Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Rzeczpospolita, 7–8 February 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 37.1% | 35.3–39.0% | 34.7–39.5% | 34.3–40.0% | 33.4–40.9% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 21.8% | 20.3–23.5% | 19.8–24.0% | 19.5–24.4% | 18.7–25.2% |
| Wiosna | 0.0% | 16.2% | 14.8–17.7% | 14.4–18.1% | 14.1–18.5% | 13.5–19.2% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 5.2% | 4.4–6.1% | 4.2–6.4% | 4.0–6.7% | 3.7–7.1% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.1–5.8% | 3.9–6.0% | 3.7–6.3% | 3.4–6.7% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 4.7% | 4.0–5.7% | 3.8–5.9% | 3.6–6.2% | 3.3–6.6% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.7% |
| .Nowoczesna | 7.6% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 226 | 216–236 | 212–242 | 207–247 | 201–254 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 128 | 115–143 | 109–143 | 107–144 | 101–148 |
| Wiosna | 0 | 86 | 77–98 | 76–103 | 75–106 | 71–107 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 0 | 0–20 | 0–27 | 0–28 | 0–28 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 0 | 0–19 | 0–20 | 0–22 | 0–25 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 0 | 0–11 | 0–13 | 0–16 | 0–21 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| .Nowoczesna | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 199 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 203 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 204 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 205 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 207 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 208 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 209 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 210 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 212 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 213 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 214 | 3% | 94% | |
| 215 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 216 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 217 | 3% | 90% | |
| 218 | 2% | 87% | |
| 219 | 8% | 85% | |
| 220 | 0.4% | 77% | |
| 221 | 3% | 77% | |
| 222 | 3% | 74% | |
| 223 | 2% | 71% | |
| 224 | 1.1% | 69% | |
| 225 | 10% | 68% | |
| 226 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 227 | 2% | 45% | |
| 228 | 6% | 43% | |
| 229 | 1.4% | 37% | |
| 230 | 8% | 36% | |
| 231 | 1.2% | 28% | Majority |
| 232 | 12% | 27% | |
| 233 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 234 | 2% | 14% | |
| 235 | 1.2% | 12% | Last Result |
| 236 | 2% | 11% | |
| 237 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 238 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 239 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 240 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 242 | 2% | 6% | |
| 243 | 0% | 4% | |
| 244 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 245 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 246 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 247 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 249 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 250 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 252 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 253 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 254 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 255 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 258 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 263 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 265 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 101 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 104 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 107 | 2% | 98% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 109 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 111 | 2% | 94% | |
| 112 | 1.1% | 93% | |
| 113 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 115 | 4% | 90% | |
| 116 | 1.5% | 86% | |
| 117 | 2% | 84% | |
| 118 | 1.4% | 83% | |
| 119 | 2% | 81% | |
| 120 | 1.2% | 79% | |
| 121 | 2% | 78% | |
| 122 | 0.6% | 76% | |
| 123 | 16% | 75% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 59% | |
| 125 | 3% | 58% | |
| 126 | 0.9% | 56% | |
| 127 | 2% | 55% | |
| 128 | 4% | 53% | Median |
| 129 | 15% | 48% | |
| 130 | 0.8% | 33% | |
| 131 | 6% | 32% | |
| 132 | 0.6% | 26% | |
| 133 | 1.2% | 25% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 24% | |
| 135 | 2% | 24% | |
| 136 | 4% | 22% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 138 | 2% | 18% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0.2% | 16% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 141 | 2% | 15% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 13% | |
| 143 | 8% | 12% | |
| 144 | 3% | 4% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Wiosna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wiosna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0% | 100% | |
| 69 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 75 | 2% | 98% | |
| 76 | 4% | 96% | |
| 77 | 3% | 93% | |
| 78 | 1.4% | 89% | |
| 79 | 2% | 88% | |
| 80 | 2% | 85% | |
| 81 | 5% | 83% | |
| 82 | 10% | 78% | |
| 83 | 2% | 69% | |
| 84 | 3% | 67% | |
| 85 | 2% | 64% | |
