Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Onet, 25–26 January 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 36.2% | 34.4–38.1% | 33.8–38.6% | 33.4–39.1% | 32.5–40.0% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 29.6% | 27.9–31.5% | 27.4–32.0% | 27.0–32.4% | 26.2–33.3% |
| Wiosna | 0.0% | 6.4% | 5.5–7.4% | 5.3–7.7% | 5.1–8.0% | 4.7–8.5% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.0–7.4% | 4.8–7.7% | 4.5–8.2% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.4–5.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.1–5.4% | 2.8–5.9% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 3.8% | 3.2–4.7% | 3.0–4.9% | 2.8–5.1% | 2.5–5.6% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–1.9% |
| .Nowoczesna | 7.6% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 234 | 222–255 | 218–256 | 214–256 | 207–262 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 186 | 171–195 | 162–197 | 162–201 | 156–211 |
| Wiosna | 0 | 24 | 0–36 | 0–38 | 0–40 | 0–40 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 15 | 0–30 | 0–31 | 0–33 | 0–36 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0–17 | 0–19 | 0–23 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0–10 | 0–10 | 0–10 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| .Nowoczesna | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 201 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 203 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 204 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 212 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 214 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 215 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 216 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 217 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 218 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 219 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 220 | 3% | 95% | |
| 221 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 222 | 3% | 91% | |
| 223 | 6% | 88% | |
| 224 | 4% | 83% | |
| 225 | 2% | 79% | |
| 226 | 1.5% | 77% | |
| 227 | 8% | 75% | |
| 228 | 1.0% | 68% | |
| 229 | 5% | 67% | |
| 230 | 3% | 62% | |
| 231 | 0.6% | 59% | Majority |
| 232 | 4% | 58% | |
| 233 | 2% | 54% | |
| 234 | 2% | 52% | Median |
| 235 | 0.1% | 49% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0.4% | 49% | |
| 237 | 0.2% | 49% | |
| 238 | 5% | 49% | |
| 239 | 3% | 44% | |
| 240 | 1.3% | 41% | |
| 241 | 0.9% | 39% | |
| 242 | 12% | 39% | |
| 243 | 0.7% | 27% | |
| 244 | 4% | 26% | |
| 245 | 0.3% | 22% | |
| 246 | 2% | 22% | |
| 247 | 7% | 20% | |
| 248 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 249 | 0.7% | 13% | |
| 250 | 0.4% | 12% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 253 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 254 | 0% | 11% | |
| 255 | 5% | 11% | |
| 256 | 5% | 6% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 262 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 263 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 265 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 162 | 4% | 98% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 165 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 170 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 171 | 3% | 91% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 88% | |
| 173 | 0.6% | 87% | |
| 174 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 175 | 2% | 86% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 177 | 6% | 84% | |
| 178 | 3% | 77% | |
| 179 | 2% | 75% | |
| 180 | 2% | 73% | |
| 181 | 10% | 71% | |
| 182 | 0.8% | 61% | |
| 183 | 1.0% | 60% | |
| 184 | 4% | 59% | |
| 185 | 1.4% | 56% | |
| 186 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 187 | 11% | 45% | |
| 188 | 7% | 34% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 27% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 27% | |
| 191 | 2% | 27% | |
| 192 | 6% | 24% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 19% | |
| 194 | 7% | 18% | |
| 195 | 1.1% | 11% | |
| 196 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 197 | 5% | 9% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 199 | 0% | 4% | |
| 200 | 0% | 4% | |
| 201 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 202 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 205 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 211 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% |
Wiosna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wiosna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 89% | |
| 2 | 0% | 89% | |
| 3 | 0% | 89% | |
| 4 | 0% | 89% | |
| 5 | 0% | 89% | |
| 6 | 0% | 89% | |
| 7 | 0% | 89% | |
| 8 | 0% | 89% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 89% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 88% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 88% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 88% | |
| 13 | 2% | 87% | |
| 14 | 2% | 85% | |
| 15 | 2% | 83% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 81% | |
| 17 | 5% | 80% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 76% | |
| 19 | 16% | 75% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 59% | |
| 21 | 3% | 59% | |
| 22 | 0.5% | 57% | |
| 23 | 1.3% | 56% | |
| 24 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 25 | 7% | 44% | |
| 26 | 1.2% | 37% | |
