Opinion Poll by Kantar Millward Brown, 4–5 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość 37.6% 29.0% 27.2–30.9% 26.7–31.4% 26.3–31.9% 25.4–32.8%
Platforma Obywatelska 24.1% 20.0% 18.5–21.7% 18.0–22.2% 17.6–22.6% 16.9–23.4%
Wiosna 0.0% 14.0% 12.7–15.5% 12.3–16.0% 12.0–16.3% 11.4–17.1%
Kukiz’15 8.8% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej 7.6% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.6% 4.3–8.2%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe 5.1% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
KORWiN 4.8% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Lewica Razem 3.6% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość 235 186 177–196 174–204 170–213 160–221
Platforma Obywatelska 138 124 108–134 105–135 102–137 97–144
Wiosna 0 79 72–84 72–91 69–96 60–102
Kukiz’15 42 35 23–43 19–43 16–44 13–47
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej 0 22 16–31 12–33 0–33 0–36
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe 16 0 0–24 0–24 0–24 0–27
KORWiN 0 9 0–17 0–19 0–24 0–28
Lewica Razem 0 0 0 0 0 0

Prawo i Sprawiedliwość

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0.3% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.6%  
160 0.2% 99.5%  
161 0% 99.3%  
162 0% 99.3%  
163 0.2% 99.3%  
164 0.3% 99.1%  
165 0.2% 98.8%  
166 0.1% 98.6%  
167 0.2% 98%  
168 0.2% 98%  
169 0.1% 98%  
170 0.4% 98%  
171 0.2% 97%  
172 0.2% 97%  
173 2% 97%  
174 2% 95%  
175 0.2% 94%  
176 2% 93%  
177 3% 91%  
178 0.6% 88%  
179 0.2% 88%  
180 5% 87%  
181 14% 83%  
182 0.4% 69%  
183 2% 69%  
184 0.6% 67%  
185 10% 66%  
186 22% 56% Median
187 0.7% 34%  
188 1.2% 33%  
189 2% 32%  
190 2% 30%  
191 0.2% 29%  
192 1.2% 28%  
193 4% 27%  
194 0.2% 23%  
195 12% 23%  
196 1.4% 11%  
197 1.0% 9%  
198 0.6% 8%  
199 0.3% 8%  
200 1.4% 8%  
201 0.4% 6%  
202 0.2% 6%  
203 0.1% 6%  
204 1.4% 5%  
205 0.1% 4%  
206 0.3% 4%  
207 0% 4%  
208 0.1% 4%  
209 0.6% 4%  
210 0.2% 3%  
211 0% 3%  
212 0.1% 3%  
213 1.1% 3%  
214 0.4% 2%  
215 0% 1.2%  
216 0% 1.2%  
217 0.4% 1.2%  
218 0% 0.8%  
219 0% 0.8%  
220 0.1% 0.8%  
221 0.5% 0.7%  
222 0% 0.2%  
223 0% 0.2%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0.1% 0.1%  
226 0.1% 0.1%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0% Majority
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0% Last Result

Platforma Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.3% 99.7%  
98 0% 99.5%  
99 0.1% 99.5%  
100 1.1% 99.3%  
101 0.2% 98%  
102 1.1% 98%  
103 0.2% 97%  
104 0.9% 97%  
105 3% 96%  
106 0.5% 93%  
107 0.8% 93%  
108 7% 92%  
109 3% 85%  
110 0.1% 82%  
111 0.2% 82%  
112 0.2% 82%  
113 0.8% 82%  
114 0.3% 81%  
115 2% 81%  
116 2% 78%  
117 5% 77%  
118 2% 72%  
119 0.8% 70%  
120 2% 69%  
121 0.1% 66%  
122 1.2% 66%  
123 13% 65%  
124 2% 52% Median
125 1.3% 50%  
126 3% 49%  
127 0.6% 46%  
128 2% 45%  
129 7% 44%  
130 21% 36%  
131 1.1% 15%  
132 1.2% 14%  
133 2% 13%  
134 1.0% 10%  
135 6% 9%  
136 0.2% 3%  
137 1.2% 3%  
138 0.3% 2% Last Result
139 0.3% 2%  
140 0.2% 1.4%  
141 0.2% 1.3%  
142 0.1% 1.0%  
143 0.3% 1.0%  
144 0.3% 0.7%  
145 0% 0.4%  
146 0% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Wiosna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wiosna page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100%  
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0% 99.8%  
55 0% 99.8%  
56 0% 99.7%  
57 0.1% 99.7%  
58 0.1% 99.7%  
59 0.1% 99.6%  
60 0.1% 99.5%  
61 0.1% 99.4%  
62 0.1% 99.3%  
63 0.2% 99.3%  
64 0% 99.1%  
65 0.1% 99.1%  
66 0.1% 99.1%  
67 0.1% 99.0%  
68 0.9% 98.9%  
69 0.5% 98%  
70 0.6% 97%  
71 2% 97%  
72 5% 95%  
73 4% 90%  
74 11% 86%  
75 3% 76%  
76 3% 73%  
77 6% 70%  
78 12% 64%  
79 2% 51% Median
80 14% 49%  
81 18% 35%  
82 5% 18%  
83 1.4% 13%  
84 2% 11%  
85 0.2% 10%  
86 1.5% 9%  
87 0.9% 8%  
88 0.1% 7%  
89 0.8% 7%  
90 0.8% 6%  
91 1.3% 5%  
92 0.3% 4%  
93 0.3% 4%  
94 0.3% 3%  
95 0.1% 3%  
96 1.5% 3%  
97 0% 1.5%  
98 0.3% 1.4%  
99 0.2% 1.1%  
100 0% 0.9%  
101 0.4% 0.9%  
102 0.4% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Kukiz’15

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0.3% 99.9%  
12 0.1% 99.6%  
13 1.0% 99.5%  
14 0.1% 98.5%  
15 0.2% 98%  
16 0.9% 98%  
17 0.2% 97%  
18 2% 97%  
19 0.5% 95%  
20 1.1% 95%  
21 0.4% 94%  
22 0.8% 93%  
23 4% 93%  
24 0.5% 88%  
25 4% 88%  
26 1.4% 84%  
27 0.4% 83%  
28 7% 82%  
29 2% 75%  
30 4% 73%  
31 1.1% 69%  
32 2% 68%  
33 7% 66%  
34 7% 59%  
35 21% 53% Median
36 7% 32%  
37 2% 25%  
38 2% 23%  
39 1.1% 21%  
40 0.9% 20%  
41 0.1% 19%  
42 1.4% 19% Last Result
43 15% 18%  
44 0.9% 3%  
45 1.2% 2%  
46 0.7% 1.2%  
47 0.2% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0% 95%  
7 0% 95%  
8 0% 95%  
9 0% 95%  
10 0% 95%  
11 0.3% 95%  
12 3% 95%  
13 0.7% 92%  
14 1.3% 91%  
15 0% 90%  
16 3% 90%  
17 9% 87%  
18 1.2% 79%  
19 4% 78%  
20 18% 73%  
21 3% 55%  
22 2% 52% Median
23 0.4% 50%  
24 7% 50%  
25 0.6% 42%  
26 1.1% 42%  
27 2% 41%  
28 23% 38%  
29 2% 16%  
30 2% 13%  
31 6% 11%  
32 0.5% 6%  
33 3% 5%  
34 1.2% 2%  
35 0.6% 1.2%  
36 0.2% 0.7%  
37 0.3% 0.5%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Median
1 0% 34%  
2 0% 34%  
3 0% 34%  
4 0% 34%  
5 0% 34%  
6 0% 34%  
7 0% 34%  
8 0% 34%  
9 0% 34%  
10 0% 34%  
11 0% 34%  
12 0% 34%  
13 0% 34%  
14 0% 34%  
15 0% 34%  
16 0% 34% Last Result
17 1.0% 34%  
18 3% 33%  
19 4% 30%  
20 3% 26%  
21 2% 24%  
22 6% 22%  
23 3% 16%  
24 11% 13%  
25 0.7% 2%  
26 0.9% 2%  
27 0.2% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

