Opinion Poll by CBOS, 6–13 June 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość |
37.6% |
49.3% |
47.4–51.3% |
46.9–51.8% |
46.4–52.3% |
45.5–53.2% |
Platforma Obywatelska |
24.1% |
24.7% |
23.1–26.4% |
22.6–26.9% |
22.2–27.3% |
21.5–28.1% |
Wiosna |
0.0% |
7.8% |
6.9–8.9% |
6.6–9.3% |
6.4–9.5% |
5.9–10.1% |
Kukiz’15 |
8.8% |
4.5% |
3.8–5.4% |
3.6–5.6% |
3.4–5.9% |
3.1–6.3% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe |
5.1% |
3.3% |
2.7–4.1% |
2.5–4.3% |
2.4–4.5% |
2.1–5.0% |
KORWiN |
4.8% |
3.3% |
2.7–4.1% |
2.5–4.3% |
2.4–4.5% |
2.1–5.0% |
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej |
7.6% |
2.2% |
1.8–2.9% |
1.6–3.1% |
1.5–3.3% |
1.3–3.7% |
.Nowoczesna |
7.6% |
1.1% |
0.8–1.6% |
0.7–1.7% |
0.6–1.9% |
0.5–2.2% |
Lewica Razem |
3.6% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.6% |
0.1–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.0–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
235 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
264 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
265 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
266 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
267 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
268 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
269 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
272 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
273 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
274 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
275 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
|
276 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
277 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
278 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
279 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
280 |
0.8% |
95% |
|
281 |
2% |
95% |
|
282 |
1.1% |
92% |
|
283 |
3% |
91% |
|
284 |
7% |
88% |
|
285 |
3% |
82% |
|
286 |
3% |
78% |
|
287 |
2% |
75% |
|
288 |
13% |
73% |
|
289 |
2% |
60% |
|
290 |
3% |
58% |
|
291 |
7% |
55% |
Median |
292 |
11% |
48% |
|
293 |
17% |
37% |
|
294 |
3% |
21% |
|
295 |
0.7% |
18% |
|
296 |
3% |
18% |
|
297 |
1.1% |
15% |
|
298 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
299 |
3% |
13% |
|
300 |
1.3% |
10% |
|
301 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
302 |
2% |
8% |
|
303 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
304 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
305 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
306 |
0% |
4% |
|
307 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
309 |
0% |
3% |
|
310 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
311 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
312 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
313 |
0.7% |
1.4% |
|
314 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
315 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
316 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
317 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
318 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
319 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
320 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
321 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
322 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
110 |
0% |
100% |
|
111 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
112 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
113 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
114 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
115 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
116 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
117 |
0.5% |
98.9% |
|
118 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
119 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
120 |
2% |
98% |
|
121 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
122 |
1.5% |
96% |
|
123 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
124 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
125 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
126 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
127 |
3% |
92% |
|
128 |
3% |
88% |
|
129 |
5% |
86% |
|
130 |
1.1% |
81% |
|
131 |
4% |
80% |
|
132 |
1.4% |
76% |
|
133 |
1.2% |
75% |
|
134 |
5% |
73% |
|
135 |
4% |
68% |
|
136 |
7% |
64% |
|
137 |
5% |
57% |
|
138 |
1.2% |
52% |
Last Result |
139 |
19% |
51% |
Median |
140 |
10% |
32% |
|
141 |
3% |
22% |
|
142 |
8% |
19% |
|
143 |
2% |
11% |
|
144 |
2% |
9% |
|
145 |
3% |
8% |
|
146 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
147 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
148 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
149 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
150 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
152 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
153 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
154 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
157 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
160 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
Wiosna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Wiosna page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
15 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
16 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
18 |
0.1% |
99.6% |
|
19 |
0.6% |
99.5% |
|
20 |
0.1% |
98.9% |
|
21 |
0.9% |
98.8% |
|
22 |
0.2% |
98% |
|
23 |
0.7% |
98% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
97% |
|
25 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
26 |
0.4% |
95% |
|
27 |
4% |
95% |
|
28 |
21% |
91% |
|
29 |
17% |
70% |
|
30 |
9% |
53% |
Median |
31 |
2% |
43% |
|
32 |
9% |
41% |
|
33 |
4% |
32% |
|
34 |
2% |
28% |
|
35 |
3% |
26% |
|
36 |
9% |
22% |
|
37 |
0.8% |
13% |
|
38 |
0.4% |
12% |
|
39 |
7% |
12% |
|
40 |
2% |
5% |
|
41 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
42 |
0.6% |
2% |
|
43 |
0.6% |
1.3% |
|
44 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
45 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
46 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kukiz’15
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kukiz’15 page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
75% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
25% |
|
2 |
0% |
25% |
|
3 |
8% |
25% |
|
4 |
1.0% |
17% |
|
5 |
2% |
16% |
|
6 |
2% |
14% |
|
7 |
2% |
12% |
|
8 |
2% |
10% |
|
9 |
4% |
9% |
|
10 |
3% |
5% |
|
11 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
12 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
13 |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
14 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
16 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
17 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
18 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
19 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
20 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
21 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
|
29 |
0% |
0% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
32 |
0% |
0% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
40 |
0% |
0% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.4% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
4 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
6 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
7 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
8 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
9 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
10 |
0% |
0.6% |
|
11 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
12 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
13 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
14 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
15 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0.1% |
Last Result |
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
KORWiN
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KORWiN page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
99.8% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
1 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
2 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
3 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
4 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
5 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
6 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
7 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
8 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
.Nowoczesna
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
25 |
0% |
0% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
28 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Lewica Razem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość |
235 |
291 |
100% |
283–300 |
280–304 |
277–311 |
269–314 |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna – Lewica Razem |
182 |
139 |
0% |
127–143 |
122–146 |
120–148 |
114–155 |
Platforma Obywatelska – .Nowoczesna |
166 |
139 |
0% |
127–143 |
122–145 |
120–148 |
114–153 |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – .Nowoczesna |
182 |
139 |
0% |
127–143 |
122–146 |
120–148 |
114–155 |
Platforma Obywatelska – Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna |
182 |
139 |
0% |
127–143 |
122–146 |
120–148 |
114–155 |
Platforma Obywatelska – Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej – .Nowoczesna |
166 |
139 |
0% |
127–143 |
122–145 |
120–148 |
114–153 |
Platforma Obywatelska |
138 |
139 |
0% |
127–143 |
122–145 |
120–148 |
114–153 |
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
235 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
236 |
0% |
100% |
|
237 |
0% |
100% |
|
238 |
0% |
100% |
|
239 |
0% |
100% |
|
240 |
0% |
100% |
|
241 |
0% |
100% |
|
242 |
0% |
100% |
|
243 |
0% |
100% |
|
244 |
0% |
100% |
|
245 |
0% |
100% |
|
246 |
0% |
100% |
|
247 |
0% |
100% |
|
248 |
0% |
100% |
|
249 |
0% |
100% |
|
250 |
0% |
100% |
|
251 |
0% |
100% |
|
252 |
0% |
100% |
|
253 |
0% |
100% |
|
254 |
0% |
100% |
|
255 |
0% |
100% |
|
256 |
0% |
100% |
|
257 |
0% |
100% |
|
258 |
0% |
100% |
|
259 |
0% |
100% |
|
260 |
0% |
100% |
|
261 |
0% |
100% |
|
262 |
0% |
100% |
|
263 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
264 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
265 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
266 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
267 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
268 |
0% |
99.7% |
|
269 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
270 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
271 |
0.1% |
99.4% |
|
272 |
0% |
99.3% |
|
273 |
0.3% |
99.2% |
|
274 |
0.3% |
98.9% |
|
275 |
0.5% |
98.6% |
|
276 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
277 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
278 |
0.3% |
97% |
|
279 |
1.0% |
96% |
|
280 |
0.8% |
95% |
|
281 |
2% |
95% |
|
282 |
1.1% |
92% |
|
283 |
3% |
91% |
|
284 |
7% |
88% |
|
285 |
3% |
82% |
|
286 |
3% |
78% |
|
287 |
2% |
75% |
|
288 |
13% |
73% |
|
289 |
2% |
60% |
|
290 |
3% |
58% |
|
291 |
7% |
55% |
Median |
292 |
11% |
48% |
|
293 |
17% |
37% |
|
294 |
3% |
21% |
|
295 |
0.7% |
18% |
|
296 |
3% |
18% |
|
297 |
1.1% |
15% |
|
298 |
1.0% |
14% |
|
299 |
3% |
13% |
|
300 |
1.3% |
10% |
|
301 |
0.8% |
9% |
|
302 |
2% |
8% |
|
303 |
0.3% |
5% |
|
304 |
0.5% |
5% |
|
305 |
0.6% |
5% |
|
306 |
0% |
4% |
|
307 |
0.6% |
4% |
|
308 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
309 |
0% |
3% |
|
310 |
0.1% |
3% |
|
311 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
312 |
0.3% |
2% |
|
313 |
0.7% |
1.4% |
|
314 |
0.3% |
0.7% |
|
315 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
316 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
317 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
318 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
319 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
320 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
321 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
322 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
323 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
110 |
0% |
100% |
|
111 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
112 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
113 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
114 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
115 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
116 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
117 |
0.5% |
98.9% |
|
118 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
119 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
120 |
2% |
98% |
|
121 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
122 |
1.5% |
96% |
|
123 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
124 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
125 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
126 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
127 |
3% |
92% |
|
128 |
3% |
88% |
|
129 |
5% |
86% |
|
130 |
1.1% |
81% |
|
131 |
4% |
80% |
|
132 |
1.4% |
76% |
|
133 |
1.2% |
75% |
|
134 |
5% |
74% |
|
135 |
4% |
69% |
|
136 |
7% |
65% |
|
137 |
5% |
57% |
|
138 |
1.1% |
52% |
|
139 |
19% |
51% |
Median |
140 |
10% |
33% |
|
141 |
3% |
22% |
|
142 |
8% |
19% |
|
143 |
2% |
12% |
|
144 |
2% |
10% |
|
145 |
3% |
8% |
|
146 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
147 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
148 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
149 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
150 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
152 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
153 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
154 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
157 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
160 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
|
170 |
0% |
0% |
|
171 |
0% |
0% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
174 |
0% |
0% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
176 |
0% |
0% |
|
177 |
0% |
0% |
|
178 |
0% |
0% |
|
179 |
0% |
0% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
181 |
0% |
0% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
110 |
0% |
100% |
|
111 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
112 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
113 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
114 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
115 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
116 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
117 |
0.5% |
98.9% |
|
118 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
119 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
120 |
2% |
98% |
|
121 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
122 |
1.5% |
96% |
|
123 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
124 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
125 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
126 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
127 |
3% |
92% |
|
128 |
3% |
88% |
|
129 |
5% |
86% |
|
130 |
1.1% |
81% |
|
131 |
4% |
80% |
|
132 |
1.4% |
76% |
|
133 |
1.2% |
75% |
|
134 |
5% |
73% |
|
135 |
4% |
68% |
|
136 |
7% |
64% |
|
137 |
5% |
57% |
|
138 |
1.2% |
52% |
|
139 |
19% |
51% |
Median |
140 |
10% |
32% |
|
141 |
3% |
22% |
|
142 |
8% |
19% |
|
143 |
2% |
11% |
|
144 |
2% |
9% |
|
145 |
3% |
8% |
|
146 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
147 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
148 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
149 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
150 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
152 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
153 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
154 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
157 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
160 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
110 |
0% |
100% |
|
111 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
112 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
113 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
114 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
115 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
116 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
117 |
0.5% |
98.9% |
|
118 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
119 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
120 |
2% |
98% |
|
121 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
122 |
1.5% |
96% |
|
123 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
124 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
125 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
126 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
127 |
3% |
92% |
|
128 |
3% |
88% |
|
129 |
5% |
86% |
|
130 |
1.1% |
81% |
|
131 |
4% |
80% |
|
132 |
1.4% |
76% |
|
133 |
1.2% |
75% |
|
134 |
5% |
74% |
|
135 |
4% |
69% |
|
136 |
7% |
65% |
|
137 |
5% |
57% |
|
138 |
1.1% |
52% |
|
139 |
19% |
51% |
Median |
140 |
10% |
33% |
|
141 |
3% |
22% |
|
142 |
8% |
19% |
|
143 |
2% |
12% |
|
144 |
2% |
10% |
|
145 |
3% |
8% |
|
146 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
147 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
148 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
149 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
150 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
152 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
153 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
154 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
157 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
160 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
|
170 |
0% |
0% |
|
171 |
0% |
0% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
174 |
0% |
0% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
176 |
0% |
0% |
|
177 |
0% |
0% |
|
178 |
0% |
0% |
|
179 |
0% |
0% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
181 |
0% |
0% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
110 |
0% |
100% |
|
111 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
112 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
113 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
114 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
115 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
116 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
117 |
0.5% |
98.9% |
|
118 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
119 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
120 |
2% |
98% |
|
121 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
122 |
1.5% |
96% |
|
123 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
124 |
0.4% |
94% |
|
125 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
126 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
127 |
3% |
92% |
|
128 |
3% |
88% |
|
129 |
5% |
86% |
|
130 |
1.1% |
81% |
|
131 |
4% |
80% |
|
132 |
1.4% |
76% |
|
133 |
1.2% |
75% |
|
134 |
5% |
74% |
|
135 |
4% |
69% |
|
136 |
7% |
65% |
|
137 |
5% |
57% |
|
138 |
1.1% |
52% |
|
139 |
19% |
51% |
Median |
140 |
10% |
33% |
|
141 |
3% |
22% |
|
142 |
8% |
19% |
|
143 |
2% |
12% |
|
144 |
2% |
10% |
|
145 |
3% |
8% |
|
146 |
0.8% |
5% |
|
147 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
148 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
149 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
150 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
1.2% |
|
152 |
0.2% |
1.1% |
|
153 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
154 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
157 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
160 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
|
167 |
0% |
0% |
|
168 |
0% |
0% |
|
169 |
0% |
0% |
|
170 |
0% |
0% |
|
171 |
0% |
0% |
|
172 |
0% |
0% |
|
173 |
0% |
0% |
|
174 |
0% |
0% |
|
175 |
0% |
0% |
|
176 |
0% |
0% |
|
177 |
0% |
0% |
|
178 |
0% |
0% |
|
179 |
0% |
0% |
|
180 |
0% |
0% |
|
181 |
0% |
0% |
|
182 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
110 |
0% |
100% |
|
111 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
112 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
113 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
114 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
115 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
116 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
117 |
0.5% |
98.9% |
|
118 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
119 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
120 |
2% |
98% |
|
121 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
122 |
1.5% |
96% |
|
123 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
124 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
125 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
126 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
127 |
3% |
92% |
|
128 |
3% |
88% |
|
129 |
5% |
86% |
|
130 |
1.1% |
81% |
|
131 |
4% |
80% |
|
132 |
1.4% |
76% |
|
133 |
1.2% |
75% |
|
134 |
5% |
73% |
|
135 |
4% |
68% |
|
136 |
7% |
64% |
|
137 |
5% |
57% |
|
138 |
1.2% |
52% |
|
139 |
19% |
51% |
Median |
140 |
10% |
32% |
|
141 |
3% |
22% |
|
142 |
8% |
19% |
|
143 |
2% |
11% |
|
144 |
2% |
9% |
|
145 |
3% |
8% |
|
146 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
147 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
148 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
149 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
150 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
152 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
153 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
154 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
157 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
160 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
162 |
0% |
0% |
|
163 |
0% |
0% |
|
164 |
0% |
0% |
|
165 |
0% |
0% |
|
166 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
110 |
0% |
100% |
|
111 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
112 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
113 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
114 |
0.6% |
99.7% |
|
115 |
0.2% |
99.2% |
|
116 |
0.1% |
99.0% |
|
117 |
0.5% |
98.9% |
|
118 |
0.4% |
98% |
|
119 |
0.3% |
98% |
|
120 |
2% |
98% |
|
121 |
0.1% |
96% |
|
122 |
1.5% |
96% |
|
123 |
0.6% |
94% |
|
124 |
0.4% |
93% |
|
125 |
0.9% |
93% |
|
126 |
0.6% |
92% |
|
127 |
3% |
92% |
|
128 |
3% |
88% |
|
129 |
5% |
86% |
|
130 |
1.1% |
81% |
|
131 |
4% |
80% |
|
132 |
1.4% |
76% |
|
133 |
1.2% |
75% |
|
134 |
5% |
73% |
|
135 |
4% |
68% |
|
136 |
7% |
64% |
|
137 |
5% |
57% |
|
138 |
1.2% |
52% |
Last Result |
139 |
19% |
51% |
Median |
140 |
10% |
32% |
|
141 |
3% |
22% |
|
142 |
8% |
19% |
|
143 |
2% |
11% |
|
144 |
2% |
9% |
|
145 |
3% |
8% |
|
146 |
0.9% |
5% |
|
147 |
1.2% |
4% |
|
148 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
149 |
0.4% |
2% |
|
150 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
151 |
0.1% |
0.9% |
|
152 |
0% |
0.8% |
|
153 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
154 |
0% |
0.4% |
|
155 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
156 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
157 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
158 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
159 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
160 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
161 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: CBOS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 6–13 June 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1115
- Simulations done: 524,288
- Error estimate: 2.21%