| 27 | 10% | 36% | |
| 28 | 2% | 26% | |
| 29 | 6% | 24% | |
| 30 | 2% | 18% | |
| 31 | 2% | 16% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 13% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 12% | |
| 35 | 2% | 12% | |
| 36 | 2% | 10% | |
| 37 | 3% | 8% | |
| 38 | 2% | 5% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 40 | 3% | 4% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 85% | |
| 2 | 0% | 85% | |
| 3 | 0% | 85% | |
| 4 | 0% | 85% | |
| 5 | 0% | 85% | |
| 6 | 0% | 85% | |
| 7 | 0% | 85% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 85% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 10 | 5% | 85% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 79% | |
| 12 | 12% | 79% | |
| 13 | 8% | 66% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 59% | |
| 15 | 8% | 58% | Median |
| 16 | 7% | 50% | |
| 17 | 5% | 42% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 37% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 37% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 35% | |
| 21 | 2% | 35% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 33% | |
| 23 | 2% | 32% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 30% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 29% | |
| 26 | 3% | 29% | |
| 27 | 4% | 26% | |
| 28 | 8% | 22% | |
| 29 | 2% | 14% | |
| 30 | 3% | 11% | |
| 31 | 5% | 8% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 35 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 6% | |
| 13 | 0% | 6% | |
| 14 | 0% | 6% | |
| 15 | 0% | 6% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 6% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0.7% | 5% | |
| 18 | 2% | 5% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 21 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0% | 6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 6% | |
| 10 | 5% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 234 | 59% | 222–255 | 218–256 | 214–256 | 207–262 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Lewica Razem – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 201 | 0.4% | 187–216 | 186–221 | 182–224 | 177–230 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 201 | 0.4% | 187–216 | 186–221 | 182–224 | 177–230 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 199 | 0.1% | 186–214 | 186–219 | 179–223 | 175–226 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 187 | 0% | 171–197 | 162–201 | 162–202 | 157–211 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 186 | 0% | 171–195 | 162–197 | 162–201 | 156–211 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 186 | 0% | 171–195 | 162–197 | 162–201 | 156–211 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 201 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 202 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 203 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 204 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 207 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 208 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 211 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 212 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 213 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 214 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 215 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 216 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 217 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 218 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 219 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 220 | 3% | 95% | |
| 221 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 222 | 3% | 91% | |
| 223 | 6% | 88% | |
| 224 | 4% | 83% | |
| 225 | 2% | 79% | |
| 226 | 1.5% | 77% | |
| 227 | 8% | 75% | |
| 228 | 1.0% | 68% | |
| 229 | 5% | 67% | |
| 230 | 3% | 62% | |
| 231 | 0.6% | 59% | Majority |
| 232 | 4% | 58% | |
| 233 | 2% | 54% | |
| 234 | 2% | 52% | Median |
| 235 | 0.1% | 49% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0.4% | 49% | |
| 237 | 0.2% | 49% | |
| 238 | 5% | 49% | |
| 239 | 3% | 44% | |
| 240 | 1.3% | 41% | |
| 241 | 0.9% | 39% | |
| 242 | 12% | 39% | |
| 243 | 0.7% | 27% | |
| 244 | 4% | 26% | |
| 245 | 0.3% | 22% | |
| 246 | 2% | 22% | |
| 247 | 7% | 20% | |
| 248 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 249 | 0.7% | 13% | |
| 250 | 0.4% | 12% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 252 | 0.1% | 11% | |
| 253 | 0.4% | 11% | |
| 254 | 0% | 11% | |
| 255 | 5% | 11% | |
| 256 | 5% | 6% | |
| 257 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 262 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 263 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 264 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 265 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Lewica Razem – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 175 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 176 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 177 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 181 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 182 | 0% | 98% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 186 | 7% | 97% | |
| 187 | 5% | 90% | |
| 188 | 0.4% | 85% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 190 | 4% | 85% | |
| 191 | 3% | 80% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 78% | |
| 193 | 1.0% | 77% | |
