Opinion Poll by Social Changes, 31 May–5 June 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość |
37.6% |
41.5% |
39.5–43.5% |
39.0–44.0% |
38.5–44.5% |
37.6–45.5% |
Platforma Obywatelska |
24.1% |
22.4% |
20.8–24.2% |
20.4–24.7% |
20.0–25.1% |
19.3–25.9% |
Kukiz’15 |
8.8% |
9.3% |
8.2–10.5% |
7.9–10.9% |
7.7–11.2% |
7.2–11.8% |
Wiosna |
0.0% |
8.9% |
7.8–10.1% |
7.6–10.5% |
7.3–10.8% |
6.8–11.4% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe |
5.1% |
5.0% |
4.3–6.0% |
4.0–6.3% |
3.9–6.5% |
3.5–7.0% |
.Nowoczesna |
7.6% |
4.1% |
3.4–5.0% |
3.2–5.2% |
3.0–5.5% |
2.7–5.9% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej |
7.6% |
3.0% |
2.4–3.8% |
2.3–4.0% |
2.1–4.2% |
1.9–4.6% |
Lewica Razem |
3.6% |
2.2% |
1.7–2.9% |
1.6–3.1% |
1.5–3.3% |
1.3–3.7% |
KORWiN |
4.8% |
1.9% |
1.5–2.6% |
1.4–2.8% |
1.2–3.0% |
1.1–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
218 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
219 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
220 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
221 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
222 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
223 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
224 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
225 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
226 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
227 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
228 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
229 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
230 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
231 |
0.2% |
95% |
Majority |
232 |
11% |
94% |
|
233 |
0% |
84% |
|
234 |
0.1% |
84% |
|
235 |
1.0% |
84% |
Last Result |
236 |
2% |
83% |
|
237 |
0.2% |
80% |
|
238 |
0.1% |
80% |
|
239 |
0.7% |
80% |
|
240 |
5% |
79% |
|
241 |
4% |
74% |
|
242 |
0.2% |
70% |
|
243 |
0.7% |
70% |
|
244 |
0.3% |
69% |
|
245 |
0.7% |
68% |
|
246 |
6% |
68% |
|
247 |
1.4% |
62% |
|
248 |
1.5% |
60% |
|
249 |
0.4% |
59% |
|
250 |
6% |
59% |
|
251 |
0.9% |
52% |
|
252 |
9% |
52% |
Median |
253 |
1.1% |
42% |
|
254 |
2% |
41% |
|
255 |
0.9% |
39% |
|
256 |
2% |
38% |
|
257 |
12% |
36% |
|
258 |
0.2% |
24% |
|
259 |
0.2% |
24% |
|
260 |
0.4% |
24% |
|
261 |
0.3% |
23% |
|
262 |
0% |
23% |
|
263 |
2% |
23% |
|
264 |
0% |
21% |
|
265 |
0% |
21% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
21% |
|
267 |
20% |
21% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
270 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
271 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
272 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
273 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
275 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
276 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
98 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
99 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
100 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
101 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
102 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
103 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
104 |
1.0% |
99.7% |
|
105 |
0.7% |
98.7% |
|
106 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
107 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
109 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
110 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
111 |
21% |
96% |
|
112 |
1.3% |
75% |
|
113 |
1.4% |
74% |
|
114 |
6% |
73% |
|
115 |
0.2% |
67% |
|
116 |
0.1% |
67% |
|
117 |
0.5% |
67% |
|
118 |
0.7% |
66% |
|
119 |
9% |
65% |
|
120 |
18% |
56% |
Median |
121 |
2% |
39% |
|
122 |
0.8% |
37% |
|
123 |
2% |
36% |
|
124 |
0.6% |
34% |
|
125 |
2% |
34% |
|
126 |
0.7% |
32% |
|
127 |
0.3% |
31% |
|
128 |
3% |
31% |
|
129 |
0.1% |
28% |
|
130 |
11% |
27% |
|
131 |
2% |
17% |
|
132 |
0.2% |
15% |
|
133 |
7% |
15% |
|
134 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
135 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
136 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
137 |
3% |
7% |
|
138 |
2% |
4% |
Last Result |
139 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
140 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
141 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
143 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
144 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
145 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
146 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
147 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
148 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
149 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
27 |
0.9% |
99.9% |
|
28 |
0% |
98.9% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
30 |
0% |
98.8% |
|
31 |
0.1% |
98.8% |
|
32 |
0.2% |
98.7% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
35 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
36 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
37 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
38 |
0.4% |
97% |
|
39 |
10% |
96% |
|
40 |
1.0% |
87% |
|
41 |
0.6% |
86% |
|
42 |
8% |
85% |
Last Result |
43 |
7% |
77% |
|
44 |
44% |
70% |
Median |
45 |
6% |
26% |
|
46 |
5% |
20% |
|
47 |
3% |
15% |
|
48 |
7% |
12% |
|
49 |
2% |
5% |
|
50 |
3% |
3% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
52 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
53 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
54 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
55 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
56 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
57 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
58 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
62 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
63 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
Wiosna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wiosna page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0% |
100% |
|
16 |
0% |
100% |
|
17 |
0% |
100% |
|
18 |
0% |
100% |
|
19 |
0% |
100% |
|
20 |
0% |
100% |
|
21 |
0% |
100% |
|
22 |
0% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
100% |
|
24 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
27 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
29 |
1.2% |
99.3% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
31 |
3% |
98% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
95% |
|
33 |
7% |
95% |
|
34 |
4% |
88% |
|
35 |
8% |
84% |
|
36 |
3% |
76% |
|
37 |
0.6% |
73% |
|
38 |
25% |
72% |
Median |
39 |
23% |
47% |
|
40 |
11% |
24% |
|
41 |
0.8% |
13% |
|
42 |
1.4% |
12% |
|
43 |
2% |
11% |
|
44 |
4% |
9% |
|
45 |
2% |
5% |
|
46 |
2% |
3% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
48 |
0.6% |
0.9% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
52 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
65% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
35% |
|
2 |
0% |
35% |
|
3 |
0% |
35% |
|
4 |
0% |
35% |
|
5 |
0% |
35% |
|
6 |
0% |
35% |
|
7 |
0% |
35% |
|
8 |
0% |
35% |
|
9 |
0% |
35% |
|
10 |
0% |
35% |
|
11 |
0% |
35% |
|
12 |
0.5% |
35% |
|
13 |
0.9% |
34% |
|
14 |
1.5% |
33% |
|
15 |
11% |
32% |
|
16 |
3% |
20% |
Last Result |
17 |
1.0% |
17% |
|
18 |
6% |
16% |
|
19 |
1.1% |
10% |
|
20 |
5% |
9% |
|
21 |
0.5% |
4% |
|
22 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
23 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
89% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
11% |
|
2 |
0% |
11% |
|
3 |
0% |
11% |
|
4 |
0% |
11% |
|
5 |
0% |
11% |
|
6 |
0% |
11% |
|
7 |
0% |
11% |
|
8 |
0.3% |
11% |
|
9 |
0% |
11% |
|
10 |
9% |
11% |
|
11 |
2% |
2% |
|
12 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.8% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
7 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
8 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość |
235 |
252 |
95% |
232–267 |
229–267 |
227–267 |
223–275 |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – Lewica Razem |
182 |
129 |
0% |
111–145 |
111–147 |
111–151 |
105–155 |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna |
182 |
129 |
0% |
111–145 |
111–147 |
111–151 |
105–155 |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej |
182 |
129 |
0% |
111–145 |
111–147 |
111–151 |
105–155 |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna |
166 |
120 |
0% |
111–133 |
111–137 |
107–138 |
104–142 |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej |
166 |
120 |
0% |
111–133 |
111–137 |
107–138 |
104–142 |
Platforma Obywatelska |
138 |
120 |
0% |
111–133 |
111–137 |
106–138 |
104–140 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
216 |
0% |
100% |
|
217 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
218 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
219 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
220 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
221 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
222 |
0% |
99.6% |
|
223 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
224 |
0% |
99.5% |
|
225 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
226 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
227 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
228 |
0.8% |
97% |
|
229 |
0.9% |
96% |
|
230 |
0.2% |
95% |
|
231 |
0.2% |
95% |
Majority |
232 |
11% |
94% |
|
233 |
0% |
84% |
|
234 |
0.1% |
84% |
|
235 |
1.0% |
84% |
Last Result |
236 |
2% |
83% |
|
237 |
0.2% |
80% |
|
238 |
0.1% |
80% |
|
239 |
0.7% |
80% |
|
240 |
5% |
79% |
|
241 |
4% |
74% |
|
242 |
0.2% |
70% |
|
243 |
0.7% |
70% |
|
244 |
0.3% |
69% |
|
245 |
0.7% |
68% |
|
246 |
6% |
68% |
|
247 |
1.4% |
62% |
|
248 |
1.5% |
60% |
|
249 |
0.4% |
59% |
|
250 |
6% |
59% |
|
251 |
0.9% |
52% |
|
252 |
9% |
52% |
Median |
253 |
1.1% |
42% |
|
254 |
2% |
41% |
|
255 |
0.9% |
39% |
|
256 |
2% |
38% |
|
257 |
12% |
36% |
|
258 |
0.2% |
24% |
|
259 |
0.2% |
24% |
|
260 |
0.4% |
24% |
|
261 |
0.3% |
23% |
|
262 |
0% |
23% |
|
263 |
2% |
23% |
|
264 |
0% |
21% |
|
265 |
0% |
21% |
|
266 |
0.1% |
21% |
|
267 |
20% |
21% |
|
268 |
0.1% |
0.8% |
|
269 |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
270 |
0% |
0.7% |
|
271 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
272 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
273 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
274 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
275 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
276 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
277 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
105 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
106 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
108 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
109 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
110 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
111 |
20% |
99.3% |
|
112 |
0.5% |
79% |
|
113 |
0% |
79% |
|
114 |
0% |
79% |
|
115 |
0% |
79% |
|
116 |
0.1% |
79% |
|
117 |
0.1% |
79% |
|
118 |
0.1% |
78% |
|
119 |
1.0% |
78% |
|
120 |
13% |
77% |
Median |
121 |
2% |
65% |
|
122 |
0.6% |
63% |
|
123 |
1.5% |
62% |
|
124 |
0.7% |
61% |
|
125 |
2% |
60% |
|
126 |
0.6% |
58% |
|
127 |
0.2% |
58% |
|
128 |
3% |
57% |
|
129 |
9% |
55% |
|
130 |
0.4% |
46% |
|
131 |
2% |
46% |
|
132 |
6% |
44% |
|
133 |
7% |
38% |
|
134 |
0.7% |
31% |
|
135 |
0.9% |
30% |
|
136 |
2% |
29% |
|
137 |
3% |
27% |
|
138 |
1.2% |
24% |
|
139 |
0.2% |
23% |
|
140 |
6% |
23% |
|
141 |
0.3% |
17% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
17% |
|
143 |
0.3% |
17% |
|
144 |
0.8% |
16% |
|
145 |
10% |
16% |
|
146 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
147 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
148 |
1.4% |
5% |
|
149 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
150 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
151 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
152 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
153 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
154 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
155 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
157 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
158 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
160 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
161 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
162 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
163 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
164 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
165 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
|
170 |
0% |
0% |
|
171 |
0% |
0% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
174 |
0% |
0% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
176 |
0% |
0% |
|
177 |
0% |
0% |
|
178 |
0% |
0% |
|
179 |
0% |
0% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
181 |
0% |
0% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
105 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
106 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
108 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
109 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
110 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
111 |
20% |
99.3% |
|
112 |
0.5% |
79% |
|
113 |
0% |
79% |
|
114 |
0% |
79% |
|
115 |
0% |
79% |
|
116 |
0.1% |
79% |
|
117 |
0.1% |
79% |
|
118 |
0.1% |
78% |
|
119 |
1.0% |
78% |
|
120 |
13% |
77% |
Median |
121 |
2% |
65% |
|
122 |
0.6% |
63% |
|
123 |
1.5% |
62% |
|
124 |
0.7% |
61% |
|
125 |
2% |
60% |
|
126 |
0.6% |
58% |
|
127 |
0.2% |
57% |
|
128 |
3% |
57% |
|
129 |
9% |
55% |
|
130 |
0.4% |
46% |
|
131 |
2% |
45% |
|
132 |
6% |
44% |
|
133 |
7% |
38% |
|
134 |
0.7% |
31% |
|
135 |
0.9% |
30% |
|
136 |
2% |
29% |
|
137 |
3% |
27% |
|
138 |
1.2% |
24% |
|
139 |
0.1% |
23% |
|
140 |
6% |
23% |
|
141 |
0.3% |
17% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
17% |
|
143 |
0.3% |
17% |
|
144 |
0.8% |
16% |
|
145 |
10% |
16% |
|
146 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
147 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
