Opinion Poll by Estymator for DoRzeczy.pl, 20–21 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 42.6% | 40.6–44.6% | 40.0–45.2% | 39.6–45.7% | 38.6–46.6% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 26.7% | 24.9–28.5% | 24.4–29.0% | 24.0–29.5% | 23.2–30.4% |
| Wiosna | 0.0% | 6.4% | 5.5–7.5% | 5.2–7.8% | 5.0–8.1% | 4.6–8.6% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.1–7.7% | 4.9–8.0% | 4.5–8.5% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.2–6.6% | 4.1–6.8% | 3.7–7.4% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 4.8% | 4.0–5.8% | 3.8–6.0% | 3.6–6.3% | 3.3–6.8% |
| .Nowoczesna | 7.6% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.6% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 1.7% | 1.3–2.3% | 1.2–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 0.9–3.0% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.9% | 0.8–2.1% | 0.8–2.2% | 0.6–2.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 255 | 236–265 | 236–269 | 232–279 | 225–286 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 149 | 138–159 | 138–169 | 133–170 | 130–177 |
| Wiosna | 0 | 21 | 10–29 | 10–31 | 9–31 | 0–34 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 20 | 9–24 | 7–29 | 0–33 | 0–38 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 16 | 0–22 | 0–23 | 0–24 | 0–27 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 7 | 0–11 | 0–15 | 0–18 | 0–27 |
| .Nowoczesna | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 219 | 0% | 100% | |
| 220 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 221 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 225 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 227 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 228 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 229 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 98% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 234 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 96% | Last Result |
| 236 | 14% | 96% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 238 | 0.5% | 82% | |
| 239 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 240 | 3% | 82% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 79% | |
| 242 | 0.4% | 79% | |
| 243 | 2% | 79% | |
| 244 | 2% | 77% | |
| 245 | 6% | 75% | |
| 246 | 0.3% | 69% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 69% | |
| 248 | 4% | 69% | |
| 249 | 4% | 64% | |
| 250 | 1.2% | 60% | |
| 251 | 0.5% | 59% | |
| 252 | 0.2% | 58% | |
| 253 | 0.5% | 58% | |
| 254 | 0.6% | 58% | |
| 255 | 20% | 57% | Median |
| 256 | 0.3% | 36% | |
| 257 | 2% | 36% | |
| 258 | 0.4% | 35% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 34% | |
| 260 | 8% | 34% | |
| 261 | 0.4% | 26% | |
| 262 | 2% | 25% | |
| 263 | 7% | 23% | |
| 264 | 1.2% | 17% | |
| 265 | 6% | 15% | |
| 266 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 267 | 2% | 9% | |
| 268 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 269 | 2% | 6% | |
| 270 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 271 | 0% | 4% | |
| 272 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 273 | 0% | 3% | |
| 274 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 275 | 0% | 3% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 277 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 278 | 0% | 3% | |
| 279 | 2% | 3% | |
| 280 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 283 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 285 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 286 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 131 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 138 | 9% | 97% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 140 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 141 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 142 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 143 | 20% | 85% | |
| 144 | 1.3% | 65% | |
| 145 | 2% | 64% | |
| 146 | 6% | 62% | |
| 147 | 1.1% | 56% | |
| 148 | 2% | 55% | |
| 149 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 150 | 2% | 45% | |
| 151 | 1.1% | 43% | |
| 152 | 1.3% | 42% | |
| 153 | 2% | 40% | |
| 154 | 6% | 38% | |
| 155 | 1.1% | 33% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 31% | |
| 157 | 16% | 31% | |
| 158 | 3% | 16% | |
| 159 | 3% | 12% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 162 | 2% | 9% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 165 | 0% | 7% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 169 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 170 | 3% | 5% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 173 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 177 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% |
Wiosna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wiosna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0% | 98% | |
| 5 | 0% | 98% | |
| 6 | 0% | 98% | |
| 7 | 0% | 98% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 10 | 9% | 97% | |
| 11 | 2% | 88% | |
| 12 | 9% | 85% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 77% | |
| 14 | 2% | 76% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 74% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 73% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 73% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 72% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 72% | |
| 20 | 7% | 71% | |
| 21 | 23% | 65% | Median |
| 22 | 0.2% | 41% | |
| 23 | 4% | 41% | |
| 24 | 13% | 37% | |
| 25 | 1.1% | 24% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 23% | |
| 27 | 4% | 23% | |
| 28 | 9% | 19% | |
| 29 | 3% | 10% | |
| 30 | 2% | 8% | |
| 31 | 3% | 6% | |
| 32 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | |
| 3 | 0% | 95% | |
| 4 | 0% | 95% | |
