50% | Median |
| 170 | 1.2% | 45% | |
| 171 | 22% | 44% | |
| 172 | 4% | 22% | |
| 173 | 2% | 18% | |
| 174 | 3% | 15% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 13% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 177 | 0.1% | 12% | |
| 178 | 0.5% | 12% | |
| 179 | 4% | 12% | |
| 180 | 2% | 7% | |
| 181 | 2% | 5% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 183 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 184 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 185 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 193 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Estymator
- Commissioner(s): DoRzeczy.pl
- Fieldwork period: 23–24 January 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1002
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.42%