Opinion Poll by Social Changes, 19–24 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość 37.6% 38.6% 36.7–40.5% 36.1–41.1% 35.7–41.6% 34.8–42.5%
Platforma Obywatelska 24.1% 22.8% 21.2–24.5% 20.7–25.0% 20.3–25.4% 19.6–26.2%
Wiosna 0.0% 10.9% 9.7–12.2% 9.4–12.6% 9.1–12.9% 8.6–13.5%
Kukiz’15 8.8% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 6.0–10.3%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe 5.1% 5.9% 5.1–7.0% 4.8–7.2% 4.6–7.5% 4.3–8.0%
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej 7.6% 5.0% 4.2–5.9% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.4% 3.5–6.9%
KORWiN 4.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Lewica Razem 3.6% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość 235 229 215–236 212–243 209–247 201–255
Platforma Obywatelska 138 129 116–135 115–140 111–144 106–148
Wiosna 0 46 42–55 41–57 39–63 35–69
Kukiz’15 42 34 26–42 23–42 19–45 13–48
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe 16 18 14–25 13–25 0–25 0–30
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej 0 0 0–12 0–18 0–22 0–27
KORWiN 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewica Razem 0 0 0 0 0 0

Prawo i Sprawiedliwość

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0.2% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.7%  
201 0.2% 99.7%  
202 0.2% 99.5%  
203 0% 99.3%  
204 0.2% 99.3%  
205 0.3% 99.1%  
206 0.2% 98.8%  
207 0.5% 98.6%  
208 0.3% 98%  
209 0.9% 98%  
210 0.7% 97%  
211 0.6% 96%  
212 2% 96%  
213 0.2% 94%  
214 1.4% 94%  
215 5% 92%  
216 0.6% 87%  
217 7% 87%  
218 2% 80%  
219 2% 78%  
220 0.7% 76%  
221 3% 76%  
222 3% 73%  
223 1.2% 70%  
224 1.2% 69%  
225 8% 68%  
226 4% 60%  
227 2% 56%  
228 0.2% 54%  
229 10% 54% Median
230 10% 44%  
231 0.7% 34% Majority
232 6% 33%  
233 0.5% 27%  
234 0.3% 27%  
235 17% 27% Last Result
236 2% 10%  
237 0.4% 9%  
238 2% 8%  
239 0.1% 6%  
240 0.4% 6%  
241 0.1% 6%  
242 0.1% 6%  
243 0.7% 6%  
244 0.1% 5%  
245 0% 5%  
246 0.1% 5%  
247 3% 5%  
248 0% 2%  
249 0.2% 2%  
250 0% 1.5%  
251 0.3% 1.4%  
252 0.1% 1.1%  
253 0.3% 1.0%  
254 0% 0.8%  
255 0.5% 0.8%  
256 0% 0.3%  
257 0.1% 0.2%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0.1% 0.1%  
261 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.6% 99.5%  
107 0.3% 98.9%  
108 0.2% 98.6%  
109 0.4% 98%  
110 0.2% 98%  
111 0.6% 98%  
112 0.5% 97%  
113 0.4% 97%  
114 1.1% 96%  
115 1.0% 95%  
116 6% 94%  
117 0.8% 89%  
118 2% 88%  
119 9% 86%  
120 0.5% 78%  
121 0.5% 77%  
122 1.1% 77%  
123 5% 76%  
124 2% 71%  
125 1.1% 69%  
126 3% 67%  
127 4% 64%  
128 2% 60%  
129 14% 58% Median
130 21% 45%  
131 0.6% 23%  
132 6% 23%  
133 2% 17%  
134 4% 15%  
135 0.3% 10%  
136 2% 10%  
137 0.6% 8%  
138 0.6% 7% Last Result
139 1.4% 6%  
140 0.4% 5%  
141 0.8% 5%  
142 1.0% 4%  
143 0.2% 3%  
144 0.7% 3%  
145 0.5% 2%  
146 0.3% 1.4%  
147 0.4% 1.1%  
148 0.3% 0.6%  
149 0.1% 0.4%  
150 0% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Wiosna

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wiosna page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.8%  
35 0.2% 99.6%  
36 0.2% 99.4%  
37 1.0% 99.3%  
38 0.5% 98%  
39 2% 98%  
40 0.4% 96%  
41 1.1% 95%  
42 8% 94%  
43 12% 86%  
44 4% 74%  
45 20% 71%  
46 5% 51% Median
47 0.9% 45%  
48 0.4% 45%  
49 3% 44%  
50 6% 41%  
51 3% 35%  
52 8% 31%  
53 5% 23%  
54 3% 18%  
55 9% 16%  
56 0.6% 6%  
57 1.0% 6%  
58 0.1% 5%  
59 0.1% 5%  
60 0.1% 4%  
61 0.2% 4%  
62 0.2% 4%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.4% 2%  
65 0.3% 2%  
66 0.3% 2%  
67 0.5% 1.4%  
68 0.3% 0.8%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Kukiz’15