| 86 | 18% | 62% | Median |
| 87 | 1.2% | 44% | |
| 88 | 5% | 43% | |
| 89 | 5% | 38% | |
| 90 | 3% | 33% | |
| 91 | 4% | 30% | |
| 92 | 1.2% | 26% | |
| 93 | 0.7% | 25% | |
| 94 | 0.3% | 24% | |
| 95 | 0.3% | 24% | |
| 96 | 12% | 24% | |
| 97 | 2% | 12% | |
| 98 | 1.4% | 10% | |
| 99 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 100 | 3% | 8% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 102 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 103 | 2% | 5% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 107 | 2% | 2% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 109 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 111 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 114 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 59% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 41% | |
| 2 | 0% | 41% | |
| 3 | 0% | 41% | |
| 4 | 0% | 41% | |
| 5 | 0% | 41% | |
| 6 | 0% | 41% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 41% | |
| 8 | 2% | 40% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 38% | |
| 10 | 3% | 37% | |
| 11 | 3% | 35% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 31% | |
| 13 | 2% | 30% | |
| 14 | 3% | 29% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 26% | |
| 16 | 2% | 25% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 23% | |
| 18 | 6% | 23% | |
| 19 | 5% | 17% | |
| 20 | 3% | 12% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 8% | |
| 26 | 0.8% | 6% | |
| 27 | 2% | 6% | |
| 28 | 4% | 4% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 55% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 45% | |
| 2 | 0% | 45% | |
| 3 | 0% | 45% | |
| 4 | 0% | 45% | |
| 5 | 0% | 45% | |
| 6 | 0% | 45% | |
| 7 | 0% | 45% | |
| 8 | 0% | 45% | |
| 9 | 0% | 45% | |
| 10 | 0% | 45% | |
| 11 | 0% | 45% | |
| 12 | 0% | 45% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 45% | |
| 14 | 2% | 44% | |
| 15 | 6% | 42% | |
| 16 | 11% | 36% | Last Result |
| 17 | 2% | 25% | |
| 18 | 0.5% | 23% | |
| 19 | 16% | 23% | |
| 20 | 2% | 6% | |
| 21 | 2% | 5% | |
| 22 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 61% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 39% | |
| 2 | 0% | 39% | |
| 3 | 0% | 39% | |
| 4 | 0% | 39% | |
| 5 | 0% | 39% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 39% | |
| 7 | 1.5% | 39% | |
| 8 | 8% | 38% | |
| 9 | 14% | 29% | |
| 10 | 5% | 16% | |
| 11 | 3% | 10% | |
| 12 | 2% | 8% | |
| 13 | 2% | 6% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 226 | 28% | 216–236 | 212–242 | 207–247 | 201–254 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Lewica Razem – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 144 | 0% | 123–159 | 123–159 | 120–161 | 114–167 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 144 | 0% | 123–159 | 123–159 | 120–161 | 114–167 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 134 | 0% | 121–151 | 116–159 | 111–159 | 104–161 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 133 | 0% | 123–149 | 118–149 | 114–157 | 108–159 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 128 | 0% | 115–143 | 109–143 | 107–144 | 101–148 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 128 | 0% | 115–143 | 109–143 | 107–144 | 101–148 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 197 | 0% | 100% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 199 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 200 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 201 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 203 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 204 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 205 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 206 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 207 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 208 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 209 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 210 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 212 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 213 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 214 | 3% | 94% | |
| 215 | 0.4% | 92% | |
| 216 | 1.3% | 91% | |
| 217 | 3% | 90% | |
| 218 | 2% | 87% | |
| 219 | 8% | 85% | |
| 220 | 0.4% | 77% | |
| 221 | 3% | 77% | |
| 222 | 3% | 74% | |
| 223 | 2% | 71% | |
| 224 | 1.1% | 69% | |
| 225 | 10% | 68% | |
| 226 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 227 | 2% | 45% | |
| 228 | 6% | 43% | |
| 229 | 1.4% | 37% | |
| 230 | 8% | 36% | |
| 231 | 1.2% | 28% | Majority |
| 232 | 12% | 27% | |
| 233 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 234 | 2% | 14% | |
| 235 | 1.2% | 12% | Last Result |
| 236 | 2% | 11% | |
| 237 | 1.2% | 10% | |
| 238 | 0.9% | 8% | |
| 239 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 240 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 242 | 2% | 6% | |
| 243 | 0% | 4% | |