148 |
1.4% |
5% |
|
149 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
150 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
151 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
152 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
153 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
154 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
155 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
157 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
158 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
160 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
161 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
162 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
163 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
164 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
165 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
|
170 |
0% |
0% |
|
171 |
0% |
0% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
174 |
0% |
0% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
176 |
0% |
0% |
|
177 |
0% |
0% |
|
178 |
0% |
0% |
|
179 |
0% |
0% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
181 |
0% |
0% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
105 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
106 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
108 |
0% |
99.4% |
|
109 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
110 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
111 |
20% |
99.3% |
|
112 |
0.5% |
79% |
|
113 |
0% |
79% |
|
114 |
0% |
79% |
|
115 |
0% |
79% |
|
116 |
0.1% |
79% |
|
117 |
0.1% |
79% |
|
118 |
0.1% |
78% |
|
119 |
1.0% |
78% |
|
120 |
13% |
77% |
Median |
121 |
2% |
65% |
|
122 |
0.6% |
63% |
|
123 |
1.5% |
62% |
|
124 |
0.7% |
61% |
|
125 |
2% |
60% |
|
126 |
0.6% |
58% |
|
127 |
0.2% |
58% |
|
128 |
3% |
57% |
|
129 |
9% |
55% |
|
130 |
0.4% |
46% |
|
131 |
2% |
46% |
|
132 |
6% |
44% |
|
133 |
7% |
38% |
|
134 |
0.7% |
31% |
|
135 |
0.9% |
30% |
|
136 |
2% |
29% |
|
137 |
3% |
27% |
|
138 |
1.2% |
24% |
|
139 |
0.2% |
23% |
|
140 |
6% |
23% |
|
141 |
0.3% |
17% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
17% |
|
143 |
0.3% |
17% |
|
144 |
0.8% |
16% |
|
145 |
10% |
16% |
|
146 |
0.2% |
5% |
|
147 |
0.4% |
5% |
|
148 |
1.4% |
5% |
|
149 |
0.4% |
3% |
|
150 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
151 |
0.5% |
3% |
|
152 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
153 |
0.2% |
2% |
|
154 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
155 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.5% |
|
157 |
0.1% |
0.5% |
|
158 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
160 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
161 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
162 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
163 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
164 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
165 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
|
170 |
0% |
0% |
|
171 |
0% |
0% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
174 |
0% |
0% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
176 |
0% |
0% |
|
177 |
0% |
0% |
|
178 |
0% |
0% |
|
179 |
0% |
0% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
181 |
0% |
0% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
98 |
0% |
100% |
|
99 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
100 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
101 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
102 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
103 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
104 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
105 |
0.7% |
98.8% |
|
106 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
109 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
110 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
111 |
21% |
97% |
|
112 |
0.6% |
76% |
|
113 |
1.3% |
75% |
|
114 |
6% |
74% |
|
115 |
0.1% |
68% |
|
116 |
0.1% |
68% |
|
117 |
0.5% |
68% |
|
118 |
0.2% |
67% |
|
119 |
0.7% |
67% |
|
120 |
18% |
67% |
Median |
121 |
2% |
49% |
|
122 |
1.4% |
47% |
|
123 |
2% |
45% |
|
124 |
0.5% |
44% |
|
125 |
2% |
43% |
|
126 |
0.7% |
41% |
|
127 |
0.3% |
40% |
|
128 |
3% |
40% |
|
129 |
9% |
37% |
|
130 |
11% |
28% |
|
131 |
2% |
18% |
|
132 |
0.1% |
16% |
|
133 |
7% |
16% |
|
134 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
135 |
0.4% |
9% |
|
136 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
137 |
3% |
7% |
|
138 |
2% |
4% |
|
139 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
140 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
