Opinion Poll by Pracownia Analiz Społeczno-Politycznych for Gazeta Bałtycka, 1–4 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 36.0% | 34.1–37.9% | 33.6–38.4% | 33.1–38.9% | 32.2–39.8% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 28.0% | 26.3–29.8% | 25.8–30.3% | 25.4–30.8% | 24.5–31.7% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.0–10.2% | 7.7–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 7.0–11.5% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.1% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.7% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.5–6.8% | 4.3–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% |
| Wiosna | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.0–6.4% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 3.0–5.3% | 2.7–5.8% |
| .Nowoczesna | 7.6% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.7–3.6% | 1.5–4.0% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 211 | 201–227 | 198–231 | 196–236 | 191–243 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 159 | 149–171 | 146–174 | 143–179 | 137–183 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 43 | 35–48 | 32–50 | 30–51 | 26–54 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 28 | 20–33 | 15–36 | 14–38 | 10–40 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 18 | 0–24 | 0–26 | 0–26 | 0–27 |
| Wiosna | 0 | 0 | 0–10 | 0–12 | 0–13 | 0–19 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–6 | 0–8 | 0–12 |
| .Nowoczesna | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 185 | 0% | 100% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 188 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 193 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 194 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 195 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 196 | 2% | 98% | |
| 197 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 198 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 199 | 2% | 95% | |
| 200 | 2% | 93% | |
| 201 | 2% | 91% | |
| 202 | 2% | 90% | |
| 203 | 4% | 88% | |
| 204 | 1.4% | 83% | |
| 205 | 4% | 82% | |
| 206 | 3% | 78% | |
| 207 | 2% | 75% | |
| 208 | 5% | 73% | |
| 209 | 3% | 69% | |
| 210 | 6% | 66% | |
| 211 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 212 | 4% | 49% | |
| 213 | 2% | 44% | |
| 214 | 2% | 43% | |
| 215 | 4% | 41% | |
| 216 | 5% | 37% | |
| 217 | 3% | 32% | |
| 218 | 4% | 30% | |
| 219 | 1.0% | 26% | |
| 220 | 2% | 25% | |
| 221 | 1.2% | 23% | |
| 222 | 4% | 21% | |
| 223 | 3% | 18% | |
| 224 | 1.4% | 15% | |
| 225 | 2% | 14% | |
| 226 | 2% | 12% | |
| 227 | 2% | 11% | |
| 228 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 229 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 230 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 231 | 3% | 8% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 233 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 234 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 3% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 237 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 238 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 242 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 243 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 245 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 246 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 248 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 144 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 146 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 147 | 2% | 95% | |
| 148 | 2% | 93% | |
| 149 | 3% | 91% | |
| 150 | 9% | 88% | |
| 151 | 2% | 80% | |
| 152 | 3% | 78% | |
| 153 | 3% | 75% | |
| 154 | 4% | 71% | |
| 155 | 5% | 67% | |
| 156 | 4% | 63% | |
| 157 | 3% | 59% | |
| 158 | 6% | 56% | |
| 159 | 2% | 50% | Median |
| 160 | 6% | 48% | |
| 161 | 5% | 43% | |
| 162 | 7% | 38% | |
| 163 | 3% | 31% | |
| 164 | 2% | 28% | |
| 165 | 2% | 26% | |
| 166 | 4% | 24% | |
| 167 | 3% | 20% | |
| 168 | 1.3% | 17% | |
| 169 | 3% | 15% | |
| 170 | 3% | 13% | |
| 171 | 2% | 10% | |
| 172 | 2% | 8% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 174 | 2% | 6% | |
| 175 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 177 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 182 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.2% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 96% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 95% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 95% | |
| 34 | 1.5% | 94% | |
| 35 | 4% | 93% | |
| 36 | 2% | 89% | |
| 37 | 2% | 87% | |
| 38 | 5% | 85% | |
| 39 | 3% | 80% | |
| 40 | 4% | 76% | |
| 41 | 7% | 72% | |
| 42 | 13% | 65% | Last Result |
| 43 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 44 | 9% | 47% | |
| 45 | 5% | 38% | |
| 46 | 16% | 34% | |
| 47 | 3% | 18% | |
| 48 | 5% | 14% | |
| 49 | 2% | 10% | |
| 50 | 4% | 7% | |
| 51 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 98.5% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 14 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 16 | 1.4% | 95% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 94% | |
| 18 | 1.4% | 93% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 91% | |
| 20 | 3% | 90% | |
| 21 | 2% | 87% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 85% | |
| 23 | 4% | 84% | |
| 24 | 2% | 80% | |
| 25 | 3% | 78% | |
| 26 | 4% | 76% | |
| 27 | 8% | 71% | |
| 28 | 23% | 63% | Median |
| 29 | 14% | 40% | |
| 30 | 4% | 27% | |
| 31 | 3% | 22% | |
| 32 | 4% | 19% | |
| 33 | 5% | 15% | |
| 34 | 3% | 10% | |
| 35 | 2% | 7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 6% | |
| 37 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 38 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 76% | |
| 2 | 0% | 76% | |
| 3 | 0% | 76% | |
| 4 | 0% | 76% | |
| 5 | 0% | 76% | |
| 6 | 0% | 76% | |
| 7 | 0% | 76% | |
| 8 | 0% | 76% | |
| 9 | 0% | 76% | |
| 10 | 0% | 76% | |
| 11 | 0% | 76% | |
| 12 | 2% | 76% | |
| 13 | 3% | 74% | |
| 14 | 9% | 71% | |
| 15 | 3% | 63% | |
| 16 | 3% | 60% | Last Result |
| 17 | 3% | 57% | |
| 18 | 7% | 55% | Median |
| 19 | 4% | 47% | |
| 20 | 3% | 43% | |
| 21 | 5% | 41% | |
| 22 | 7% | 36% | |
| 23 | 10% | 28% | |
| 24 | 11% | 18% | |
| 25 | 2% | 8% | |
| 26 | 3% | 5% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Wiosna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wiosna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 81% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 19% | |
| 2 | 0% | 19% | |
| 3 | 0% | 19% | |
| 4 | 0% | 19% | |
| 5 | 0% | 19% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 19% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 19% | |
| 8 | 3% | 18% | |
| 9 | 3% | 15% | |
| 10 | 3% | 12% | |
| 11 | 3% | 9% | |
| 12 | 2% | 6% | |
| 13 | 2% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 9% | |
| 5 | 4% | 9% | |
| 6 | 2% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 4% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 211 | 8% | 201–227 | 198–231 | 196–236 | 191–243 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna – Lewica Razem | 182 | 202 | 0.1% | 187–215 | 183–218 | 178–220 | 174–226 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 202 | 0.1% | 187–215 | 183–218 | 178–220 | 174–226 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 187 | 0% | 175–197 | 172–202 | 167–204 | 162–211 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 174 | 0% | 160–188 | 156–192 | 153–196 | 147–201 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 159 | 0% | 149–171 | 146–174 | 143–179 | 137–183 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 159 | 0% | 149–171 | 146–174 | 143–179 | 137–183 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 185 | 0% | 100% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 188 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 189 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 190 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 191 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 192 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 193 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 194 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 195 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 196 | 2% | 98% | |
| 197 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 198 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 199 | 2% | 95% | |
| 200 | 2% | 93% | |
| 201 | 2% | 91% | |
| 202 | 2% | 90% | |
| 203 | 4% | 88% | |
| 204 | 1.4% | 83% | |
| 205 | 4% | 82% | |
| 206 | 3% | 78% | |
| 207 | 2% | 75% | |
| 208 | 5% | 73% | |
| 209 | 3% | 69% | |
| 210 | 6% | 66% | |
| 211 | 11% | 60% | Median |
| 212 | 4% | 49% | |
| 213 | 2% | 44% | |
| 214 | 2% | 43% | |
| 215 | 4% | 41% | |
| 216 | 5% | 37% | |
| 217 | 3% | 32% | |
| 218 | 4% | 30% | |
| 219 | 1.0% | 26% | |
| 220 | 2% | 25% | |
| 221 | 1.2% | 23% | |
| 222 | 4% | 21% | |
| 223 | 3% | 18% | |
| 224 | 1.4% | 15% | |
| 225 | 2% | 14% | |
| 226 | 2% | 12% | |
| 227 | 2% | 11% | |
| 228 | 0.7% | 9% | |
| 229 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 230 | 0.5% | 8% | |
| 231 | 3% | 8% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.4% | 5% | |
| 233 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 234 | 0.8% | 4% | |
| 235 | 0.1% | 3% | Last Result |
| 236 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 237 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 238 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 239 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 240 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 241 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 242 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 243 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 244 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 245 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 246 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 247 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 248 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna – Lewica Razem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 164 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 168 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 176 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 181 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 182 | 0.9% | 96% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 184 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 185 | 2% | 94% | |
| 186 | 0.9% | 92% | |
| 187 | 4% | 91% | |
| 188 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 189 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 190 | 2% | 85% | |
| 191 | 1.5% | 84% | |
| 192 | 5% | 82% | |
| 193 | 0.8% | 77% | |
| 194 | 2% | 77% | |
| 195 | 1.3% | 75% | |
| 196 | 2% | 74% | |
| 197 | 4% | 71% | |
| 198 | 2% | 67% | |
| 199 | 3% | 65% | |
| 200 | 4% | 62% | |
| 201 | 3% | 58% | |
| 202 | 6% | 55% | |
| 203 | 9% | 49% | |
| 204 | 5% | 40% | |
| 205 | 3% | 36% | Median |
| 206 | 1.4% | 33% | |
| 207 | 3% | 31% | |
| 208 | 3% | 28% | |
| 209 | 1.2% | 25% | |
| 210 | 1.1% | 24% | |
| 211 | 3% | 23% | |
| 212 | 1.1% | 20% | |
| 213 | 3% | 19% | |
| 214 | 5% | 16% | |
| 215 | 2% | 11% | |
| 216 | 2% | 9% | |
| 217 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 218 | 2% | 7% | |
| 219 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 220 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 221 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 222 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 223 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 224 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 226 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 228 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 164 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 165 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 166 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 167 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 168 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 169 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 170 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 171 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 172 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 173 | 0% | 99.6% | |
| 174 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 175 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 176 | 0.8% | 98.9% | |
| 177 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 179 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 180 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 181 | 1.1% | 97% | |
| 182 | 0.9% | 96% | Last Result |
| 183 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 184 | 1.0% | 95% | |
| 185 | 2% | 94% | |
| 186 | 0.9% | 92% | |
| 187 | 4% | 91% | |
| 188 | 0.7% | 87% | |
| 189 | 0.6% | 86% | |
| 190 | 2% | 85% | |
| 191 | 1.5% | 84% | |
| 192 | 5% | 82% | |
| 193 | 0.8% | 77% | |
| 194 | 2% | 77% | |
| 195 | 1.3% | 75% | |
| 196 | 2% | 74% | |
| 197 | 4% | 71% | |
| 198 | 2% | 67% | |
| 199 | 3% | 65% | |
| 200 | 4% | 62% | |
| 201 | 3% | 58% | |
| 202 | 6% | 55% | |
| 203 | 9% | 49% | |
| 204 | 5% | 40% | |
| 205 | 3% | 36% | Median |
| 206 | 1.4% | 33% | |
| 207 | 3% | 31% | |
| 208 | 3% | 28% | |
| 209 | 1.2% | 25% | |
| 210 | 1.1% | 24% | |
| 211 | 3% | 23% | |
| 212 | 1.1% | 20% | |
| 213 | 3% | 19% | |
| 214 | 5% | 16% | |
| 215 | 2% | 11% | |
| 216 | 2% | 9% | |
| 217 | 0.9% | 7% | |
| 218 | 2% | 7% | |
| 219 | 1.0% | 5% | |
| 220 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 221 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 222 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 223 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 224 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 225 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 226 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 227 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 228 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 229 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 230 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 231 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 232 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 233 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 234 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 156 | 0% | 100% | |
| 157 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 158 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 160 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 161 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 163 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 99.2% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 98.9% | |
| 166 | 0.8% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 167 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 168 | 0.6% | 97% | |
| 169 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 170 | 1.0% | 96% | |
| 171 | 0.2% | 96% | |
| 172 | 0.6% | 95% | |
| 173 | 0.3% | 95% | |
| 174 | 4% | 94% | |
| 175 | 1.1% | 90% | |
| 176 | 2% | 89% | |
| 177 | 1.1% | 87% | |
| 178 | 5% | 86% | |
| 179 | 7% | 81% | |
| 180 | 2% | 74% | |
| 181 | 3% | 72% | |
| 182 | 3% | 69% | |
| 183 | 4% | 65% | |
| 184 | 2% | 62% | |
| 185 | 4% | 60% | |
| 186 | 3% | 56% | |
| 187 | 6% | 53% | Median |
| 188 | 2% | 47% | |
| 189 | 7% | 45% | |
| 190 | 8% | 38% | |
| 191 | 5% | 31% | |
| 192 | 4% | 26% | |
| 193 | 1.4% | 22% | |
| 194 | 2% | 20% | |
| 195 | 4% | 18% | |
| 196 | 3% | 15% | |
| 197 | 2% | 12% | |
| 198 | 1.1% | 10% | |
| 199 | 0.7% | 8% | |
| 200 | 1.2% | 8% | |
| 201 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 202 | 2% | 6% | |
| 203 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 204 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 205 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 206 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 207 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 208 | 0.2% | 1.3% | |
| 209 | 0.4% | 1.2% | |
| 210 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 211 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 212 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 213 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 214 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 215 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 216 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 217 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 218 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 219 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 141 | 0% | 100% | |
| 142 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 143 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 144 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 146 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 148 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 98.7% | |
| 150 | 0.6% | 98.5% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 98% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 153 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 154 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 155 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 156 | 3% | 96% | |
| 157 | 0.8% | 93% | |
| 158 | 1.0% | 92% | |
| 159 | 1.0% | 91% | |
| 160 | 4% | 90% | |
| 161 | 0.7% | 86% | |
| 162 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 163 | 0.8% | 85% | |
| 164 | 3% | 84% | |
| 165 | 1.5% | 81% | |
| 166 | 3% | 80% | |
| 167 | 3% | 77% | |
| 168 | 2% | 74% | |
| 169 | 3% | 72% | |
| 170 | 3% | 70% | |
| 171 | 6% | 67% | |
| 172 | 3% | 61% | |
| 173 | 1.5% | 58% | |
| 174 | 9% | 57% | |
| 175 | 3% | 48% | |
| 176 | 5% | 44% | |
| 177 | 3% | 39% | Median |
| 178 | 3% | 36% | |
| 179 | 3% | 33% | |
| 180 | 2% | 30% | |
| 181 | 4% | 28% | |
| 182 | 2% | 25% | Last Result |
| 183 | 2% | 22% | |
| 184 | 1.4% | 21% | |
| 185 | 4% | 19% | |
| 186 | 1.1% | 16% | |
| 187 | 2% | 14% | |
| 188 | 3% | 12% | |
| 189 | 2% | 9% | |
| 190 | 0.8% | 7% | |
| 191 | 0.5% | 6% | |
| 192 | 1.5% | 6% | |
| 193 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 194 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 195 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 196 | 0.2% | 3% | |
| 197 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 198 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 199 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 200 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 201 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 202 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 203 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 204 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 205 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 206 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 207 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 208 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 139 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 144 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 146 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 147 | 2% | 95% | |
| 148 | 2% | 93% | |
| 149 | 3% | 91% | |
| 150 | 9% | 88% | |
| 151 | 2% | 80% | |
| 152 | 3% | 78% | |
| 153 | 3% | 75% | |
| 154 | 4% | 71% | |
| 155 | 5% | 67% | |
| 156 | 4% | 63% | |
| 157 | 3% | 59% | |
| 158 | 6% | 56% | |
| 159 | 2% | 50% | Median |
| 160 | 6% | 48% | |
| 161 | 5% | 43% | |
| 162 | 7% | 38% | |
| 163 | 3% | 31% | |
| 164 | 2% | 28% | |
| 165 | 2% | 26% | |
| 166 | 4% | 24% | Last Result |
| 167 | 3% | 20% | |
| 168 | 1.3% | 17% | |
| 169 | 3% | 15% | |
| 170 | 3% | 13% | |
| 171 | 2% | 10% | |
| 172 | 2% | 8% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 174 | 2% | 6% | |
| 175 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 177 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 182 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131 | 0% | 100% | |
| 132 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 133 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 134 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 135 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 136 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 137 | 0.1% | 99.6% | |
| 138 | 0.5% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 139 | 0.2% | 99.0% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 98.8% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 142 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 143 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 144 | 0.9% | 97% | |
| 145 | 0.4% | 97% | |
| 146 | 1.2% | 96% | |
| 147 | 2% | 95% | |
| 148 | 2% | 93% | |
| 149 | 3% | 91% | |
| 150 | 9% | 88% | |
| 151 | 2% | 80% | |
| 152 | 3% | 78% | |
| 153 | 3% | 75% | |
| 154 | 4% | 71% | |
| 155 | 5% | 67% | |
| 156 | 4% | 63% | |
| 157 | 3% | 59% | |
| 158 | 6% | 56% | |
| 159 | 2% | 50% | Median |
| 160 | 6% | 48% | |
| 161 | 5% | 43% | |
| 162 | 7% | 38% | |
| 163 | 3% | 31% | |
| 164 | 2% | 28% | |
| 165 | 2% | 26% | |
| 166 | 4% | 24% | |
| 167 | 3% | 20% | |
| 168 | 1.3% | 17% | |
| 169 | 3% | 15% | |
| 170 | 3% | 13% | |
| 171 | 2% | 10% | |
| 172 | 2% | 8% | |
| 173 | 0.4% | 6% | |
| 174 | 2% | 6% | |
| 175 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 176 | 0.2% | 4% | |
| 177 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 178 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 179 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 180 | 0.4% | 2% | |
| 181 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 182 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 183 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 184 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 185 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 186 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 187 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 188 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 189 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 190 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 191 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Pracownia Analiz Społeczno-Politycznych
- Commissioner(s): Gazeta Bałtycka
- Fieldwork period: 1–4 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1054
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.57%