| 244 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 245 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 246 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 247 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 248 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 249 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 250 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 251 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 252 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 253 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 254 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 255 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 258 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 259 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 263 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 264 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 265 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Lewica Razem – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 120 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 123 | 12% | 96% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 84% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 127 | 3% | 84% | |
| 128 | 2% | 81% | Median |
| 129 | 0.3% | 79% | |
| 130 | 0.6% | 79% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 78% | |
| 132 | 1.3% | 77% | |
| 133 | 0.8% | 76% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 75% | |
| 135 | 0.7% | 75% | |
| 136 | 7% | 74% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 67% | |
| 138 | 2% | 66% | |
| 139 | 2% | 64% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 62% | |
| 141 | 2% | 61% | |
| 142 | 0.9% | 59% | |
| 143 | 2% | 58% | |
| 144 | 8% | 56% | |
| 145 | 2% | 49% | |
| 146 | 2% | 46% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 45% | |
| 148 | 14% | 44% | |
| 149 | 7% | 31% | |
| 150 | 1.1% | 24% | |
| 151 | 1.0% | 23% | |
| 152 | 1.0% | 22% | |
| 153 | 3% | 21% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 18% | |
| 155 | 0.9% | 17% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 16% | |
| 157 | 3% | 16% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 13% | |
| 159 | 9% | 12% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 162 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 108 | 0% | 100% | |
| 109 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 115 | 0% | 99.1% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 117 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 118 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 120 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 121 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 122 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 123 | 12% | 96% | |
| 124 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 125 | 0.5% | 84% | |
| 126 | 0.1% | 84% | |
| 127 | 3% | 84% | |
| 128 | 2% | 81% | Median |
| 129 | 0.3% | 79% | |
| 130 | 0.6% | 79% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 78% | |
| 132 | 1.3% | 77% | |
| 133 | 0.8% | 76% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 75% | |
| 135 | 0.7% | 75% | |
| 136 | 7% | 74% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 67% | |
| 138 | 2% | 66% | |
| 139 | 2% | 64% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 62% | |
| 141 | 2% | 61% | |
| 142 | 0.9% | 59% | |
| 143 | 2% | 58% | |
| 144 | 8% | 56% | |
| 145 | 2% | 49% | |
| 146 | 2% | 46% | |
| 147 | 0.4% | 45% | |
| 148 | 14% | 44% | |
| 149 | 7% | 31% | |
| 150 | 1.1% | 24% | |
| 151 | 1.0% | 23% | |
| 152 | 1.0% | 22% | |
| 153 | 3% | 21% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 18% | |
| 155 | 0.9% | 17% | |
| 156 | 0.3% | 16% | |
| 157 | 3% | 16% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 13% | |
| 159 | 9% | 12% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 161 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 162 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 164 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 1.1% | |
| 166 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 167 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 100 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 101 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 104 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 106 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 107 | 0% | 98.9% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 111 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 112 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 113 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 115 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 116 | 0.7% | 95% | |
| 117 | 2% | 95% | |
| 118 | 0.9% | 93% | |
| 119 | 0.7% | 92% | |
| 120 | 1.1% | 91% | |
| 121 | 3% | 90% | |
| 122 | 0.9% | 88% | |
| 123 | 14% | 87% | |
| 124 | 0.5% | 73% | |
| 125 | 3% | 73% | |
| 126 | 0.2% | 70% | |
| 127 | 4% | 70% | |
| 128 | 3% | 66% | Median |
| 129 | 2% | 63% | |
| 130 | 1.1% | 61% | |
| 131 | 7% | 60% | |
| 132 | 0.8% | 53% | |
| 133 | 1.3% | 52% | |
| 134 | 3% | 51% | |
| 135 | 2% | 48% | |
| 136 | 4% | 46% | |
| 137 | 0.7% | 42% | |
| 138 | 3% | 41% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 39% | |
| 140 | 0.5% | 38% | |
| 141 | 2% | 38% | |
| 142 | 2% | 36% | |
| 143 | 1.0% | 34% | |
| 144 | 7% | 33% | |
| 145 | 0.8% | 26% | |
| 146 | 1.4% | 25% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 24% | |
| 148 | 12% | 24% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 12% | |
| 150 | 0.7% | 12% | |
| 151 | 1.0% | 11% | |
| 152 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 153 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 154 | 0% | 9% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 157 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 158 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 159 | 8% | 9% | |
| 160 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 169 | 0% | 0% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 103 | 0% | 100% | |
| 104 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 106 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 107 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 108 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 109 | 0.3% | 99.3% | |
| 110 | 0.1% | 99.0% | |
| 111 | 0.1% | 98.9% | |
| 112 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 113 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 114 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 116 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 117 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 118 | 2% | 95% | |
| 119 | 0.1% | 94% | |
| 120 | 0.9% | 94% | |
| 121 | 0.4% | 93% | |
| 122 | 0.3% | 92% | |
| 123 | 14% | 92% | |
| 124 | 0.4% | 78% | |
| 125 | 0.7% | 78% | |
| 126 | 0.8% | 77% | |
| 127 | 2% | 76% | |
| 128 | 3% | 74% | Median |
| 129 | 16% | 71% | |
| 130 | 0.4% | 55% | |
| 131 | 2% | 55% | |
| 132 | 2% | 53% | |
| 133 | 1.1% | 51% | |
| 134 | 3% | 50% | |
| 135 | 0.7% | 47% | |
| 136 | 7% | 46% | |
| 137 | 1.3% | 39% | |
| 138 | 0.7% | 38% | |
| 139 | 2% | 37% | |
| 140 | 0.7% | 35% | |
| 141 | 2% | 34% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 32% | |
| 143 | 11% | 31% | |
| 144 | 4% | 21% | |
| 145 | 1.0% | 17% | |
| 146 | 2% | 16% | |
| 147 | 0.5% | 14% | |
| 148 | 2% | 14% | |
| 149 | 7% | 12% | |
| 150 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 151 | 0.6% | 5% | |
| 152 | 0% | 4% | |
| 153 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 154 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 156 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 157 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 158 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 159 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 101 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 104 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 107 | 2% | 98% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 109 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 111 | 2% | 94% | |
| 112 | 1.1% | 93% | |
| 113 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 115 | 4% | 90% | |
| 116 | 1.5% | 86% | |
| 117 | 2% | 84% | |
| 118 | 1.4% | 83% | |
| 119 | 2% | 81% | |
| 120 | 1.2% | 79% | |
| 121 | 2% | 78% | |
| 122 | 0.6% | 76% | |
| 123 | 16% | 75% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 59% | |
| 125 | 3% | 58% | |
| 126 | 0.9% | 56% | |
| 127 | 2% | 55% | |
| 128 | 4% | 53% | Median |
| 129 | 15% | 48% | |
| 130 | 0.8% | 33% | |
| 131 | 6% | 32% | |
| 132 | 0.6% | 26% | |
| 133 | 1.2% | 25% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 24% | |
| 135 | 2% | 24% | |
| 136 | 4% | 22% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 138 | 2% | 18% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 16% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 141 | 2% | 15% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 13% | |
| 143 | 8% | 12% | |
| 144 | 3% | 4% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 0% | 100% | |
| 95 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 96 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 98 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 99 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 100 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 101 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.5% | |
| 103 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 104 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 105 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 107 | 2% | 98% | |
| 108 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 109 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 94% | |
| 111 | 2% | 94% | |
| 112 | 1.1% | 93% | |
| 113 | 0.8% | 91% | |
| 114 | 0.4% | 91% | |
| 115 | 4% | 90% | |
| 116 | 1.5% | 86% | |
| 117 | 2% | 84% | |
| 118 | 1.4% | 83% | |
| 119 | 2% | 81% | |
| 120 | 1.2% | 79% | |
| 121 | 2% | 78% | |
| 122 | 0.6% | 76% | |
| 123 | 16% | 75% | |
| 124 | 0.7% | 59% | |
| 125 | 3% | 58% | |
| 126 | 0.9% | 56% | |
| 127 | 2% | 55% | |
| 128 | 4% | 53% | Median |
| 129 | 15% | 48% | |
| 130 | 0.8% | 33% | |
| 131 | 6% | 32% | |
| 132 | 0.6% | 26% | |
| 133 | 1.2% | 25% | |
| 134 | 0.2% | 24% | |
| 135 | 2% | 24% | |
| 136 | 4% | 22% | |
| 137 | 0.6% | 18% | |
| 138 | 2% | 18% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0.2% | 16% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 15% | |
| 141 | 2% | 15% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 13% | |
| 143 | 8% | 12% | |
| 144 | 3% | 4% | |
| 145 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 147 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: IBRiS
- Commissioner(s): Rzeczpospolita
- Fieldwork period: 7–8 February 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1100
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.10%