141 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
142 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
143 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
144 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
145 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
146 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
147 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
148 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
149 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
150 |
0% |
0% |
|
151 |
0% |
0% |
|
152 |
0% |
0% |
|
153 |
0% |
0% |
|
154 |
0% |
0% |
|
155 |
0% |
0% |
|
156 |
0% |
0% |
|
157 |
0% |
0% |
|
158 |
0% |
0% |
|
159 |
0% |
0% |
|
160 |
0% |
0% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
98 |
0% |
100% |
|
99 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
100 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
101 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
102 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
103 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
104 |
0.9% |
99.7% |
|
105 |
0.7% |
98.8% |
|
106 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
107 |
0.1% |
98% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
109 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
110 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
111 |
21% |
97% |
|
112 |
0.6% |
76% |
|
113 |
1.3% |
75% |
|
114 |
6% |
74% |
|
115 |
0.1% |
68% |
|
116 |
0.1% |
68% |
|
117 |
0.5% |
68% |
|
118 |
0.2% |
67% |
|
119 |
0.7% |
67% |
|
120 |
18% |
67% |
Median |
121 |
2% |
49% |
|
122 |
1.4% |
47% |
|
123 |
2% |
45% |
|
124 |
0.5% |
44% |
|
125 |
2% |
43% |
|
126 |
0.7% |
41% |
|
127 |
0.3% |
41% |
|
128 |
3% |
40% |
|
129 |
9% |
37% |
|
130 |
11% |
28% |
|
131 |
2% |
18% |
|
132 |
0.1% |
16% |
|
133 |
7% |
16% |
|
134 |
0.2% |
9% |
|
135 |
0.4% |
9% |
|
136 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
137 |
3% |
7% |
|
138 |
2% |
4% |
|
139 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
140 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
141 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
142 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
143 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
144 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
145 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
146 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
147 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
148 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
149 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
150 |
0% |
0% |
|
151 |
0% |
0% |
|
152 |
0% |
0% |
|
153 |
0% |
0% |
|
154 |
0% |
0% |
|
155 |
0% |
0% |
|
156 |
0% |
0% |
|
157 |
0% |
0% |
|
158 |
0% |
0% |
|
159 |
0% |
0% |
|
160 |
0% |
0% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
98 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
99 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
100 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
101 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
102 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
103 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
104 |
1.0% |
99.7% |
|
105 |
0.7% |
98.7% |
|
106 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
107 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
108 |
0.1% |
97% |
|
109 |
0.2% |
97% |
|
110 |
0.5% |
97% |
|
111 |
21% |
96% |
|
112 |
1.3% |
75% |
|
113 |
1.4% |
74% |
|
114 |
6% |
73% |
|
115 |
0.2% |
67% |
|
116 |
0.1% |
67% |
|
117 |
0.5% |
67% |
|
118 |
0.7% |
66% |
|
119 |
9% |
65% |
|
120 |
18% |
56% |
Median |
121 |
2% |
39% |
|
122 |
0.8% |
37% |
|
123 |
2% |
36% |
|
124 |
0.6% |
34% |
|
125 |
2% |
34% |
|
126 |
0.7% |
32% |
|
127 |
0.3% |
31% |
|
128 |
3% |
31% |
|
129 |
0.1% |
28% |
|
130 |
11% |
27% |
|
131 |
2% |
17% |
|
132 |
0.2% |
15% |
|
133 |
7% |
15% |
|
134 |
0.1% |
8% |
|
135 |
0.4% |
8% |
|
136 |
1.0% |
8% |
|
137 |
3% |
7% |
|
138 |
2% |
4% |
Last Result |
139 |
0.1% |
2% |
|
140 |
1.0% |
1.4% |
|
141 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
142 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
143 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
144 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
145 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
146 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
147 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
148 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
149 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Social Changes
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 31 May–5 June 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1034
- Simulations done: 131,072
- Error estimate: 1.01%