| 194 | 5% | 76% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 71% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 71% | |
| 197 | 4% | 71% | |
| 198 | 2% | 67% | |
| 199 | 14% | 65% | |
| 200 | 0.5% | 51% | |
| 201 | 1.2% | 50% | Median |
| 202 | 0.6% | 49% | |
| 203 | 0.8% | 48% | |
| 204 | 2% | 48% | |
| 205 | 6% | 46% | |
| 206 | 2% | 40% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 38% | |
| 208 | 6% | 37% | |
| 209 | 8% | 31% | |
| 210 | 1.3% | 23% | |
| 211 | 1.2% | 22% | |
| 212 | 7% | 21% | |
| 213 | 0.8% | 14% | |
| 214 | 3% | 13% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 216 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 217 | 1.5% | 9% | |
| 218 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 219 | 2% | 7% | |
| 220 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 221 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 222 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 223 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 224 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 225 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 226 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 227 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 232 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 233 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 240 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 170 | 0% | 100% | |
| 171 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 175 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 176 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 177 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 178 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 181 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 182 | 0% | 98% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 186 | 7% | 97% | |
| 187 | 5% | 90% | |
| 188 | 0.4% | 85% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 85% | |
| 190 | 4% | 85% | |
| 191 | 3% | 80% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 78% | |
| 193 | 1.0% | 77% | |
| 194 | 5% | 76% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 71% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 71% | |
| 197 | 4% | 71% | |
| 198 | 2% | 67% | |
| 199 | 14% | 65% | |
| 200 | 0.5% | 51% | |
| 201 | 1.2% | 50% | Median |
| 202 | 0.6% | 49% | |
| 203 | 0.8% | 48% | |
| 204 | 2% | 48% | |
| 205 | 6% | 46% | |
| 206 | 2% | 40% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 38% | |
| 208 | 6% | 37% | |
| 209 | 8% | 31% | |
| 210 | 1.3% | 23% | |
| 211 | 1.2% | 22% | |
| 212 | 7% | 21% | |
| 213 | 0.8% | 14% | |
| 214 | 3% | 13% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 216 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 217 | 1.5% | 9% | |
| 218 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 219 | 2% | 7% | |
| 220 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 221 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 222 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 223 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 224 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 225 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 226 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 227 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 228 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 232 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 233 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 238 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 240 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0% | 100% | |
| 168 | 0% | 100% | |
| 169 | 0% | 100% | |
| 170 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 175 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 176 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 177 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 179 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 181 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 185 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 186 | 7% | 96% | |
| 187 | 5% | 89% | |
| 188 | 0.9% | 84% | |
| 189 | 0.8% | 83% | |
| 190 | 4% | 82% | |
| 191 | 3% | 78% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 75% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 75% | |
| 194 | 5% | 75% | |
| 195 | 2% | 70% | |
| 196 | 0.5% | 68% | |
| 197 | 4% | 67% | |
| 198 | 2% | 63% | |
| 199 | 14% | 61% | |
| 200 | 0.7% | 47% | |
| 201 | 1.1% | 46% | Median |
| 202 | 0.6% | 45% | |
| 203 | 0.8% | 44% | |
| 204 | 2% | 44% | |
| 205 | 6% | 42% | |
| 206 | 2% | 36% | |
| 207 | 0.3% | 34% | |
| 208 | 6% | 34% | |
| 209 | 8% | 28% | |
| 210 | 1.3% | 20% | |
| 211 | 1.2% | 19% | |
| 212 | 7% | 18% | |
| 213 | 0.6% | 11% | |
| 214 | 3% | 10% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 8% | |
| 216 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 217 | 1.2% | 7% | |
| 218 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 219 | 1.2% | 6% | |
| 220 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 221 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 222 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 223 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 224 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 225 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 226 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 227 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 232 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 236 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 160 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 161 | 0% | 98% | |