| 5 | 0% | 95% | |
| 6 | 0% | 95% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 8 | 1.5% | 94% | |
| 9 | 21% | 93% | |
| 10 | 2% | 71% | |
| 11 | 6% | 70% | |
| 12 | 3% | 64% | |
| 13 | 1.1% | 61% | |
| 14 | 3% | 60% | |
| 15 | 1.0% | 57% | |
| 16 | 2% | 56% | |
| 17 | 0.4% | 54% | |
| 18 | 2% | 54% | |
| 19 | 0.8% | 51% | |
| 20 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 21 | 8% | 39% | |
| 22 | 7% | 31% | |
| 23 | 13% | 24% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 10% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 26 | 0.8% | 9% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 28 | 0% | 8% | |
| 29 | 4% | 8% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 32 | 0% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 77% | |
| 2 | 0% | 77% | |
| 3 | 0% | 77% | |
| 4 | 0% | 77% | |
| 5 | 0% | 77% | |
| 6 | 0% | 77% | |
| 7 | 0% | 77% | |
| 8 | 0% | 77% | |
| 9 | 0% | 77% | |
| 10 | 0% | 77% | |
| 11 | 0% | 77% | |
| 12 | 0% | 77% | |
| 13 | 13% | 77% | |
| 14 | 6% | 64% | |
| 15 | 3% | 58% | |
| 16 | 6% | 55% | Last Result, Median |
| 17 | 0.4% | 49% | |
| 18 | 0.9% | 48% | |
| 19 | 9% | 48% | |
| 20 | 2% | 39% | |
| 21 | 8% | 37% | |
| 22 | 21% | 29% | |
| 23 | 4% | 8% | |
| 24 | 3% | 4% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 44% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 56% | |
| 2 | 0% | 56% | |
| 3 | 0% | 56% | |
| 4 | 0% | 56% | |
| 5 | 0% | 56% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 56% | |
| 7 | 12% | 56% | Median |
| 8 | 0.2% | 44% | |
| 9 | 5% | 43% | |
| 10 | 21% | 39% | |
| 11 | 8% | 17% | |
| 12 | 1.3% | 9% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 8% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 15 | 2% | 6% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 255 | 98% | 236–265 | 236–269 | 232–279 | 225–286 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna – Lewica Razem | 182 | 172 | 0% | 154–180 | 154–189 | 148–192 | 131–200 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 172 | 0% | 154–180 | 154–189 | 148–192 | 131–200 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 165 | 0% | 154–175 | 148–185 | 142–189 | 131–192 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 153 | 0% | 146–169 | 138–172 | 138–177 | 131–181 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 149 | 0% | 138–159 | 138–169 | 133–170 | 130–177 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 149 | 0% | 138–159 | 138–169 | 133–170 | 130–177 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 219 | 0% | 100% | |
| 220 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 221 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 222 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 223 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 224 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 225 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 226 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 227 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 228 | 0.4% | 99.3% | |
| 229 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 230 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 231 | 0.1% | 98% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 234 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 96% | Last Result |
| 236 | 14% | 96% | |
| 237 | 0.1% | 83% | |
| 238 | 0.5% | 82% | |
| 239 | 0.2% | 82% | |
| 240 | 3% | 82% | |
| 241 | 0.1% | 79% | |
| 242 | 0.4% | 79% | |
| 243 | 2% | 79% | |
| 244 | 2% | 77% | |
| 245 | 6% | 75% | |
| 246 | 0.3% | 69% | |
| 247 | 0.2% | 69% | |
| 248 | 4% | 69% | |
| 249 | 4% | 64% | |
| 250 | 1.2% | 60% | |
| 251 | 0.5% | 59% | |
| 252 | 0.2% | 58% | |
| 253 | 0.5% | 58% | |
| 254 | 0.6% | 58% | |
| 255 | 20% | 57% | Median |
| 256 | 0.3% | 36% | |
| 257 | 2% | 36% | |
| 258 | 0.4% | 35% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 34% | |
| 260 | 8% | 34% | |
| 261 | 0.4% | 26% | |
| 262 | 2% | 25% | |
| 263 | 7% | 23% | |
| 264 | 1.2% | 17% | |
| 265 | 6% | 15% | |
| 266 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 267 | 2% | 9% | |
| 268 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 269 | 2% | 6% | |
| 270 | 0.3% | 4% | |
| 271 | 0% | 4% | |
| 272 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 273 | 0% | 3% | |
| 274 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 275 | 0% | 3% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 277 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 278 | 0% | 3% | |
| 279 | 2% | 3% | |
| 280 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 281 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 282 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 283 | 0% | 0.7% | |
| 284 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 285 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 286 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 287 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 288 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna – Lewica Razem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 133 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 135 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 136 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 139 | 0% | 98% | |
| 140 | 0% | 98% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 147 | 0% | 98% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 149 | 2% | 97% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 153 | 0% | 95% | |
| 154 | 6% | 95% | |
| 155 | 0.6% | 89% | |
| 156 | 0.8% | 89% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 158 | 1.4% | 88% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 160 | 1.3% | 86% | |
| 161 | 4% | 85% | |
| 162 | 2% | 81% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 79% | |
| 164 | 1.0% | 79% | |
| 165 | 10% | 78% | |
| 166 | 2% | 67% | |
| 167 | 2% | 65% | |
| 168 | 2% | 63% | |
| 169 | 1.2% | 61% | |
| 170 | 7% | 60% | |
| 171 | 1.4% | 52% | |
| 172 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 173 | 0.4% | 48% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 48% | |
| 175 | 19% | 47% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 28% | |
| 177 | 13% | 28% | |
| 178 | 2% | 15% | |
| 179 | 2% | 12% | |
| 180 | 1.1% | 11% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 9% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 186 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 188 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 189 | 3% | 6% | |
| 190 | 0% | 3% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 192 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 193 | 0% | 2% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 195 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 196 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 198 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 200 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 133 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 135 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 136 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 98.6% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 139 | 0% | 98% | |
| 140 | 0% | 98% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 147 | 0% | 98% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 149 | 2% | 97% | |
| 150 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 153 | 0% | 95% | |
| 154 | 6% | 95% | |
| 155 | 0.6% | 89% | |
| 156 | 0.8% | 89% | |
| 157 | 0.5% | 88% | |
| 158 | 1.4% | 88% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 160 | 1.3% | 86% | |
| 161 | 4% | 85% | |
| 162 | 2% | 81% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 79% | |
| 164 | 1.0% | 79% | |
| 165 | 10% | 78% | |
| 166 | 2% | 67% | |
| 167 | 2% | 65% | |
| 168 | 2% | 63% | |
| 169 | 1.2% | 61% | |
| 170 | 7% | 60% | |
| 171 | 1.4% | 52% | |
| 172 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 173 | 0.4% | 48% | |
| 174 | 0.5% | 48% | |
| 175 | 19% | 47% | |
| 176 | 0.1% | 28% | |
| 177 | 13% | 28% | |
| 178 | 2% | 15% | |
| 179 | 2% | 12% | |
| 180 | 1.1% | 11% | |
| 181 | 0.5% | 9% | |
| 182 | 0.3% | 9% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 184 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 185 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 186 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 188 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 189 | 3% | 6% | |
| 190 | 0% | 3% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 192 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 193 | 0% | 2% | |
| 194 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 195 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 196 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 197 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 198 | 0.4% | 1.3% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 200 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 201 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 202 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 203 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 205 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 0% | 100% | |
| 131 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 132 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 133 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 134 | 0.3% | 98.6% | |
| 135 | 0% | 98% | |
| 136 | 0% | 98% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 138 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 139 | 0% | 98% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 141 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 144 | 0.8% | 97% | |
| 145 | 1.0% | 97% | |
| 146 | 0.5% | 96% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 95% | |
| 148 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 149 | 2% | 95% | |
| 150 | 2% | 93% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 152 | 0.3% | 91% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 91% | |
| 154 | 11% | 91% | |
| 155 | 0.3% | 79% | |
| 156 | 0.4% | 79% | |
| 157 | 2% | 79% | |
| 158 | 2% | 76% | |
| 159 | 2% | 75% | |
| 160 | 0.7% | 72% | |
| 161 | 4% | 72% | |
| 162 | 3% | 68% | |
| 163 | 0.5% | 65% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 65% | |
| 165 | 24% | 64% | Median |
| 166 | 4% | 40% | |
| 167 | 2% | 36% | |
| 168 | 0.1% | 34% | |
| 169 | 3% | 34% | |
| 170 | 20% | 31% | |
| 171 | 0.4% | 12% | |
| 172 | 0.8% | 11% | |
| 173 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 174 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 175 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 176 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 177 | 0.6% | 9% | |
| 178 | 0.2% | 8% | |
| 179 | 2% | 8% | |
| 180 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 182 | 0.7% | 6% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 184 | 0% | 5% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 5% | |
| 186 | 0% | 5% | |
| 187 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 188 | 0.2% | 5% | |
| 189 | 3% | 5% | |
