Opinion Poll by Instytut Badań Spraw Narodowościowych for Radio ZET, 31 January–6 February 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 35.1% | 33.2–37.1% | 32.7–37.6% | 32.2–38.1% | 31.3–39.1% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 32.2% | 30.3–34.1% | 29.8–34.7% | 29.4–35.2% | 28.5–36.1% |
| Wiosna | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.2% | 9.6–14.9% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 5.8% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–8.0% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.1–5.0% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–2.9% |
| .Nowoczesna | 7.6% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 215 | 200–222 | 197–222 | 189–224 | 184–229 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 178 | 174–188 | 167–190 | 164–195 | 161–203 |
| Wiosna | 0 | 51 | 49–67 | 48–70 | 46–70 | 42–75 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 9 | 0–22 | 0–25 | 0–28 | 0–35 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–9 | 0–13 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| .Nowoczesna | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 176 | 0% | 100% | |
| 177 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 178 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 185 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 189 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 194 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 197 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 199 | 2% | 94% | |
| 200 | 5% | 91% | |
| 201 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 202 | 7% | 86% | |
| 203 | 0.9% | 79% | |
| 204 | 0.8% | 78% | |
| 205 | 3% | 77% | |
| 206 | 2% | 74% | |
| 207 | 0.6% | 72% | |
| 208 | 0.7% | 71% | |
| 209 | 6% | 71% | |
| 210 | 0.7% | 65% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 64% | |
| 212 | 6% | 64% | |
| 213 | 4% | 57% | |
| 214 | 2% | 53% | |
| 215 | 15% | 52% | Median |
| 216 | 0.3% | 37% | |
| 217 | 1.1% | 36% | |
| 218 | 0.4% | 35% | |
| 219 | 3% | 35% | |
| 220 | 0.6% | 32% | |
| 221 | 6% | 32% | |
| 222 | 20% | 25% | |
| 223 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 224 | 2% | 4% | |
| 225 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 226 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 229 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 239 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 240 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 161 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 164 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 167 | 2% | 96% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 170 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 171 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 172 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 173 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 174 | 7% | 90% | |
| 175 | 1.5% | 83% | |
| 176 | 3% | 82% | |
| 177 | 8% | 78% | |
| 178 | 22% | 71% | Median |
| 179 | 0.8% | 49% | |
| 180 | 6% | 49% | |
| 181 | 5% | 43% | |
| 182 | 2% | 38% | |
| 183 | 0.4% | 36% | |
| 184 | 1.0% | 35% | |
| 185 | 7% | 34% | |
| 186 | 10% | 27% | |
| 187 | 1.0% | 17% | |
| 188 | 8% | 16% | |
| 189 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 190 | 2% | 7% | |
| 191 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 192 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 194 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 200 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% |
Wiosna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wiosna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 48 | 5% | 97% | |
| 49 | 2% | 91% | |
| 50 | 9% | 89% | |
| 51 | 31% | 81% | Median |
| 52 | 3% | 49% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 46% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 45% | |
| 55 | 7% | 45% | |
| 56 | 3% | 38% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 35% | |
| 58 | 6% | 34% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 28% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 28% | |
| 61 | 2% | 28% | |
| 62 | 7% | 26% | |
| 63 | 2% | 19% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 17% | |
| 65 | 2% | 16% | |
| 66 | 2% | 14% | |
| 67 | 3% | 12% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 69 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 70 | 6% | 8% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 73 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 81% | |
| 2 | 0% | 81% | |
| 3 | 0% | 81% | |
| 4 | 0% | 81% | |
| 5 | 0% | 81% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 81% | |
| 7 | 2% | 81% | |
| 8 | 15% | 79% | |
| 9 | 23% | 64% | Median |
| 10 | 3% | 41% | |
| 11 | 4% | 38% | |
| 12 | 2% | 34% | |
| 13 | 5% | 32% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 27% | |
| 15 | 2% | 27% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 25% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 25% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 24% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 24% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 24% | |
| 21 | 9% | 23% | |
| 22 | 7% | 15% | |