| 162 | 4% | 98% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 165 | 0.8% | 94% | |
| 166 | 0.2% | 93% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 93% | |
| 169 | 0.6% | 92% | |
| 170 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 171 | 3% | 91% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 89% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 88% | |
| 174 | 0.7% | 88% | |
| 175 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 87% | |
| 177 | 6% | 86% | |
| 178 | 3% | 80% | |
| 179 | 2% | 78% | |
| 180 | 0.8% | 76% | |
| 181 | 10% | 75% | |
| 182 | 0.9% | 66% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.9% | 65% | |
| 184 | 4% | 64% | |
| 185 | 1.5% | 60% | |
| 186 | 9% | 59% | Median |
| 187 | 11% | 50% | |
| 188 | 7% | 39% | |
| 189 | 0.4% | 32% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 31% | |
| 191 | 2% | 31% | |
| 192 | 6% | 29% | |
| 193 | 2% | 23% | |
| 194 | 8% | 21% | |
| 195 | 1.1% | 14% | |
| 196 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 197 | 5% | 12% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 200 | 0% | 6% | |
| 201 | 3% | 6% | |
| 202 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 203 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 205 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 206 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 207 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 208 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 211 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 221 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 222 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 223 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 225 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 151 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 162 | 4% | 98% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 165 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 93% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 170 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 171 | 3% | 91% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 88% | |
| 173 | 0.6% | 87% | |
| 174 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 175 | 2% | 86% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 177 | 6% | 84% | |
| 178 | 3% | 77% | |
| 179 | 2% | 75% | |
| 180 | 2% | 73% | |
| 181 | 10% | 71% | |
| 182 | 0.8% | 61% | |
| 183 | 1.0% | 60% | |
| 184 | 4% | 59% | |
| 185 | 1.4% | 56% | |
| 186 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 187 | 11% | 45% | |
| 188 | 7% | 34% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 27% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 27% | |
| 191 | 2% | 27% | |
| 192 | 6% | 24% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 19% | |
| 194 | 7% | 18% | |
| 195 | 1.1% | 11% | |
| 196 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 197 | 5% | 9% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 199 | 0% | 4% | |
| 200 | 0% | 4% | |
| 201 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 202 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 205 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 211 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 157 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 158 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 162 | 4% | 98% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 165 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 166 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 167 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 168 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 169 | 0.5% | 91% | |
| 170 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 171 | 3% | 91% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 88% | |
| 173 | 0.6% | 87% | |
| 174 | 1.0% | 87% | |
| 175 | 2% | 86% | |
| 176 | 0.4% | 84% | |
| 177 | 6% | 84% | |
| 178 | 3% | 77% | |
| 179 | 2% | 75% | |
| 180 | 2% | 73% | |
| 181 | 10% | 71% | |
| 182 | 0.8% | 61% | |
| 183 | 1.0% | 60% | |
| 184 | 4% | 59% | |
| 185 | 1.4% | 56% | |
| 186 | 9% | 54% | Median |
| 187 | 11% | 45% | |
| 188 | 7% | 34% | |
| 189 | 0.3% | 27% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 27% | |
| 191 | 2% | 27% | |
| 192 | 6% | 24% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 19% | |
| 194 | 7% | 18% | |
| 195 | 1.1% | 11% | |
| 196 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 197 | 5% | 9% | |
| 198 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 199 | 0% | 4% | |
| 200 | 0% | 4% | |
| 201 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 202 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 203 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 204 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 205 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 211 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 219 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 220 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: IBRiS
- Commissioner(s): Onet
- Fieldwork period: 25–26 January 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 0.96%