Opinion Poll by Social Changes, 24–29 May 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 37.6% | 40.6% | 38.6–42.6% | 38.1–43.1% | 37.6–43.6% | 36.7–44.6% |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 24.1% | 22.9% | 21.3–24.6% | 20.8–25.1% | 20.4–25.5% | 19.7–26.4% |
| Wiosna | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 7.0–11.6% |
| Kukiz’15 | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.9–10.2% | 7.6–10.5% | 7.3–10.8% | 6.9–11.5% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.3–7.0% | 3.9–7.6% |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 7.6% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| .Nowoczesna | 7.6% | 3.5% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.2% |
| KORWiN | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.2–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 2.0–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Lewica Razem | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.0–3.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 238 | 224–254 | 224–257 | 221–258 | 214–267 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 125 | 114–136 | 113–139 | 111–142 | 106–149 |
| Wiosna | 0 | 40 | 33–45 | 30–47 | 29–49 | 27–50 |
| Kukiz’15 | 42 | 42 | 35–48 | 33–48 | 27–49 | 23–52 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe | 16 | 17 | 0–23 | 0–25 | 0–26 | 0–27 |
| Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–10 | 0–11 | 0–15 |
| .Nowoczesna | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–10 |
| KORWiN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lewica Razem | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 208 | 0% | 100% | |
| 209 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 211 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 212 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 215 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 218 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 219 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 220 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 222 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 223 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 224 | 6% | 96% | |
| 225 | 0.9% | 90% | |
| 226 | 2% | 89% | |
| 227 | 0.8% | 87% | |
| 228 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 229 | 3% | 85% | |
| 230 | 2% | 82% | |
| 231 | 2% | 79% | Majority |
| 232 | 2% | 77% | |
| 233 | 4% | 75% | |
| 234 | 1.0% | 71% | |
| 235 | 1.5% | 70% | Last Result |
| 236 | 5% | 69% | |
| 237 | 3% | 64% | |
| 238 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 239 | 0.8% | 49% | |
| 240 | 3% | 48% | |
| 241 | 8% | 45% | |
| 242 | 2% | 37% | |
| 243 | 3% | 35% | |
| 244 | 5% | 31% | |
| 245 | 2% | 27% | |
| 246 | 4% | 25% | |
| 247 | 2% | 21% | |
| 248 | 3% | 19% | |
| 249 | 1.3% | 16% | |
| 250 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 251 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 252 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 253 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 254 | 2% | 11% | |
| 255 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 256 | 2% | 7% | |
| 257 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 258 | 2% | 4% | |
| 259 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 260 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 263 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 267 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 269 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 275 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 112 | 2% | 97% | |
| 113 | 5% | 96% | |
| 114 | 2% | 91% | |
| 115 | 3% | 89% | |
| 116 | 3% | 87% | |
| 117 | 4% | 84% | |
| 118 | 3% | 80% | |
| 119 | 5% | 78% | |
| 120 | 5% | 73% | |
| 121 | 4% | 68% | |
| 122 | 2% | 63% | |
| 123 | 8% | 61% | |
| 124 | 1.5% | 53% | |
| 125 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 126 | 4% | 39% | |
| 127 | 5% | 35% | |
| 128 | 6% | 31% | |
| 129 | 2% | 24% | |
| 130 | 5% | 23% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 132 | 1.5% | 17% | |
| 133 | 3% | 15% | |
| 134 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 135 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 136 | 2% | 10% | |
| 137 | 2% | 9% | |
| 138 | 1.1% | 7% | Last Result |
| 139 | 2% | 5% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% |
Wiosna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wiosna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 29 | 2% | 98% | |
| 30 | 2% | 96% | |
| 31 | 2% | 94% | |
| 32 | 2% | 93% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 90% | |
| 34 | 2% | 89% | |
| 35 | 3% | 87% | |
| 36 | 6% | 84% | |
| 37 | 6% | 78% | |
| 38 | 15% | 72% | |
| 39 | 5% | 57% | |
| 40 | 8% | 52% | Median |
| 41 | 6% | 44% | |
| 42 | 6% | 38% | |
| 43 | 9% | 32% | |
| 44 | 10% | 23% | |
| 45 | 4% | 13% | |
| 46 | 4% | 9% | |
| 47 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 4% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 3% | |
| 50 | 2% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 98% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 97% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 97% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 96% | |
| 33 | 1.3% | 95% | |
| 34 | 2% | 94% | |
| 35 | 2% | 92% | |
| 36 | 1.4% | 90% | |
| 37 | 4% | 88% | |
| 38 | 6% | 84% | |
| 39 | 17% | 79% | |
| 40 | 8% | 62% | |
| 41 | 2% | 54% | |
| 42 | 9% | 52% | Last Result, Median |
| 43 | 15% | 43% | |
| 44 | 10% | 28% | |
| 45 | 3% | 17% | |
| 46 | 2% | 14% | |
| 47 | 2% | 12% | |
| 48 | 6% | 11% | |
| 49 | 3% | 5% | |
| 50 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 79% | |
| 2 | 0% | 79% | |
| 3 | 0% | 79% | |
| 4 | 0% | 79% | |
| 5 | 0% | 79% | |
| 6 | 0% | 79% | |
| 7 | 0% | 79% | |
| 8 | 0% | 79% | |
| 9 | 0% | 79% | |
| 10 | 0% | 79% | |
| 11 | 0% | 79% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 79% | |
| 13 | 7% | 78% | |
| 14 | 7% | 71% | |
| 15 | 7% | 65% | |
| 16 | 5% | 58% | Last Result |
| 17 | 7% | 53% | Median |
| 18 | 3% | 46% | |
| 19 | 2% | 43% | |
| 20 | 13% | 41% | |
| 21 | 4% | 28% | |
| 22 | 11% | 24% | |
| 23 | 3% | 13% | |
| 24 | 4% | 10% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 26 | 4% | 5% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 8% | |
| 5 | 0% | 8% | |
| 6 | 0% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 8% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 7% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 7% | |
| 10 | 2% | 6% | |
| 11 | 2% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prawo i Sprawiedliwość | 235 | 238 | 79% | 224–254 | 224–257 | 221–258 | 214–267 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna – Lewica Razem | 182 | 142 | 0% | 125–153 | 123–156 | 120–158 | 115–166 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 140 | 0% | 125–152 | 122–155 | 120–158 | 114–165 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna | 182 | 142 | 0% | 125–153 | 123–156 | 120–158 | 115–166 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 125 | 0% | 116–137 | 113–140 | 112–143 | 107–152 |
| Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna | 166 | 125 | 0% | 114–136 | 113–139 | 112–142 | 106–149 |
| Platforma Obywatelska | 138 | 125 | 0% | 114–136 | 113–139 | 111–142 | 106–149 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 208 | 0% | 100% | |
| 209 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 210 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 211 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 212 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 213 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 214 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 215 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 216 | 0.1% | 99.3% | |
| 217 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 218 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 219 | 0.4% | 98.7% | |
| 220 | 0.6% | 98% | |
| 221 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 222 | 0.5% | 97% | |
| 223 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 224 | 6% | 96% | |
| 225 | 0.9% | 90% | |
| 226 | 2% | 89% | |
| 227 | 0.8% | 87% | |
| 228 | 0.9% | 86% | |
| 229 | 3% | 85% | |
| 230 | 2% | 82% | |
| 231 | 2% | 79% | Majority |
| 232 | 2% | 77% | |
| 233 | 4% | 75% | |
| 234 | 1.0% | 71% | |
| 235 | 1.5% | 70% | Last Result |
| 236 | 5% | 69% | |
| 237 | 3% | 64% | |
| 238 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 239 | 0.8% | 49% | |
| 240 | 3% | 48% | |
| 241 | 8% | 45% | |
| 242 | 2% | 37% | |
| 243 | 3% | 35% | |
| 244 | 5% | 31% | |
| 245 | 2% | 27% | |
| 246 | 4% | 25% | |
| 247 | 2% | 21% | |
| 248 | 3% | 19% | |
| 249 | 1.3% | 16% | |
| 250 | 0.7% | 14% | |
| 251 | 0.9% | 14% | |
| 252 | 0.3% | 13% | |
| 253 | 1.2% | 12% | |
| 254 | 2% | 11% | |
| 255 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 256 | 2% | 7% | |
| 257 | 1.3% | 6% | |
| 258 | 2% | 4% | |
| 259 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 260 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 261 | 0.1% | 1.2% | |
| 262 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 263 | 0.2% | 1.0% | |
| 264 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 265 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 266 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 267 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 268 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 269 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 270 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 271 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 272 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 273 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 274 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 275 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 276 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 277 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna – Lewica Razem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 120 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 121 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 123 | 4% | 95% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 125 | 1.1% | 91% | |
| 126 | 2% | 90% | |
| 127 | 2% | 88% | |
| 128 | 3% | 85% | |
| 129 | 2% | 82% | |
| 130 | 2% | 81% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 79% | |
| 132 | 1.1% | 78% | |
| 133 | 5% | 77% | |
| 134 | 2% | 72% | |
| 135 | 2% | 71% | |
| 136 | 4% | 68% | |
| 137 | 5% | 65% | |
| 138 | 2% | 60% | |
| 139 | 3% | 58% | |
| 140 | 2% | 55% | |
| 141 | 3% | 53% | |
| 142 | 1.1% | 50% | Median |
| 143 | 3% | 49% | |
| 144 | 4% | 45% | |
| 145 | 13% | 42% | |
| 146 | 3% | 29% | |
| 147 | 0.5% | 26% | |
| 148 | 2% | 26% | |
| 149 | 4% | 24% | |
| 150 | 5% | 20% | |
| 151 | 2% | 15% | |
| 152 | 3% | 13% | |
| 153 | 2% | 10% | |
| 154 | 2% | 8% | |
| 155 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 156 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 157 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 158 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 113 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.3% | |
| 117 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 98.9% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 98.5% | |
| 120 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 121 | 2% | 97% | |
| 122 | 0.8% | 95% | |
| 123 | 4% | 95% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 125 | 1.5% | 90% | |
| 126 | 2% | 89% | |
| 127 | 2% | 86% | |
| 128 | 3% | 84% | |
| 129 | 3% | 81% | |
| 130 | 2% | 78% | |
| 131 | 1.4% | 76% | |
| 132 | 2% | 74% | |
| 133 | 4% | 73% | |
| 134 | 2% | 68% | |
| 135 | 2% | 66% | |
| 136 | 4% | 64% | |
| 137 | 5% | 60% | |
| 138 | 2% | 56% | |
| 139 | 2% | 53% | |
| 140 | 2% | 51% | |
| 141 | 2% | 49% | |
| 142 | 1.0% | 47% | Median |
| 143 | 3% | 46% | |
| 144 | 3% | 43% | |
| 145 | 12% | 40% | |
| 146 | 3% | 28% | |
| 147 | 0.5% | 25% | |
| 148 | 2% | 24% | |
| 149 | 4% | 23% | |
| 150 | 5% | 19% | |
| 151 | 2% | 14% | |
| 152 | 3% | 12% | |
| 153 | 2% | 9% | |
| 154 | 2% | 7% | |
| 155 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 156 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 157 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 158 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 159 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 1.4% | |
| 162 | 0.1% | 1.3% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 1.2% | |
| 164 | 0.2% | 0.8% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 0.6% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 172 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0% | |
| 175 | 0% | 0% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 107 | 0% | 100% | |
| 108 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 109 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 110 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 111 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 112 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 113 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 114 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 115 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 116 | 0.2% | 99.4% | |
| 117 | 0.1% | 99.2% | |
| 118 | 0.4% | 99.1% | |
| 119 | 0.3% | 98.7% | |
| 120 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 121 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 122 | 0.7% | 96% | |
| 123 | 4% | 95% | |
| 124 | 0.2% | 91% | |
| 125 | 1.1% | 91% | |
| 126 | 2% | 90% | |
| 127 | 2% | 88% | |
| 128 | 3% | 85% | |
| 129 | 2% | 82% | |
| 130 | 2% | 81% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 79% | |
| 132 | 1.1% | 78% | |
| 133 | 5% | 77% | |
| 134 | 2% | 72% | |
| 135 | 2% | 71% | |
| 136 | 4% | 68% | |
| 137 | 5% | 65% | |
| 138 | 2% | 60% | |
| 139 | 3% | 58% | |
| 140 | 2% | 55% | |
| 141 | 3% | 53% | |
| 142 | 1.1% | 50% | Median |
| 143 | 3% | 49% | |
| 144 | 4% | 45% | |
| 145 | 13% | 42% | |
| 146 | 3% | 29% | |
| 147 | 0.5% | 26% | |
| 148 | 2% | 26% | |
| 149 | 4% | 24% | |
| 150 | 5% | 20% | |
| 151 | 2% | 15% | |
| 152 | 3% | 13% | |
| 153 | 2% | 10% | |
| 154 | 2% | 8% | |
| 155 | 0.9% | 6% | |
| 156 | 0.9% | 5% | |
| 157 | 1.0% | 4% | |
| 158 | 0.9% | 3% | |
| 159 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 160 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 161 | 0.1% | 2% | |
| 162 | 0.2% | 2% | |
| 163 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 164 | 0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 165 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 166 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 167 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 168 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 169 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 170 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 171 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 172 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 173 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 174 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 175 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 176 | 0% | 0% | |
| 177 | 0% | 0% | |
| 178 | 0% | 0% | |
| 179 | 0% | 0% | |
| 180 | 0% | 0% | |
| 181 | 0% | 0% | |
| 182 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 105 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 106 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 107 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 108 | 0.1% | 99.4% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 99.3% | |
| 110 | 0.3% | 98.8% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 98.5% | |
| 112 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 113 | 4% | 97% | |
| 114 | 1.1% | 93% | |
| 115 | 1.1% | 91% | |
| 116 | 3% | 90% | |
| 117 | 3% | 88% | |
| 118 | 2% | 85% | |
| 119 | 5% | 83% | |
| 120 | 5% | 77% | |
| 121 | 4% | 72% | |
| 122 | 2% | 68% | |
| 123 | 8% | 66% | |
| 124 | 2% | 58% | |
| 125 | 14% | 56% | Median |
| 126 | 4% | 42% | |
| 127 | 5% | 38% | |
| 128 | 7% | 33% | |
| 129 | 2% | 26% | |
| 130 | 4% | 25% | |
| 131 | 1.0% | 20% | |
| 132 | 2% | 19% | |
| 133 | 3% | 17% | |
| 134 | 1.1% | 14% | |
| 135 | 1.2% | 13% | |
| 136 | 1.4% | 12% | |
| 137 | 2% | 11% | |
| 138 | 1.4% | 9% | |
| 139 | 2% | 7% | |
| 140 | 0.8% | 5% | |
| 141 | 0.4% | 4% | |
| 142 | 0.7% | 4% | |
| 143 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 144 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 145 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 146 | 0.3% | 1.4% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 1.1% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.9% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.8% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 152 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 153 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 154 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 155 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 105 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 99.2% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 99.0% | |
| 110 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 111 | 0.2% | 98% | |
| 112 | 2% | 98% | |
| 113 | 5% | 96% | |
| 114 | 2% | 91% | |
| 115 | 3% | 89% | |
| 116 | 3% | 87% | |
| 117 | 4% | 84% | |
| 118 | 2% | 81% | |
| 119 | 5% | 78% | |
| 120 | 5% | 73% | |
| 121 | 4% | 68% | |
| 122 | 2% | 64% | |
| 123 | 8% | 61% | |
| 124 | 2% | 54% | |
| 125 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 126 | 4% | 39% | |
| 127 | 5% | 35% | |
| 128 | 6% | 31% | |
| 129 | 2% | 25% | |
| 130 | 5% | 23% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 132 | 1.5% | 17% | |
| 133 | 3% | 16% | |
| 134 | 1.1% | 13% | |
| 135 | 1.3% | 12% | |
| 136 | 2% | 10% | |
| 137 | 2% | 9% | |
| 138 | 1.1% | 7% | |
| 139 | 2% | 6% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 151 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% | |
| 159 | 0% | 0% | |
| 160 | 0% | 0% | |
| 161 | 0% | 0% | |
| 162 | 0% | 0% | |
| 163 | 0% | 0% | |
| 164 | 0% | 0% | |
| 165 | 0% | 0% | |
| 166 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Platforma Obywatelska
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0% | 100% | |
| 101 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 102 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 103 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 104 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 105 | 0.1% | 99.7% | |
| 106 | 0.2% | 99.5% | |
| 107 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 108 | 0.2% | 99.1% | |
| 109 | 0.5% | 98.8% | |
| 110 | 0.8% | 98% | |
| 111 | 0.3% | 98% | |
| 112 | 2% | 97% | |
| 113 | 5% | 96% | |
| 114 | 2% | 91% | |
| 115 | 3% | 89% | |
| 116 | 3% | 87% | |
| 117 | 4% | 84% | |
| 118 | 3% | 80% | |
| 119 | 5% | 78% | |
| 120 | 5% | 73% | |
| 121 | 4% | 68% | |
| 122 | 2% | 63% | |
| 123 | 8% | 61% | |
| 124 | 1.5% | 53% | |
| 125 | 13% | 52% | Median |
| 126 | 4% | 39% | |
| 127 | 5% | 35% | |
| 128 | 6% | 31% | |
| 129 | 2% | 24% | |
| 130 | 5% | 23% | |
| 131 | 1.2% | 18% | |
| 132 | 1.5% | 17% | |
| 133 | 3% | 15% | |
| 134 | 1.0% | 12% | |
| 135 | 1.2% | 11% | |
| 136 | 2% | 10% | |
| 137 | 2% | 9% | |
| 138 | 1.1% | 7% | Last Result |
| 139 | 2% | 5% | |
| 140 | 0.6% | 4% | |
| 141 | 0.3% | 3% | |
| 142 | 0.6% | 3% | |
| 143 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 144 | 0.4% | 1.4% | |
| 145 | 0.1% | 1.0% | |
| 146 | 0.2% | 0.9% | |
| 147 | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 148 | 0.1% | 0.6% | |
| 149 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 150 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 151 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 152 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 153 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 154 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 155 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 156 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 157 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 158 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Social Changes
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 24–29 May 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1040
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.89%