| 190 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 191 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 192 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 193 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 194 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 195 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 196 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 197 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 198 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 199 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 125 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 128 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 130 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 131 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 134 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 135 | 0% | 98% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 138 | 3% | 98% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 94% | |
| 140 | 0.5% | 94% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 94% | |
| 142 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 143 | 0.8% | 92% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 92% | |
| 145 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 146 | 5% | 91% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 86% | |
| 148 | 0.5% | 86% | |
| 149 | 14% | 86% | |
| 150 | 0.3% | 71% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 71% | |
| 152 | 0.8% | 71% | |
| 153 | 21% | 70% | |
| 154 | 7% | 49% | |
| 155 | 1.2% | 43% | |
| 156 | 2% | 41% | Median |
| 157 | 2% | 40% | |
| 158 | 4% | 38% | |
| 159 | 0.5% | 34% | |
| 160 | 2% | 33% | |
| 161 | 0.8% | 31% | |
| 162 | 2% | 31% | |
| 163 | 0.6% | 29% | |
| 164 | 14% | 28% | |
| 165 | 0.3% | 14% | |
| 166 | 1.0% | 14% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0.1% | 13% | |
| 168 | 3% | 13% | |
| 169 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 170 | 4% | 9% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 172 | 2% | 5% | |
| 173 | 0.1% | 4% | |
| 174 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 3% | |
| 176 | 0% | 3% | |
| 177 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 179 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 180 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 181 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 182 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 185 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 186 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 187 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 131 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 138 | 9% | 97% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 140 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 141 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 142 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 143 | 20% | 85% | |
| 144 | 1.3% | 65% | |
| 145 | 2% | 64% | |
| 146 | 6% | 62% | |
| 147 | 1.1% | 56% | |
| 148 | 2% | 55% | |
| 149 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 150 | 2% | 45% | |
| 151 | 1.1% | 43% | |
| 152 | 1.3% | 42% | |
| 153 | 2% | 40% | |
| 154 | 6% | 38% | |
| 155 | 1.1% | 33% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 31% | |
| 157 | 16% | 31% | |
| 158 | 3% | 16% | |
| 159 | 3% | 12% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 162 | 2% | 9% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 165 | 0% | 7% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 6% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 169 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 170 | 3% | 5% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 173 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 177 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 121 | 0% | 100% | |
| 122 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 123 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 124 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 125 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 126 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 127 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 128 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 129 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 130 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 131 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 132 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 133 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 134 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 138 | 9% | 97% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0.2% | 87% | |
| 140 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 141 | 0.5% | 87% | |
| 142 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 143 | 20% | 85% | |
| 144 | 1.3% | 65% | |
| 145 | 2% | 64% | |
| 146 | 6% | 62% | |
| 147 | 1.1% | 56% | |
| 148 | 2% | 55% | |
| 149 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 150 | 2% | 45% | |
| 151 | 1.1% | 43% | |
| 152 | 1.3% | 42% | |
| 153 | 2% | 40% | |
| 154 | 6% | 38% | |
| 155 | 1.1% | 33% | |
| 156 | 0.2% | 31% | |
| 157 | 16% | 31% | |
| 158 | 3% | 16% | |
| 159 | 3% | 12% | |
| 160 | 0.4% | 10% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 9% | |
| 162 | 2% | 9% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 7% | |
| 164 | 0.5% | 7% | |
| 165 | 0% | 7% | |
| 166 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 6% | |
| 168 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 169 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 170 | 3% | 5% | |
| 171 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 172 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 173 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 175 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 177 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 183 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 184 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Estymator
- Commissioner(s): DoRzeczy.pl
- Fieldwork period: 20–21 March 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1005
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.08%