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.1% 99.9%  
13 0.7% 99.8%  
14 0.1% 99.1%  
15 0.4% 99.1%  
16 0.7% 98.7%  
17 0.2% 98%  
18 0.2% 98%  
19 0.6% 98%  
20 0.5% 97%  
21 0.5% 96%  
22 0.4% 96%  
23 1.0% 96%  
24 0.4% 95%  
25 4% 94%  
26 0.5% 90%  
27 0.3% 90%  
28 2% 90%  
29 1.1% 88%  
30 0.8% 87%  
31 6% 86%  
32 6% 80%  
33 10% 74%  
34 19% 64% Median
35 8% 45%  
36 2% 36%  
37 8% 34%  
38 3% 26%  
39 7% 24%  
40 2% 17%  
41 3% 14%  
42 8% 12% Last Result
43 1.2% 4%  
44 0.4% 3%  
45 0.5% 3%  
46 0.5% 2%  
47 0.7% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 0% 96%  
9 0% 96%  
10 0% 96%  
11 0% 96%  
12 0% 96%  
13 2% 96%  
14 16% 94%  
15 4% 78%  
16 21% 74% Last Result
17 3% 53%  
18 6% 50% Median
19 2% 44%  
20 0.8% 42%  
21 1.5% 41%  
22 2% 40%  
23 5% 38%  
24 6% 33%  
25 25% 27%  
26 0.6% 2%  
27 0.3% 1.3%  
28 0.2% 1.0%  
29 0.3% 0.8%  
30 0.1% 0.6%  
31 0.1% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.3%  
34 0% 0.2%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 36%  
2 0% 36%  
3 0% 36%  
4 0% 36%  
5 0% 36%  
6 0.1% 36%  
7 0.6% 36%  
8 5% 36%  
9 9% 30%  
10 1.1% 21%  
11 2% 20%  
12 8% 18%  
13 0.3% 10%  
14 2% 9%  
15 0.4% 7%  
16 0.5% 7%  
17 0.3% 6%  
18 2% 6%  
19 0.5% 4%  
20 0.2% 3%  
21 0.4% 3%  
22 0.2% 3%  
23 0.3% 2%  
24 1.1% 2%  
25 0.3% 1.0%  
26 0.2% 0.7%  
27 0.2% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

KORWiN

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość 235 229 34% 215–236 212–243 209–247 201–255
Platforma Obywatelska 138 129 0% 116–135 115–140 111–144 106–148

Prawo i Sprawiedliwość

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0.2% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.7%  
201 0.2% 99.7%  
202 0.2% 99.5%  
203 0% 99.3%  
204 0.2% 99.3%  
205 0.3% 99.1%  
206 0.2% 98.8%  
207 0.5% 98.6%  
208 0.3% 98%  
209 0.9% 98%  
210 0.7% 97%  
211 0.6% 96%  
212 2% 96%  
213 0.2% 94%  
214 1.4% 94%  
215 5% 92%  
216 0.6% 87%  
217 7% 87%  
218 2% 80%  
219 2% 78%  
220 0.7% 76%  
221 3% 76%  
222 3% 73%  
223 1.2% 70%  
224 1.2% 69%  
225 8% 68%  
226 4% 60%  
227 2% 56%  
228 0.2% 54%  
229 10% 54% Median
230 10% 44%  
231 0.7% 34% Majority
232 6% 33%  
233 0.5% 27%  
234 0.3% 27%  
235 17% 27% Last Result
236 2% 10%  
237 0.4% 9%  
238 2% 8%  
239 0.1% 6%  
240 0.4% 6%  
241 0.1% 6%  
242 0.1% 6%  
243 0.7% 6%  
244 0.1% 5%  
245 0% 5%  
246 0.1% 5%  
247 3% 5%  
248 0% 2%  
249 0.2% 2%  
250 0% 1.5%  
251 0.3% 1.4%  
252 0.1% 1.1%  
253 0.3% 1.0%  
254 0% 0.8%  
255 0.5% 0.8%  
256 0% 0.3%  
257 0.1% 0.2%  
258 0% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0.1% 0.1%  
261 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.6% 99.5%  
107 0.3% 98.9%  
108 0.2% 98.6%  
109 0.4% 98%  
110 0.2% 98%  
111 0.6% 98%  
112 0.5% 97%  
113 0.4% 97%  
114 1.1% 96%  
115 1.0% 95%  
116 6% 94%  
117 0.8% 89%  
118 2% 88%  
119 9% 86%  
120 0.5% 78%  
121 0.5% 77%  
122 1.1% 77%  
123 5% 76%  
124 2% 71%  
125 1.1% 69%  
126 3% 67%  
127 4% 64%  
128 2% 60%  
129 14% 58% Median
130 21% 45%  
131 0.6% 23%  
132 6% 23%  
133 2% 17%  
134 4% 15%  
135 0.3% 10%  
136 2% 10%  
137 0.6% 8%  
138 0.6% 7% Last Result
139 1.4% 6%  
140 0.4% 5%  
141 0.8% 5%  
142 1.0% 4%  
143 0.2% 3%  
144 0.7% 3%  
145 0.5% 2%  
146 0.3% 1.4%  
147 0.4% 1.1%  
148 0.3% 0.6%  
149 0.1% 0.4%  
150 0% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations