Opinion Poll by Social Changes, 12–17 April 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 37.0% | 35.2–38.9% | 34.6–39.4% | 34.2–39.9% | 33.3–40.8% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 22.0% | 20.4–23.6% | 20.0–24.1% | 19.6–24.5% | 18.9–25.3% |
| Wiosna | 0.0% | 10.0% | 8.9–11.2% | 8.6–11.6% | 8.4–11.9% | 7.9–12.5% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.0–10.2% | 7.7–10.5% | 7.5–10.8% | 7.0–11.4% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.6–7.0% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.6–7.0% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.7% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.1% | 1.9–4.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 225 | 215–239 | 213–245 | 207–247 | 203–252 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 122 | 116–137 | 115–139 | 112–143 | 103–148 |
| Wiosna | 0 | 45 | 39–52 | 38–57 | 37–59 | 34–65 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 44 | 37–50 | 36–50 | 33–51 | 30–55 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 14 | 0–22 | 0–24 | 0–24 | 0–26 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 10 | 0–19 | 0–25 | 0–26 | 0–28 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 195 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 200 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 205 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 207 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 208 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 210 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 211 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 212 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 213 | 3% | 95% | |
| 214 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 215 | 3% | 92% | |
| 216 | 7% | 89% | |
| 217 | 2% | 82% | |
| 218 | 12% | 80% | |
| 219 | 0.5% | 68% | |
| 220 | 2% | 68% | |
| 221 | 0.7% | 65% | |
| 222 | 0.8% | 65% | |
| 223 | 0.7% | 64% | |
| 224 | 6% | 63% | |
| 225 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 226 | 8% | 47% | |
| 227 | 1.1% | 39% | |
| 228 | 1.0% | 38% | |
| 229 | 1.1% | 37% | |
| 230 | 8% | 36% | |
| 231 | 2% | 28% | Majority |
| 232 | 3% | 26% | |
| 233 | 2% | 23% | |
| 234 | 0.3% | 21% | |
| 235 | 1.0% | 21% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0.7% | 20% | |
| 237 | 2% | 19% | |
| 238 | 7% | 17% | |
| 239 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 240 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 242 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 243 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 244 | 3% | 9% | |
| 245 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 246 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 247 | 2% | 4% | |
| 248 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 249 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 250 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 251 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 252 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 255 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 98.5% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 112 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 115 | 5% | 96% | |
| 116 | 2% | 90% | |
| 117 | 4% | 89% | |
| 118 | 3% | 85% | |
| 119 | 4% | 82% | |
| 120 | 0.7% | 78% | |
| 121 | 22% | 77% | |
| 122 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 123 | 3% | 48% | |
| 124 | 11% | 46% | |
| 125 | 5% | 35% | |
| 126 | 5% | 30% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 24% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 24% | |
| 129 | 1.1% | 23% | |
| 130 | 4% | 22% | |
| 131 | 2% | 18% | |
| 132 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 133 | 1.1% | 15% | |
| 134 | 2% | 14% | |
| 135 | 2% | 13% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 11% | |
| 137 | 3% | 10% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 8% | Last Result |
| 139 | 2% | 7% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 143 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 144 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% |
Wiosna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wiosna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98% | |
| 38 | 3% | 95% | |
| 39 | 8% | 92% | |
| 40 | 1.2% | 84% | |
| 41 | 8% | 83% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 75% | |
| 43 | 9% | 74% | |
| 44 | 7% | 65% | |
| 45 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 46 | 9% | 45% | |
| 47 | 2% | 36% | |
| 48 | 5% | 34% | |
| 49 | 3% | 29% | |
| 50 | 7% | 27% | |
| 51 | 4% | 20% | |
| 52 | 8% | 16% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 7% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 6% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 6% | |
| 57 | 3% | 6% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 1.2% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 69 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 35 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 36 | 2% | 95% | |
| 37 | 5% | 94% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 89% | |
| 39 | 1.1% | 88% | |
| 40 | 9% | 87% | |
| 41 | 15% | 78% | |
| 42 | 6% | 63% | Last Result |
| 43 | 3% | 57% | |
| 44 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 45 | 8% | 44% | |
| 46 | 3% | 35% | |
| 47 | 3% | 33% | |
| 48 | 1.0% | 29% | |
| 49 | 4% | 28% | |
| 50 | 20% | 24% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 52 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 36% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 64% | |
| 2 | 0% | 64% | |
| 3 | 0% | 64% | |
| 4 | 0% | 64% | |
| 5 | 0% | 64% | |
| 6 | 0% | 64% | |
| 7 | 0% | 64% | |
| 8 | 0% | 64% | |
| 9 | 0% | 64% | |
| 10 | 0% | 64% | |
| 11 | 0% | 64% | |
| 12 | 0% | 64% | |
| 13 | 1.1% | 64% | |
| 14 | 14% | 63% | Median |
| 15 | 13% | 49% | |
| 16 | 1.4% | 36% | Last Result |
| 17 | 5% | 35% | |
| 18 | 12% | 30% | |
| 19 | 3% | 18% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 15% | |
| 21 | 4% | 14% | |
| 22 | 2% | 11% | |
| 23 | 2% | 9% | |
| 24 | 5% | 7% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 26 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 34% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 66% | |
| 2 | 0% | 66% | |
| 3 | 0% | 66% | |
| 4 | 0% | 66% | |
| 5 | 0% | 66% | |
| 6 | 0% | 66% | |
| 7 | 2% | 66% | |
| 8 | 4% | 64% | |
| 9 | 8% | 59% | |
| 10 | 2% | 51% | Median |
| 11 | 13% | 49% | |
| 12 | 12% | 36% | |
| 13 | 10% | 23% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 13% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 13% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 13% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 12% | |
| 18 | 0.7% | 11% | |
| 19 | 1.3% | 10% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 9% | |
| 21 | 0.9% | 9% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 7% | |
| 24 | 2% | 7% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 26 | 2% | 5% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 225 | 28% | 215–239 | 213–245 | 207–247 | 203–252 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 122 | 0% | 116–137 | 115–139 | 112–143 | 103–148 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 195 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 196 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 197 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 198 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 199 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 200 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 201 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 203 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 204 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 205 | 0.6% | 98.9% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 207 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 208 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 209 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 210 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 211 | 0.9% | 96% | |
| 212 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 213 | 3% | 95% | |
| 214 | 0.5% | 93% | |
| 215 | 3% | 92% | |
| 216 | 7% | 89% | |
| 217 | 2% | 82% | |
| 218 | 12% | 80% | |
| 219 | 0.5% | 68% | |
| 220 | 2% | 68% | |
| 221 | 0.7% | 65% | |
| 222 | 0.8% | 65% | |
| 223 | 0.7% | 64% | |
| 224 | 6% | 63% | |
| 225 | 11% | 58% | Median |
| 226 | 8% | 47% | |
| 227 | 1.1% | 39% | |
| 228 | 1.0% | 38% | |
| 229 | 1.1% | 37% | |
| 230 | 8% | 36% | |
| 231 | 2% | 28% | Majority |
| 232 | 3% | 26% | |
| 233 | 2% | 23% | |
| 234 | 0.3% | 21% | |
| 235 | 1.0% | 21% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0.7% | 20% | |
| 237 | 2% | 19% | |
| 238 | 7% | 17% | |
| 239 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 240 | 0.3% | 10% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 10% | |
| 242 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 243 | 0.4% | 9% | |
| 244 | 3% | 9% | |
| 245 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 246 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 247 | 2% | 4% | |
| 248 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 249 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 250 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 251 | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 252 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 253 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 254 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 255 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 256 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 257 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 258 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 259 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 260 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 261 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 262 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 97 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 98 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 99 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 100 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 101 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 102 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 103 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 104 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 105 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 98.7% | |
| 109 | 0.1% | 98.5% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 111 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 112 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 113 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 114 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 115 | 5% | 96% | |
| 116 | 2% | 90% | |
| 117 | 4% | 89% | |
| 118 | 3% | 85% | |
| 119 | 4% | 82% | |
| 120 | 0.7% | 78% | |
| 121 | 22% | 77% | |
| 122 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 123 | 3% | 48% | |
| 124 | 11% | 46% | |
| 125 | 5% | 35% | |
| 126 | 5% | 30% | |
| 127 | 0.6% | 24% | |
| 128 | 0.4% | 24% | |
| 129 | 1.1% | 23% | |
| 130 | 4% | 22% | |
| 131 | 2% | 18% | |
| 132 | 0.5% | 16% | |
| 133 | 1.1% | 15% | |
| 134 | 2% | 14% | |
| 135 | 2% | 13% | |
| 136 | 0.5% | 11% | |
| 137 | 3% | 10% | |
| 138 | 0.6% | 8% | Last Result |
| 139 | 2% | 7% | |
| 140 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 5% | |
| 142 | 0.5% | 4% | |
| 143 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 144 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 147 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 148 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 149 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 151 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 152 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Social Changes
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 12–17 April 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1111
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.92%