| 23 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 25 | 2% | 7% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 28 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 35 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 215 | 0.2% | 200–222 | 197–222 | 189–224 | 184–229 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna – Lewica Razem | 182 | 180 | 0% | 174–188 | 170–191 | 167–199 | 161–209 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 180 | 0% | 174–188 | 170–191 | 167–199 | 161–209 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 180 | 0% | 174–188 | 170–191 | 167–199 | 161–207 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 178 | 0% | 174–188 | 167–191 | 164–196 | 161–204 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 178 | 0% | 174–188 | 167–190 | 164–195 | 161–203 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 178 | 0% | 174–188 | 167–190 | 164–195 | 161–203 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 176 | 0% | 100% | |
| 177 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 178 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 179 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 180 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 181 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 184 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 185 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 187 | 0.4% | 98.6% | |
| 188 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 189 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 192 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 193 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 194 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 195 | 0.1% | 96% | |
| 196 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 197 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 198 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 199 | 2% | 94% | |
| 200 | 5% | 91% | |
| 201 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 202 | 7% | 86% | |
| 203 | 0.9% | 79% | |
| 204 | 0.8% | 78% | |
| 205 | 3% | 77% | |
| 206 | 2% | 74% | |
| 207 | 0.6% | 72% | |
| 208 | 0.7% | 71% | |
| 209 | 6% | 71% | |
| 210 | 0.7% | 65% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 64% | |
| 212 | 6% | 64% | |
| 213 | 4% | 57% | |
| 214 | 2% | 53% | |
| 215 | 15% | 52% | Median |
| 216 | 0.3% | 37% | |
| 217 | 1.1% | 36% | |
| 218 | 0.4% | 35% | |
| 219 | 3% | 35% | |
| 220 | 0.6% | 32% | |
| 221 | 6% | 32% | |
| 222 | 20% | 25% | |
| 223 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 224 | 2% | 4% | |
| 225 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 226 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 227 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 228 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 229 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 233 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 235 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 237 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 238 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 239 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 240 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna – Lewica Razem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 167 | 2% | 98% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 170 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 171 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 172 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 173 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 174 | 6% | 91% | |
| 175 | 1.0% | 84% | |
| 176 | 3% | 83% | |
| 177 | 7% | 80% | |
| 178 | 22% | 73% | Median |
| 179 | 0.6% | 51% | |
| 180 | 6% | 51% | |
| 181 | 5% | 45% | |
| 182 | 3% | 40% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.5% | 37% | |
| 184 | 1.2% | 36% | |
| 185 | 7% | 35% | |
| 186 | 11% | 28% | |
| 187 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 188 | 8% | 17% | |
| 189 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 190 | 2% | 8% | |
| 191 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 194 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 198 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 199 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 200 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 167 | 2% | 98% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 170 | 1.2% | 95% | |
| 171 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 172 | 1.2% | 93% | |
| 173 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 174 | 6% | 91% | |
| 175 | 1.0% | 84% | |
| 176 | 3% | 83% | |
| 177 | 7% | 80% | |
| 178 | 22% | 73% | Median |
| 179 | 0.6% | 51% | |
| 180 | 6% | 51% | |
| 181 | 5% | 45% | |
| 182 | 3% | 40% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.5% | 37% | |
| 184 | 1.2% | 36% | |
| 185 | 7% | 35% | |
| 186 | 11% | 28% | |
| 187 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 188 | 8% | 17% | |
| 189 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 190 | 2% | 8% | |
| 191 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 194 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 198 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 199 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 200 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 209 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 155 | 0% | 100% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 99.1% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 164 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 167 | 2% | 98% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 96% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 170 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 171 | 1.3% | 94% | |
| 172 | 1.2% | 92% | |
| 173 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 174 | 6% | 91% | |
| 175 | 1.0% | 84% | |
| 176 | 3% | 83% | |
| 177 | 7% | 80% | |
| 178 | 22% | 73% | Median |
| 179 | 0.6% | 51% | |
| 180 | 6% | 50% | |
| 181 | 5% | 44% | |
| 182 | 3% | 40% | |
| 183 | 0.4% | 37% | |
| 184 | 1.0% | 36% | |
| 185 | 7% | 35% | |
| 186 | 11% | 28% | |
| 187 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 188 | 8% | 16% | |
| 189 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 190 | 2% | 8% | |
| 191 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 194 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 198 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 199 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 200 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 1.5% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 207 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 215 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 161 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 164 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 167 | 2% | 96% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 170 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 171 | 1.0% | 93% | |
| 172 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 173 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 174 | 7% | 90% | |
| 175 | 1.5% | 84% | |
| 176 | 3% | 82% | |
| 177 | 8% | 79% | |
| 178 | 22% | 71% | Median |
| 179 | 0.8% | 50% | |
| 180 | 6% | 49% | |
| 181 | 5% | 43% | |
| 182 | 2% | 38% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.4% | 36% | |
| 184 | 1.2% | 35% | |
| 185 | 7% | 34% | |
| 186 | 10% | 27% | |
| 187 | 1.0% | 17% | |
| 188 | 8% | 16% | |
| 189 | 1.0% | 9% | |
| 190 | 2% | 7% | |
| 191 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 192 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 194 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 200 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 214 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 161 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 164 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 97% | Last Result |
| 167 | 2% | 96% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 170 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 171 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 172 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 173 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 174 | 7% | 90% | |
| 175 | 1.5% | 83% | |
| 176 | 3% | 82% | |
| 177 | 8% | 78% | |
| 178 | 22% | 71% | Median |
| 179 | 0.8% | 49% | |
| 180 | 6% | 49% | |
| 181 | 5% | 43% | |
| 182 | 2% | 38% | |
| 183 | 0.4% | 36% | |
| 184 | 1.0% | 35% | |
| 185 | 7% | 34% | |
| 186 | 10% | 27% | |
| 187 | 1.0% | 17% | |
| 188 | 8% | 16% | |
| 189 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 190 | 2% | 7% | |
| 191 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 192 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 194 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 200 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 138 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0% | 100% | |
| 140 | 0% | 100% | |
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 100% | |
| 143 | 0% | 100% | |
| 144 | 0% | 100% | |
| 145 | 0% | 100% | |
| 146 | 0% | 100% | |
| 147 | 0% | 100% | |
| 148 | 0% | 100% | |
| 149 | 0% | 100% | |
| 150 | 0% | 100% | |
| 151 | 0% | 100% | |
| 152 | 0% | 100% | |
| 153 | 0% | 100% | |
| 154 | 0% | 100% | |
| 155 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 156 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 159 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 161 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 162 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 164 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 165 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 167 | 2% | 96% | |
| 168 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 170 | 1.2% | 94% | |
| 171 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 172 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 173 | 0.7% | 91% | |
| 174 | 7% | 90% | |
| 175 | 1.5% | 83% | |
| 176 | 3% | 82% | |
| 177 | 8% | 78% | |
| 178 | 22% | 71% | Median |
| 179 | 0.8% | 49% | |
| 180 | 6% | 49% | |
| 181 | 5% | 43% | |
| 182 | 2% | 38% | |
| 183 | 0.4% | 36% | |
| 184 | 1.0% | 35% | |
| 185 | 7% | 34% | |
| 186 | 10% | 27% | |
| 187 | 1.0% | 17% | |
| 188 | 8% | 16% | |
| 189 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 190 | 2% | 7% | |
| 191 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 192 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 193 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 194 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 196 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 197 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.3% | 1.5% | |
| 200 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 204 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 209 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 210 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 211 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 212 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Instytut Badań Spraw Narodowościowych
- Commissioner(s): Radio ZET
- Fieldwork period: 31 January–6 February 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.63%