KORWiN

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100% Last Result
1 0% 56%  
2 0% 56%  
3 0% 56%  
4 0% 56%  
5 0% 56%  
6 0.1% 56%  
7 0% 56%  
8 5% 56%  
9 1.4% 50% Median
10 1.2% 49%  
11 1.3% 48%  
12 10% 47%  
13 14% 37%  
14 4% 23%  
15 2% 19%  
16 0.5% 17%  
17 8% 16%  
18 4% 9%  
19 0.4% 5%  
20 0.2% 5%  
21 1.2% 5%  
22 0.1% 3%  
23 0.3% 3%  
24 0.9% 3%  
25 0.6% 2%  
26 0.1% 1.4%  
27 0.2% 1.3%  
28 0.7% 1.2%  
29 0.1% 0.5%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0% 0.2%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość 235 186 0% 177–196 174–204 170–213 160–221
Platforma Obywatelska 138 124 0% 108–134 105–135 102–137 97–144

Prawo i Sprawiedliwość

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0.3% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.6%  
160 0.2% 99.5%  
161 0% 99.3%  
162 0% 99.3%  
163 0.2% 99.3%  
164 0.3% 99.1%  
165 0.2% 98.8%  
166 0.1% 98.6%  
167 0.2% 98%  
168 0.2% 98%  
169 0.1% 98%  
170 0.4% 98%  
171 0.2% 97%  
172 0.2% 97%  
173 2% 97%  
174 2% 95%  
175 0.2% 94%  
176 2% 93%  
177 3% 91%  
178 0.6% 88%  
179 0.2% 88%  
180 5% 87%  
181 14% 83%  
182 0.4% 69%  
183 2% 69%  
184 0.6% 67%  
185 10% 66%  
186 22% 56% Median
187 0.7% 34%  
188 1.2% 33%  
189 2% 32%  
190 2% 30%  
191 0.2% 29%  
192 1.2% 28%  
193 4% 27%  
194 0.2% 23%  
195 12% 23%  
196 1.4% 11%  
197 1.0% 9%  
198 0.6% 8%  
199 0.3% 8%  
200 1.4% 8%  
201 0.4% 6%  
202 0.2% 6%  
203 0.1% 6%  
204 1.4% 5%  
205 0.1% 4%  
206 0.3% 4%  
207 0% 4%  
208 0.1% 4%  
209 0.6% 4%  
210 0.2% 3%  
211 0% 3%  
212 0.1% 3%  
213 1.1% 3%  
214 0.4% 2%  
215 0% 1.2%  
216 0% 1.2%  
217 0.4% 1.2%  
218 0% 0.8%  
219 0% 0.8%  
220 0.1% 0.8%  
221 0.5% 0.7%  
222 0% 0.2%  
223 0% 0.2%  
224 0% 0.1%  
225 0.1% 0.1%  
226 0.1% 0.1%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0% Majority
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0%  
234 0% 0%  
235 0% 0% Last Result

Platforma Obywatelska

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.3% 99.7%  
98 0% 99.5%  
99 0.1% 99.5%  
100 1.1% 99.3%  
101 0.2% 98%  
102 1.1% 98%  
103 0.2% 97%  
104 0.9% 97%  
105 3% 96%  
106 0.5% 93%  
107 0.8% 93%  
108 7% 92%  
109 3% 85%  
110 0.1% 82%  
111 0.2% 82%  
112 0.2% 82%  
113 0.8% 82%  
114 0.3% 81%  
115 2% 81%  
116 2% 78%  
117 5% 77%  
118 2% 72%  
119 0.8% 70%  
120 2% 69%  
121 0.1% 66%  
122 1.2% 66%  
123 13% 65%  
124 2% 52% Median
125 1.3% 50%  
126 3% 49%  
127 0.6% 46%  
128 2% 45%  
129 7% 44%  
130 21% 36%  
131 1.1% 15%  
132 1.2% 14%  
133 2% 13%  
134 1.0% 10%  
135 6% 9%  
136 0.2% 3%  
137 1.2% 3%  
138 0.3% 2% Last Result
139 0.3% 2%  
140 0.2% 1.4%  
141 0.2% 1.3%  
142 0.1% 1.0%  
143 0.3% 1.0%  
144 0.3% 0.7%  
145 0% 0.4%  
146 0% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations